Political Note #521 Where we stand on saving the Republic Third Update

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November 6^th, 2022           Political Note #521 Democrats who will save the Republic Third Update

2022                                         General Election

KEEPING THE UNITED STATES SENATE DEMOCRATIC

Red = October 31 First Update.

Green = November 3 Second Update

Blue – November 6 Third Update

Democrats are also looking forward to election day with a measure of hope. Could Democrats defy the polls and keep their majority in the Senate and the House.

Democrats are looking forward to election day with dread.  Could the election results find Republicans swamping Democrats, taking an enormous number of seats?

The Senate

Here is what Democrats dread

Four incumbent Democratic Senators have been considered vulnerable.

NH      Inc Maggie Hassan v. Donald Bolduc

GA      Inc Raphael Warnock v Herschel Walker

AZ       Inc Mark Kelly v Blake Masters

NV      Inc Catherine Cortez Masto v Adam Laxalt

Two more incumbent Democratic Senators could conceivably lose

CO      Inc Michael Bennet v Joe O’Dea

WA     Inc Patty Murray v Tiffany Smiley

If all six were to lose, that would create a Senate of 56 Republicans, 44 Democrats.

Here is what Democrats hope for.  All six incumbents mentioned above keep their seats.  A flock of Democrats (and one independent) defeat incumbent Republicans

PA      John Fetterman v Mehmut Oz

NC      Cheri Beasley v Ted Budd

OH      Tim Ryan v JD Vance

NC      Mandela Barnes v Inc Ron Johnson

Four more (even more than that actually) have aspirations.

FL       Val Deming v Inc Marco Rubio

IN        Tom McDermott v Inc Todd Young

IA        Mike Franken v Inc Charles Grassley

UT      Ind Evan McMullen v Inc Mike Lee

If all Democratic incumbents keep their seats and, in the unlikely event that all eight of these Democrats flip Republican Senate seats, that would create a Senate of 58 Democrats, 42 Republicans. It is not implausible that all the Democratic incumbents win and the four major challengers win.  That would create a Senate of 54 Democrats and 46 Republicans.

The most likely result – somewhere between 51 Democrats and 51 Republicans.

The House

The House is more complicated.  Wikipedia identifies nine websites that consider candidates’ prospects and the likelihood of candidates being elected.   Their predictions of these websites differ. One extreme: RealClearPolitics projects 230 Republicans being elected with 36 toss ups outstanding. On the other hand: The Economist projects 209 Republicans being elected, 210 Democrats being elected, still has 16 toss up seats which would decide the party that controls the House of Representatives.

Look at their choices.  See what makes sense in the context of 538’s predictions, which are close to the middle, though slightly more optimistic for Democrats than average.

Consider the House of Representatives

Look at this chart.  Make sense of it. Use it however you would like.

After looking at 538’s Classic Model and the Economist I projected a Republican majority in the House of 220 to 213 with two seats that were so uncertain they were still toss ups.  Give last minute, turnout money to those candidates who have a chance to get the Democrats to 218 or beyond.  Here they are:

AK AL           Mary Peltola                       The Economist sees this seat as Leaning Democratic, 538 Classic sees it as a toss up, 538 Deluxe sees it as Leaning Republican. We all benefit if Alaska has a Democrat in office.

CT 05             Jahana Hayes                    The Economist sees this seat as  does 538’s Deluxe model.  The Classic model sees the seat as Leaning Democratic. Reelect this former national Teacher of the Year.

IA 03              Ciindy Axne                       The Economist sees this seat as a toss up.  Both 538 models see it as Leaning Republican, but not leaning too far.  Cindy Axne has a reputation for sharp elbows. Keep those elbows in Congress

ME 02            Jared Golden                     The Economist and 538’s Deluxe model see this seat as a toss up.  538’s model sees it as leading Democratic.  Give the good people of Maine a nudge to keep Golden.

MD 06            David Trone                       The Economist and 538’s Deluxe model see this seat as a toss up.  538’s model sees it as leading Democratic. David Trone has the resources to help himself, but you can help him, too.

NV 01            Dina Titus                           Of the four analyses above only 538’s Deluxe model does not see this race as a toss up.  The Deluxe model sees it as Leaning Republican. Snatch it back to the Democratic side.

NH 01            Chris Pappas                     The analyses of this race includes one that sees it as a pure 50-50 chance. Tip Pappas to the Democrats.

NY 17             Sean Patrick Maloney    He gets a Lean D, a Lean R, and a toss up.  Turn that toss up into a Democratic win. It would be a shame to have the DCCC chair lose.

NY 19             Josh Riley                           The Economist, the Deluxe model, the Classic model all see this race as a toss up.  Help elect Al Franken’s favorite Candidate for Congress.

NY 22             Francis Conole                 The Economist says this is a toss up as does the Deluxe model.  The Classic model says this seat is Likely to go Republican.  Let’s not let that happen.

NC 13            Wiley Nickel                       The Economist says this is a toss up as does the Deluxe model.  The Classic model says this seat is Likely to go Republican.  Do not let North Carolina elect Bo Hines, a football player who thinks Donald Trump is his coach.

PA 07             Susan Wild                         She starts her ads saying, if you are going to give to one Democrat, this is the one.  Both the Economist and the Classic Model see this race as a toss up.  The Deluxe Model sees it as Lean Republican. Help keep this woman who made it to Congress based on her integrity.

PA 08             Matt Cartwright                 First elected in 2012, this may be Cartwright’s toughest race.  He made his start with a radio program where he answered questions about the law lucidly.  His clarity is useful for us all.

PA 17             Chris Deluzio                     Just about everyone thinks this race is a toss up.  He is a cybersecurity expert but probably does not know either whether the race will turn out to be a win.  It might be one of those races with a winner by 20 votes or so.  Don’t let it get away.

RI 02              Seth Magaziner                 The Economist thinks this is a toss up as does both versions of 538. My sister thinks it is a toss up. Why quote her? Because the Republican is the former mayor of our home town.  Elect this son of a Bill Clinton advisor who adopted Rhode Island as his home state.

TX 15             Michelle Vallejo                She gets a Lean D, a Lean R, and a toss up.  Confusing because she is a young activist who won the primary with just a few votes. She is tremendously appealing. The people who frequent her family’s flea market will miss her if she goes to Washington.

TX 34             Vicente Gonzalez             Everybody but the Economist thinks this is a toss up.  A business oriented South Texas Member of Congress who switched to a friendlier district after redistricting now needs your help.

VA 02            Elaine Luria                        Is Congress the place for a nice Jewish girl from the South? Before she was in Congress, she was a Commander in the Navy.  Don’t rule her out. She is tough to defeat.

Can I expect you to provide last minute support to 18 Congressional Candidates?  Probably not. Choose ten. Give $10 each.  Or give $100 each from among these 18.  From the 10 you pick, there is the making of the four or five Congressional wins Democrats need to get to 218 and a majority.

Don’t forget the Senate. Unlike the House, it will not be a surprise if the Democrats keep a majority in the Senate.

 Incumbents Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are in races for our lives. Keep them in the Senate.

Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman is still leading in the polls and the projections. Not by as much as he was once leading.  In Republican leaning Ohio,

Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan has been pummeling author and Trump follower (he was a Trump critic before he became enamored of him) JD Vance.  He could do some pummeling at the polls.

Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes has been losing his lead as result of what the New York Times has called race baiting.  It is not clear that the incumbent Republican Ron Johnson has the fewest scruples in the Senate.  If there were a competition to count Senatorial scruples, he could not claim to have a lot of them.

If this were a horse race, you could imagine the announcer shouting that former North Carolina State Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is charging to the front from the outside.  Recent polls suggest this race could be as close as her race to be reelected to North Carolina’s Supreme Court.  She lost that one by 401 votes.  Last minute donations could generate enough votes so that she is on the winning side this time.

With your last minute donations, Democrats could keep the Senate and the House.