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October 31st , 2022 Political Note #519 Democrats who will save the Republic II
2022 General Election
KEEPING THE UNITED STATES SENATE DEMOCRATIC
Red = October 31 Update.
I will do additional updates until the election.
I had hope that the Republican surge would peak and I think it has. (Most of the figures below in red are a point or two higher than they were a day or two ago even if they are the same as in the October 28th report.) Whether the Republican surge has passed its peak early enough to allow a Democratic surge to carry us through to the election and preserve the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate – I don’t know.
I have included 538’s most recent probability projection for each candidate and the most recent poll available through that website. You should be cautious about polls – especially now. Polls are a kind of weapon of the political war – encourage the troops, discourage those of your opponent.
There are Democratic candidates for whom resources will make a difference. The national Democratic organizations have a pretty good idea who those candidates are. I hope that, through reading Len’s Political Notes, you have a pretty good idea as well. Help those candidates and/or the national organizations. This is an important election.
THE US SENATE
Protect Democratic Seats that could be flipped
- Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto
- According to 538, she wins 48 48 out of 100 times.
- A provisionally rated B/C poll by Echelon Insights and anonymously funded reported on Oct 26th that Cortez Masto and Laxalt were tied 45-45
- Georgia Raphael Warnock
- According to 538, he wins 50 47 out of 100 times
- A media funded B rated Inside Advantage poll reported on Oct 27th that Warnock was behind Walker 45-48
- Arizona Mark Kelly
- According to 538, he wins 74 70 out of 100 times
- A media funded poll by B rated Insider Advantage reported on Oct 25th that Kelly was ahead of Masters 45-43
- New Hampshire Maggie Hassan
- According to 538, she wins 78 78 out of 100 times
- A provisionally rated B/C poll by co/efficient and anonymously funded reported on Oct 26ththat Hassan was tied with Bolduc 45-45
Flip Republican Seats
- Pennsylvania John Fetterman
- According to 538, he wins 60 58 out of 100 times
- A provisionally rated B/C poll by co/efficient and anonymously funded reported on Oct 28ththat Fetterman was behind Oz 45-48.
- Wisconsin Mandela Barnes
- According to 538, he wins 24 24 out of 100 times
- Barnes funded B/C rated poll reported on Oct 11th that Barnes was leading 48-47
- Ohio Tim Ryan
- According to 538, he wins 23 23 out of 100 times
- Democratic funded unrated Center Street PAC poll reported on Oct 26th that Ryan was ahead of Vance 47-42.
- Reported pollster B+ rated Cygnal reported on Oct 26th that Ryan was behind Vance 44-49.
- North Carolina Cheri Beasley
- According to 538, she wins 23 23 out of 100 times
- Republican funded, B+ rated Republican oriented polling company reported on Oct 22ndthat Beasley was behind Budd 43-47
The media reaction to John Fetterman’s handling of his auditory processing has eroded some of his support. (I point to the media because, it seems to me, on substance, Fetterman had a pretty good debate.) If Fetterman wins in Pennsylvania, and that is still the probability, Democrats can keep control of the Senate even if either Catherine Cortez Masto loses in Nevada or if Raphael Warnock loses in Georgia. If Fetterman does not win in Pennsylvania, Democrats cannot afford to lose either Nevada or Georgia.
Give money to all eight of these candidates.
You might consider focusing on Fetterman, Cortez Masto, and Warnock. You certainly could support incumbents Mark Kelly (AZ) and Maggie Hassan (NH) and Democratic candidates Mandel Barnes (WI), Tim Ryan (OH), and Cheri Beasley (NC). If you want to try less probable candidates each of whom seems to have some momentum consider Utah’s independent candidate Evan McMullin (6 5 of 100), Florida’s Val Demings (7), Iowa’s Mike Franken (3 5 of 100), Indiana’s Tom McDermott (3 3 of 100)
KEEPING THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MAJORITY DEMOCRATIC
Here is how I made my calculations. Updated figures are in red. The Cook Political Report projected 191 Democratic wins and 211 Republican wins.
The Cook Political Report projected 33 toss ups. Of those 24 23 are currently seats held by Democrats; 9 10 are seats currently held by Republicans
An examination of 538’s projection for those 33 toss up seats yields the following probabilities
Democrats retain 21 of the 24 20 of the 23 seats they hold.
Republicans retain 8 of the 9 9 of the 10 seats they hold.
Democrats: 191+20+1= 212
Republicans: 211+3+9= 223
One of the Democratic held seats among Cook’s Likely Rs is currently projected to go D. Subtract one R and add one D.
Based on these numbers, the projected result would be
Republicans. 222 Seats 222 Seats
Democrats. 213 Seats 213 Seats
Can the Democrats take 5 or more of the seats Republicans are likely to win and protect all of the seats Democrats are likely to win?
Here are seats projected as Republican wins (including selecting from toss ups) from which Democrats have to win four seats. This includes updated projections and the most recent poll for each contest.
- PA 07 Incumbent Susan Wild
- According to 538, she wins 49 49 times out of 100 chances
- Media funded B+ rated poll reported on Oct 14th that Incumbent Wild led Businesswoman Lisa Scheller 47-46
- OR 05 Jamie McLeod-Skinner
- According to 538, she wins 47 47 times out of 100 chances
- Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on Sept 8th that County Service District Board Member Jamie McLeod-Skinner led former Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer 41-38 for this Open Democratic seat
- CA 22 Rudy Salas
- According to 538, he wins 43 43 times out of 100 chances
- Republican oriented organization funded B- rated poll reported on August 5th that Assemblyman Rudy Salas led incumbent David Valadeo 39-34
- IA 03 Cindy Axne
- According to 538, she wins 39 39 times out of 100 chances
- A B/C rated poll funded by Axne’s opponent Zach Nunn reported on September 25th that Axne was behind 44-46.
- CA 37 Christy Smith
- According to 538, she wins 37 37 times out of 100 chances
- Smith funded B/C rated poll reported on October 6th that Smith led 47-41
- AZ 02 Tom O’Halleran
- According to 538, he wins 35 35 times out of 100 chances
- An Eli Crane (the Republican candidate) funded B/C rated poll reported on August 15ththat O’Halleran was behind 44-45
- NJ 07 Tom Malinowski
- According to 538, he wins 29 29 times out of 100 chances
- A Malinowski funded B rated poll reported on September 26th that Incumbent Malinowski and former Assemblyman Thomas Kean, Jr. were tied at 48 each.
- NY 22 Francis Conole
- According to 538, he wins 24 25 times in 100 chances
- A Conole funded B/C rated poll reported on October 27th that former Defense Secretary security advisor and Naval Reserve Commander Francis Conole was leading Technology consultant and navy veteran Brandon Williams 45-43
- NY 01 Bridget Fleming
- According to 538, she wins 24 24 times out of 100 chances
- There are no recent polls
- NC 13 Wiley Nickel
- According to 538, he wins 24 24 times out of 100 chances
- A Conservative Foundation A rated poll reported on October 24th that State Senator Wiley Nickel led ex football player B Hines 44-43
- MI 10 Carl Marlinga
- According to 538, he wins 23 22 times in 100 chances
- A Marlinga funded C/D rated poll reported on October 18th that Judge Carl Marlinga led Business executive John James 44-42
- CA 45 Jay Chen (20)
- According to 538, he wins 20 20 times out of 100 chances
- There are no recent polls.
In addition, there are seats projected as Democratic wins (including selections from among the toss ups) which Democrats have to protect.
- AK AL Mary Peltola
- According to 538, she wins 50 50 times in 100 chances
- Anonymously funded B/C rated poll reported on Oct 22nd that Native American and Alaskan Regional Official Mary Peltola led Sara Palin among the top 4 49-26 and led Businessman Nick Begich III in a 2 person race 55-44
- VA 02 Elaine Luria
- According to 538, she wins 52 52 times in 100 chances
- University funded A/B rated poll reported on Oct 18th that Incumbent Elaine Luria and State Senator Jen Kiggans were tied 45-45
- TX 34 Vicente Gonzalez
- According to 538, he wins 52 52 times in 100 chances
- Republican oriented organization funded B- poll reported on August 1st that Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez led Incumbent Mayra Flores 47-43
- TX 15 Michelle Vallejo
- According to 538, she wins 53 54 times in 100 chances
- Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on October 14th that Vallejo and De La Cruz-Hernandez were tied at 45-45.
- RI 02 Seth Magaziner
- According to 538, he wins 57 56 times out of 100 chances
- Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on October 24th that State Treasurer Seth Magaziner was tied with former mayor Allan Fung 48-48
- NY 19 Josh Riley
- According to 538, he wins 57 56 times out of 100 chances
- Media funded A rated poll reported on September 28th that Josh Riley led Marcus Molinaro 46-41
- PA 17 Chris Deluzio
- According to 538, he wins 59 59 times out of 100 chances.
- Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on September 20th that Chris Deluzio led Jeremy Shaffer 49-42
Who to support financially now?
It does appear as if the Republicans have peaked. Almost every Democratic probability or winning marked in red is a point higher than it was a day or two earlier. Whether the Democrats regaining some momentum is enough to prevent Republicans from gaining a majority in the House is a different story. As I noted above, my analysis suggests a Republican majority of 222 seats to 213 seats. Five projected Democratic losses turned into victories plus protection of endangered Democrats would do it.
Which Democrats are the most likely to surprise us? Those whose current probability of winning is as close to 51% as possible:
- Incumbent Susan Wild (PA 07) 49% probability
- Activist Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR 05) 47% probability
- Assemblyman Rudy Salas (CA 22) 43% probability
- Incumbent Cindy Axne (IA 03) 39% probability
- Former School Board Chair Christy Smith (CA 27) 37% probability
Don’t stop there unless you are sure that you have a very strong magic want that will ensure a victory. Otherwise, you should consider the following who have a decent chance to surprise (20% probability or more) Incumbent Tom O’Halleran (AZ 02), Incumbent Tom Malinowski (NJ 07), County Legislator Bridget Fleming (NY 01), State Senator (NC 13), former. Policy Advisor to the Secretary of Defense Francis Conole (NY 22), Judge Carl Marlinga (MI 10), and Activist Jay Chen (CA 45).
Don’t stop there either. There are Democrats who have an edge, but a narrow one. They need your support, too.
- Incumbent Mary Peltola (AK AL) 50% probability
- Incumbent Elaine Luria (VA 02) 52% probability
- Incumbent (of TX 15) Vicente Gonzalez (TX 34) 52% probability
- Activist Michelle Vallejo (TX 15) 54% probability
Three more candidates have probabilities of winning between 56 and 59% — State Treasurer Seth Magaziner (RI 02), Attorney Josh Riley (NY 19), and cybersecurity expert Chris Deluzio.
KEEPING AS MANY DEMOCRATIC GOVERNORS AS POSSIBLE AND GAINING WHERE WE CAN.
Democrats in danger of being flipped
- Oregon Tina Kotek
- According to 538, she wins 50 50 out of 100 times
- A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on October 22nd that Kotek was behind Drazen 40-42
- Nevada Steve Sisolak
- According to 538, he wins 48 46 out of 100 times
- A university funded B/C rated poll reported on October 26th that Steve Sisolak was tied with Joe Lombardo 44-44
- Wisconsin Tony Evers
- According to 538, he wins 55 55 out of 100 times
- A Progressive organization funded B rated poll reported on October 22nd that Tony Evers was behind Tim Michels 48-49
- Kansas Laura Kelly
- According to 538, she wins 61 61 out of 100 times
- A media funded A- rated poll reported on September 18th that Incumbent Laura Kelly led Attorney General Derek Schmidt 45-43.
States where Democrats have a chance to flip a Republican governor
- Arizona Katie Hobbs
- According to 538, she wins 38 39 out of 100 times
- An Insider Advantage B rated poll reported on October 25th that Secretary of State Katie Hobbs was behind former local Fox News anchor Kari Lake 43-54
- Georgia Stacey Abrams
- According to 538, she wins 10 9 out of 100 times
- A media funded B rated poll reported on October 27th that Abrams was behind 43-52,
- Oklahoma Joy Hofmeister
- According to 538, she wins 9 9 out of 100 times
- An Amber Integrated B/C rated poll reported on October 15th that Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister led Incumbent Republican Governor Kevin Stitt 46-45
DOWNBALLOT RACES WHERE THE REPUBLICAN IS PARTICULARLY ODIOUS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CLOSE RACE
Secretary of State
- Arizona Adrian Fontes
- To defeat Oath Keeper Mark Finchem
- End Citizens United reported that in a late September poll stated that former Clerk of Maricopa County Adrian Fontes led Oath Keeper and State Rep Mark Finchem 46-44
- Nevada Cisco Aguilar
- To defeat the America First Secretary of State Coalition President Jim Marchant
- NBC news reported that an early October poll stated that former Athletic Commissioner Cisco Aguilar was behind the America First Secretary of State Coalition President 41-43
- Kansas Chris Mann
- To defeat rabid anti-immigrant former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach
- A September 12th poll reported that ex cop and anti-drunk driver activist is behind anti-immigrant former Secretary of State Kris Kobach by 2 points.
- Texas Rochelle Garza
- To defeat indicted, right wing incumbent Ken Paxton
- Reported on September 26th Garza behind Paxton 42-47
STATE SUPREME COURT ELECTIONS WHERE GERRYMANDERING ISSUES ARE MOST VISIBLE
- North Carolina Lucy Inman
- A media funded poll on October 4th showed Democratic Court of Appeals Judge Lucy Inman behind Republican Court of Appeals Judge Richard Dietz 32-37
- North Carolina Sam Ervin IV
- A media funded poll on October 4th showed Incumbent Associate Justice of the NC Supreme Court Sam Erving IV behind General Counsel for the North Carolina Courts Trey Allen 37-39.
- Ohio Teri Jamison
- A media funded poll found that Appeals Court Judge Teri Jamison and Supreme Court Justice Pat Fischer are tied at 40%.
- Ohio Marilyn Zayas
- A media funded poll found that Appeals Court Judge Marilyn Zayas and Supreme Court Justice Pat DeWine are tied at 40%.
Democrats must win both seats in North Carolina to retain a 4-3 majority. For Ohio, I have not included the Chief Justice race even though a win by Democrat Jennifer Brunner would have important long term consequences, it will not affect the partisan composition of the Court because the Republican governor appoints the replacement. A win by either (certainly both would be better) Teri Jamison or Marilyn Zayas for Associate Justice would flip the Ohio Supreme Court to 4-3 Republican to 4-3 Democratic. Elect both, Ohio has a 5-2 Democratic Court.
In these Political Notes, I advocate supporting Democrats and try to describe who the Democratic candidates are and say at least something about the Republicans. Today’s piece is exclusively horse race. The polls are the most recent ones I can find (although I may have missed an Ohio poll showing that the Republican candidates for the Supreme Court are now ahead.).
I don’t know if you can support each of these Democratic candidates, but these are all close races that could make a difference. I urge you to make a difference.