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September 1st, 2022 Political Note #499 Josh Harder California 09
2022 General Election
Republicans complain that Democrats are members of the “elite.” No matter that a fair number of Republicans, including Presidential prospects went to Ivy League Schools or Stanford or Rice. They are, by definition, apparently, not elite because they are Republicans.
Josh Harder, whose father earned his income as an optometrist, came from a family that, for generations, had a peach orchard. is the kind of Democrat Republicans love to call a member of the elite. That he grew up in Turlock, California in the Central Valley and lives there now does not exempt him from that claim. The starter? He went to Stanford.
Worse. After Stanford, he went to Harvard where he got an MBA and a Master’s Degree in Public Policy.
Worse. He met his wife, Pamela Gale Sud, while they were both students at Stanford. She also went to Harvard where she got an MBA and a Master’s Degree in Public Policy.
Still worse, even more elite, even though her mother taught mathematics and computer technology in the Fairfax (VA) County Public Schools, her father, Inder Kumar Sud, was a regional director of the World Bank. He was also the head of the World Bank Alumni Association. Republicans would consider that the kind of elite we should stay away from.
Take a look at their careers.
After Stanford, from 2008 to 2011, Josh Harder worked as a consultant for the Boston Consulting Group. The Boston Consulting Group does management consulting around the world. Along with Bain & Company and McKinsey & Company, it is one of the three largest consulting firms in the world. That is the start of an elite career. It could even be a Republican career.
After Stanford, from 2008 to 2010, Pam Harder worked as a Junior Professional Associate for the World Bank. She worked on energy related international development including an energy efficiency loan to Mexico and evaluation of geothermal and hydropower projects. Working to minimize the climate crisis, that is certainly the start of an elite career.
These jobs were followed, for both of them, by MBAs and Master’s in Public Policy at Harvard.
After Harvard, from 2014 to 2017, Josh Harder was back in Turlock working in San Francisco as a Vice President of Bessemer Venture Partners. This venture capital firm has $10 Billion which it manages and invests around the world. One more step in an elite career.
After Harvard, from 2013 to 2016, Pam Sud was back in Washington working as a senior consultant for FSG, a consulting firm that has, as its mission, helping organizations reimagine their approach to social change to create a more equitable world. She advised the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the creation of a new education and arts foundation in New York City, and co-authored a Harvard Business School case study. What could be more elite than that?
In 2016, Pam Sud was in San Francisco working as the Head of Strategy and Business Operations for Clever, Inc., a firm that intends to make education more equitable and engaging through technology.
In 2017, Josh Harder left Bessemer to teach as an adjunct at a local community college and to organize his campaign to run for congress. He was definitely the Democratic kind elite member.
In 2018, Josh Harder and Pam Sud married.
In 2018, Josh Harder was elected to Congress by a 52-48 margin. He was reelected in 2020 by a 10 point margin.
From 2019 to the present, Pam Harder has worked for the Virginia Economic Development Partnership, most recently as Director of Strategy and Operations for the group she created, launched, and runs called the Virginia Office of Education Economics. The VOEE analyzes Virginia’s education and labor market in order to increase economic mobility.
In Congress Josh Harder joined the New Democratic Coalition, the largest Democratic caucus group which sees itself as fiscally conservative and socially progressive. He also joined the Problem Solvers Caucus, a group of Democrats and Republicans who have attempted, without great success, to create bi-partisan solutions.
His committee assignments have been Agriculture (appropriate to his rural district) and Appropriations (among the most powerful committees). He has been an advocate for limiting the cost of insulin to $35 per month, an advocate for Upward Bound which has programs at Modesto junior colleges, improving water infrastructure and quality, and the use of satellite technology to understand regional agricultural challenges.
A power couple? A potentially powerful Member of Congress? Yes on both counts. Maybe even members of the elite? They are working to improve the country, though, not just working to make money. They each could have created careers that would have made them among the super-rich. Instead, they have opted for public service. They are the kind of elite that seems to offend Republicans.
Spend a little money to ensure that Josh Harder remains in Congress. 538’s projection of a 4% + victory for him requires hard work and funds to sustain a lead heading into the final two months of the election season. Part of what puts Josh Harder in front is the fund raising he has already done. He began the summer with $7 million while his Republican opponent had less than a half million.
There are others you may want to help as well. The Closest House races according to 538 with the probability that each Democratic candidate would win the election in November.
Others you may want to help. These are the closest House races according to 538 and their recent projections.
- CT 02 Inc. Joe Courtney is projected to defeat Mike France by 7.2 points
- CO 07 Brittany Petterson is projected to defeat Erik Aadland by 7.2 points (D Hold)
- IL 13 Nikki Budzinski is projected to defeat Regan Deering by 6.6 points (D Flip)
- CA 47 Inc. Katie Porter is projected to defeat Scott Baugh by 6.4 points
- IL 06 Inc Sean Casten is projected to defeat Keith Pekau by 6.0 points
- WA 08 Inc. Kim Schrier is projected to defeat Matt Larkin by 5.6 points
- MI 08 Inc. Dan Kildee is projected to defeat Paul Junge by 5.5 points
- OR 06 Andrea Salinas is projected to defeat Mike Erickson by 5.2 points (New Seat)
- MN 02 Inc. Angie Craig is projected to defeat Tyler Kistner by 4.8 points
- RI 02 The Democratic nominee is projected to defeat Allen Fung by 4.7 points (D Hold)
- CA 09 Inc Josh Harder is projected to defeat Tom Patti by 4.6 points
- VA 07 Inc Abigail Spanberger is projected to defeat Yesli Vega by 4.6 points
- NV 01 Inc Dina Titus is projected to defeat Mark Robertson by 4.3 points
- NV 04 Inc Steven Horsford is projected to defeat Sam Peters by 4.2 points
- IN 01 Inc Frank Mrvan is projected to defeat Jennifer-Ruth Green by 4.2 points
- NH 01 Inc Chris Pappas is projected to defeat Matt Mowers by 4.0 points
- CT 05 Inc Jahana Hayes is projected to defeat George Logan by 4.0 points
- NY 03 Robert Zimmerman is projected to defeat George Santos by 3.8 points (D Hold)
- TX 28 Inc Henry Cuellar is projected to defeat Cassy Garcia by 3.6 points
- PA 17 Chris Deluzio is projected to defeat Jeremy Shaffer by 3.0 points (D Hold)
- PA 08 Inc Matt Cartwright is projected to defeat Jim Bognet by 3.0 points
- CA 13 Adam Gray is projected to defeat John Duarte by 2.8 points (D Hold)
- OH 09 Inc Marcy Kaptur is projected to defeat JR Majewski by 2.8 points
- MI 07 Inc Elissa Slotkin is projected to defeat Tom Barrett by 2.4 points
- MI 03 Hillary Scholten is projected to defeat Joh Gibbs by 2.0 points (D Flip)
- NY 22 Francis Conole is projected to defeat Steve Wells by 1.7 points (D Flip)
- ME 02 Inc Jared Golden is projected to defeat Bruce Poliquin by 1.7 points
- NV 03 Inc Susie Lee is projected to defeat April Becker by 1.6 points
- MD 06 Inc David Trone is projected to defeat Neil Parrott by 1.2 points
- NY 18 Pat Ryan is projected to defeat Colin Schmitt by .6 points
- IL 17 Eric Sorensen is projected to defeat Esther Joy King by .4 points (D Hold)
- CA 22 Rudy Salas is projected to tie Inc David Valadao
- KS 03 Inc Sharice Davids is projected to lose to Amanda Atkins by .1 point (R Flip)
- CA 27 Christy Smith is projected to lose to Inc Mike Garcia by .2 points
- PA 07 Inc Susan Wild is projected to lose to Lisa Scheller by 1.4 points (R Flip)
- VA 02 Inc Elaine Luria is projected to lose to Jen Kiggans by 1.4 points (R Flip)
- NC 13 Wiley Nickel is projected to lose to Bo Hines by 1.6 points. (R Hold)
- NM 02 Gabe Vasquez is projected to lose to Inc Yvette Herrell by 2.0 points
- CO 08 Yadira Caraveo is projected to lose to Barbara Kirkmeyer by 2.1 points (New Seat)
- NJ 07 Inc Tom Malinowski is projected to lose to Thomas Kean by 2.5 points (R Flip)
- OR 05 Jamie McLeod-Skinner is projected to lose to Lore Chavez-DeRemer by 3.0 points (R Flip)
- TX 15 Michelle Vallejo is projected to lose to Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez by 3.0 points (R Flip)
- IA 03 Inc Cindy Axne is projected to lose to Zach Nunn by 3.4 points (R Flip)
- AZ 02 Inc Tom O’Halleran is projected to lose to Eli Crane by 3.2 points (R Flip)
- MI 10 Carl Marlinga is projected to lose to John James by 5.2 points (R Hold)
- NY 19 Josh Riley is projected to lose to Eric Molinari by 5.0 points (R Flip)
- CA 45 Jay Chen is projected to lose to Inc Michelle Steel by 3.8 points
- WI 03 Brad Pfaff is projected to lose to Derrick Van Orden by 5.0 points (R Flip)
- NY 01 Bridget Fleming is projected to lose to the Republican nominee by 5.0 points (R Hold)
- OH 13 Emilia Sykes is projected to lose to Madison Gesiotto Gilbert by 7.6 points
- CA 41 Will Rollins is projected to lose to Inc Ken Calvert by 8.4 points
Where should you put your money? Consider the following. The impetus is toward Democrats, but is not quite enough. The need is to minimize the number of Republican Flips and get a few Democratic Flips. I suggest start donating with #24 above. Protect the crucial Elissa Slotkin and gain flips with Hillary Scholten and Francis Conole. (Complacency Kills Campaigns. If you can afford it, do not ignore the races with Democrats before #24, especially Nikki Budzinski who is likely to Flip a Republican seat.) Continue as far as your judgment will carry you. I would go to #49, protecting several very close races and, perhaps, preventing Republican flips. 538 predicts the following Flips: Tom Malinowski, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, Michelle Vallejo, Cindy Axne, Tom O’Halleran, Josh Riley, and Brad Pfaff. That is a net of 4 flips to the Republicans – exactly the number to give Republicans a majority of 2018-2017. Stop one of the Republican Flips or break the tie in favor of Rudy Salas and Democrats keep the majority. Right now, at least, it is all just that close.
