Political Note #497 Will Rollins California 41

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August 26th , 2022  Political Note #497 Will Rollins CA 41

2022                          General Election

 Palm Springs in probably the best known city in the new 41st Congressional District of California.  It is a desert resort city in Riverside County.  Ten percent of the City is part of an Indian Reservation.  Before and after World War II, it was particularly popular with the rich and famous from Hollywood.  Later, it attracted retirees who might live there year round.  Seasonally, it began attracting college kids for spring break and Canadians to escape the winter.  Palm Springs’ nearly 50,000 people triples in the winter.  So many people come for brief periods of time that the city now counts a total of 1.5 million visitors a year.

Something else changed.  People noticed when, in 2020, Christy Holstege was elected mayor.  She was the first female mayor of Palm Springs.  More important, she was the first openly bisexual mayor of Palm Springs and, maybe, the first in the nation.  After Holstege decided to run for Assembly, Lisa Middleton was elected mayor, becoming, they claim, the first transexual mayor in the country.

Palm Springs is not only for the rich and famous, for college kids, for Canadians or for retirees.  Ask if they welcome members of the LGBTQ community, you get a page that says “Visit Greater Palm Springs…. with its large and vibrant lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community, it is well-known as a welcoming LGBTQ+ travel destination.  Visitors will find plenty to enjoy around town including hotels, events, and bars and nightlife options.”

Will Rollins, the Democratic candidate for California 41 is a federal prosecutor. He prosecuted a fraudster for his Ponzi scheme, a doctor who sold opiates, and then moved on to focus on counterterrorism and counterintelligence. He prosecuted an electrical engineer for sending missile guidance microchips to China, Iranians for violating US sanctions, a QAnon follower for attacking the Port of Los Angeles, and a few of the January 6 insurrectionists.

Will Rollins lives in Palm Springs.  He is comfortable there, in part, because he is a gay man.  He lives with a partner in a city where they feel welcome as a couple.  “The best part about it,” he says, “is knowing I share the same values as the people living in Palm Springs.”

Will Rollins and his partner did not feel particularly welcomed by their Congressman.  Ken Calvert was first elected to Congress in 1992. He has won every race since then, occasionally by close margins, but usually by a lot.  He has some accomplishments. As a result of his work, there is a National Child Awareness Month.  He introduced the bill that created a 25-state collaboration regarding water supply.  He introduced the proposal that became E-Verify to check on whether new employees are legally allowed to work.

Calvert has been anti-abortion throughout his time in office.  He joined other Members of Congress in the lawsuit to attempt to overthrow the 2020 election.

STOP. Take a minute.  We’ve got a conservative Republican attempting to overthrow the government and a gay prosecutor who jailed a few of those who attempted violence toward that end.  Attempting to overthrow the government, even if it was via lawsuit, does not belong on a list of Ken Calvert’s conservative positions.  That was a step way too far.

BACK TO THE STORY.  Calvert earned a 10% rating on LGBTQ issues from Equality California in 2021.  When asked, he insists he is for treating everyone equally.  Perhaps conscious of how much his district had changed for 2022, he voted this year for the Equality Act recognizing same-sex marriage.

Will Rollins insists that Calvert’s Equality Act vote does not represent Calvert’s thinking.  He points to Calvert’s. past opposition to gays and Lesbians serving openly in the military as more representative of Calvert’s thinking.  Calvert is certainly capable of tactical changes in his voting to reflect how CA 41 has changed through redistricting.  Redistricting has not made CA 41 entirely like Palm Springs.  The district still leans Republican.  538 calls it an R+7 district.  Redistricting, one analyst said, made CA 41 7 points more Democratic than it had been.  An R+14 district is extremely difficult to flip.  Flipping an R+7 district is not out of the question.

As we move toward the home stretch of the campaign, the incumbent has advantages.  On July 1, Calvert had $1.4 million available for the rest of the campaign; Will Rollins had $.5 million.  538 projects a 7.4% win by Calvert.  If you use their model that relies exclusively on polls, the projection is a smaller win – 6%.  The most recent poll of CA 41 alone is from March. It showed Will Rollins leading by a point – 42-41.

Support Will Rollins in this campaign.  If he can hold his own financially and the momentum for Democrats continues, he will win this election.  He needs you for resources and for momentum.

Others you may want to help.  These are the closest House races according to 538 and their recent projections. (Democrats are listed first and are bolded)

  1. CT 02 Inc. Joe Courtney is projected to defeat Mike France by 7.0 points
  2. CO 07 Brittany Petterson is projected to defeat Erik Aadland by 7.0 points (D Hold)
  3. IL 13 Nikki Budzinski is projected to defeat Regan Deering by 6.6 points (D Flip)
  4. CA 47 Inc. Katie Porter is projected to defeat Scott Baugh by 6.2 points
  5. IL 06 Inc Sean Casten is projected to defeat Keith Pekau by 5.8 points
  6. OR 06 Andrea Salinas is projected to defeat Mike Erickson by 5.6 points (New Seat)
  7. WA 08 Inc. Kim Schrier is projected to defeat Matt Larkin by 5.4 points
  8. MI 08 Inc. Dan Kildee is projected to defeat Paul Junge by 5.3 points
  9. MN 02 Inc. Angie Craig is projected to defeat Tyler Kistner by 5.0. points
  10. IN 01 Inc Frank Mrvan is projected to defeat Jennifer-Ruth Green by 4.6 points
  11. CA 09 Inc Josh Harder is projected to defeat Tom Patti by 4.4. points
  12. NV 04 Inc Steven Horsford is projected to defeat Sam Peters by 4.2 points
  13. RI 02 The Democratic nominee is projected to defeat Allen Fung by 4.4 points (D Hold)
  14. VA 07 Inc Abigail Spanberger is projected to defeat Yesli Vega by 4.4 points
  15. NV 01 Inc Dina Titus is projected to defeat Mark Robertson by 4.4 points
  16. NH 01 Inc Chris Pappas is projected to defeat Matt Mowers by 3.8 points
  17. CT 05 Inc Jahana Hayes is projected to defeat George Logan by 3.8 points
  18. TX 28 Inc Henry Cuellar is projected to defeat Cassy Garcia by 3.5 points
  19. PA 17 Chris Deluzio is projected to defeat Jeremy Shaffer by 3,3 points (D Hold)
  20. CA 13 Adam Gray is projected to defeat John Duarte by 3.2 points (D Hold)
  21. PA 08 Inc Matt Cartwright is projected to defeat Jim Bognet by 2.8 points
  22. OH 09 Inc Marcy Kaptur is projected to defeat JR Majewski by 2.6 points
  23. MI 07 Inc Elissa Slotkin is projected to defeat Tom Barrett by 2.1 points
  24. MI 03 Hillary Scholten is projected to defeat Joh Gibbs by 1.9 points (D Flip)
  25. NY 22 Francis Conole is projected to defeat Steve Wells by 1.6 points (D Flip)
  26. ME 02 Inc Jared Golden is projected to defeat Bruce Poliquin by 1.5 points
  27. NV 03 Inc Susie Lee is projected to defeat April Becker by 1.2 points
  28. NY 03 The Democratic nominee is projected to defeat George Santos by 1.1 points (D Hold)
  29. MD 06 Inc David Trone is projected to defeat Neil Parrott by 1.0 point
  30. IL 17 Eric Sorensen is projected to defeat Esther Joy King by .2 points (D Hold)
  31. CA 22 Rudy Salas is projected to lose to Inc David Valadao by .2 points
  32. KS 03 Inc Sharice Davids is projected to lose to Amanda Atkins by .3 point (R Flip)
  33. CA 27 Christy Smith is projected to lose to Inc Mike Garcia by .4 points
  34. NY 18 Pat Ryan is projected to lose to Colin Schmitt by 1.0 point (R Flip)
  35. PA 07 Inc Susan Wild is projected to lose to Lisa Scheller by 1.6 points (R Flip)
  36. VA 02 Inc Elaine Luria is projected to lose to Jen Kiggans by 1.6 points (R Flip)
  37. NC 13 Wiley Nickel is projected to lose to Bo Hines by 1.8 points. (R Hold)
  38. NM 02 Gabe Vasquez is projected to lose to Inc Yvette Herrell by 2.2 points
  39. CO 08 Yadira Caraveo is projected to lose to Barbara Kirkmeyer by 2.3 points (New Seat)
  40. NJ 07 Inc Tom Malinowski is projected to lose to Thomas Kean by 2.7 points (R Flip)
  41. TX 15 Michelle Vallejo is projected to lose to Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez by 2.8 points (R Flip)
  42. OR 05 Jamie McLeod-Skinner is projected to lose to Lore Chavez-DeRemer by 2.8 points (R Flip)
  43. IA 03 Inc Cindy Axne is projected to lose to Zach Nunn by 3.4 points (R Flip)
  44. AZ 02 Inc Tom O’Halleran is projected to lose to Eli Crane by 3.4 points (R Flip)
  45. MI 10 Carl Marlinga is projected to lose to John James by 3.7 points (R Hold)
  46. NY 19 Josh Riley is projected to lose to Eric Molinari by 3.8 points (R Flip)
  47. CA 45 Jay Chen is projected to lose to Inc Michelle Steel by 3.8 points
  48. WI 03 Brad Pfaff is projected to lose to Derrick Van Orden by 4.6 points (R Flip)
  49. NY 01 Bridget Fleming is projected to lose to the Republican nominee by 5.2 points (R Hold)
  50. CA 41 Will Rollins is projected to lose to Inc Ken Calvert by 7.4 points
  51. OH 13 Emilia Sykes is projected to lose to Madison Gesiotto Gilbert by 8.2 points  (R Flip)