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August 23rd, 2022   Political Note #496 Mike Collier, Texas Lt. Governor

2022                          General Election

In 1994, GW Bush defeated Ann Richards for Governor of Texas.  That same year Democrat Bob Bullock was elected Lt Governor, Democrat Dan Morales was elected Attorney General, Democrat John Sharp was elected Comptroller, and  Democrat Garry Mauro was elected Land Commissioner.

No Democrat has won a state-wide election in Texas since 1994.   Democrats do better nearby.  New Mexico is a Democratic state.  Louisiana has a Democratic governor.  Arizona has two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Secretary of State who may be elected Governor. Even Mississippi had a Democratic Attorney General until 2020 when he decided to run for Governor.  Not Oklahoma or Arkansas, though. Republicans took total control of Oklahoma in 2010, in Arkansas in 2014.

In Texas, Democrats keep trying.  They get knocked down, get up, and try again.  Beto O’Rourke is running for Governor in 2022 after losing a Senate Race in 2018 by 2 ½ points.   Mike Collier is running for Lt. Governor in 2022.  In 2014, he ran, to no avail, for Comptroller, losing by almost 20 points.   He did better in 2018 running for Lt. Governor.  He lost by 4 points.  Third time the charm?

Lt. Governor can be a potent position.  This year, two of the most interesting Democratic candidates for the US Senate are current Lt Governors.  John Fetterman actually had responsibilities as Lt. Governor of Pennsylvania.  He made the most of being Chair of the Board of Pardons.  Mandela Barnes had fewer duties as Lt. Governor of Wisconsin.

Texas is different. The Lt. Governor has two very big governance sources of power.  As President of the Senate, the Lt. Governor appoints the chairs and all members of Senate committees and assigns members to those committees.  Furthermore, the Lt Governor has a major role on several state boards ranging from the Budget Board to the Redistricting Board.  In Texas, the Governor might be the show horse while the Lt. Governor is the work horse.  The Lt. Governor is elected independent of the Governor.  The two do not run as a team.  Sometimes, they are not even friendly.

Mike Collier expressed an interest in politics when he was a student and a member of the marching band at the University of Texas.  He got advice.  Get a job. Earn money.  Then think about what you would like to do in politics.  He took that advice.

Mike Collier became a CPA, spent more than 22 years at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, ten of those years as a partner working as a consultant on mergers and acquisitions of energy companies.  With that experience, he helped create an energy company of his own —  Layline Petroleum.  He was the Chief Financial Officer.

He made money and found a purpose for his political interest.  Unhappy at the way Texas had reduced funding for public schools, Mike Collier would fix Texas schools. He was not clear about whether he was a Democrat or a Republican, but Tea Party radicals convinced him.  He was not a Republican, so he must be a Democrat.  Mike Collier’s first run for office seemed a perfect fit.  He ran for State Comptroller.  He might have made a fine comptroller, but, first time running for office and doing that on a state level,  he was not a great candidate. What’s more, 2014 was a terrible Democratic year in Texas.  He earned some regard within the Party, though.  He spent a quarter million dollars of his own money on the campaign.

By 2022, Mike Collier has got the campaigning down pat and he really knows what party he is in.  His website explains: “Mike’s passion for Texas extends beyond public education. He believes that we need to fix our damn grid, that healthcare is a human right, that Black Lives Matter, that income inequality and climate change pose grave threats to the future of Texas, and that state government ought to prioritize the needs of working families — not just the well-connected. Mike will fight for every Texan, in every county — regardless of where you live, your race, or your income-level.”

Mike Collier is running behind. A July poll showed him down by 5 points. He’s got an opponent you’d love to beat.  The incumbent Lt. Governor, Dan Patrick, seems like a caricature.  He made his early money with sports bars; his money after bankruptcy as a conservative talk radio host and station owner who first signed Rush Limbaugh. An opponent of public spending and illegal immigrants, he advocated for values shaped by evangelical Christianity.  Patrick carried those views into the Texas Senate and to his election as Lt. Governor. Claiming that he supported education, he dismissed the need for positions like math supervisor or curriculum expert.  Patrick would improve Texas schools by preventing students from reading the writings of Susan B Anthony, Cesar Chavez or Martin Luther King, Jr.  He has opposed same sex marriage, abortion, and tweeted a Bible verse about man reaping what he sows the night of the Orlando Gay Nightclub mass shooting,

Something about Texas’s swing to Republicans has particularly encouraged mean-spiritedness – a quality that seems to characterize Dan Patrick, Greg Abbott, and Ted Cruz.  Electing Mike Collier as Lt. Governor of Texas would be a step toward changing the policies Texas leaders pursue and the tone with which they pursue those policies.  Help Mike Collier with the resources he needs to complete his campaign.

Down Ballot Races

 Attorney General races worth noting:
Arizona          Kris Mayes (Political Note #470) v Prosecutor Abe Hamadeh

Georgia         State Senator Jen Jordan (Political Note #441) v Incumbent Chris Carr

Iowa               Incumbent Tom Miller v County Attorney Brenna Bird

Kansas          Attorney Chris Mann (Political Note #425) v extremist former Secretary of State Kris Klaubach.

Michigan       Incumbent Dana Nessel (Political Note #415) v Trump acolyte Attorney Matthew DePerno

Minnesota    Incumbent Keith Ellison (Political Note #442) v Attorney Jim Schultz

Nevada         Incumbent Aaron Ford (Political Note #360) v Attorney Sigal Chattah

New Mexico County DA Raul Torrez v ex military attorney Jeremy Gay

Ohio               Ex City Counselor Jeff Crossman (Political Note #490) v Incumbent Dave Yost

Texas            Attorney Rochelle Garza. (Political Note #472) v Incumbent Ken Paxton

Wisconsin     Incumbent Josh Kaul (Political Note #367) v DA Eric Toney

Secretary of State candidates worth noting

Arizona         Adrian Fontes (Political Note #495) v State Rep Mark Finchem

Georgia         State Rep Bee Nguyen (Political Note #409) v Incumbent Brad Raffensperger

Michigan       Incumbent Jocelyn Benson (Political Note #435) v Big Lie enthusiast Kristina Karamo

Minnesota    Incumbent Steve Simon v former candidate Kim Crockett

Nevada         Attorney and ex Boxing Commissioner Cisco Aguilar (Political Note #436) v Big Lie enthusiast former state assemblyman Jim Marchant

New Mexico Incumbent Maggie Toulouse Oliver (who has already had to deal with a local who refused to certify votes) v Businesswoman Audrey Mendonca-Trujillo

Ohio               City Counselor Chelsea Clark (Political Note #471) v Incumbent Frank LaRose

Gubernatorial candidates with projections from 538

  1. Michigan Incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (Political Note #381) defeats radio host Tudor Dixon by 10.6 points using the Deluxe model. By11.8 based on polls only.
  2. Connecticut Incumbent Ned Lamont defeats Businessman Bob Stefanowski by 10.1 points using the Deluxe Model. By 10.7 based on polls only
  3. Minnesota Incumbent Tim Walz (Political Note #479) defeats ex State Senator Scott Jensen by 9.2 points using the Deluxe Model, By only 7.3 points based on polls only
  4. Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (Political Note #426) defeats State Senator Doug Mastriano by 7.0 points using the Deluxe Model. By 8.0 points based on polls only
  5. Maine Incumbent Janet Mills (Political Note #407) defeats ex Governor Paul LePage by 6.5 points using the Deluxe Model. By the same 6.2 points based on polls only.
  6. New Mexico Incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham (Political Note #480) defeats TV Meteorologist Mark Ronchetti by 6.2 points using the Deluxe Model. By 4.0 points based on polls only.
  7. Oregon State House Speaker Tina Kotek (Political Note #478) defeats State House Minority Leader Christine Drazin by 3.7. points using the Deluxe Model. By 5.2 points based on polls only
  8. Wisconsin Incumbent Tony Evers (Political Note #366) defeats Businessman Tim Michels by 3.0 points using Deluxe Model. By .2 points based on polls only.
  9. Nevada Incumbent Steve Sisolak (Political Note #414) defeats Sheriff Joe Lombardo by 2.0 points using the Deluxe Model. By 1.8 points based on polls only
  10. Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbes (Political Note #402) defeats ex Fox News Anchor Kari Lake by .7 points using the Deluxe Model. By 2.1 points based on polls only
  11. Kansas Incumbent Laura Kelly (Political Note #358) defeats Attorney General Derek Schmidt by .4 points using the Deluxe Model. By 1.2 points based on polls only
  12. Georgia Former State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (Political Note #432) loses to Incumbent Brian Kemp by 6.3 points using the Deluxe Model. By 4.8 based on polls only
  13. Florida Probable nominee Charlie Crist (Political Note #463) loses to Incumbent Ron DeSantis by 9.8 points using the Deluxe Model. By 5.6 points based on polls only
  14. Texas Former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (Political Note #431) loses to Incumbent Doug Abbott by 12.3 points using the Deluxe Model. By 7.4 points based on polls only

 

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