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New York will have two primaries this year.
- June 28 — the regularly scheduled primary for all offices except
- August 23 – the delay for the Congressional primary and the primary for the State Senate. In both cases, this is a result of a law suit claiming unconstitutional gerrymandering.
The claim that the New York legislature gerrymandered the Congressional seats may be accurate. What is too bad, from the perspective of Democrats, is that courts forced New York to fix their gerrymander, while that did not happen in Ohio or Florida.
The New York Democrats had hoped to achieve 23 Democratic seats and 3 Republican seats. Take a look at where things are now:
Safe seats for Democrats (14)
NY 05 Gregory Meeks: was redistricted by the New York legislature to be D+64, then was D+82 under the Special Master and is now D+62 after the Master made further revisions after a hearing.
NY 06 Grace Meng: was D+24, Then D+31 Still D+31
NY 07 Nydia Velazquez: was D+65, Then D+61 Now D+63
NY 08 Hakeem Jeffries: was D+55, Then D+49 Now D+52
NY 09 Yvette Clarke: was D+55, Then D+57 Now D+51
NY 13 Adriano Espaillat: was D+77, Then D+77 Still D+77
NY 14 Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez: was D+50, Then D+57 Still +57
NY 15 Ritchie Torres: was D+72, Then D+71 Still D+71
NY 16 Jamaal Bowman: was D+36, Then D+40. Still D+40
NY 20 Paul Tonko: was D+12, Then D+12 Now D+14
NY 25 Joseph Morelle: was D+15, Then D+13 Still D+13
NY 26 Brian Higgins: was D+20, Then D+16 Now D+18
Two Safe Democratic seats with competitive primaries
NY 12 Carolyn Maloney: was D+67, then D+68 and still D+68. NY 12 Incumbent Carolyn Maloney v NY 10 Incumbent Jerrold Nadler v insurgent Suraj Patel.
NY10 OPEN: was D+52, then D+62 and now D+69. NY 17 Incumbent Mondaire Jones, former mayor Bill De Blasio, Former Federal Prosecutor Daniel Goldman, former Congresswoman Elizabeth Holtzman, City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, and Assembly Members Yuh-Line Niou and Jo Ann Simon
Competitive districts currently or formerly held by Democrats (5)
NY 03 D+4 OPEN: Democrats Josh Lafazin or County Legislator Robert Zimmerman v (Probably) Republican Businessman George Devolder-Santos
NY 04 D+10 OPEN: Democratic Former Town Supervisor Laura Gillen or Democratic Mayor Keith Corbett v Cryptologist Bill Staniford
NY 17 D+7 OPEN NY 18 Incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney (Political Note #448) or State Senator Alessandra Biaggi (Political Note #124) v State Assemblyman Michael Lawler
NY 18 D+3 OPEN: Democratic County Executive Pat Ryan v Assemblyman Colin Schmitt
NY19 R+1 OPEN: Attorney Josh Riley v County Executive Mark Molinaro
If Democrats hold all 5 of these seats, combined with the Solid Democratic seats, they will have 19 seats, the same number of Members as in the current Congress.
Safe seats for Republicans (3)
NY 21 Elise Stefanik: was R+23, now R+15
NY 23: One of four Republicans competing was R+26, now R+21:
NY 24 Claudia Tenney: was R+25, now R+22
There is the slimmest possibility that a Democrat could win one of these seats. R+15 is not necessarily a lock. R+20 or so should be a lock, but Republicans kicked the incumbent out of NY 23 for heretical views on gun safety and Claudia Tenney, who moved from NY22 to NY 23 to NY 24, is not a strong campaigner.
Competitive Seats currently or formerly held by Republicans (4)
NY 02 R+6. Democratic Educator and Reserve Lt. Col Jackie Gordon (Political Note #266) v Incumbent Andrew Garbarino
NY 11 R+11. Former Democratic Congressman in NY 11 Max Rose (Political Note #230) v Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis
NY 01 R+5 OPEN: Democratic County legislator Bridget Fleming v Former County Commissioner Nick LaLota
NY 22 D+2 OPEN: Democratic veteran Francis Conole v whichever Republican emerges from the primary
If Democrats can flip 2 of the formerly Republican seats, they will have a delegation of 21 Democrats and 5 Republicans. That’s progress.
Let’s get down to business and flip NY 22 with Francis Conole
June 27th, 2022 Political Note #477 Francis Conole New York 22
2022 General Election
The big city in NY 22 is Syracuse, 150,000 people, a metropolitan area of 650,000. Its largest employers include the State University’s Upstate Medical School (#1) and Syracuse University (#3). Corporate employers include Lockheed Martin (#4), National Grid (#7), and Carrier (#8). The city is sometimes described as a crossroads – once of the Erie Canal and smaller canals, then of railway networks, now of Interstates – north/south Route 81 and east/west Route 90.
An hour south on Route 81 and still in NY 22 is another great university – Cornell, the largest of the Ivies. Ithaca, a much smaller city, is more of a college town. Universities have a big impact on Syracuse as well – and on what this new NY 22 is going to be like. The universities are probably the reason that an upstate congressional district has a D+2 tilt.
Francis Conole was born and brought up in Syracuse. His parents and grandparents lived and worked in this central New York city. His grandfather was a state cop and an elected sheriff; his grandmother taught school in Syracuse. His mom was an occasional journalist for the local newspaper. His dad was a hospital administrator and Army reservist. They were the kind of people who make a community work.
Francis Conole graduated from Westhill High School after which he was nominated for the US Naval Academy. He joined the class of 2001. Shortly after 9/11 he was assigned to the USS Wasp. He served tours of duty on a destroyer, in the Office of Naval Intelligence, and in the Pentagon working on defense policy. In 2010, he served in Iraq as part of the effort to plan a safe withdrawal from that war.
His most memorable experience was in 2008. Francis Conole understands the importance of symbolic acts. He served on Barack Obama’s presidential Armed Forces Inaugural Committee. He recalls: “I led a team of military from all backgrounds, races, demographics. We were really focused on Inauguration Day, and being a part of that day and standing there seeing us elect our first African-American president was an extremely proud moment for me.”
After returning from Iraq, Francis Conole earned an MBA from the University of Maryland and an MA from the Naval War College. He went home to Syracuse as a Commander in the Reserves with the possibility of a promotion to Captain. He became involved in local politics and ran for Congress in 2020, losing to Dana Balter, who had wrapped up endorsements from County Democratic parties early. She won the primary, but lost to the now retiring Republican incumbent. Learning from his 2020 experience, Francis Conole himself has earned endorsements from County Democratic parties early.
Francis Conole put together his program. In April, he could tell the Ithaca Voice his emphasis on taking care of people – supporting social security, Medicare and other health related programs particularly including women’s health. He would reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act, the creation of recovery centers for victims of the opioid crisis, and would rebuild from problems created by the pandemic. He noted particularly the effectiveness of the Child Tax Credit, which he would restore, and would work on efforts to restore manufacturing to the US and, in particular, locally. He talked with the Ithaca newspaper about the value of the infrastructure bill that had passed and the need for investment in housing.
Francis Conole prepared himself for this election. He entered April with $360,000 –more than double what any other Democrat who will be in the August primary and just under twice as much as the likely Republican nominee. Nevertheless, $360,000 is not much for a Congressional race. Confusion about the boundaries of districts and where candidates would run dampened fund raising. The Republican primary winner will get a lot of resources fast. Let’s help Francis Conole now so he retains his fund raising lead and the sense of inevitability that he will be NY 22’s next Member of Congress.
If you were to focus your contributions toward retaining a Democratic House of Representatives on states in addition to New York or, if you feel you must, instead of New York, consider Iowa and Nevada.
Iowa – Three of Iowa’s four Congressional districts are close races.
IA 01 R+4. State Rep and Law Professor Christina Bohannan (Political Note 411), a bright a knowledgeable lawyer at a time when we need them v Marianette Miller-Meeks who won her election in 2020 by six votes.
IA 02 R+6 State Senator Liz Mathis (Political Note #445), a former local television anchor with non-profit experience and a preference for being non-partisan v Ashley Hinson, also a former local television anchor, younger, with a strong partisan focus.
IA 03 R+2 Incumbent Cynthia Axne (Political Note #428), a former state-level administrator who knows how to get things done v State Senator Zach Nunn, a former air force intelligence officer.
Nevada
NV 01 D+4 Incumbent Dina Titus (Political Note #444), a former academic who wrote about the danger of nuclear waste storage v Financial planner Mark Robertson. Redistricting has made this a much more competitive district than it was.
NV 03 D+2 Incumbent Susie Lee (Political Note #356), a water specialist who became an education activist and philanthropist after marrying a wealthy Nevadan v attorney April Becker who wants to fight Joe Biden’s “dangerous,” “socialist” agenda
NV 04 D+5 Incumbent Steve Horsford (Political Note #375), an up from the bootstraps African American and former Nevada House Majority Leader v Sam Peters, Air Force combat veteran and owner of Peters Family Insurance
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