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Oregon is a Democratic state. Two Democratic Senators. Four Democratic Members of Congress and one Republican. The last six governors were Democrats. The Secretary of State is a Democrat. The Attorney General is a Democrat. The Commissioner of Labor and Industries is a Democrat. Democrats have a majority in the State House of Representatives and the State Senate.
Oregon is so Democratic that it has two Democrats running for Governor – House Speaker Tina Kotek who was nominated by the Democratic Primary and former State Senator Betsy Johnson running as an independent. That could be a formula for electing a Republican.
063022 Political Note #478 Tina Kotek Governor Oregon
2022 General Election
Tina Kotek moved from Pennsylvania to Oregon when she was 21. She completed her BA at the University of Oregon in religious studies. That doesn’t sound like a politician. Next was a Master’s degree in International Studies from the University of Washington. That doesn’t sound like preparation for a politician either. More important than the content of her studies in Washington, while a student there, Tina Kotek came to understand herself as a Lesbian. At the time, that would have been a disqualifier for someone with an interest in politics. While at the University of Washington, she exercised some political skills. She and others fought successfully for domestic partnership rights for faculty and students at the University.
By 1998, Tina Kotek was in Portland doing the work that would move a religious studies major to become a politician. She was a lobbyist. She described herself as a public policy advocate for the Oregon Food Bank. The Food Bank still has an office of Public Policy Advocacy and it still touts its advocacy or lobbying successes — overtime protection for farm workers, emergency heat relief, reducing traffic stops, and, closer to what you would expect a food bank’s focus to be, funds to support the purchase of food and to improve the food distribution infrastructure.
In 2003, Tina Kotek became the policy director for Children First of Oregon. The organization coordinates advocacy for children by various organizations that support children. They say about themselves that they seek “a future where all children and their families have what they need to thrive, and to experience happiness, belonging, and safety in their homes and communities.”
That is a vision worth lobbying for. For Tina Kotek, it is a vision worth becoming a politician for. She lost a race to become a state rep in 2004, but won in 2006. She found a kind of home in the Oregon House of Representatives. By 2013, when Democrats gained a majority in the House of Representatives, Tina Kotek was elected Speaker.
Tina Kotek began her influential career in the Oregon House rewriting the state’s poverty program and passing benefits access and protections for members of the LGBTQ community. She earned and sustained a reputation for effective leadership. A group that offers an environmental scorecard gave her a high score (87) on environmental issues and described her as “known for her pragmatism and authenticity,” as someone committed to “passing the best public policy [and] who will not lower that standard in the face of political pressure.”
Tina Kotek’s career has not been entirely free of controversy. A Republican leader complained that she swore at him. She recalls raising her voice because the Republicans failed to follow Covid protocols when they came into her office.
More reflective of her willingness to impose her will on the legislature is a formal complaint about her made by then Representative Diego Hernandez in January 2021. There is a reason to be wary of Hernandez. He submitted his formal complaint on the same day that a report about his sexually harassing behavior became public. Subsequent hearings found sufficient evidence that Hernandez created a hostile work environment for three women with whom he had affairs for the legislature to consider whether or not to begin the process for expelling a Member. Hernandez resigned.
Nevertheless, Hernandez’s complaint against Tina Kotek lingers; the report was never completed. He complained, both in his formal complaint and the two years before he filed a formal complaint that Tina Kotek needed his vote for a bill to cut pension-related costs. He said she threatened bills he proposed and his committee status and the committee status of his allies. She has denied some of the complaints and apologized for others. We can see that despite the Oregon legislature’s aspirations for higher standards in the legislative process, law making in Oregon, under Tina Kotek, had some of the characteristics of most legislative bodies.
Before Tina Kopek gets to exercise her influence on Oregon as governor, she will have to get past her two opponents.
She knows the Republican candidate Christine Drazan well. Drazan is a graduate of George Fox University in Oregon. The school was founded as a Quaker institution, but had come to resemble an evangelical Christian university by the time Drazan enrolled. She was elected to the state legislature in 2018. By September, 2019, she was elected Minority Leader.
Two of Drazan’s characteristics stand out. 1) Her political views. She is anti-abortion, opposed to a Covid vaccine mandate, opposed to pollution limiting emission trading legislation. 2) Her political processes. Her opposition to Democratic policies was tenacious. She opposed through delay and quorum denial. She would require that proposed legislation be read out loud. She would not attend legislative meetings, preventing a quorum. On a larger scale, she led the Republicans out of town so Democrats could not proceed with legislation and redistricting. Christine Drazan would undoubtedly, be as disruptive a governor as she was a legislative leader.
Tina Kopek’s other opponent is Betsy Johnson. Betsy Johnson is a twenty-year state senator. Her father was a state rep. She graduated from Carleton College and got her JD from Lewis and Clark. She was a helicopter pilot and founder of a helicopter business that merged with a larger firm. The business provides charter services and sales and maintenance for others. In addition, she flew in rodeo-like international helicopter competitions.
When Betsy Johnson announced that she was running for governor, she said “Having to choose between another left-wing liberal promising more of the same or a right-wing Trump apologist – is no choice at all.” Betsy Johnson says she is in between. She is in favor of abortion rights. She has been a member of the NRA and favored gun rights, though she has supported gun safety legislation, especially since the Uvalde massacre. Generally pro-business, she opposed a minimum wage increase, opposed proposed legislation to prohibit businesses from requiring employees to attend political meetings, and opposed proposed legislation requiring parental leave.
The only poll since the Oregon primary found Johnson in third place and Drazan leading Tina Kopek by two points. Let’s help Tina Kopek regain the lead and win the general election. Betsy Johnson would not want a right-wing Republican governor. Nor does Oregon. Nor do we. Help Tina Kopek with some resources.
Democrats for Governor. Every one of the candidates below is well worth donating to. If you feel you can donate only to one candidate, I suggest Charlie Crist in Florida. A former Republican Governor, Charlie Crist is a politician because he is likeable, because he enjoys being liked. He is running against Incumbent Ron DeSantis who expresses disdain for likeableness, whose ideological support for his understanding of personal freedom and thin-skinned vengefulness makes him as tyrannical as any current American political leader and a likely Presidential candidate if Donald Trump falters. Defeat DeSantis and you keep him out of the Presidential race.
VULNERABLE DEMOCRATIC GUBENATORIAL CANDIDATES – WHERE THEY STAND
Connecticut Incumbent Ned Lamont (Polls – 5/23 +8, 5/11 +4, 4/11 +18).
Kansas Incumbent Laura Kelly (Political Note #358) (Polls – 4/27 -4)
Maine Incumbent Janet Mills (Political Note #407) (Polls – 5/13 +5, 5/5 +4, 4/7 +3)
Michigan Incumbent Christine Whitmer (Political Note #381) (Polls – 5/27 +37) I should take her off the list.
Minnesota Incumbent Tim Walz (Political Note #479) (Polls 6/8 +2, 5/10 +5)
Nevada Incumbent Steve Sisolak (Political Note #414) (Polls 6/15 538’s calculated average +2.1)’
New Mexico Incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham (Political Note #480) (Polls 6/14 +3, 6/14 -1, 5/7 +4)
Wisconsin Incumbent Tony Evers (Political Note #366) (Polls 6/20 +4)
DEMOCRATS ASPIRING TO FLIP A REPUBLICAN GOVERNORSHIP
Arkansas Engineer Chris Jones (Political Note #421)
Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (Political Note #402) (Polls – 5/15 +5)
Florida Congressman Charlie Crist (Political Note #463) (Polls – 6/4 +1, 5/9 -1)
Georgia National Figure Stacey Abrams (Political Note #432) (Polls 6/14 538’s calculated average -6.3)
Iowa Ex Statewide Candidate Deidre DeJear
Oklahoma Public Inst Sec’y Joy Hofmeister (Political Note #449) (Polls – 6/9 -18) I may need to take her off the list. She is just not close enough. Let’s see where she is as the abortion decision sinks in
Oregon State House Speaker Tina Kotek (Political Note #478) (Polls – 5/27 -2)
Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (Political Note #426) (Polls 6/19 +3, 6/13 +4)
South Carolina Ex Congressman Joe Cunningham (Political Note #199)
South Dakota House Min Leader Jamie Smith (Political Note #450)
Texas Ex Congressman Beto O’Rourke (Political Note #431) (Polls 6/13 538’s calculated average -9.7)
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