DO NOT FEAR THE FUTURE OF THE SUPREME COURT. NOT FOR THE SHORT TERM OR THE LONG TERM. FIGHT FOR THE NEW DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY. IT WILL ENSURE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTS, A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE AND SENATE, AND A SUPREME COURT THAT SUPPORTS WOMEN AND DEMOCRACY. NOTWITHSTANDING MY CONFIDENCE, CHECK OUT MY NOTE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PIECE.
DON’’T TAKE VICTORY FOR GRANTED. GIVE MONEY TO JOE BIDEN. WRITE POSTCARDS. DO WHATEVER YOU CAN. VOTE EARLY. EARLY VOTING HAS BEGUN IN MANY STATES.
Check out the website: lenspoliticalnotes.com, US Congress Political Note #315 Patricia Timmons-Goodwin NC 08, Political Note #289 Cynthia Wallace NC 09, Political Note #199 Joe Cunningham SC 01, Political Note #202 Inc. Elaine Luria VA 02, Political Note #303 Cameron Webb VA 05, Political Note #224 Inc Abigail Spanberger, VA 07, Political Note #191 Inc. Lucy McBath GA 06. US Senate Candidates: Political Note #217 Jaime Harrison, South Carolina; Political Note #269 Rev. Dr. Raphael Warnock, Georgia (B); Political Note #283 Jon Ossoff Georgia (A), Political Note #250 Cal Cunningham North Carolina, State Level candidates: Political Note #323 Arizona and Texas, Political Note #324 Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania
Political Note #325 North Carolina state legislature candidate
2020 General Election
Governor Roy Cooper, US Senate Candidate Cal Cunningham, both up for election in 2020, and Yvonne Lewis Holley, candidate for Lt. Governor.
In 2017, Virginia Democrats, though burdened by gerrymandered districts, flipped enough Republican seats in the House of Delegates so that they were one “coin flip” away from being tied with the Republicans for seats in the House of Delegates. In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled that the Virginia Attorney General could accept, on behalf of Virginia, revised House and Senate districts that lower courts had imposed because of racial gerrymandering. Virginia completed the transformation of the House of Delegates and State Senate to Democratic majorities in the November, 2019 election.
North Carolina, Virginia’s neighbor to the south, has been going through its very own process. In 2018, through a dramatic increase in Democratic turnout, the Republican supermajority in the House and Senate was broken. In 2020, Democrats accepted districts the Republicans proposed to the state Supreme Court so the new districts would be in effect for the November, 2020 election. These districts are still unfairly gerrymandered, but not nearly as unfair as the old districts.
Democrats are attempting to gain majorities in both the state House of Representatives and the state Senate. To achieve that goal, North Carolina has the benefit of strong leadership through the blog Flip NC. It clarifies what seats and candidates to focus on to seek to gain majorities in the House and Senate. Democrats will need to flip a net of six seats in the House of Representatives to gain a majority, a net of five seats in the Senate to gain a majority. I encourage you to donate to Flip NC at their site: https://flipnc.org. They are doing a great job.
House of Representatives (Need to gain 6 seats)
The North Carolina House of Representatives has 120 members. 65 are Republican. 55 are Democrats. FlipNC has identified eleven Democratic challengers to support, the three most vulnerable Democrats to defend, and five more Democratic incumbents who are less vulnerable but need a defense.
Here are the challengers. Those with the greatest likelihood of flipping a Republican seat are noted first, marked with a score that indicates, all things being equal, the margin a Democratic candidate is likely to achieve in the district.
- Ricky Hurtado NC HD 63 https://rickyhurtadofornc.com (Burlington area) +4 teaches at UNC Chapel Hill and is Co-Executive Director of an initiative to support first generation college students. A child of immigrants and a first-generation college student himself as well as a Cain-Morehead Scholar at UNC-Chapel Hill, his principal goal is to break down educational barriers.
- Brian Farkas NC HD 09 https://brianfarkas.com Greenville (+1) was a manager in a US Attorney’s Office, and the National Institute of Health before returning to his family’s architecture firm as Director of Client Relations and Development. He is a member of the Board of Directors of the Greenville-ENC Alliance intended to improve the business climate in the area.
- Frances Vinell Jackson NC HD 45 https://francesjackson2020.com (Fayetteville area) (+1) is the chair of the Steward Ministry of the Kingdom Impact Global Ministries. She has served on several local boards, as a County Magistrate, and has taught school. She spent eleven years as a transportation and community planner in the Cumberland County Planning Department and was a transit analyst for the City of Fayetteville. She has a doctorate in public policy from Walden University. She graduated from North Carolina A & T and has a Master’s degree from Fayetteville State.
- Aimy Steele NC HD 82 https://aimysteele2020.com (Kannapolis, northwest of Charlotte) (-3) is running again after coming within 6 points of victory against the incumbent in 2018 and after the District has been redrawn. She is the wife of a pastor, mother of five children, a military child who came to value education in a Department of Defense school in Japan. An elementary school principal, she is an advocate for public education, particularly for the creation of a system of free preschool programs for three and four-year olds.
- Nicole Quick NC HD 59 https://quickfornc.com (suburban Greensboro) (-3) has had a career in business and a life changing event. In business, she was a manager for Guilford Mills and a project manager creating efficiencies for Brayton International, a division of Steelcase. When her son was diagnosed with autism, she left work to provide the support he needed. Now she leads workshops on how to work with children with autism in inclusive classrooms. As a legislator, she will be committed to educating all children and efficiency in government.
- Dan Besse NC HD 74 https://www.bessefornc.com Forsyth County (suburban Winston-Salem (-4) is running for this Open Seat which had a Republican incumbent, but is trending toward the Democrats. A former legal aid attorney, his practice focuses on environmental and employment law. He is a five-time elected city councilor and an instructor at local colleges.
- Adam Ericson NC HD 20 https://www.electadamericson.com (Wilmington) (-5) is a teacher and the lacrosse coach at New Hanover High School. He explains that he has no political ambitions, but is fed up with the current legislature’s priorities – corporate tax breaks instead of funding schools, ensuring clean water, and working toward health care for everyone. He says he can’t just sit on the sidelines.
- Gail Young NC HD 83 https://www.gailyoungnc.com (Concord, northeast of Charlotte) (-6) spent 28 years in local government, retiring as Mecklenberg County’s Director of Land Use and Environmental Services. She lost in 2018 53-47 in a district that is becoming more Democratic to an incumbent who might be called a gun fanatic and was weak enough to draw a serious primary challenge.
- Virginia Cox-Daugherty NC HD 12 https://virginiacoxdaugherty.com (Kinston, south of Greenville) (-6) is a former principal, teacher, and director with enough degrees so you need a whole hand to count them. She has an education doctorate and a bible doctorate, an education and a business master’s degree, and an undergraduate degree from Elizabeth City State University, a part of the UNC system. Retired now, she is on the Lenoir County Board of Elections and is running for the House.
- Emily Bunch Nicholson NC HD 01 https://www.emily4house.com (Albemarle Sound Area) (-7) is a former high school and community college teacher who has spent the last five years in workforce development. She has been working in and is now running in a district with a substantial African American population that has not been voting in elections. She can win if she (or Joe Biden) can turn out a high percentage of this population.
- Jason Cain NC HD 51 https://www.cainfornc.com/ (Sanford, southwest of Raleigh) (-7) is an army veteran with five deployments in Iraq or Afghanistan. He has earned degrees from Campbell University, George Washington, and Harvard. He would fully fund education and support economic development in Sanford.
- Scott Brewer HD 66 https://www.brewerfornc.com/(Rockingham, in between Charlotte and Fayetteville) (-10) is the only incumbent on my list. He is taking on a challenge, having been appointed to this Republican leaning district that has been electing a Democrat. Judge Brewer has served as Chief District Judge in his circuit, created a teen court, and is known for having the most efficient family court in the state. He says about North Carolina’s aspirations: “As a state, we use to promise we would invest in our schools, our great university system, our roads and our infrastructure. That promise led to the Research Triangle Park, some of the best Medical Schools, and one of the best road systems in the nation. It’s time that North Carolina start leading the nation again.”
North Carolina has a few vulnerable incumbents in its House of Representatives. If Democrats are going to achieve a majority, they will need to win those seats and gain six more. Help out with the most the challengers who can win. Pick six. Or more. North Carolina can do as well as Virginia. North Carolinians say they can do better.
North Carolina Senate (Need 5 seats)
North Carolina has 50 members of its Senate. 29 are Republicans; 21 are Democrats. Democrats need four seats to create a tie in the Senate. They need five seats to create a majority. The same redistricting agreement makes it possible, but hard, to gain a majority in the House applies to the Senate as well. There is one more thing to consider. If there is a tie in the Senate, the Lt. Governor breaks that tie. In North Carolina, the Lt. Governor is elected independent of the Governor. Even though Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is favored for election, there is no guarantee that he will bring the Democratic Lt. Governor nominee along with him. If you are looking for candidates to support for state Senate, you might want to begin with #4 or #5 below.
- DeAndrea Salvador NC SD 39 https://salvadorfornc.com (North Charlotte) +25 is an organizer and an entrepreneur. A 5th generation Charlottean and a graduate of UNC Charlotte, she founded a non-profit to help local residents with utility costs. She serves on several boards and, with the redistricting, should become the next State Senator from North Charlotte.
- Sarah Crawford NC SD 18 https://www.sarahfornc.com (North Raleigh) +6 has been a non-profit leader. Currently she heads a non-profit that assists families in attaining economic stability and prosperity. Previously she has worked with a center focused on children with developmental disabilities.
- Harper Peterson NC SD 9 https://www.harperpetersonsenate9.com (Wilmington) +4 is a less vulnerable incumbent than he was in 2018 y when he won by less than 300 votes. Redistricting has made SD 9 more Democratic. He is a former member of Wilmington’s City council and former mayor of the city. In those roles, he fought water contamination and advocated for the film industry.
- Kirk deViere NC SD 19 https://www.kirkdeviere.com (Fayetteville area) +2 is the most vulnerable incumbent Senator. He was elected in 2018 with a margin of less than 500 votes. An army veteran and former member of the Fayetteville City Council, his career was as the owner and president of a marketing, advertising, and public relations agency.
- Terri LeGrand NC SD 31 https://www.terrilegrand.org (Winston-Salem) -5 is a graduate of Wake Forest Law School and is currently a financial aid administrator at that university. In 2018, she ran a creditable race in a very right leaning district. Previously, as she describes it, she worked for a “just and equitable community” through her work on a variety of community boards.
- Tess Judge NC SD 1 https://www.tess4ncsenate.com (Kitty Hawk) -6 is the general manager of C & S Realty, a responsibility she took over after her husband’s death. She is also general manager of the Wilbur Wright Association. Prior to her husband’s death, she and her husband were honored as co-citizens of the year. She has been a member or Chair of several local boards. Her interests include protecting land and water resources and encouraging tourism.
- Allen Wellons NC SD 11 http://wellonsfornc.com (Rocky Mount, northwest of Greenville) -7 is the managing partner of a law firm and also manages a family farm. He was a state senator for six years at the turn of the century and touts his role in passing a patients’ bill of rights, raising teacher pay, and reforming the election of judges.
- Donna Lake NC SD 7 https://www.donnalake2020.com (Goldsboro) -9 retired as an Air Force Colonel. She is a nurse and was the medical CEO for the Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in SD 7. She has been teaching at East Carolina’s Brody School of Medicine for several years, She and her husband, an Air Force Pilot, settled in Goldsboro after retirement. Her degrees from Stony Brook University on Long Island, the University of Oklahoma, and Touro University International reflect the peripatetic life of a military professional.
Statewide elections
Roy Cooper to be reelected Governor. https://roycooper.com A former Morehead scholar at UNC Chapel Hill, he also got his law degree there. He grew up on a family farm in North Carolina and returned to practice law in the area. He served in the NC House, Senate and as Attorney General before being elected Governor in 2016.
Yvonne Lewis Holley for election as Lt. Governor. https://www.yvonnelewisholley.com A state procurement specialist before being elected to the North Carolina House of Representatives, she would be North Carolina’s first Black Lt. Governor. Her father was a member of the Montford Port Marines, the first Black men to serve in the US Marine Corp. The Lt. Governor election is separate from the election of the governor. Should the NC Senate be tied, the Lt. Governor, presiding over the Senate, has the tie breaking vote. Her Republican opponent, Mark Robinson, is also Black and is an advocate for gun rights.
Josh Stein for reelection as Attorney General. https://www.joshstein.org Son of a civil rights attorney, he is a graduate of Dartmouth, Harvard Law School and the Kennedy School. He has been a North Carolina State Senator and the Deputy Attorney General for Consumer Protection and was elected Attorney General in 2008.
Cal Cunningham for election as US Senator. https://www.calfornc.com A graduate of UNC – Chapel Hill and of its law school as well as a graduate of the London School of Economic, he has served as a North Carolina State Senator and as a member of the Judge Advocate’s Corp. In that last role, he prosecuted the first case since the 1960s against a civilian contractor under the Uniform Code of Military Justice. Since an unsuccessful US Senate campaign in 2010, he has been associated with an environmental services company with a specialized waste reduction system. See Political Note #250 lenspoliticalnotes.com
Three Notes about State Legislatures
Political Note #322 Arizona Senate and House of Representatives, Texas House of Representatives
Political Note #323 Michigan House of Representatives, Minnesota Senate, and Pennsylvania House of Representatives
Political Note #324 North Carolina Senate and House of Representatives
An additional comment about Amy Coney Barrett’s work
Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation would make protecting the Supreme Court harder. Take a look at her University of Pennsylvania Law Journal article: Congressional Originalism https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1619&context=jcl She and her co-author note that adherence to the concept of originalism could require invalidating paper money, reversing Brown v Board of Education, limiting ways to fund social security, reversing the creation of West Virginia as a state, and the possible illegitimacy of the 14th Amendment.
She and her co-author argue that these possible unconstitutional provisions are safe because of the procedural protections that prevent havoc-wreaking cases from coming to the Supreme Court. They acknowledge that havoc-wreaking cases might not always be protected by the Court’s procedure. The Supreme Court, they say, is not obliged to take on every case that violates the original meaning of the US Constitution. The Court only takes on a case if the timing is right. As best I can understand her description, the right timing for taking on a case that will create great change in the country is based on the extent to which the result will be accepted by the populace.
Barrett and her co-author mention the possible illegitimacy of the 14th Amendment. They might have just as easily mentioned the possible illegitimacy of the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments. The objection originalists raise has to do with failing to include the rebelling states in the ratification process of these amendments.
Despite the shared basis for all three amendments’ possible illegitimacy according to originalists, the only Amendment under attack is the 14th. Barrett and her co-author explain that originalists are not obliged to review everything that is constitutionally objectionable, only what is timely to object to. It is, apparently, timely to raise questions about the due process requirements of the 14th Amendment, not timely to raise questions about the prohibition of slavery.
I’m glad to know that Amy Coney Barrett believes that restoring the legality of slavery would be objectionable to the American populace.
