Look at the recent Daily Bits on the website. A judicial convention.
2020 General Election
Translate Joe Biden.
A recent gaffe — 2019. In front of an Hispanic and Asian audience. “Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids,”
Translation: Poor black, Hispanic, Asian, and white kids are just as talented as rich white, Asian, Hispanic, and black kids. Sadly, there aren’t as many rich Hispanic and black kids.
An older gaffe – 2007. In a newspaper interview, assessing the Democratic candidates for President, of which he was one. “I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,” Biden said. “I mean, that’s a storybook, man.”
Translation: Most suburban white voters think city politicians are corrupt. Especially black city politicians. Even the ablest and most honorable black politicians have regional accents and the visible scars of middle age. A bright, young African American like Barack Obama who does not have a regional accent, who, except for the color of his skin, looks and sounds like the kind of upper middle class candidate suburbanites like to vote for will be a formidable candidate for the 2008 Presidential nomination.
Lauren Underwood https://www.underwoodforcongress.com/ was elected to Congress in 2018. From Denny Hastert’s old district.
Hastert was a Republican Speaker of the House. An ex wrestling coach. A convict. After his political career was over, he was convicted for abusing boys on his wrestling team. As Speaker, he introduced the Hastert Rule – hard ball. Nothing would be considered by the House unless a majority of Republicans supported the proposal. His was a Republican district – electing him and voting, with a single exception in recent history, for Republicans for President. This district is composed of small cities of 15,000, 25,000, 35,000. The largest is Napierville with fewer than 150,000 people.
Lauren Underwood is a near-fit for the translation of Joe Biden’s description of Barack Obama: a bright, young African American … who does not have a regional accent, who, except for the color of [her] skin, looks and sounds like the kind of upper middle class candidate suburbanites like to vote for.
She is cautious, thoughtful, deliberate. She was in the right place. She was willing and able to act when the time came. Some turning points in Lauren Underwood’s life and career:
- Her family moved from outside of Cleveland to Napierville when she was a toddler – a city that is 75% white, 5% black. Lauren Underwood grew up a member of a very small minority.
- As young girl, Lauren Underwood was diagnosed with a rare and serious heart condition. Attached to the care she received, she decided to become a nurse.
- One of few African Americans in high school, Lauren Underwood learned about the work of government as a member of the city agency reviewing housing discrimination.
- As a nursing student, one course was transformative. Lauren Underwood recalls a course in health care policy that moved her toward policy rather than direct care nursing.
- As a nursing student at John’s Hopkins, not far from Washington, DC, Lauren Underwood had a summer internship with Illinois’s junior Senator – Barack Obama. Later, while working at HHS, asked about her long-term goal by a supervisor, she said US Senator.
- Graduating from Johns Hopkins with two Master’s Degrees — in nursing and health policy, Lauren Underwood got a job in the US Department of Health and Human Services. After some time working on health crises — unusual contagious diseases, natural disasters, she became a Senior Policy Advisory to the Department Secretary. Working to make the Affordable Care Act work.
- Affected by the election of Donald Trump, she wrested a promise, in a public forum, from her Illinois Member of Congress. He promised his vote would not make obtaining health insurance more difficult for those with previously existing conditions (like Lauren Underwood’s heart condition). He violated that promise. Lauren Underwood announced her run against him.
Lauren Underwood stood out. She was the youngest candidate in the primary. She was the only woman. She was the only African American. She won 57% of the vote. She raised money for the general election. She raised a lot of money. She outraised the incumbent and defeated him. By 14,871 votes — the 18th narrowest Democratic Congressional victory of 2018.
Republicans think she is vulnerable in 2020. So far, six Republicans are competing to get the nomination. That’s a lot of Republicans who want to run against her. They probably relish the idea of running against a young African-American woman in this very white suburban district.
Lauren Underwood has minimized reasons to oppose her. She has been a cautious Member of Congress. Govtrak rates her just to the right of center among Democrats. Govtrak rates her as slightly more of a leader than several of the freshmen members of her class, but not as high as, say, fellow freshman and former Secretary of HHS (to choose someone with similar interests) Donna Shalala.
Lauren Underwood has been cautious about formal affiliations. She is certainly not a member of The Squad. She has not joined the Progressive Caucus. She has not joined New Democratic Coalition (the moderate caucus). She has not joined the Blue Dogs (the conservative Democratic caucus). She has joined the Congressional Black Caucus (which includes every African American Member of Congress) and the Black Maternal Health Caucus. That’s it.
Lauren Underwood has been cautious about introducing bills as well. With a few other freshmen, she has introduced bills addressing the problem of foreign interference in elections. With others, she has introduced bills making it easier for veterans to get preventive health care. She knows what she is talking about on this issue.
Her caution may pay off in the long run. Hard workers who do not strive for attention can become powerful in the House of Representatives. To become powerful, they’ve got to last. One of those six Republicans gunning for Loren Underwood https://www.underwoodforcongress.com/ will get a chance in the general election. Loren Underwood will need every dime she can raise to win that election. She is doing her job of raising money. She is also spending some of that money early. She needs to keep on raising money. Go to her website and donate to her campaign. That donation will help us all.
Vulnerable Congressional Democrats in the order of their margin of victory – narrowest first. With the money they have raised date to date and their cash on hand at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2019. Figures below: $100 = $100,000; $1,000 = $1,000,000
- Ben McAdams UT 04 Elected by 694 votes $783/$484
- J. Cox CA 21 Elected by 862 votes $894/$644
- Kendra Horn OK 05 Elected by 3,338 votes $1,075/$795
- Jared Golden ME 02 Elected by 3,509 votes $623/$495
- Lucy McBath GA 06 Elected by 3,634 votes $1,294/$929
- Xochitil Torres Small NM 03 Elected by 3,722 votes $1,099/$1,012
- Andy Kim NJ 03 Elected by 3,973 votes $1,165/$970
- Joe Cunningham SC 01 Elected by 4,082 votes $1,353/$970
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell FL 26 Elected by 4,119 votes $1,134/$934
- Anthony Brindisi NY 22 Elected by 4,373 votes $908/$771
- Gil Cisneros CA 39 Elected by 6,711 votes $593/$390
- Abigail Spanberger VA 07 Elected by 6,784 votes $1,153/$1,025
- Cynthia Axne IA 03 Elected by 7,709 votes $1,037/$841
- Josh Harder CA 10 Elected by 9,980 votes $1,702/$1,406
- Lizzie Fletcher TX 07 Elected by 12,317 votes $1,112/$945
- Max Rose NY 11 Elected by 12,382 votes $1,453/$1,216
- Elissa Slotkin MI 08 Elected by 13,098 votes $1,322/$1,085
- Lauren Underwood IL 14 Elected by 14,871 votes $1,105/$766
Four from the Northeast.
Four from the Southeast.
Three from the Midwest.
Seven from the West.
