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DO NOT TAKE THE HOUSE FOR GRANTED. COMPLACENCY KILLS CAMPAIGNS
……The Solid South. Making inroads.
……There are 111 contests in southeastern congressional districts. A lot of them are Solidly Republican. A few are Solidly Democratic. There are four Lean or Likely or Solid Democrat seats which we can expect to flip. Shalala in FL 27, McGrath in KY 06, McCready in NC 09, and Wexton in VA 10. I am not so certain about Shalala, but money is not the issue.……The review of northeastern Congressional seats suggested that eight Republican seats might be flipped. That brought the target number down from 24 to 16. The four above brings the target to twelve.
……Two of the candidates below have 50% or more probability of winning. Assume two more flips. This is simplistic. We know the calculations are uncertain. Only 538 uses this probability calculation. Furthermore, because 538 keeps updating, calculations reviewed a few days ago may have changed. We know things will change between now and November 6. Nevertheless, review the contested seats below and assume two more flips. After the Southeast, the target is down to 10.……To make these flips happen, who should you support financially? See the strategies and the brief descriptions below. I like the two candidates with a 50% probability of winning; I love some of the candidates with a lower probability of winning.
Follow a strategy. Or mix and match.
……Strategy alternatives for the southeast.……Strategy 1: Support those at 50% or better:…Leslie Cockburn of VA 05, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of FL 26…Strategy 2: Support those who are between 25% and 50% in their chance to be elected. Money could make a difference for these candidates.…Kathleen Manning of NC 13, Abigail Spanberger of VA 07, Linda Coleman of NC 02, Kristen Carlson of FL 15, Carolyn Bordeaux of GA 07, Elaine Luria of VA 02, Nancy Soderberg lf FL 06, Mary Barzee Flores of FL 25.…Strategy 3: Support the underdogs…Clarke Tucker of AR 02, David Shapiro of FL 16, Lucy McBath of GA 06, Lauren Baer of FL 18, Richard Ojeda of WV 03, Joe Cunningham of SC 01.…Strategy 4: Mix and match. Focus on some states. Do what makes sense to you. Support candidates you like, or love.……Here are candidates’ contests in the Southeast — listed as a compiler of various analyses might list them. The categories don’t all line up with the 538 percentage likelihood of getting elected. For these categories, 538 is one of a few analysts I look at.
……Toss up…1. Democratic Challenger Journalist Leslie Cockburn for Virginia’s 5th District. 538 calculates that she has a 54% chance of being elected. ……Cockburn (pronounced co burn) has written books or produced documentaries , usually with her husband, for decades. She has raised money. She is a progressive in this district anchored by Charlottesville and the University of Virginia. A book about Israel from the 1990s has the support of J Street, but is condemned as antisemitic by some Jewish organizations. Her Republican opponent is distillery owner Denver Riggleman,. His strongest beliefs include opposition to land taking by eminent domain.
Leslie Cockburn lost 53 – 47.
……Tilt R…2. Democratic Challenger Fund Raiser Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Florida’s 26th District. 538 calculates that she has a slightly better than 50% chance of being elected.……Mucarsal-Powell is seeking to take advantage of the district’s pre-Trump history of being Democratic and her fund raising abilities. Her opponent, incumbent Republican Congressman Carlos Cubelo, works hard to appear as a moderate. He has taken enough steps in support of gun safety to be endorsed by at least one pro gun safety group. Not an easy win.
Debbie Mucarsal-Powell won 51 – 49.
……3. Democratic Challenger Philanthropist Kathleen Manning for North Carolina’s 13th District. 538 calculates that she has a 41% chance of being elected.……Is this a culture clash a Democrat can win in Greensboro, NC? Her husband owns an international chemical company. She was an attorney in a big firm in town. They have been local philanthropists and members of the national Jewish establishment. He was head of Hillel; she was head of the Jewish Federation of America. Around the same time. The incumbent Republican is also part of a large and successful family business. He brings his commitment to gun ownership and evangelical Christianity to the contest. If the South is changing, Manning could win.
Kathleen Manning lost 52 – 46.
……4. Democratic Challenger former CIA operative Abigail Spanberger for Virginia’s 7th district. 538 calculates that she has a 38% chance of being elected.……Although not from the military, she continues the Democrats theme of men and women associated with defense. Spanberger sees national security, the economy, climate issues, and technology in an international context. Prior to her work for the CIA, she did investigations for the Post Office. This has become an issue. Her opponent is Republican incumbent David Brat who, surprisingly, defeated the House Majority Leader Eric Cantor from the right in a primary in 2014. Brat’s campaign inveigled the Post Office to give them Spanberger’spersonnel file. Whatever they learned has proved to not be worth the embarrassment of obtaining the files and the stupidity of getting caught.
Abigail Spanberger won 50 – 48.
……5. Democratic Challenger Navy Veteran Elaine Luria for Virginia’s 2nd District. 538 calculates that she has a 31% chance of being elected. ……Luria is a retired naval commander running for Congress in the Navy towns of Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Hampton. Female and Jewish. The world really has changed, but has it changed enough? She identified three watchwords for her campaign: Security, Equality, and Prosperity. She has the good fortune of an opponent with competence problems. The Republican incumbent’s campaign forged signatures for the independent campaign of an former Democrat, got caught, and saw the independent thrown off the ballot. Luria could add a fourth watchword to her campaign slogan — Integrity.
Elaine Luria won 51 – 49.
Lean R…6. Democratic Challenger former State Representative Linda Coleman for North Carolina’s 2nd District. 538 calculates that she has a 37% chance of being elected. ……Coleman is a smart, energetic African American running against a complacent Republican. Her Republican opponent has failed to use his Congressional ties, his Groton Prep School ties, and his Wake Forest University ties to raise money. She is running on a shoe string. He is running on a more elaborate shoe string of his own making. He has much less to spend than a worried incumbent Congressman should have. Complacency kills campaigns.
Linda Coleman lost 51 – 46.
……7. Democratic Challenger Former Judge Mary Barzee Flores for Florida’s 25th District. 538 calculates that she has a 28% chance of being elected……She went from tending bar and waiting on tables to waiving a baton as an aspiring conductor to passing the bar to working as a public defender to election as a judge. Barzee Flores is taking on a Florida institution — the Diaz-Balarts. A Cuban American aristocrat, Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balarat’s aunt was Fidel’s first wife, the family are central among exiles. A Barzee Flores victory would mark a culture change in Florida. Hispanic, but not Cuban. A Democrat in what had been a Republican world.
Mary Barzee Flores lost 60 – 40.
……Likely R…8. Democratic Challenger Attorney Kristen Carlson for Florida’s 15th District. 538 calculates that she has a 34% chance of being elected.……Carlson lobbied for orange juice. What could be more Floridian than that? She makes a case for the work as a practical and productive relationship between industry and government. She touts her fights for the integrity of orange juice, opposing sellers of fake orange juice. She makes a case for liberal values, too. She is running for an open Republican seat against Republican Ross Spano, an extreme right wing state legislator.
Kristen Carlson lost 53 – 47.
……9. Democratic Challenger Professor Carolyn Bordeaux for Georgia’s 7th District. 538 calculates that she has a 32% chance of being elected.……Bordeaux is a pro. She is a student of public finance. She was the Georgia Senate’s financial guru during the 2007/8 financial crisis. earning the gratitude of the majority Republicans and minority Democrats alike. Running in a district that has become majority minority, she is testing how much Georgia has changed. Will the people of Georgia’s 7th District elect a Democrat who knows what she is doing and depose the Chairman of the Republican Study Committee?
Carolyn Bordeaux lost 50 – 50 (419 votes).
……10. Democratic Challenger Former Ambassador Nancy Soderberg for Florida’s 6tth District. 538 calculates that she has a 28% chance of being elected.……Soderberg is an international expert on international affairs. She is running for a seat that is open because the incumbent, Republican Ron DeSantis is running for Governor. He has soured his own campaign with racism. Would Republican Michael Walz be a worthy successor? A former Green Beret and Lt. Colonel, he touts his contributions to Fox News and his work with Dick Cheney. One more culture clash here.
Nancy Soderberg lost 56 – 44.
11. Democratic Challenger State Representative Clarke Tucker for Arkansas’ 2nd District. 538 calculates that she has a 19% chance of being elected.……This could be a contest from another era. Genteel is close to the right word. Clarke Tucker could remind you of a time when Arkansas sent people like William Fulbright to Washington. Tucker’s opponent, Republican incumbent French Hill, could remind you of a time when Arkansas sent people like French Hill to Washington. A part of the Republican establishment, a George HW Bush supporter, he was overwhelmed by the new Republicans. Now he has remade himself as a Trump acolyte and got himself elected to Congress. Can he keep his job in a district that sometimes votes Democratic, but is part of deeply Republican Arkansas?
Clarke Tucker lost 52 — 46
……12. Democratic Challenger Attorney David Shapiro for Florida’s 16th District. 538 calculates that he has a 13% chance of being elected.……Not genteel. Shapiro is a personal injury lawyer. A tough business. He has taken on a tough fight. The incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan has been a target of corruption complaints. In his automobile sales business. In his campaigns. In his role in Congress. This House Ethics committee called his failures honest mistakes. The Justice Department declined to prosecute. Smoke or Fire?.
David Shapiro lost 55 – 45.
13. Democratic Challenger Gun Safety Activist Lucy McBath for Georgia’s 6th District. 538 calculates that she has a 13% chance of being elected.……This is the district we all got excited about when Democrat Jon Ossoff ran in a special election. Republican Karen Handel won handily. Can an African American activist do better than Ossoff? Democrat McBathhas been a flight attendant, a staff member for Virginia’s first African American governor, and a mother who lost her son to gun violence. Her candidacy is part of the activism that was activated by her son’s death. We know that GA 06 has the potential to flip. Can that happen so soon after the special election loss? Is McBath the person to do it?
Lucy McBath won 50 – 50 (3193 votes)
……14. Democratic Challenger former State Department official Lauren Baer for Florida’s 18th District. 538 calculates that she has a 12% chance of being elected.……Her family owns furniture stores in Florida. Lauren Baer works with Madelaine Albright. Her success is a triumph of meritocracy. Harvard, Oxford on a Marshall Scholarship, Yale Law School. Can she be a triumph at the ballot box? The incumbent, Republican Brian Mast, is a veteran who lost his legs. After Parkland, he wrote a New York Times Op Ed column supporting some gun safety proposals. Is that enough in this district that borders Parkland? The most recent poll shows him leading by 3 points.
Lauren Baer lost 54 – 46.
……15. Democratic Challenger State Senator Richard Ojeda for West Virginia’s 3rd District. 538 calculates that he has a 10% chance of being elected.……Ojeda might get the award for toughest and angriest Democrat. A veteran who had his men fight each other when firefights were over. A veteran of combat who recalls almost being killed five times. A veteran who was almost killed a sixth time when he ran for the state legislature (He was putting a bumper sticker on a childhood friend’s truck; with permission, he thought. He was attacked from behind with a crowbar.) A veteran who has contempt for corporations that have destroyed West Virginia. (After taking his seat in the state legislature, lobbyists came to visit. He threw them out. Exit pursued by expletives.) A veteran who will bring his anger to Congress. If he can defeat a more polished and wealthier Republican.
Richard Ojeda lost 56 – 44.
16. Democratic Challenger Attorney Joe Cunningham for South Carolina’s 1st District. 538 calculates that he has a 10% chance of being elected.……This is tricky. He campaigned in this coastal Carolina district expecting to face Republican incumbent Mark Sanford. Remember him and his Appalachian Trail: Faithless to his wife, faithless to his party’s president, faithless to his constituents. Cunningham found himself facing primary winner Republican State Rep Katie Arrington. Her primary victory was no accident. Her automobile crash was an accident for which she bore no responsibility. ……Joe Cunningham is running against an accident victim who required major surgery, who remains in the race in this heavily Republican district, but cannot campaign. Cannot debate. Cannot be attacked. Cunningham can only talk about himself. Born and raised in Kentucky. He came to Charleston as an undergraduate. Transferred to FAU to become an engineer. managed marina construction in Naples, Florida. Went to law school at Northern Kentucky University. Joined Lyle & Lyle attorneys in Charleston. Practices construction law. He opposes off shore drilling, supports term limits to end DC corruption, would cut red tape for veterans, wants to reduce health care costs, opposes Trump’s “job-killing” tariffs, describes climate change as the greatest non-military threat to the country, deplores voter suppression and gerrymandering, would keep government out of women’s health care decisions, opposes discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity, and would use background checks to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally ill. He has to talk about himself and his views.
Joe Cunningham won 51 – 49.
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