January 24th , 2026 Len’s Political Note #784 Ami Bera California 03
2026 General Election
California changed its constitution. They would match Texas’s Trump-inspired mid-decade redistricting effort to flip five Democratic Congressional districts. Texas may not achieve its “flipping” goal. Nor can we be certain that California’s constitutional temporary Governor Newsom-response to Texas will flip five Republican seats. I think it is more likely that California will achieve its goal than Texas.
California 03, with a Republican incumbent, is one of the targeted districts. California 03 used to extend along the Nevada-California border, north and south of the bend in the maps. The district stretched far enough west to include suburbs east of Sacramento. The revised California 03 still touches the Nevada border but now extends west to include all of Sacramento and more of its suburbs.
According to an analysis by Inside Elections, California 03 had been a R+9 Republican leaning district. Redistricting transformed the district to D+6 Democratic leaning. By including so much of Sacramento, Ami Bera, the incumbent in California 06, sees himself invited in. Ami Bera has represented Sacramento and environs in Congress since 2013.
California 03’s incumbent Republican is Kevin Kiley. He is a smart young man of forty with an undergraduate degree from Harvard and a JD from Yale. Is he smart enough to figure out a way to stay in Congress?
Immediately after the November, 2025 amendment confirmation vote, Ami Bera announced he would run for CA 06. Kevin Kiley is still ambivalent. He is unsure whether he is running for CA 03 or CA 06 or some other congressional district.
Ami Bera is sixty years old. He was the third Indian-American to enter Congress and the first of the five who make up the current generation of Indian-Americans in the House of Representatives. Ami Bera’s father immigrated to the United states in 1958 from Gujarat, India. His mother came two years later. Gujarat is a region with its own native language located on the western side of India south of Pakistan. Gujarat is also the home of Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister.
Babulal and Kanta Bera named their first child Amerish Babulal Bera. The shortened version Ami came later. The older Babulal did what work he could, went to school, became an engineer, and then became a school teacher. They were driven parents. Years later, when Ami Bera was a congressman running for reelection, the elder Babulal used the money he had saved to distribute funds for donations through others to help his son. The elder Bera broke the law, committing fraud to exceed the limits on donations to individual candidates. For his crimes, the elderly Babulal was sentenced to a year and a day in jail. Part of Babulal’s plea deal included an agreement that the ill Kanta Bera not be prosecuted.
Earlier in their lives the drive to ensure their son’s success included sending him to get a BA and then an MD at the University of California, Irvine. Ami Bera made a success of it. He became the medical director of care management for Sacramento’s Mercy HealthCare. Subsequently, he was appointed chief medical officer for Sacramento Count and later was appointed associate dean for admissions at the University of California Davis Medical School. Five years into the latter job, he ran for Congress, raised more money than the incumbent, but lost to Republican Dan Lungren by 8 points.
Over the years, Ami Bera learned something about the impact of redistricting. In 2012, District 7 was changed. It had lost most of what was not Sacramento and became more Democratic. Ami Bera ran against Dan Lungren again. This time he won 51-49.
Ami Bera learned to behave as if he might lose every election he competed in, He was right about 2014, defeating the Republican, a former Congressman Doug Ose, by less than a point. The 2016 election was nearly as close. During the course of that campaign, his father was convicted. What’s more, a coalition of the unwilling deprived Ami Bera of the local party endorsement. Nevertheless, he earned the endorsement of the state Democratic party and the nomination. He defeated the Republican Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones 51-49. These close elections could have driven a different man into some other kind of work.
After 2016, the campaigns got easier for Ami Bera. He began winning by larger margins, sometimes by double digits. The 2022 switch from California 07 to California 06 after redistricting was uneventful. What was not uneventful was actually being in Congress.
When Ami Bera was first elected, he took the Problem Solvers Caucus seriously. He never produced bundles of bills. He worked on compromises and is his politics were hard to pigeonhole. He was a business-oriented Congressman, but that orientation was particularly in support of small businesses. Even that was not always the case. In 2022, he was among the few Democrats who opposed a bill to strengthen the use of antitrust as a mechanism for managing anti-competitive behavior by Big Tech firms.
Ami Bera has become a foreign policy and international issues specialist. He serves on the Committee on Foreign Affairs. He is the ranking member of the Indo-Pacific subcommittee and serves on the human rights subcommittee. He serves on the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence including the counter terrorism and the strategic technology subcommittees.
Ami Bera was expected to take positions on Indian issues. In 2016, he urged Pakistan to take steps to stop terrorists acts against India. That same year, he was full of praise for the Indian Prime Minister’s speech to a joint session of the United States Congress. Really, it was the American recognition of India’s emergence as an international leader that Ami Bera was praising.
Ami Bera supported Israel throughout his Congressional career. Recently, though, he has found a new balance. In 2024, he refused to attend Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of Congress, explaining that Netanyahu was the principal obstacle to a peace agreement and he had not eased Palestinian’s suffering in Gaza. In a 2025 speech, he recognized that Hamas had finally freed their hostages and condemned the dire situation in Gaza. He again urged Israel to take action to address the suffering there.
When he could, Ami Bera has supported an economic foreign policy pivot to what Europeans call the Far East, expanding American trade with both East Asian and South Asian countries. Trump’s year in office has included trade wars with China operating in a way that made that pivot complicated. Ami Bera keeps trying. He was part of a Congressional group that urged the United States to provide support to Japan in its conflicts with China.
Ami Bera is a mainstream Democrat who has moved the mainstream toward the Pacific and Indian Oceans. For the long run, notwithstanding the need to confront Russia over Ukraine, the need to contain Donald Trump’s “war” with Europe, and the need to manage Trump’s new focus on the Americas, Ami Bera’s direction reflects the United States most important foreign policy and business interests. Help him stay in Congress. Help the Democrats flip California 03. DONATE.
Other Close California Races After Redistricting
California 48 Ten Democrats are running in the June 2 top two primary against Republican incumbent Darrell Issa to represent this district which shifted from R+20 to D+.01.
California 45 Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran has four Republicans looking to come in second in the June 2 top two nonpartisan primary in this district which shifted from D+1 to D+5. DONATE to the still vulnerable first term Derek Tran. See Len’s Political Note #717.
California 47 Incumbent Democrat Dave Min has a Democratic opponent and five Republicans each of whom hope to come in second in the June 2 primary for this district which shifted from D+2 to D+6. DONATE to Dave Min. See Len’s Political Note #771
California 49 Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin has three Republicans running for second place in the June 2 primary for this district which shifted from D+3 to D+6. DONATE to Mike Levin’s campaign.
California 06. At least eight Democrats and three Republicans are running for the top two spots in this district which Ami Bera left for California 03. If Democrats cannot protect California 06, winning California 03 losses its meaning. We should watch polls and fund raising among the Democrats and support a candidate well before the June 2 primary. Otherwise, this district, which has shifted from D+13 to D+6, would be in danger of voting two Republicans into the top two spots – flipping the seat from Democrat to Republican.
California 13. Adam Gray is the Democratic incumbent after winning an extremely close race in 2024. Now the district has shifted from R+.01 to D+7. He has a Democratic primary opponent and three Republicans are running in the top two primary. DONATE to the Adam Gray campaign. See Len’s Political Note #716
California 22. Four Democrats are running to unseat the Republican Incumbent David Valadao who, taking in at least two million dollars, is the Member of Congress who receives this most in farm subsidies. This district has shifted from D+2 to D+7. Whichever Democrat comes in second will have a decent chance to defeat Valadao in the run-off/general election.
California 42. A former mayor Robert Garcia was elected to Congress in 2022. He has become influential and was elected the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee. Redistricting left California 42 as D+10. That was a transforming shift from its previous D+38. DONATE. Even at D+10 Robert Garcia warrants support.
