Len’s Political Note #771 Dave Min California 47

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December 3rd , 2025          Len’s Political Note #771   Dave Min California 47

 2026                                        General Election

 Dave Min is a progressive in Congress.  Consider his first four policy statements on his policy page:

  • There are no compromises when it comes to women’s access to abortion and contraception.
  • There is no place in America that is safe from the specter of gun violence….we are the only developed nation in the world with anywhere close to this level of gun violence.
  • … I cannot think of a more urgent issue to tackle than climate change. ….we are facing tectonic changes to our basic way of life unless we….reduce our reliance on fossil fuels….. .
  • The January 6 insurrection was horrifying…..this was …. the coordinated effort of Donald Trump and his closest supporters …to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

 Dave Min has followed in the footsteps of Katie Porter though, at 51, she is only two years older than he is.  She taught at the University of California Irvine Law School where her specialty was the banking system.  A year after her arrival, he came to teach at the University of California Irvine Law School where his specialty was the banking system.  She was elected the Representative from the district which was then called California 45.  After she left to run for the United States Senate, Dave Min was elected to replace Katie Porter.

This is not to say that they had similar lives.  Katie Porter was born in Iowa and grew up on a farm in that state, but really, her dad was a banker.  She went to a New England boarding school and then to Yale.  Dave Min was born in Providence, Rhode Island where his parents had come from Korea to get doctorate degrees at Brown University.  He grew up in the academic town of Palo Alto and went to Penn, a school that Senator Ted Cruz described while at Harvard Law School as one of the lesser Ivies.

Katie Porter is a graduate of Yale Law School.  She interned with Iowa’s Senator Chuck Grassley, clerked for the 8th Circuit in Little Rock, practiced law in Portland, Oregon, and directed the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges’ Business Bankruptcy Project. Before settling at the University of California, Irvine in 2011, she taught at law schools in Nevada and Iowa.  In 2012, California’s Attorney General, Kamala Harris, appointed her to monitor the implementation of California’s 9.5 billion share of the national $25 billion settlement of the mortgage scandal that had begun the banking crisis and recession of 2007-2008.  Katie Porter ran for Congress in 2018 and defeated Mimi Walters, the Republican incumbent 52-48 in a district identified as R+3.

Dave Min went from Penn to Harvard Law School and then to the Securities and Exchange Commission where he was a staff attorney. He then served as counsel to the Senate Banking Committee and its Chair Chuck Schumer.  Dave Min became the Associate Director for the think tank, the Center for American Progress and came to the University of California, Irvine in 2012, a year after Katie Porter joined the school as a tenured professor.

In 2018, both Dave Kim and Katie Porter ran for election to Congress in California 45.  In the top two non-partisan primary characteristic of the California political system, the incumbent Republican came in first with 51.7% of the vote, but that did not guarantee a win.  Katie Porter came in second 4,099 votes ahead of third place finisher Dave Kim – a difference of 2.5%. Katie Porter won the runoff and was elected to Congress.

Dave Min’s political recovery was quick.  In January, 2019, he announced for the California State Senate District 37.  This time he came in second in the non-partisan primary and defeated the Republican incumbent who, incidentally, had replaced Mimi Walters in the State Senate, the Congresswoman who Katie Porter defeated.  He was a busy state senator proposing bills to protect the survivors of domestic disputes and to protect children in custody cases by making those cases private.  He opposed offshore drilling and proposed legislation to allow termination of leases and compensation for that termination.

In 2024, after Katie Porter vacated the seat, now California 47, Dave Min announced he was running for this open seat which had a slight Democratic tilt.  He finished second in the non-partisan primary and won the run off by a 3% margin despite having been arrested and convicted for a Driving under the Influence offense. Urged to quit the race, he announced that instead of quitting the race, he was quitting drinking.

Since January, 2025, there has not been much opportunity for a Freshman Democratic Congressman to make a mark.  He had campaigned as a Californian who welcomed immigrants like his parents and voted against a bill making sexual violence and domestic violence deportable offenses.  He did join the Republicans in supporting the Laken Riley Act requiring the detention of non-citizens charged with a variety of crimes (DUI among them).

Dave Min is prepared for the 2026 campaign, with $1.7 million cash in hand reported on September 30.  As a result of Proposition 50 Gerrymandering the California 47 is slighter more Democratic than it was.  None of the three Republican announced candidates seems like a threat.  Michael Maxsenti, who says he left the corporate world, is running as an RFK Jr. supporter.  He has about $20,000 in cash available.  DONATE to Dave Min.  Persuade serious candidates to stay out of the race.

Other California Races

 Proposition 50 has had an effect on many California Members of Congress who were seen as vulnerable.

Among Democrats,

  1. Adam Gray, California 13. His race was the closest Democratic win in the nation as he flipped a Republican seat, Now the district is rated a Toss-up by Cook, Tilt D by Inside Elections, Lean D by Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Adam Gray is getting prepared for the campaign and had $1 Million Cash in Hand on September 30.  Help him be better prepared.  See Len’s Political Note #716.  The Republican candidate with the most resources, former mayor Kevin Lincoln, had $200,000 on September 30.
  2. Derek Tran, California 45. His race was the second closest Democratic win in the nation as he flipped a Republican seat.  Now the district is rated: Lean D by Cook and Sabato, Safe D by Inside Elections. Derek Tran is well prepared for the race ahead.  He had $2 Million Cash on Hand.    Keep him in the lead.  See Len’s Political Note #717.  Since the incumbent he defeated, Michelle Steel, has declined to run, the challenger with the most resources is Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen who had $250,000 on September 30.
  3. George Whitesides. California 27. His race with the seventh closest Democratic win in the nation as he flipped a Republican seat. Now the district is rated Likely D by Sabato, Safe D by Cook and Inside Elections. Well prepared for the campaign, he had $2 Million Cash on Hand. See Len’s Political Note #726.  His probable Republican opponent, City Councilor Jason Gibbs had $200,000 Cash on Hand
  4. Josh Harder, California 09. His race was the eighth closest Democratic win in the nation as he held his seat.  Now the district is rated Likely D by Sabato and Safe D by Cook and Inside Elections. Very well prepared for the campaign, he had $3.4 Million cash on hand.  He does not appear to be facing a serious opponent.  See Len’s Political Note #730 from before Prop 50.
  5. Jim Costa, California 21. His race was the tenth closest Democratic win in the nation as he held his seat. Now the district Is rated Lean D by Inside Elections, Likely D by Cook and Sabato  Preparing for the campaign, he had $500,000 cash in hand on September 30. DONATE to his campaign.  His potential opponent, Lorenzo Rios had $150,000.cash in hand.  A possible primary opponent  is union rep Lourin Hubbard whose financial information is not available.
  6. Dave Min, California 47. His race, today’s piece, was the fourteenth closest Democratic win in the nation as he held this seat.  Now the district is rated Likely D by Sabato, Cook, and Inside Elections. As noted above, he is prepared with a solid amount of cash on hand and the Republican opponents seem weak.  DONATE to discourage serious opponents.
  7. Mike Levin, California 49. His race was the twentieth closest Democratic win in the nation as he held his seat.  Now the district is rated Likely D by Sabato, Safe D by Inside Elections and Cook. He is prepared for the race with $1.2 Million cash on hand.  Post Proposition 50, his opponents do not look as formidable as they did before.  Republican Board of Supervisor Member Jim Desmond had $900,000.  Will he take that money and look for a more promising race?

Among Republicans

  1. Ken Calvert, California 41.His race was the eighth closest Republican win in the nation as he held his seat.  Now the district is rated Safe D by Sabato, Cook, and Inside Elections. At least six Democrats are running for this seat and Calvert is running for California 40.  Linda Sanchez, the incumbent of California 38, is the Democratic candidate for this seat.
  2. David Valadao, California 22.His race was the ninth closest Republican win in the nation as he held his seat.  For 2026, the district is rated Tilt R by Inside Elections, a Toss-Up by Cook and Sabato.  Valadao had $1.8 Million cash on hand on September 30.  Physician, Working Families Party Member, and School Board Trustee Randy Villegas leads Democratic candidates in the financial race to take on the perpetually vulnerable Valadao.  Randy Villegas can do that only if you and others DONATE to his campaign.

 

Other California Races to consider

  1. California 01. Held by Republican Doug LaMalfa, now onsidered Likely D by Sabato.  In preparation for the 2026 race, he had $850,000 cash on hand.  Democrats can win this seat.  I do not yet have a recommendation for who to donate to, however.
  2. California 03. Held by Republican Kevin Kiley, now considered Likely D by Sabato. If Kiley continues to run for his seat, he will probably face Ami Bera, the incumbent of California 06 who is switching to California 03.  You can DONATE to his campaign or wait to see how the race develops
  3. California 06. Held by Democrat Ami Bera, Inside Elections now considers this district Likely D. Cook and Sabato rate it Safe D. I do not see a Democratic front runner to recommend at this time.
  4. California 25. Held by Democrat Raul Ruiz. He has $2.3M COH and is considered to be Likely D by Inside Elections., Cook, and Sabato. He has four announced Republican opponents but there is no indication who might be his likely opponent. DONATE to Raul Ruiz.
  5. California 40 Held by Republican Young Kim. She has $4.8 M COH. The California 41 incumbent Ken Calvert is running here and it is considered Safe R.. He has $3M COH.  A Democratic win would be a major upset. Consolidation around a single Democrat could create a first or second place in the non-partisan primary and a chance for that upset in the general election. Art Galllery owner Esther Kim Varet had $1.3 million cash on hand on September 30 and looks like the likeliest possibility to put up a fight. DONATE to support an upset.

Flip California 01, 03, 22, 41, and more.  A bunch of districts are now more comfortably Democratic.  Nevertheless, there are more districts to write about – but not now.  I will wait until the races are clearer.

Do not forget California’s Governor race

 We are looking at a non-partisan primary on June 2, 2026. This. primary includes Democrats, Republicans, and others.  The top two candidates from the primary  will face off in the general election in November.

In an early November poll,

            First place:  Republican County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 13%

            Second place: Democratic former Congresswoman Katie Porter at 11%

            Tied for third place. Democratic former US HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra at 8%

            Tied for third place Republican former Fox Host Steve Hilton at 8%

  In a late October poll

            First place: Republican former Fox Host Steve Hilton at 16%

            Second place: Democratic former Congresswoman Katie Porter at 15%

            Third place: Republican County Sheriff Chad Bianco a 11%

There are many more candidates – all of them Democrats.  I suggest that you DONATE to Katie Porter’s campaign.  Ensure that there is one Democrat still running after June 2.  See Len’s Political Note #753