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November 17th 2025. Len’s Political Note #767 Rebecca Cooke Wisconsin 03
2026 General Election
Rebecca Cooke
Larry Sabato’s Center for Politics at the University of Virginia projects 210 Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican seats in the House of Representatives. They project 209 Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic seats. The rest are Toss ups.
Wisconsin 03 is among the Toss ups.
Cook’s Political Report does it slightly differently. It projects six Democratically held seats at Toss ups. And it projects ten Republican held seats as Toss ups. Cook’s Political Report identifies Republican held Leans and Likelys and Democratic held Leans and LIkelys.
Wisconsin 03 is among the ten Republican held sets identified as a Toss up.
Inside Elections does it their own way as well. It adds a category – Tilt Republican and Tilt Democratic. Inside Elections sees 12 toss up seats, 10 held by Republicans and 2 held by Democrats. In addition, IE identifies 7 Democratic held seats as Tilt Democratic, 6 Republican held seats as Tilt Republican, and 2 Democratic held seats at Tilt Republican.
Wisconsin 03 is among the 6 Republican seats identified as Tilt Republican.
The Wisconsin 03 incumbent is Derrick Van Orden. A winner by a little more than 11,000 votes, he is my 11th most vulnerable Republican. He was first elected to Congress in 2022 after trying and losing in 2020. He won what was an open Democratic seat in 2022 by a 52 – 48 margin, was reelected in 2024 by a 51-49 margin. Fifty Six years old, he joined the navy when he was 18. He trained as a Navy SEAL, retired as a Senior Chief after five combat deployments. In retirement, he and his wife ran a care and he acted in some movies.
In the House, he earned (perhaps confirmed) his reputation as a blundering blowhard by cursing at pages who were doing what pages do toward the end of their tenure. They were lying on the Capitol floor photographing the inside of the Dome. In colorful language, he told them to stop lying around and to get up off the floor.
Now 38 years old, Rebecca Cooke was the candidate who lost to Derrick Van Orden by two points in 2024. Although there is an opponent for the Democratic nomination, she is the front runner. She had one million dollars available for the campaign on September 30. Her primary opponent is City Council President Emily Berge. She entered the race in April, 2025, raised $275 thousand, and reported $75 thousand on September 30. Put this in perspective. Incumbent Derrick Van Orden reported have $1.7 million cash on hand as of September 30. There are no polls available to judge, but the money race confirms Rebecca Cooke’s status as the leading Democratic candidate.
If elected, Rebecca Cooke would not be the first former waitress in Congress. Nor the last. Nor the most famous. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has the most famous category wrapped up. Rebecca Cooke is no Alexandria Ocasio Cortez
Rebecca Cooke knows rural Wisconsin. She was born and raised on a dairy farm in Eau Claire. Her family has deep roots in state. In the 19th century, Chauncy Cooke was an abolitionist who joined the union army at the age of 16. In the 20th century, she had family members who were in the service in World War I and World War II. Her grandfather was a marine in Korea; her father was a medic at Walter Reed Hospital.
Her dad had married the daughter of a dairy farmer and later took over the farm. Neither Rebecca Cooke nor her brother will continue that farm. Her brother came home from the Navy and is now a firefighter. Rebecca Cooke is a political figure, but not only that.
In high school, Rebecca Cooke demonstrated her interests in both business and the non-profit world. Even though she was captain of the soccer team, she began a little business packing and selling jellies and she created a non-profit called Relief for the Red Arrows that provided financial support for those returning from the Iraq War.
After graduating from the University of St. Thomas, a private Catholic college in St. Paul, Minnesota, Rebecca Cooke returned home particularly moved by a social justice program she had been involved in. The program, brought college students to work alongside people who had various jobs, helping the students appreciate the demands and the dignity of work. Rebecca Cooke had some personal understanding of the demands and dignity of work from her experience as a waitress.
In 2015, Rebecca Cooke opened her business, Red’s Mercantile. The business sold locally-made products when possible and always American made clothing and home goods. She closed the business in 2022 after coming in second in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin 03. In 2016, she had created The Red Letter Grant, an organization built through fund raising which focused on directing the funds to assist women entrepreneurs. Recognizing Rebecca Cooke’s efforts, Governor Tony Evers appointed her to the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation.
She ran again in 2024 and won the Democratic primary for WI 03. Before the election she gained the support of the Blue Dog Coalition. If elected in 2026 she would join the following Blue Dog Coalition members about whom I have written — Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar of Texas, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Adam Gray of California.
Help Rebecca Cooke get there. DONATE to her campaign.
Other Wisconsin races
State Supreme Court – Election is in April
For an open Republican seat on this 4-3 Democratic Court: DONATE now to Appeals Court Judge Chris Taylor. See Len’s Political Note #731 Defeat hard right Appeals Court judge Maria Lazar. If Chris Taylor wins the State Supreme Court would have a 5-2 Democratic majority.
November elections
Attorney General Incumbent Josh Kaul passed up the crowded race for Governor. He has a Yale BA and Stanford JD. As AG, he has charged Trump operatives for efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Because these are state charges, Trump’s pardon does not apply. DONATE. Help him defeat Republican County District Attorney Eric Toney.
Wisconsin’s Neighbors
Illinois
While there is a Senate race, I do not have a recommendation here yet. And there is no need to make recommendations for the Governor race or down ballot races. Unless Illinois attempts to redistrict and reduce Republican seats in the state to 2, it is unlikely that any incumbent House member will be seriously challenged.
Iowa
Governor: DONATE to State Auditor Rob Sands whose Republican opponent will probably be Congressman Randy Feenstra. See Len’s Political Note #746.
Down Ballot: Former Navy Pilot Ryan Peterman has enough of a chance to be Secretary of State. DONATE
And Sate Rep Nate Willem could defeat inc Brenna Bird for Attorney General DONATE.
US Senator: Three Democrats are lined up to run against front running Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson. We will need to pick a favorite soon or Hinson will have so much money it will be no contest. For now though Progress Iowa promises to hold money to Flip Iowa’s US Senate Seat. DONATE to them.
Iowa 02. Law Professor and former Democratic State Rep Christine Bohannan might be a slight favorite over the incumbent Republican Marionette Miller-Meeks. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #737.
Iowa 03 We have to choose soon between State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott and State House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst or incumbent Republican Zach Nunn will have time to recover from his embarrassing quest for another office to run for.
Minnesota
Governor Tim Walz, the former Vice Presidential candidate, seems vulnerable enough so that a half dozen Republicans are running. Help him win. DONATE.
Attorney General Keith Ellison has been the highest ranking and best known Muslim in office. That Virginia has elected a Muslim Lt. Governor and New York City has elected a Muslim Mayor will not insulate Keith Ellison from another close race. DONATE.
US Senator Democrats have two candidates for this open Democratic seat. Republicans have three. The Democratic candidates seem stronger, but as soon as a front runner is clear, donate to Congresswoman Angie Craig or Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan.
Minnesota 02. Three Democrats and two Republicans want to replace Angie Craig who is running for the Senate. I do not have a recommendation now.
Michigan
Governor Former Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the front running Democrat. DONATE. Her her defeat the Republican nominee who will probably be Congressman John James. See Len’s Political Note #747
Supreme Court
Chief Justice Megan Cavanagh was appointed in 2025 and is, therefore, scheduled for election in 2026. Daughter of a former Chief Justice, she had been serving as an Associate Justice. DONATE
Associate Justice Noah Hood was appointed in 2025 and is, therefore, scheduled for election in 2026. His dad is a minister; his mom is a federal judge. DONATE
No Republicans have yet announced a candidacy. If both Justices are elected, the Michigan Supreme Court would have a 6-1 Democratic Governor appointed majority
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US Senate Business-oriented Congresswoman Haley Stevens is enough of a front runner here to support. DONATE. She needs to defeat former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. See Len’s Political Note #763
Michigan 07 To defeat first term Republican Congressman Tom Barrett, support former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink DONATE See Len’s Political Note #742
Michigan 08 Incumbent Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet was an easier victor than expected in 2024. DONATE this time to defeat Navy Vet Amir Hassan or whoever else the Republicans nominate.
Michigan 10 For this open Republican seat, there are five or more Democratic candidates, three or more Republicans. We need to wait a bit.
