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November 25th 2025. Len’s Political Note #769 Nellie Pou New Jersey 09
2026 General Election
Nellie Pou is no lap dog.
Pronounce her name like the poet – Poe. She is not Nellie Poo. She is a diligent and way more than competent politician who Paterson New Jersey and its congressional district NJ 09 have been fortunate to have.
Because she was a Paterson bureaucrat for so much of her life, I wondered if people describe her as a plodder. They do not. She has gone from job to job because she is so distinctively capable.
She was born in 1956 and Nellie Pou’s dad worked for the City of Paterson – blue collar work. Her mom stayed home. They had moved to New Jersey from Puerto Rico in 1953, Nellie Pou went to local public schools. She has taken college courses, but appears not to have earned a degree. More proof that she is not a plodder. Plodders get their BAs. Nellie Pou got an honorary doctorate from William Paterson College in 2024 celebrating her contributions to her home city and to New Jersey.
Nellie Pou began working for the City of Paterson at age 19, serving as a CETA training and education coordinator. The Comprehensive Employment and Training Act was intended to employ and train young people in skills that were sufficient to have them work at their entry level public jobs. A teenager, she had responsibility well beyond entry level.
After her eight CETA years, she became coordinator of the Passaic County Youth Program and then, at thirty years old, Paterson’s Director of human services. Later, she became the City’s Assistant Business Administrator and then its business administrator.
Meanwhile, she became involved in electoral politics. In 1997, while she was assistant business manager, Paterson’s Assemblyman Bill Pascrell was elected to Congress. The local Democratic Party arranged for Nellie Pou to replace Pascrell in the Assembly. Quickly, she became a powerful figure – Assistant Minority Leader in 2000, Deputy Speaker in 2002, Appropriations Committee Chair in 2006. With an open seat available, she switched to the State Senate in 2011.and was elected easily and reelected even more easily.
The Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers spends several paragraphs listing and describing statutes focused on social justice and human rights for which Nellie Pou was largely or partly responsible. Here is a link: https://cawp.rutgers.edu/speaker/nellie-pou
Congressman Bill Pascrell died on August 21, 2024. That was an election year and he had been running for reelection. If the Democrats were going to have a candidate in November, the combined county committees had to choose someone quickly. They held a special convention on Thursday, August 29. The Governor and the Pascrell family supported Nellie Pou and the other three aspirants dropped out.
In 2024, the Hispanic shift to the right was a big factor in the election of Donald Trump. He carried 40% Hispanic New Jersey 09. The Democrats had selected their first Hispanic nominee for New Jersey 09 Nellie Pou won the election, but by less than 5 points. She became one of a half dozen Members of Congress of Puerto Rican heritage.
Nellie Pou’s probable opponent in 2026 is suburban Clifton City Councilor Rosemary Pino whose heritage is Ecuadorian, who grew up in the Bronx, prospered, and became a Republican. PIno criticizes Nellie Pou: “She refuses to work with President Trump, voted for the largest tax increase in American history, voted against border security, and has left our community without an effective voice in Congress.” On September 30, Pino had $80,000 available for her 2026 campaign. As competent as ever, Nellie Pou had $1.2 million.
Help Nellie Pou stay in Congress. She will make a difference for us all. DONATE.
Other New Jersey races
New Jersey 02. Republican Congressman (and former Democrat) Jeff Van Drew was elected by a nearly 8 point margin in 2024. Six months ago, a poll found only 41% of his constituents had a favorable opinion of him. He is preparing himself for a contest and reported $1.1 million available on September 30. Of the four Democrats who have announced, only former USAID official Bayly Winder had funds identified by the FEC. He reported $200,000. DONATE to Bayly Winder’s campaign to support someone who is demonstrating the ability to compete.
New Jersey 07. Republican Congressman Thomas Kean Jr seems less safe. At least ten Democrats have announced their candidacy. A winner by a 5% margin in 2024, Kean Jr. reported $2 million available for 2026 on September 30. The two leaders among Democrats in the financial race are former military helicopter pilot and business start up consultant Rebecca Bennett with $900,000 and politically restless businessman Brian Varela with $800,000. Varela has gone from Chris Christie to Andrew Yang to the Democrats in search of a political home. I will wait a little longer before I make a recommendation. Perhaps former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth, with $300,000 cash on hand, will catch on.
Neighboring States: Benjamin Franklin described New Jersey as a “keg tapped at two ends.” New York to the north, Pennsylvania to the south.
New York contests
Kathy Hochul
Although US Senator Kristin Gillibrand does not have serious opposition, Governor Kathy Hochul does. Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, who recently announced her candidacy for election as governor, became prominent when she replaced Liz Cheney in the Republican House Leadership. She became better known when Donald Trump promised to appoint her as ambassador to the UN and then reneged. Former Congresswoman and former Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul had been elevated to the position of Governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned from that position. From Western New York, she has, for the most part successfully, steered a course somewhere between the conservatism of Upstate and the reverse of New York City. Her former Lt. Governor is a primary opponent. Appealing as a Member of Congress, his timing is terrible. DONATE to Kathy Hochul’s campaign.
Attorney General Letitia James She has no announced opponent, but she has one. His name is Donald J Trump. He has pressed his Justice Department to bring criminal charges against her. A tough competitor, she may not only beat the rap. She just may make the rapper (the prosecutor) and the rap (the so-called crimes) disappear. DONATE Keep her viable.
New York 03. Incumbent Tom Suozzi won his election in 2024 by a margin of about 12,500 votes – close enough for 2026 to be considered a serious contest when and if a Republican announces. Keep Tom Suozzi in a position to intimidate potential Republicans even though the FEC does not have information about his fund raising for the 2026 contest. DONATE. Help him. See Len’s Political Note #760
New York 04. Incumbent Laura Gillen flipped a Republican seat in 2024 winning by more than 8,500 votes. Her only Republican opponent so far is Businessman Martin Smithmyer and he reports that he has raised no funds yet. Laura Gillen is prepared. She ended the third quarter of this campaign with $1.5 million cash on hand – perhaps enough to discourage donations to Smithmyer and to discourage other candidates. See Len’s Political Note #729
New York 10. Wealthy first term incumbent Dan Goldman has at least three primary opponents who argue that the district needs a more progressive voice. This will be interesting to watch.
Alex Bores
New York 12. I do not ordinarily endorse for primaries, but I will in this case, partly because it is the district in which I live. Incumbent Jerry Nadler, a progressive Democrat, has announced his retirement at the end of his term. Eight candidates to replace him have already announced including a Kennedy scion and Nadler’s endorsee. My choice is Alex Bores, trained as a computer data scientist, he is well positioned to help the Congress deal with the demands of the high tech corporations. He belongs both to the Vote Blue Coalition which supports progressive legislation and legislators in the region. And he belongs to the national Future Caucus which encourages innovative, bipartisan solutions to problems. He knows how to cultivate his supporters (He called to wish me a happy birthday as I was writing this piece}. He is gathering endorsements from local Democratic clubs, unions, and others who are active in the district. DONATE. He will be a great Congressman.
New York 17. Republican Incumbent Mike Lawler is besieged. He has a castle there — $2.8 million cash on hand on September 30. He also has seven Democrats who want his job. Even the three leading Democrats have a lot to do to catch him — County legislator Beth Davidson at $650,000, Tech company CEO Peter Chatzky at almost $900.000 and former National Security official Cait Conley at $950,000 – all have a decent chance to get the nomination.
New York 19. Attorney and now Incumbent Josh Riley flipped a Republican seat in 2024, winning by about 8.000 votes. He will probably be facing a State Senator in 2026 Peter Oberacker. The FEC is unclear about Oberacker’s financial status. Josh Riley is prepared. He had $1.8 million cash on hand on September 30. His resources can help discourage Republicans from donating to the Republican candidate and discourage other Republicans from entering the contest. Keep the pressure on. DONATE to Josh Riley. See Len’s Political Note #717.
New York 21 Dairy Farmer Blake Gendebien is the probable nominee, though he does have a primary opponent. This is the seat that Elise Stefanik announced she would abandon for a run for governor. Blake Gendebien was poised to be the Democratic nominee for an election that never happened in this heavily Republican district. Donald Trump reneged on his promise to appoint Stefanik as UN Ambassador and there was no need for a special election. Meanwhile Blake Gendebien had raised a substantial amount of money and had $2 million cash in hand on September 30. Just as the Republicans could not agree on a candidate during the summer, no Republicans have yet announced for 2026. Blake Gendebien could be elected to represent this heavily Republican district. DONATE See Len’s Political Note #706
New York’s best possible outcome: In addition to protecting the offices elected state wide, Democrats protect all Democratic Congressional incumbents and flip New York 17 and New York 21. If a law suit were to succeed in changing NY 11, that could create a third vulnerable Republican seat. Flipping two or three Republican seats is not as many flipped seats as Texas is hoping for through its redistricting, but two or three seats would be a big deal.
Pennsylvania contests
The only state-wide race is for Governor. Josh Shapiro is unlikely to be challenged successfully by the only Republican candidate – State Treasurer Stacy Garrity. Pennsylvania has already supported retention of three Democratic State Supreme Court Justices overwhelmingly.
Pennsylvania 01 In this district where the number of registrants would make it a toss up, County Commissioner Bob Harvie may be well enough known and liked enough so that he can make a run at incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick. But it is not an easy task, Fitzpatrick won by nearly 60,000 votes in 2024. Fitzpatrick will not be outspent. He reported $6.9 million cash on hand September 30. For that date, Bab Harvie reported more than $200,000. You could DONATE to Bob Harvie’s campaign.
Pennsylvania 07. Republican State Rep Ryan Mackenzie (who, for a time, had served in the state legislature with his mother) defeated three term Congresswoman Susan Wild by about 4,000 votes in 2024. Five Democrats want to replace him. Mackenzie’s tenure has been marked by a scandal on Tinder and statements that made him sound like a Democrat regardless of how he actually voted. He reported $1.4 million cash on hand on September 30. The Democrat who reported the most money, $400,000 by former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, is neither reporting a big war chest nor is far of the others to warrant my recommendation now. I will wait and watch and suggest you do the same. County Executive Lamont McClure and Firefighter Union leader Bob Brooks are also promising candidates.
Pennsylvania 08. Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti is the almost certain Democratic nominee. She reported $450,000 cash on hand on September 30. Incumbent Republican Rob Bresnahan, who turned a family electrical business into a real estate firm has had his year or so in office marked by considerable stock trading after campaigning to end stock trading by Members of Congress. Bresnahan reported $1 million cash on hand on September 30. Help Paige Cognetti win this election. DONATE.
Pennsylvania 10. Janelle Stelson, a former Republican and former television news anchor, lost to incumbent Republican Scott Perry in 2024 by a little more than 5,000 votes. In an election year when Donald Trump is unpopular and less trusted than he used to be, Perry, as a moving figure in Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election, should be increasingly vulnerable. Scott Perry enters the race well-armed. He reported $1.4 million cash on hand on September 30. Janelle Stelson reported $1 million dollars. Her primary opponent, Justin Douglas, is a county commissioner, not a nobody. But he reported $50,000 cash on hand. DONATE to Janelle Stelson’s campaign. Flip this seat.
Pennsylvania 17. Democratic incumbent Chris Deluzio campaigns as if he is in trouble. However, no Republican has announced. No Republican has been suggested as a possibility. Chris Deluzio reported $700,000 cash on hand. If he develops an opponent. If the district appears to revert to its former swing district character, that would be the time to donate.
Pennsylvania’s best possible outcome: Hold PA 17 and other Democratic. Flip three out of the four Republican held district described above. Pennsylvania 01 is probably out of reach, though it is not wrong to try to help Bob Harvie. As with New York, flipping three Republican seats is not flipping five seats as Texas planned through redistricting. Pennsylvania flipping three seats would be a lot.
A net of two flipped seats in New York, three in Pennsylvania, and two in New Jersey would be a Blue Wave all by itself.
A REPUBLICAN HOUSE SEAT, NOT PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO NEW JERSEY, THAT COULD BE FLIPPED IN 2025. DONATE AT THE LAST MINUTE FOR THIS DECEMBER 2 ELECTION. The Republicans appear to be worried enough to be pouring money in at the last minute.
Aftyn Behn
Tennessee 07. The Republican incumbent has resigned. The primary has been held. Democratic State Rep Altyn Behn is the Democratic nominee. State cabinet member Mark Van Epps is the Republican nominee. Tennessee Republicans had “cracked” the Nashville seat that elected Democrats and gave Tennessee 07 enough Democrats so there is a possibility of a Democratic win, but not a likelihood. Aftyn Behn took on the Tennessee legislature pressing them to move discipline of legislators and legislative staff to the Attorney General’s office. Mark Van Epps exercised some control over elected and appointed officials as the official responsible for must state purchasing. The election is scheduled for December 2. DONATE to support Aftyn Behn. See Len’s Political Note #758
