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October 8th , 2025 Len’s Political Note #757 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Washington 03
2026 General Election
US Representative Marie G. Perez
How do you make a moderate or centrist or even conservative Democrat?
We have met a couple. Henry Cuellar, who was born to Texas farmworkers has been a relentless student. He may be the only Member of Congress with both a law degree and a PhD. He is still at it, having this year completed a Master’s Degree from the Naval War College. He is a religious Roman Catholic, respectful of authority, and traditional on almost all cultural issues, though he has supported same sex marriage. See Len’s Political Note #756* DONATE
Jared Golden’s family owned a golf course. He grew up preferring the groundskeepers to the golfers, preferring joining the army to attending the local state college. Returning home with PTSD, he was rescued from the pizza joint where he was working by his Bates College faculty and admission office customers. Admitted to Bates, he educated himself and educated the other students about the virtues of the military and the complexity of American intervention. Along the way, he had support from Senator Susan Collins, though he followed his Kennedy loving father to the Democrats. See Len’s Political Note #719. DONATE
Like Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez represents a district that leans fairly heavily Republican. To the extent that being a Member of Congress is a gift, Marie G. Perez’s position is a gift from the State of Washington’s election system and of Joe Kent. Like California, Washington state uses a non-partisan, top two election system. In 2022, Washington 03 was represented by moderate Republican Jaime Herrera Bueller.
An improbable winner, given a 2% chance of being elected by the website 538, Marie G. Perez won 31% of the vote to lead in the mlti-party primary. Joe Kent, an ex-military far right candidate who Marie G Perez could later attack for being a dangerous white nationalist who supported violence, came in second – edging out the incumbent congresswoman 22.8 to 22.3, a touch more than 1,000 votes. Marie G. Perez defeated Kent in the general election 50.1 to 49.3, by less than 3,000 votes. She defeated Kent again in 2024, this time by more than 15,000 votes, still not a big win in a Congressional race.
Born and raised in Houston, Texas, daughter of a preacher in a Spanish language Christian church, that 2% likelihood of Marie G Perez representing Washington 03 might seem a little high. Her mother was from Washington. She was the descendent of loggers, carpenters, and quarrymen. She met her husband in college, Western Washington University in Bellingham – one of those many universities in the United States that had once been a normal school for training teachers. After they graduated, the couple left for Texas.
Summers, Marie G. Perez was sent to her second home, to Washington where her grandparents were. She hung around her grandfather’s carpentry shop, working when and at what he allowed her to work at.
During the school year, while her dad preached, her mother was home, home schooling her four children. Marie G. Perez was taught at home through seventh grade. Homeschooling is not necessarily isolating. Where there are home schoolers, there is a home school community. In Texas and elsewhere, that community is wary together about the impact of those in authority. I know that personally. As a school superintendent in Massachusetts, one part of my job was to approve the education plans for homeschoolers in my school district.
Marie G Perez might have developed her stubborn independence while at home or attending a public secondary school. She demonstrated those qualities in her choice of college. Initially, she attended Warren Wilson College in Asheville, North Carolina, a school that grew out of the Asheville Farm School. A member of the work study consortium, the college’s students were required to participate in public service and to have a campus job.
Marie G. Perez discovered and transferred to an even more extraordinary school — Reed College in Portland, Oregon, not far from the Oregon-Washington border. Reed had been founded in 1908 to be different from the schools of the East Coast. It would have no fraternities, no social clubs, and no varsity sports. It was coeducational, nonsectarian, egalitarian, and intellectual. During the 1930s, the college president experienced resistance that bordered on rebellion when he attempted to get students to reduce their use of alcohol (the student council apparently took the position that prohibition did not apply to them) and to prevent students from visiting dormitories of students of the opposite sex.
If asked about her recollections of her college life, Marie G. Perez might explain she worked three jobs while attending Reed in order to pay her school expenses. After she had told her parents she was not attending church, her parents told her they would not pay any college expenses, not tuition or room and board. She might recall that, while working, she met Dean Gluesenkamp. He was in and around the college working with any number of students and faculty who relied on bicycles. He was a bicycle mechanic.
If she were asked what she taught her fellow students, she might recall bringing her mechanic boyfriend to college events and teaching the students in what had become a school for the elite the civility and values called for in an egalitarian world. Or she might recall teaching a physics major how to hold a wrench and how to use it to repair his bicycle. Dean Gluesnkamp’s bicycle repair business apparently had an element of teaching self-reliance.
When I asked, Artificial Intelligence told me Dean Gluesenkamp and Marie Perez married in 2012, which was when she graduated college. It also told me 2016. It is generally reported that after she graduated college, Marie G Perez went into business with her husband, creating the automobile repair shop he runs today.
The closest I could find to a scandal regarding Marie G Perez is a Republican claim that she did not really share in owning the business until 2015. What’s more they claim, she was not really a mechanic. She mostly did (though they don’t say it that way) “feminine” things like the bookkeeping. Republicans did not have much electoral success investigating who owned what part of the business or who did what underneath the cars they repaired.
Despite her political interest, Marie G Perez did not initially have much electoral success. She lost a race for County Commissioner in 2016 and she lost a race for public utility district commissioner in 2018. Democrats were glad to have her, though. She supported Bernie Sanders in 2020 and was elected to the state party executive committee in that year.
Elected to Congress in 2022, Marie G Perez carved out her centrist politics. She opposed an assault weapons ban, but accepted raising the purchasing age to 21. Having supported expulsions at the southern border and a remain in Mexico policy for amnesty applications, she was one of a handful of Democrats to vote to condemn the Biden administration’s border policies. She was one of fewer than a handful of Democrats to support the Republican voter ID requiring SAVE Act – a regrettable vote, I think, unless the ID requirement was accompanied by a massive effort to ensure that everyone eligible can easily obtain citizenship identification.
Marie G Perez’s imaginative centrist positions included, appropriately for a garage repair shop owner, the Right to Repair and the Smart Act to require auto companies to provide the information necessary for small garages to repair the newest cars. Her vote against Joe Biden’s student debt relief proposal was an opportunity to highlight her view that post-secondary technical and other career education is as important and more practical than college education and should be eligible for federal support. Her joint proposal with Jared Golden was intriguing. They would allow states to consider multi-member congressional districts and proportional representation for members of congress while also mandating the creation of independent electoral commissions in every state for redistricting.
Marie G. Perez was left of center on cultural issues such as abortion and same sex marriage. She was and remains a supporter of Israel and reminds people that Israel is the only country in the middle east that recognizes rights for women and does not put members of the LGBTQ community at risk.
She will have a Republican opponent who is not the reckless Joe Kent. Right now only one has announced – State Senate Minority Leader John Braun. The Clark County newspaper reports that polls indicate Braun would win a majority in a run off election. The same is true, to a lesser degree, for two other Republican politicians considering a run. Braun is a non-MAGA politician. He earned Trump’s wrath for recruiting and supporting non-MAGA politicians. Democratic leaders, on the other hand, describe Braun as a shill for Big Pharma and other corporate interests.
John Braun might not make it through to the run off. Others will have different strengths and liabilities. In a two person run off, Marie G. Perez might focus on her success in obtaining funding for the I-5 bridge. She could express concern that President Trump’s tariffs have not solved the gradual decline in the timber industry. She might point out, as industry experts explain, the timber industry needs stability. In some ways, the timber industry plans 40 years ahead. A steady supply of lumber, not huge new supplies and funds for research are what the industry needs – the exact opposite of what Trump calls for.
DONATE to Marie G. Perez. She is an imaginative and effective and exciting Member of Congress.
Other West Coast races to donate to.
Non California races. In addition to Marie G. Perez’s Washington 03 race, an Oregon race warrants attention.
Oregon 05 Janelle Bynum, before she and her husband moved to Oregon to take over his mother’s fast food chain restaurants, Janelle Bynum was an engineer for General Motors. Her involvement in school politics on behalf of her children led her to the state legislature. The state of the country led her to Congress. A member of the Financial Services Committee, she would make it easier for those with no financial history to improve their credit scores. She has demonstrated a focus on rural business development. She was elected by a 2.7% majority and can use all the support she can get for 2026. DONATE
California is uncertain.
Proposition 50, submitted to the people by Governor Gavin Newsom and passed by the legislature by two-thirds majorities, is intended to be California’s response to Texas’s attempt to redistrict to flip five Democratic seats. Support Proposition 50. A national mandate to require non-partisan redistricting in every state would be better. Without such a mandate, Governor Newsom’s willingness to respond to the Texas action is both admirable and essential. Help Proposition 50 pass so California can flip 5 Republican seats. DONATE NOW. The referendum is on November 4, 2025. Democrats need a win here.
Below are California districts which the Center fo Politics at the University of Virginia described as “key” districts. The first group has Democratic incumbents. They are in order, with the least Democratic districts after redistricting first. The competitiveness is based on the University of Virginia’s calculation of what the margin would have been for the top of the Democratic ticket in 2022 and 2024 if the newly created Congressional districts were in effect.
California 13 Incumbent Adam Gray was elected in 2024 by 187 votes. Proposition 50 redistricting would make substantial changes in his district, but create a new one which would be a Toss Up. With resources and effort, Adam Gray could win in 2026. He is a man who preferred politics to his family’s dairy supply business. He worked as a staff member in the Assembly before being elected to the Assembly. In the Assembly and in Congress, he saw himself as a bipartisan problem solve who brought resources to his home district. One likely opponent is Republican Javier Lopez, Mayor of the small city of Ceres. The child of farm workers and now the owner of a small business, he is a kind of DOGE advocate. Help Adam Gray remain in Congress. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #716.
California 45 Incumbent Derek Tran. A winner by .2% in 2024, Proposition 50 redistricting would make this a Tilt Democratic district. The child of Vietnamese refugees, Derek Tran is a local attorney who specialized in consumer issues and opposes the depredations of large corporations. We do not know who his opponent will be in 2026, but early money now is a big deal. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #717
California 21 Incumbent Jim Costa is 73 years old, not quite old enough to be targeted by David Hogg’s Leaders We Deserve youth movement. He was first elected to Congress in 2004. The child of Portuguese immigrants, he attended a local parochial school which moved him toward college. Supportive of immigrants, women’s rights, and high speed rail, his conservatism emerged with his caution about the Affordable Care Act and caution about government involvement in regulating agriculture. He won reelection by 5% in 2024. Prop 50 revised his district but the revision keeps his district as Lean Democrat. Help him. DONATE to his campaign.
California 25 Incumbent Raul Ruiz won reelection in 2024 by 12.6 points. Proposition 50 projects him to be a less comfortable winner – Lean Democratic. Raul Ruiz life has been marked by changes of fortune and his own hard work. Adopted by his aunt in California, the wife of a farm laborer, when his mother died shortly after he was born in Mexico, he was an academic success. After getting a BA from UCLA, he went east to Harvard where he earned an MD, and MPP (Policy), and an MPH (Health). Back in California practicing medicine, he ran for Congress in 2012 defeating Mary Bono (Sonny’s widow) in a district that was surprisingly and rapidly becoming heavily Hispanic. He has a record as a progressive Democrat. Two Republicans have emerged as opponents. Help him adjust to a more competitive district. DONATE.
California 49. Incumbent Mike Levin was initially elected to Congress in the 2018 Democratic wave. The child of a Jewish father and a Mexican American Catholic mother, he graduated from Loyola High School in Los Angeles. As an attorney, he specialized in environmental law, founding a trade group for those involved in green energy. He supports women’s right to reproductive health, LGBTQ rights, gun safety including an assault weapons ban, but is primarily focused on addressing climate change. He was elected by a margin of more than 4% in 2024. With the Proposition 50 changes, the district would move from Tilt to Lean Democratic. DONATE. Keep him ahead of the game early. DONATE
CA 47 Dave Min is the child of Korean immigrants, academics who were getting doctorates at Brown when he was born. He is Katie Porter’s replacement – a progressive expert on banking law. He was an SEC attorney, the banking counsel for Chuck Schumer, and became a law professor at the University of California, Irvine as Katie Porter was leaving that same school. He served a stint in the State Senate and was elected to the House to fill the seat that Katie Porter left to run for the US Senate. One opponent has surfaced so far, a business consultant. Dave Min was elected by a margin of less than 3% in 2024, but, Proposition 50 could shift the district from Tilt to Lean Democratic. DONATE. Keep him ahead of the game early.
California 27. Incumbent George Whitesides, the former chief of staff to the head of NASA and former CEO of Virgin Galactica, is a business oriented scientist, son of an internationally known chemist father and distinguished Egyptologist mother. A co-founder of a wildfire prevention organization, he returned to help deal with the California wildfires. In Congress, he has supported space exploration, energy alternatives, and conservation. He was elected by a 2.9% margin, flipping a Republican seat. With Proposition 50, the district moves from Tilt to Lean Democratic. DONATE. Keep him ahead of the game early.
California 09 Incumbent Josh Harder may be the Democratic incumbent for whom Proposition 50 makes the most difference. Winner by a vulnerable 3.6% in 2024, the impact of Proposition 50, if it is successful, would shift the district from Tilt to Likely Democratic.. Josh Harder flipped a Republican seat in 2018. A local, he descends from early California peach farmers. In high school, he interned for the Congressman, then a state senator, who he defeated. A graduate of Stanford, Harvard Business School, and Harvard’s Kennedy School, he abandoned a lucrative career for politics. As a Congressman, he protected local interests and defied the governor by getting Congress to vote to prohibit the construction of a tunnel to carry water past the local agricultural area. DONATE. Keep him ahead of the game.
Passage of Proposition 50 would leave California incumbent Members of Congress about where they were in terms of vulnerability or, in most cases, less vulnerable. If Democrats can hold these incumbencies, can they flip Republican seats. I do not have donation recommendations for Democratic challengers. We may have to wait until the June multi-party primary to know which Democrat to support. We may have to some clues early through fund raising and polls. For know, though, I will tell you what I can.
California 22 Incumbent David Valadao won in 2024 with a margin of 6.8 percent. If Proposition 50 passed he would leave this district as a Toss Up.. He is the son of Portuguese immigrants who created a dairy farm that got in trouble on two counts when David Valadao was an adult partner. The farm went bankrupt and it was found to have cheated employees by not paying minimum wage. In Congress, he has insisted that California’s drought has nothing to do with global warming, has voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and supported the Republican tax cuts. He has, however, voted for Donald Trump’s impeachment, opposed Trump’s most drastic acts against immigrants such as separating children from parents, and opposed limitations on Medicaid. Two Democrats have announced. More will announce after Proposition 50 passes, and the DCCC may have to select a favorite to avoid having the top two candidates be Republicans.
California 48 Incumbent Darrell Issa was elected in 2024 with a margin of 18.6 points. If Proposition 50 passes, he would be in a Toss Up district. Issa is among the wealthiest members of the House of Representatives. He grew up in Cleveland, the son of a Lebanese Maronite Catholic father and a Mormon mother of Central European descent. He dropped out of high school and joined the army where he was trained to defuse bombs. He made a small fortune turning a friend’s electronics business into selling car alarms. He made a larger fortune in California real estate. Elected to the House of Representatives in 2000, An ethics complaint charged that he his position as Oversight Committee chair on his own behalf – not a shocking allegation against a man who, in his younger days, was indicted twice and suspected of burning down his first shop for the insurance. Several Democrats have expressed interest in running. More will announce after Proposition 50 passes, and the DCCC may have to select a favorite to avoid having the top two candidates be Republicans. Issa may choose to run in a more Republican district.
California 03. Incumbent Kevin Kiley was elected in 2024 with a margin of 11 points. If Proposition 50 passes, he would find himself in a Lean Democratic district. He acknowledged the reality of climate change, but has opposed remedies. He opposed implementing vaccination requirements and refused to acknowledge Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. Two Democrats have announced. More will announce after Proposition 50 passes, and the DCCC may have to select a favorite to avoid having the top two candidates be Republicans.
California 01. Incumbent Doug LaMalfa was elected in 2024 with a margin of 30.6 points. If Proposition 50 passes, he would be in a Lean Democratic district. He has opposed affirmative action, same sex marriage, and gun safety measures. California 01 could be flipped to be a Democratic seat. Two Democrats have announced. More will announce after Proposition 50 passes, and the DCCC may have to select a favorite to avoid having the top two candidates be Republicans.
California 41. Incumbent Ken Calvert was elected in 1982 and at 72 years old is a little young to be a focus on the movement to elect younger people. His margin of victory in 2024 was 3.4%. His district would have become Likely Democratic.. Ken Calvert is almost always a proponent of tax cuts. He has been particularly opposed to members of the LGBTQ community. And it would not be a surprise if he decided to run in another district. Democrats already have six people who have announced. The DCCC may have to select a favorite to avoid having the top two candidates be Republicans.
What do we make of the effect of Proposition 50 in comparison with Texas? It would not be a surprise if the two south Texas districts 28 and 34 remain Democratic, leaving Texas with making that effort with 3 new Republican seats. What’s more, Democrats with a strong candidate in TX 15 could flip a Republican seat leaving Texas with a net 2 for Republicans. A pro-Democratic optimistic outlook would be a net of 3 Democratic seats flipped Republican.
And California? Proposition 50 leaves us with 8 incumbents of “key” districts:
1 Democratic incumbent in a Toss up district (CA 13)
1 Democratic incumbent in a Tilt Democratic district. (CA 45)
5 Democratic incumbents as Lean D (CA 21, CA 25, CA 27, CA 47, and CA 49)
1 Democratic incumbent as Likely Democratic (CA 09)
And Republican incumbents who could be flipped
2 Republican incumbent in Toss Up districts (CA 22 and CA 48)
2 Republican incumbents in Lean Democratic districts (CA 01 and CA 03)
1 Republican incumbent in a Likely Democratic district (CA 41)
1 more Republican incumbent not reported above in a Safe R district (CA 40)
If Texas has a net gain of 3 Republicans, California might match that wih a net a 3 Republican seats flipped. .
*A reader pointed out that I referred to Henry Cuellar as Henry Cisneros a few times in Len’s Political Note #757. I apologize for the error.
New competitive seats
Rep
CA 01 LaMalfa. Dem +38.4. – actual 30.6. = Dem +7.8. 2 Dems
CA 03 Kiley. Dem +14.8 Actual 11 = Dem +3.8. 2 Dems
CA 22 Valadao Dem +4.3. Actual 6.8 = Dem -2.5. 2 Dems
CA 38 Dem County Suprevisor Hilda Solis is running here
CA 40 Kim. Dem +9.3. Actual 10.6 = Dem -1.3. Will the new CA 40 include both Kim and Calvert?
CA 41 Calvert. Dem +19.9. Actual 3.4 = Dem +16.5. Inc CA 38 is running here
CA 48 Issa. Dem +20.1 Actual 18.6 = Dem +1.5
Dem Better
CA 09 Harder
CA 13 Gray
CA 27 Whitesides
CA 45 Tran
CA 47 Min
