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February 20th , 2025 Len’s Political Note #708 Vulnerable Republican Members of the House
2026 General Election
November 3, 2026 seems a long way off. Every political Democrat is looking forward to that day. The 2024 election left Democrats closer to control of the House of Representatives than they were before, but, sadly, not in charge. Technically, not counting House members who were resigning, the result was Republicans 220, Democrats 215. Flip a net of three seats and Democrats have control of the House. Democrats have control of the House agenda. Democrats can create a context that makes a Presidential win in 2028 more possible.
As you may notice, for most of the races, I included information about how much the candidates spent in the 2024 races – raised on their own or spent on their behalf by trackable committees. Except they may no longer be trackable. I am revising and rewriting on February 16 work that was done during the prior week. I get the financial information from what is posted by the FEC and from Open Secrets which provides some totals the FEC does not provide. Poof! The information is gone. Even the Open Secrets information is harder to find. I will check again before February 20th. There may be a simple explanation, but the likeliest simply information is that the information has been removed from public view as part of the Great Trump removal policy.
Because Len’s Notes are usually written to encourage readers to donate to candidates, I usually provide a link to the donation page for candidates. More than a year and a half before the 2026 election, we do not know who the Democratic candidates will be for these seats. Where there is an page that will accept donations, I have included a link.
Republicans who flipped Democratic Seats
OPPOSE FIRST TERM INCUMBENT GABE EVANS
CO 08 First term Democratic Congresswoman, pediatrician, and daughter of undocumented immigrants Yadira Caraveo (if Trump’s effort to abolish birthright citizenship had been successful, would she be a citizen?) was defeated by former national guard captain and former police lieutenant Gabe Evans. The margin was 2,449 votes despite Yadira Caraveo raising $8 million to Evans’s $2.7 million.
Yadira Caraveo has not said whether or not she would run again in 2026. Democratic State Rep Manny Rutinel has already announced his candidacy for 2026. You can DONATE to his campaign, wait to see who else is running, or both. Other potential Democratic candidates in addition to Caraveo include State Rep Shannon Bird, State Senator Davina Michaelson, County Commissioner Judy Duran Mulica, County Commissioner Steve D’Orisio, and State Treasurer David Young.
OPPOSE FIRST TERM INCUMBENT RYAN MACKENZIE
PA 07 Incumbent Democratic Congresswoman and attorney Susan Wild, known for high ethical standards, lost to Ryan Mackenzie, a state rep who succeeded his mother in the Assembly and has a BA from NYU and an MBA from Harvard. The margin was 4,215 votes.
The loss was despite Susan Wild raising nearly $9 million for the campaign compared to Mackenzie’s nearly $2 million. Negative outside spending was more even: $10.9 million against Susan Wild; $10 million against Mackenzie. Susan Wild has not indicated whether she would run in 2026. No other Democrats have announced for 2026 or have been mentioned.
OPPOSE TO FIRST TERM INCUMBENT ROBERT BRESNAHAN
PA 08 Incumbent Democratic Congressman and attorney Matt Cartwright lost to Robert Bresnahan, the CEO of his grandfather’s electrical firm, partner in a Chicago based construction firm, and owner of a real estate development by 6,266 votes.
Matt Cartwright could run to regain his seat. He raised $8.5 million for the 2024 campaign versus Bresnahan’s $3.7 million. Negative outside spending was more even: $8.6 million against Cartwright; $9.8 million against Bresnahan. If you wanted to donate to Matt Cartwright, an effective and experienced legislator, it appears you can do so at his old Act Blue account. DONATE.
OPPOSE FIRST TERM INCUMBENT NICK BEGICH III
AK AL First term incumbent and communal Native American leader Mary Peltola lost to businessman and a Republican member of a prominent Democratic family Nick Begich III by 7,876 votes. She is considering whether or not to run again for this seat. In 2024, she raised $13.8 million to Begich’s $2.7 million. Negative outside spending was more even: $10.4 million against Peltola, $9.9 million against Begich.
OPPOSE FIRST TERM INCUMBENT TOM BARRETT
Republican Tom Barrett
MI 07 Former State Senator Curtis Hertel lost to former State Senator Tom Barrett by 16,763 votes. Hertel has not indicated whether or not he would run again. State Senator Sarah Anthony is described as a possible Democratic candidate. She will have to raise money if she is the candidate. Republican Tom Barrett spent $5.1 million on the campaign; trackable outside spending by conservative organizations amounted to an additional $14.7 million. Democrat Curtis Hertel spent $7.7 million. Trackable outside spending by liberal organizations amounted to an additional $12.7 million.
Republicans who held their seats, but by narrow margins. It an off year the incumbent President’s party usually loses seats. Donald Trump is certainly giving Democratic candidates all over the country encouragement to believe they can win in 2026.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Marionette Miller-Meeks
IA 01 Law professor and former state Rep Christina Bohannan lost to incumbent Marionette Miller-Meeks by 799 votes. That is a very narrow margin and Bohannan may be back for a third try. No other Democrat has expressed interest in running. Christian activist David Pautsch has announced he would run in the Republican. Primary.
In 2024, Bohannan spent $6.8 million to Miller-Meeks’ $5.4 million. In trackable outside spending, $4.8 million was spent against Miller-Meeks, $6.7 million was spent against Bohannan. In addition, $2.2 million was spent to support Miller-Meeks while $650,000 was spent to support Bohannan.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Scott Perry
PA 10 Former television anchor Janelle Stelson lost to Inc Scott Perry. By 5,140 votes. If Janelle Stelson does not try again, someone should, though no one has expressed interest to date. Perry was one of the most active Congressmen in encouraging Donald Trump to. persist in overthrowing the results of the 2020 election.
In 2024, Stelson spent $6.4 million to Perry’s $4.6 million. Trackable outside spending against Stelson came to $6.4 million while $5.6 million was spent against Perry.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Don Bacon
NE 02 Sate Senator Tony Vargas lost to incumbent Don Bacon by 5,829 votes. As a State Senator, Vargas was a kind of representative for all Nebraska’s Hispanic immigrants, people who are particularly vulnerable in a meatpacking state where their work is needed. Bacon has been a leader of the moderate Republicans in the House. Trump lost this district in 2024. If there is a marginalized group among Republicans, Bacon’s moderate group is it. In my fantasies, I imagine Bacon leading a group lured across the aisle by Hakeem Jeffries. If Bacon continues supporting Trump, Vargas should try again or some other Democrat should because a win this close demonstrates vulnerability. Independent Labor Leader Dan Osborn who ran a tough race for Senate has said he is considering a race for this seat, governor, or the US Senate. Statewide Democratic leaders are urging him to the statewide races, saying they expect to have a strong Democratic opponent for Bacon.
In 2024, Vargas spent $7.4 million while Bacon spent $6.1 million. Trackable outsiders spent $9.5 million opposing Vargas, while other trackable outsiders spent $7.2 million opposing Bacon.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Ken Calvert
CA 41 Former prosecutor Will Rollins lost for the second time to 71 year old and long term Congressman Ken Calvert; this time by 8,123. The Republican Cody Wiebelhaus, head of a health care consulting group, appears to be exploring a possible primary challenge. Will Rollins, who has been a gay activist living in a city that welcomes members of the LGBTQ community, could try for a third time in 2026. Ferguson Porter, also a gay man from Palm Springs, who is involved in the comics industry has expressed interest in running.
In 2024, Rollins spent $12.5 million on his campaign while Calvert spent $7.8 million. Trackable outsiders spent $10.8 million opposing Rollins while other trackable outsiders spent $7 million opposing Rollins.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent David Valadao
CA 22 Former Bakersfield City Councilor and former assemblyman Rudy Salas lost for the second time to incumbent David Valadao, this time by 9,880 votes. Will Rudy Salas try for a third time? This central California district seems like a place where a Democrat could win and no one has expressed interest in 2026 so far.
In the 2024 race, Salas spent $6.2 million, Valadao spent $4.9 million. Trackable outsiders spent $9.5 million opposing Salas, other trackable outsiders spent $6.8 million opposing Valadao.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Juan Ciscomani
AZ 06 Law professor and national level expert in environmental law, former state rep and former state senator Kirsten Engel lost, for the second time, to Incumbent Juan Ciscomani by 10,732. Would she try for a third time? Perhaps not. I just received a reimbursement for my most recent donation to her campaign. She is not saving up for another run. The next day, I received a note telling me that Retired Marine drill instructor Joanna Mendoza had announced her candidacy. I can’t say whether other Democrats will enter the race.
In the 2024 race, Engel spent $8.3 million; Ciscomani spent $6.7 million. Trackable outsiders spent $8.2 million attacking Ciscomani; other trackable outsiders spent $7.9 million attacking Engel. If you want, you can DONATE now to Joanna Mendoza.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Derrick Van Orden
WI 03 Business owner and non-profit head, Rebecca Cooke lost to Trump-like figure Derrick Van Orden by 11,256 votes. She could run again in 2026. 2024 candidate and state-wide agriculture expert Brad Pfaff is a potential Democratic candidate as is former state rep and community organizer Katrina Shankland. No one, however, has officially announced a candidacy.
In 2024, Rebecca Cooke spent $6.3 million in her campaign; incumbent Derric Van Orden spent $7.1 million. Trackable outsiders spent $6.5 million opposing Van Orden while other trackable outsiders, either underestimating her or unable to find ways to attack her, spent $3.1 million opposing Cooke.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Jen Kiggans
VA 02 Former naval officer and community leader Missy C. Smasel lost to incumbent Jen Kiggans by 15,702 votes. Would Smasel, having learned from her unsuccessful campaign, try again? No one has been mentioned as a candidate and no one has, as yet, expressed interest.
In the 2024 campaign, incumbent Jen Kiggans spent $6.4 million to Missy Smasel’s $3.2 million. Trackable outsider spending opposing Kiggans was $4 million while trackable outsider spending opposing Smasel was $3.2 million. There was a disparity in trackable outside spending in support of the candidates — $1.4 million for Kiggans, $700,000 for Smasel.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Zach Nunn
IA 03 Former federal agriculture official and child of southeast Asian immigrants Lanon Baccam lost to first term incumbent Zach Nunn by 15,784 votes. Early in 2025, there is no indication of who a Democratic opponent might be.
In the 2024 race, Incumbent Zach Nunn spent $5.8 million to Lanon Baccam’s $5.5 million. Trackable outside spending opposing Nunn came to $5.7 million compared to trackable outside spending against Baccam in the amount of $6 million. There was a disparity in trackable outside spending in support of the candidates — $3 million for Nunn, $1 million for Baccam
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent David Schweikert
AZ 01 Medical doctor Amish Shah lost to perpetually vulnerable incumbent David Schweikert by 16,572. Shah had spent considerable campaign money and energy in winning a crowded Democratic primary. The crowd may be starting to gather again. Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio appears to be interested in running in the next Democratic primary. Former candidate Marlene Galan-Woods is considering another run. Amish Shah may run as well.
Three Republicans were elected in districts that Kamala Harris carried. Don Bacon from NE 02 is described above. These are the other two.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Mike Lawler
NY 18 Former Congressman Mondaire Jones lost to incumbent Mike Lawler by 23,946 votes. In 2022, Lawler had defeated Sean Patrick Maloney, then the head of the DCCC and representative of a neighboring district. Jones, who was first elected in 2020, stepped aside for Maloney. Lawler is unlikely to run for reelection; he seems particularly interested in running for governor of New York. Democrat Jessica Reinmann, a non-profit executive and anti-poverty activist has expressed interest. Another possible Democratic candidate is school board member Liz Whitmer Gereghty, sister of the Michigan governor. Gereghty had expressed interest in running in 2024.
OPPOSE re-electing incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick
PA 01 Veteran Ashley Ehasz was soundly defeated for a second time by incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick. The margin was 59,348 votes. Fitzpatrick, a former FBI officer, succeeded his brother to this office and has been consistently successful in a district that votes for Democrats for President and Senator and for local offices. No one is emerging as a candidate for 2026.
November, 2026 is well into the future. We have elections that are imminent. Spring Elections are Coming up. Now would be a good time to donate money.
The Impact of Special Congressional Elections. April 1
Some time before April 1, Republicans will have a 217-215 majority. Does that mean that a victory in all three elections would create a 218-217 Democratic majority?. Accurate, but unlikely. All three districts have voted 2-1 Republican. Keeping the Republicans below 60% would be a kind of triumph and encourage Democrats in their planning for 2026 Congressional elections. Donate to reduce the Republican margin and to take the chance that Democrats could win one or two or even three of these races. Don’t forget Mike Zimmer’s recent victory in Iowa’s 35th State Senate District, a district that had voted 2-1 Republican in past elections including the 2024 presidential election. On January 28, this contractor and former educator defeated a Republican activist and flipped the State Senate seat by a 52-48 margin. The Downballot blog, reporting on two state senate special election victories in Delaware noted those results made it six out of seven times that Democrats in 2025 did better in a special election than the Democratic candidate for president did in 2024. On average, Democrats are doing 9 points better than Kamala Harris.
Democrats appear to be on track to a special election year resembling 2017/2018 when they did an average of 11 points better than Hillary Clinton did, heralding a blue wave. If these special elections are a sign for the future, Democrats can be hopeful and Republicans should be afraid. While a 9 point swing would not be enough to win Florida 01 or Florida 06 or New York 21, donate to these races anyhow. Some candidates do better than average. Some raise the average. Keeping the Republicans under 60% in these districts is a kind of triumph. Help these Democrats out.
Florida 01: Gay Valimont is the Democratic nominee. Gay Valimont is the former head of the Florida Chapter of Mom’s Demand Action, a gun safety organization. She has returned to politics after two family tragedies. She understands how Republican her district is. She is both courageous and energetic enough to give it her all in a very tough cause. Her opponent is the former CFO for the state of Florida. He proposed using Florida tax money to defend Donald Trump in his criminal trials. That proposal was too extreme even for the Florida legislature. DONATE to Gay Valimont. See Len’s Political Note #694.
Florida 06: Josh Weil is the Democratic nominee. He is a teacher of middle school boys who have not been able to remain in typical classrooms, a job that may be tougher than seeking election as a Democrat in FL 06. Originally exercised by the 2020 Democratic losses in Florida, he describes his commitment to his own children and his students as energizing his campaign. His opponent is Randy Fine, wealthy from the gaming industry, an opponent of rights for members of the LGBTQ community, an opponent of abortion. Fine is convinced that God saved Donald Trump so he could be president. DONATE TO Josh Weil. See Len’s Political Note #704.
New York Special Election
New York 21. Blake Gendelbien will be the Democratic nominee. There was opposition, but no primary. Somehow he persuaded all 15 of the Democratic Party Chair who state law give the authority to select the candidate to support h I’m. He is a dairy farmer, not a politician. But he knows enough about politics to be successful. We have no idea who the Republican nominee will be. It appears that the Republican Party chairs don’t know much more than we do about who their nominee will be. Furthermore, none of us know when the special election will be. We won’t know until the Congresswoman, who has been nominated to be Trump’s Ambassador to the UN, is confirmed by the Senate and resigns from Congress. Help Blake Gendelbien maintain his head start. DONATE to his campaign.
Wisconsin – General Election April 1
State Supreme Court
Support Democratic County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford against former Attorney General Brad Schimel. Currently Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has a 4-3 Democratic majority. Susan Crawford is running to replace a Democratic justice who is retiring. A Republican win would give the court a 4-3 Republican majority. This race is crucial for preserving the right to abortion in Wisconsin, for preserving an un-gerrymandered state legislature and eliminating voter suppression. This will be a very expensive election. Republicans are geared up. DONATE to Susan Crawford. See Len’s Political Note #684
State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Support Democratic incumbent Jill Underly in the primary and in the general election. Jill underly serves as a bulwark against right wing culture war positions. DONATE. Keep a successful Democrat in a leadership role in Wisconsin. See Len’s Political Note #693.
