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February 16th , 2025 Len’s Political Note #707 Vulnerable Democratic Members of the House
2026 General Election
November 3, 2026 seems a long way off. Every political Democrat is looking forward to that day. The 2024 election left Democrats closer to control of the House of Representatives than they were before, but not close enough. Not counting House members who were resigning, the result was Republicans 220, Democrats 215. Flip a net of three seats and Democrats have control of the House. Democrats have control of the House agenda. Democrats can create a context that makes a Presidential win in 2028 more possible.
First, though, Democrats have to protect members of the House who are most vulnerable. Let’s Begin with the Democrats who flipped Republican seats in 2024. To put the margin of victories in perspective, remember that the average size of a congressional district is 761,169.
California 13 Adam Gray was elected to represent this central California district south of Stockton and west of Fresno. Almost right out of college, he became a staffer in the state assembly. Subsequently, he was elected to the assembly and, in 2022 ran for Congress against and lost to incumbent Republican John Duarte, a corporate type large pistachio farmer by 564 votes. He tried again in 2024, and won, by 187 votes. It would not be a surprise if John Duarte came back looking for the best two out of three matches. On December 31, 2024, John Duarte had $215,000 available for his campaign for reelection. He had raised more than $6 million for the 2024 campaign DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO ADAM GRAY, IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
California 45 Derek Tran was elected to represent this southern California district that almost surrounds, but does not include Anaheim. The son of Vietnamese immigrants, he joined the army after high school, got his BA and JD, and created a local practice focusing on consumer issues. He defeated Republican and Korean American Michelle Steel, whose husband was a former national head of the Republican Party. Derek Tran’s margin of victory was 998 votes. Steel might be back for another try. On December 31, 2024, Derek Tran had $325,000 available for his campaign for reelection. He had raised more than $6 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO DEREK TRAN. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
California 27 George Whitesides was elected to represent this district north of Los Angeles County. The son of an internationally known Harvard chemist, George Whiteside has been a leading figure in space exploration and is the former CEO of Virgin Galactica. He defeated Republican incumbent Mike Garcia by 7,606 votes. Garcia might be back to try to reclaim his seat. On December 31, 2024, George Whitesides had $325,000 available for his campaign for reelection. He had raised more than $10 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO GEORGE WHITESIDES. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
New York 19 Josh Riley’s 19th congressional district includes the eastern end of New York State’s Southern Tier of counties, the Finger Lakes, and counties south of Albany. A political Democratic attorney, he is a favorite of Al Franken. Riley was Franken’s attorney early in his Senate career. In 2024, Riley defeated incumbent and former County Executive Marc Molinaro by 7.997 votes. This is another race where we can expect a rematch. On December 31, 2024, Josh Riley had $70,000 available for his reelection campaign. He had raised almost $10 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO JOSH RILEY. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
New York 04. Laura Gillen was elected to represent this Long Island district. An attorney whose prior life included Broadway and volunteering with Mother Teresa, she served a term as Supervisor for Hempstead, the largest town in the country. She defeated incumbent Republican and former New York police detective Anthony D’Esposito by 8,613 votes. He may be back to try to reclaim his seat. Laura Gillen had $25,000 available for her reelection campaign. She had raised almost $7 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO LAURA GILLEN. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE. On December 31, 2024,
Oregon 05 Janelle Bynum was elected to represent the northeastern Oregon district that is both east and west of the Cascades. An electrical engineer for General Motors, she reconsidered her career after being stuck in Taiwan during 9/11. She and her husband took over his mom’s fast food franchise chain. Being civically active led her to run successfully for the state House of Representatives. She defeated the one term incumbent Lori Chavez DeRemer who Donald Trump has nominated to be Secretary of Labor. Bynum’s margin of victory was 9,649 votes. On December 31, 2024, Janelle Bynum had less than $50,000 available for her reelection campaign. She had raised nearly $7.5 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO JANELLE BYNUM. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
Second. Follow up with seats that Democrats held in a year that was not easy for either Democrats or Republicans.
Ohio 09 Marcy Kaptur is the longest serving woman in the history of the House of Representatives. Her mother was a union organizer. Marcy Kaptur was a product of the Catholic left. Now she is a Congressional moderate. She defeated a candidate chosen by Republican leaders as someone who could defeat her. Her margin of victory over Derrick Merrin was 2,382 votes. Merrin may be back for another try, by which time Mary Kaptur will be 80. She insists she is running again. On December 31, 2024, March Kaptur had $450,000 available for her reelection campaign. She had raised $5 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO MARCY KAPTUR. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
Maine 02 Jared Golden wins the prize among Democratic Congressmen for having the most Republican district. He is a veteran of Iran and Afghanistan whose recovery from PTSD was a product of his experience at Bates College and includes a stint working for Republican Senator Susan Collins. He defeated former racing car driver Austin Theriault by 2,706 votes. Every one of Jared Golden’s victories has been close. On December 31, Jared Golden had $125,000 for available for his reelection campaign. He had raised almost $8 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO JARED GOLDEN. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
Texas 34 Vicente Gonzales is a high school drop-out, business-oriented Democrat who became an attorney and represents a district along the Gulf Coast running north from Brownsville on the Mexican border to Corpus Christi. He defeated Mayra Flores by 5,177 votes. She represented this district briefly after winning a special election that the then DCCC chair did not contest. Flores may be back for another try. On December 31, 2024, Vicente Gonzales had nearly $300,000 available for his reelection campaign. He had raised $2.5 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO VICENTE GONZALES. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
North Carolina 01 Don Davis is a former Air Force officer who returned to teach and study at Greenville-based East Carolina University and serve as mayor of his tiny home town. He defeated businesswoman Laurie Buckhout by a 6,304 margin, in her first try at elective office. She may be back again. On December 31, 2024 Don Davis had $270,000 available for his reelection campaign. He had spent just under $6 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO DON DAVIS. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
California 09 Josh Harder was elected in the Democratic wave of 2018 to represent what is now a Central California, Stockton-based district. A venture capitalist with degrees from Stanford, Harvard’s Business School and Harvard’s Kennedy School, he faced his toughest race since 2018, defeating Republican Kevin Lincoln, an African-Hispanic American Pastor and Mayor of Stockton, by 7,973 votes. Lincoln will probably be back for another try. On December 31, 2024, Josh Harder had $1.7 million available for his reelection campaign. He had raised more than $5 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO JOSH HARDER. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
California 21 Jim Costa was an Assemblyman and State Senator for 24 years before being elected to Congress in 2004. His Central California district includes Fresno in the north and then angles to the southeast. He defeated Michael Maher who had served in the navy and in the FBI by 8,333 votes in a low turnout district. On December 31, 2024, Jim Costa had $200,000 available for his campaign for reelection. He had raised less than $2 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO JIM COSTA, IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
Ohio 13 Emilia Sykes had plans to get away from Ohio, but was drawn back home by her parents, each of whom had been elected to the Ohio legislature. Emilia Sykes followed their lead, was elected to a Dayton-based district each parent had been elected to, and became a leader of Democrats and African Americans in the Ohio House of Representatives. She defeated state senator Kevin Coughlin by 8,542 votes. Coughlin had been touted for state-wide office and was selected by party leadersas someone who could defeat Sykes. He may be back in 2026. On December 31, 2024, Emilia Sykes had $125,000 available for her reelection campaign. She had raised more than $5 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO EMILIA SYKES. IT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
California 47 Dave Min was elected to the seat held by Katie Porter, who had come in third in the open primary for US Senator. Min was a state Senator, had graduated from Penn and Harvard Law School, and had worked in Washington Agencies and think tanks. He came west to teach at University of California, Irvine, the school where Porter taught and courses similar to those Porter had taught. First seveing as a State Senator, he defeated regional Republican party chief Scott Baugh, by 10,167 votes. That is close enough so Baugh might well run again. On December 31, 2024, Dave Min had $175,000 for his campaign for reelection. He had raised well over $6 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO DAVE MIN.
Nevada 03 Susie Lee represents a district that includes part of Las Vegas and slopes south into the desert along the California border almost to the state’s southernmost point. She grew up in Canton, Ohio, has a BA and MS from Carnegie Mellon, and got a job working on water issues in the northeast. She was hired to oversee similar work in Las Vegas, married the owner of a casino, became a local philanthropist and then a candidate for Congress. Chosen by Harry Reid to run for NV 03 after she had previously lost a primary to Jacky Rosen, she was elected in 2018. In 2024, she was reelected by 10,220 votes, defeating Drew Johnson, a Libertarian oriented writer who opposes taxes and government spending. Johnson also opposes Trump, who he once called a socialist. In nearly every election Susie Lee is seen as vulnerable. On December 31, 2024, Susie Lee had nearly $500,000 available for her reelection campaign. She had raised just under $6 million in the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO SUSIE LEE.
New Mexico 02 Gabe Vasquez represents a district which runs along New Mexico’s entire southern border, a bit of the state’s eastern border, and more than half of the state’s western border to a point due east of Albuquerque and includes just a bit of that city. Vasquez graduated from New Mexico State, became a kind of blue color environmentalist, and was elected to the Las Cruces city council. He defeated two term incumbent Yvette Herrell by 11,032 votes in this district which has swung from one party to the other. Yvette Herrell may be back for the best of two out of three. On December 31, 2024, Gabe Vasquez had $40,000 available for his reelection campaign. He had raised just under $7 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO GABE VASQUEZ.
New York 03 Tom Suozzi, who had left Congress to run unsuccessfully for Governor, is a moderate to conservative Democrat in this Long Island district. He returned to defeat the Republican candidate his party wanted to replace George Santos after he resigned from Congress. In 2024, he defeated local attorney Mike LiPetri by 12,529 votes. On December 31, 2024 Tom Suozzi had $2 million available for his reelection campaign. He had raised $9.5 million for the 2024 campaign. DONATE EARLY AND OFTEN TO TOM SUOZZI.
Texas 28 Henry Cuellar, perhaps the only anti-abortion Democrat in the House, has moderated his position. An attorney and former State Rep, he was elected in 2004 and won comfortably until 2024, though he had tough primary races in 2020 and 2022. He had no primary opponent in 2024 and defeated former Naval Commander Jay Furman by 13,373 votes. Cuellar is particularly vulnerable because he was indicted for accepting money from Azerbaijan, which shares oil interests with this district along the southwestern border of Texas and extends inland to the edges of San Antonio. Don’t quit on him. On December 31, Henry Cuellar had $50,000 available for his reelection campaign. He had spent $2.5 million in the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY TO HENRY CUELLAR.
California 49 Mike Levin, Stanford BA, Duke JD, and clean energy advocate, represents a coastal district extending south from Irvine, but not as far south as San Diego. He was first elected to this relatively Republican district in 2018. He is considered vulnerable in every election and defeated auto dealer Matt Gunderson by 14,199 votes in 2024. On December 31, 2024, Mike Levin had $275,000 available for his reelection campaign. He had raised $5.5 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY TO MIKE LEVIN
Washington 03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez graduated from Reed and stayed in the area to open an automobile repair garage with her husband. She grew up in Texas where her father was an evangelical pastor. Her mother’s roots were in Washington which led her to Reed. A blue collar Bernie Sanders supporter educated at a small college known for radicals, as a candidate for Congress in this southwest corner of Washington. she was a distinctive mixture of conservative and radical Democrat. She defeated Joe Kemp, a right-wing extremist for Congress in 2022, defeated him again in 2024 by 16,124 votes. On December 31, 2024, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had $25,000 available for her reelection campaign. She had raised more than $11.5 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY TO MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ.
Plus One: A Democrats not listed above who won in a district that Trump carried in 2024
Michigan 08 Kristen McDonald Rivet is the mother of six children. Prior to entering politics, she was chief of staff for the State School Superintendent. Before running for MI 08, a district that includes Flint in its south and continues north to the south and south-west edge of Lake Michigan, she was a state senator. She defeated Paul Junge, a former Trump staffer, by 28,151 in this district that Trump carried. On December 31, 2024, Kristen McDonald Rivet had less than $20,000 available for her reelection campaign. She had raised $6 million for the 2024 race. DONATE EARLY TO KRISTEN MCDONALD RIVET.
Most of these Democrats are more conservative than the majority of urban or suburban Democrats. They are Democrats in swing districts and are the kind of candidate and the kind of people who appeal to their districts. In a way, these are the candidates on behalf of whom this newsletter is written. For Democrats to gain a majority in the House of Representatives, they must win in these districts. One of the reasons Nancy Pelosi was such a strong Speaker, is that she understood the importance of supporting Henry Cuellar, for instance.
I ask you to support these candidates now. I will be writing longer pieces about these incumbents as we approach November, 2026. If Democrats are to have a majority in Congress, they will need to reelect all or almost all of these candidates in 2026. I will ask you to support these candidates again when I write longer pieces about them. Until then, support them now and keep on supporting them. 2026 will be no ordinary mid-term election just as Donald Trump’s administration is proving to be no ordinary Republican presidency.
November, 2026 is well into the future. We have elections that are imminent. Spring Elections are Coming up. Now would be a good time to donate money.
Florida Special Congressional Elections. April 1
Some time before April 1, Republicans will have a 217-215 majority. Does that mean that a victory in all three elections would create a 218-217 Democratic majority?. Accurate, but unlikely. All three districts have voted 2-1 Republican. Keeping the Republicans below 60% would be a kind of triumph and encourage Democrats in their planning for 2026 Congressional elections. Donate to reduce the Republican margin and to take the chance that Democrats could win one or two or even three of these races. Don’t forget Mike Zimmer’s recent victory in Iowa’s 35th State Senate District, a district that had voted 2-1 Republican in past elections including the 2024 presidential election. On January 28, this contractor and former educator defeated a Republican activist and flipped the State Senate seat by a 52-48 margin. If that is a sign for the future, Democrats can be hopeful and Republicans should be afraid.
Florida 01: Gay Valimont is the Democratic nominee. Gay Valimont is the former head of the Florida Chapter of Mom’s Demand Action, a gun safety organization. She has returned to politics after two family tragedies. She understands how Republican her district is. She is both courageous and energetic enough to give it her all in a very tough cause. Her opponent is the former CFO for the state of Florida. He proposed using Florida tax money to defend Donald Trump in his criminal trials. That proposal was too extreme even for the Florida legislature. DONATE to Gay Valimont. See Len’s Political Note #694.
Florida 06: Josh Weil is the Democratic nominee. He is a teacher of middle school boys who have not been able to remain in typical classrooms, a job that may be tougher than seeking election as a Democrat in FL 06. Originally exercised by the 2020 Democratic losses in Florida, he describes his commitment to his own children and his students as energizing his campaign. His opponent is Randy Fine, wealthy from the gaming industry, an opponent of rights for members of the LGBTQ community, an opponent of abortion. Fine is convinced that God saved Donald Trump so he could be president. DONATE TO Josh Weil. See Len’s Political Note #704.
New York Special Election
New York 21. Blake Gendebien will be the Democratic nominee. There was opposition, but no primary. Somehow he persuaded all 15 of the Democratic Party Chair who state law give the authority to select the candidate to support h I’m. He is a dairy farmer, not a politician. But he knows enough about politics to be successful. We have no idea who the Republican nominee will be. It appears that the Republican Party chairs don’t know much more than we do about who their nominee will be. Furthermore, none of us know when the special election will be. We won’t know until the Congresswoman, who has been nominated to be Trump’s Ambassador to the UN, is confirmed by the Senate and resigns from Congress. Help Blake Gendebien maintain his head start. DONATE to his campaign. See Len’s Political Note #706
Wisconsin – General Election April 1
State Supreme Court
Support Democratic County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford against former Attorney General Brad Schimel. Currently Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has a 4-3 Democratic majority. Susan Crawford is running to replace a Democratic justice who is retiring. A Republican win would give the court a 4-3 Republican majority. This race is crucial for preserving the right to abortion in Wisconsin, for preserving an un-gerrymandered state legislature and eliminating voter suppression. This will be a very expensive election. Republicans are geared up. DONATE to Susan Crawford. See Len’s Political Note #684
State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Support Democratic incumbent Jill Underly in the primary and in the general election. Jill underly serves as a bulwark against right wing culture war positions. DONATE. Keep a successful Democrat in a leadership role in Wisconsin. See Len’s Political Note #693.