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February 12th, 2025 Len’s Political Note #706 Blake Gendebien New York 21
2025 Special Election
Now we know that the Democratic nominee for the New York 21 special election is Blake Gendebien. We don’t know when the election will be. There are two important variables. The Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik, who has been nominated by the President to be the US Ambassador to the United Nations, has not yet resigned from Congress. There is no vacancy until she resigns.
We don’t know what the law will be about filling vacancies. Currently, New York law requires that a vacancy be filled within 90 days of the existence of a vacancy. Even though there will be no primary, to meet the deadline, the Governor must announce the scheduled special election within 10 days of the existence of the vacancy.
When there is a vacancy in New York, the law provides for party nominees to be selected by the County Party Chair. In the case of New York 21, the area is so large and rural New York counties so small, that the chairs of 15 counties are involved. The Democratic chairs have agreed unanimously on Blake Gendebien. We have no idea what the Republican chairs will do or even if they agree on a candidate.
We do know that governors sometimes consider politics when scheduling special elections. The Republican governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis interrupted a trade mission to Italy in November, 2024 to ensure that the special elections for heavily Republican FL 01 and FL 06 would occur as quickly as possible. Both elections are scheduled for April 1. In contrast, when Democratic Congressman Alcee Hastings died in May 2021, DeSantis scheduled the special election to replace him in that heavily Democratic district for January, 2022
The New York State Senate Democratic Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins has suggested that a longer period of time that the now mandatory maximum of 90 days in New York for filling the NY 21 vacancy would ensure a larger turnout for the special election. Republican State Senator Joe Grillo says it is unfair to leave the people of New York 21 unrepresented for longer than necessary. And he suggested any claim that delay would bring cost saving is not reasonable. Republican Congressman Mike Lawler has taken the argument a step farther. He suggests any delay would be a crime and has called for a RICO (racketeering conspiracy) investigation by the US Department of Justice.
New York Democrats have discussed changing the law and scheduling the special election to coincide with the general election in November or the New York primary election in June. Either decision date would represent some modest savings by consolidating elections.
Delay will have an impact on the House of Representatives. As soon as Elise Stefanik resigns from Congress, the Republican majority will drop to 217-215. Two special elections are scheduled to fill vacancies on April 1 in Florida. With such a narrow majority, passing anything that is controversial in any way without Democratic support in the US House of Representatives is extremely difficult. In the unlikely event that Democrats won both Florida 01 and Florida 06, the House of Representatives would be tied 217-217. In that case, resolving the majority in the House of Representatives would rest with the people of New York 21.
Dairy Farmer Blake Gendebien will be the Democratic nominee. All 15 county party chairs have indicated they support him. He is not an experienced politician, but he seems pretty good at it. He achieved that unanimity despite being one of nine candidates seeking support. The Republicans will find unanimity harder to achieve. They have ten candidates.
Interviewed about his candidacy, Blake Gendebien said “I’m not a politician. I’m a farmer who cares about my neighbors. I don’t have pressure from Albany, I don’t have pressure from D.C….” He added: “I’m a farmer at heart,” the kind of person who, if he sees a car off the road, he hooks his chain up and pulls them out without asking about their politics.
Blake Gendebien explains he would approach being a Congressman in the same way. He wants to reduce the price of groceries and avoid creating additional tax burdens. In a place where the population is growing older, he wants senior care to remain available. He wants hospitals to thrive so North Country residents don’t have to travel miles to get specialty care. He wants to make sure the price of health care does not drive people into bankruptcy.
Initially, Blake Gendebien was not certain he would be a farmer. He graduated from Penn State with a degree in agricultural business and management and worked selling farm equipment in Georgia. When the farm next to his parents’ farm became available, he and his girl friend (now his wife) jumped at the opportunity. They have built Twin Mill Farms into a 550 cow dairy farm with 1200 acres on which they grow corn, soybeans, and alfalfa. He’ll tell you how many acres are devoted to each crop.
Blake Gendebien is not entirely inexperienced in electoral politics. He served three terms as a member of the local school board. He has been Member and now Vice Chair of the Agri-Mark Board of Directors since 2012 – a dairy cooperative of 600 farmers that owns the Cabot brand. He is also apolitical. He co-founded the Jules of Life Foundation to help families combat childhood cancer.
Like a lot of independent farmers, he has had businesses on the side. He owned and ran Twin Mill Lubricants for 12 years. He co-founded A Wholesome Glow bath and body products that come, as he would say, straight from the farm.
In 2013, Blake Gendebien demonstrated that he was not a politician. Interviewed by the local press about life as a farmer in Upstate New York, he discussed the workforce. He said the prison guards did not have a sense of “self-worth.” He compared local workers unfavorably to the Hispanic immigrant work force who, he said, worked harder and did not have baggage like domestic abuse or custody fights.
Now he dismisses the Republican focus on a 12 year old interview. He also explains that he brings a distinctive perspective on immigration and says “If you want an honest discussion and you want to set real immigration policy that works from California to Maine you need to have a farmer in the room.”
Blake Gendebien expects to be that farmer. Without regard to which Republican gets picked for the special election; without regard to the impact on Congress of a Democrat being elected from New York 21, without regard to Elise Stefanik’s success in a district that, before she was elected, did not belong to a single party, he expects to win this election. For a novice politician, he has done a good job raising money — $700,000. National Democrats will be behind him. You should be too. DONATE. Help Blake Gendebien change Congress by being there.
Spring Elections are Coming up. Now would be a good time to donate money.
Florida Special Congressional Elections. April 1
Some time before April 1, Republicans will have a 217-215 majority. Does that mean that a victory in all three elections would create a 218-217 Democratic majority?. Accurate, but unlikely. All three districts have voted 2-1 Republican. Keeping the Republicans below 60% would be a kind of triumph and encourage Democrats in their planning for 2026 Congressional elections. Donate to reduce the Republican margin and to take the chance that Democrats could win one or two or even three of these races. Don’t forget Mike Zimmer’s recent victory in Iowa’s 35th State Senate District, a district that had voted 2-1 Republican in past elections including the 2024 presidential election. On January 28, this contractor and former educator defeated a Republican activist and flipped the State Senate seat by a 52-48 margin. If that is a sign for the future, Democrats can be hopeful and Republicans should be afraid.
Florida 01: Gay Valimont is the Democratic nominee. Gay Valimont is the former head of the Florida Chapter of Mom’s Demand Action, a gun safety organization. She has returned to politics after two family tragedies. She understands how Republican her district is. She is both courageous and energetic enough to give it her all in a very tough cause. Her opponent is the former CFO for the state of Florida. He proposed using Florida tax money to defend Donald Trump in his criminal trials. That proposal was too extreme even for the Florida legislature. DONATE to Gay Valimont. See Len’s Political Note #694.
Florida 06: Josh Weil is the Democratic nominee. He is a teacher of middle school boys who have not been able to remain in typical classrooms, a job that may be tougher than seeking election as a Democrat in FL 06. Originally exercised by the 2020 Democratic losses in Florida, he describes his commitment to his own children and his students as energizing his campaign. His opponent is Randy Fine, wealthy from the gaming industry, an opponent of rights for members of the LGBTQ community, an opponent of abortion. Fine is convinced that God saved Donald Trump so he could be president. DONATE TO Josh Weil. See Len’s Political Note #704.
Wisconsin – General Election April 1
State Supreme Court
Support Democratic County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford against former Attorney General Brad Schimel. Currently Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has a 4-3 Democratic majority. Susan Crawford is running to replace a Democratic justice who is retiring. A Republican win would give the court a 4-3 Republican majority. This race is crucial for preserving the right to abortion in Wisconsin, for preserving an un-gerrymandered state legislature and eliminating voter suppression. This will be a very expensive election. Republicans are geared up. DONATE to Susan Crawford. See Len’s Political Note #684
State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Support Democratic incumbent Jill Underly in the primary and in the general election. Jill underly serves as a bulwark against right wing culture war positions. DONATE. Keep a successful Democrat in a leadership role in Wisconsin. See Len’s Political Note #693.
