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October 25th , 2024 Len’s Political Note #680 Consider Indiana and the Midwest
2024 General Election
As I work on my political notes, I develop some favorites. Not all of them get a Political Note. And of those, not all get into the end of year political summaries, But they are favorites and there is a place for them. Some of them show up in today’s note.
Indiana. Two candidates I want to point out to you:
Indiana Governor. Jennifer McCormick
The professional politicians have noticed. The PACs are beginning to spend money on this race. The pundits have noticed. They began to mention this race. I noticed. I wrote about Jennifer McCormick as a competitive Democratic candidate for Governor of Indiana on September 19th. In 2023.
Jennifer McCormick taught special education in an elementary school. They moved here to a middle school. Then back to an elementary school as principal. She became assistant superintendent and then district superintendent. All the while she was getting the necessary degrees and promotions to superintendent. When a woman moves up through the system the way Jennifer McCormick did it is almost always a sign of skill – teaching that parents love, running a school in a way that generates confidence, political skill that allows her to do her job.
The capstone was in 2016. The Republicans picked her as their candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction SPI). Disappointing to her, the Republican governor and legislature would not let her do her job. She was so annoying to them, they changed the system by which the SPI was selected, to go into effect in 2024.
That was fine with her. She changed her party registration to Democrat. She announced that she was running for Governor. No Democrats opposed her. The Republicans tried to ignore her.
The Republicans had plenty to handle all by themselves. Businessman Mike Braun had been elected US Senator in 2018. An opponent of the Affordable Care Act, same-sex marriage, abortion, and a pathway for citizenship for undocumented immigrants, he departed from orthodoxy by urging Republicans to take climate change seriously. He also had to explain away his early registration as a Democrat. Braun easily defeated the Lt. Governor for the Republican nomination. But he could not escape a property tax reduction proposal that demonstrated how little he understood state and local government. Nor could he could escape being saddled with Pastor Micah Beckwith and previous primary losing candidate for IN 05 as his running mate for Lt. Governor. Hardly anyone is Christian enough for Micah Beckwith.
Nor can Mike Braun escape the political impact of Libertarian candidate for Governor, Donald Rainwater. A military retiree, he proposes to eliminate the individual income tax and the property tax on a family’s primary residence. He wants a smaller and fairer government. He is getting 8% of the vote in polls. Mike Braun is getting 44% of the vote. Jennifer McCormick is getting 41%. That is why, in September, institutional Democrats and Republicans began spending money on this race. You should, too. DONATE. Let’s elect another Democratic governor; one who was willing to take a risk on behalf of good schools.
Indiana 05 Deborah Pickett
The incumbent, Victoria Spatz, offered the Democrats a gift.
The only Ukrainian born Member of Congress, Victoria had met Jason Spartz on the train between Kyiv and Moscow. Six years later, she was married to him and had a real estate broker license in Indiana. Shortly after that she was a CPA. Fourteen years later, in 2020, she was elected to represent IN 05 by a margin of 17,000 votes and again in 2022 by 53,000 votes.
The first part of the gift came on February, 2023 when she announced she would not run again for Congress. Eight Republicans signed up to run for the open seat. In February, 2024, Spartz gave the Democrats the second part of the gift. She announced she would run after all. None of the Republicans dropped out. They were not pleased.
In May, Spartz won the primary for this district district composed primarily of the northern suburbs of Indianapolis with 39% of the vote. Deborah Pickett won the two person Democratic primary with 60% of the vote. By June 30, neither nominee had a financial advantage. Their campaigns had spent all the money they had.
Deborah Pickett had also moved to Indianapolis for love. She grew up along the Hudson River, the child of a family with a history of military service – grandfathers, fathers, uncles, in-laws. She herself was in the reserves. The family were also conservationists, part of the great effort to clean up the Hudson River. A graduate of Skidmore, she was working for the Center for Integrative Development. She moved to Indianapolis to work for the Hudson Institute, a conservative leaning think tank and to marry Neil Pickett – a Hudson Institute staffer, a Brandeis graduate who also grew up near the Hudson River.
She worked on international issues, served on local boards, and decided to run for Congress. On October 9 WFYI interviewed Deborah Pickett about her candidacy. (As an aside, I want to comment on the professionalism of Indianapolis’s media. WFYI fact checks all their candidate interviews.).
Asked why she was running, Deborah Pickett responded – the attacks on democracy, the attacks on our rights, and the chaos in Congress. Her comments about issues of democracy were less about Trump’s campaign and more about the state government’s failure to involve farmers in land development plans, leaving them afraid decisions will be made that will affect their livelihood. Regarding the loss of rights, she focused on women’s loss of control over their own reproductive health. Regarding the chaos in congress, she spoke about the uncertainty created, for farmers again, because Congress has not yet passed the farm bill which requires renewal every five years. Asked about immigration, she spoke about the extent to which Indiana relies on immigrants for its economy. She noted that there were about 250,000 positions open in Indianapolis and the state is 42nd out of 50 states in terms of the percentage of its workforce with the skills needed for open jobs. WFYI was even handed in its fact checking. It noted in the interview transcript that the number of available nonfarm positions was now at 163,000, but that Indiana’s rank for skills needed was worse than Deborah Pickett had noted – 48th out of 50 states.
Victoria Spartz keeps on helping Democrats. With a high staff turnover rate, she has earned a reputation for inability to run her office. And, shockingly, she voted against aid to Ukraine.
Deborah Pickett has not gained the attention of the national media. Spartz will refill her coffers. Help Deborah Pickett compete. DONATE. With enough resources, she could flip this seat.
More on the Midwest
Nebraska
US Senate: Dan Osborn (Independent) to flip Republican Deb Fischer. Neutral October Poll. Osborn +5. Osborn campaign funded polls: October: Osborn +3, +3, +5. Fischer funded October poll: Fischer + 6. DONATE to Osborn
President, United States: October Polls: Donald Trump +11, +20, +20, +20 again
I’ll just say this once: DONATE TO KAMALA HARRIS AND TIM WALZ
NE 02. Tony Vargas (D) to flip Republican Don Bacon. Neutral September polls show Vargas leading +3, +6. Democratic funded September polls show Vargas leading +4, +8. DONATE TO VARGAS
Michigan.
US Senate: Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin to protect open Democratic seat. Neutral October polls show Elissa Slotkin v Congressman Mike Rogers, Even, +1, +4, +5, +5 again, and +6. DONATE TO Slotkin
President, United States: October polls: Kamala Harris +2, +2, +2, +2, +3, +3. Donald Trump +3. One poll found them even.
MI 07 Former State Senator Curtis Hertel v former State Senator Tom Barett. There are no polls from September or October. DONATE TO HERTEL
MI 08 State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet v former Trump immigration official Paul Junge. There are no polls from September or October. DONATE TO RIVET
MI 10 Former County Judge Carl Marlinga v Incumbent Congressman John James. There are no polls from September or October. DONATE TO MARLINGA
Wisconsin
US Senate: Incumbent Tammy Baldwin v Banker Eric Hovde. Neutral October polls show Baldwin leading +1, +4, +4 again, +5, and +5 again. DONATE TO BALDWIN
President, United States: Neutral polls. Kamala Harris: +1, +2. Donald Trump: +1, +2. Two polls found them Even. Republican funded polls: Donald Trump +1, +1;
WI 01 Former Congressman and current state official Peter Barca v to flip Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil. Neutral October poll shows Steil leading +3. DONATE TO BARCA
WI 03 Businesswoman and Non-profit head Rebecca Cooke to flip Incumbent Republican Congressman Derrick Van Orden. Democratic funded September poll found Cooke leading +2. Republican funded September poll found Van Orden leading +5. DONATE TO COOKE
WI 08 Medical Doctor Kristin Lyerly to flip current Republican seat by defeating gas station chain owner Tony Wied. There are no polls for this race. DONATE TO LYERLY
Ohio
US Senate: Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown v Car dealer a cyber investor Bernie Moreno. October polls show Brown leading +1, +2. Late +2. September polls show Brown leading +2, +2, and +4. DONATE TO BROWN
President, United States: October polls: Donald Trump +6, +6
OH 09: Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur v State Rep Derrick Merrin. There are no current polls. DONATE TO KAPTUR
OH 13 Incumbent Democrat Emilia Sykes v former State Senator Kevin Coughlin. There are no current polls. DONATE TO SYKES
Iowa
IA 01: Law Professor and former State Rep Christina Bohannan v Incumbent Marionette Miller-Meeks. October poll shows Christina Bohannan leading by 4 points. DONATE TO BOHANNAN
IA 03 Former US Agriculture Department Official Lanon Baccam v incumbent Zach Nunn. Two September polls, one funded by Democrats, show Baccam leading by 3 points and 4 points. DONATE TO LANON BACCAM
President, United States Neutral September poll shows Trump leading by 4 points. Republican funded September polls show Trump leading by 7 and 12 points.
Missouri
US Senate: National Security Expert Lucas Kunce v Incumbent Josh Hawley. An October poll shows Hawley leading by 8 points. DONATE TO KUNCE
President, United States: October Poll: Donald Trump +14
Governor: House Minority Leader Crystal Quade v Lt Governor Mike Kehoe. An October poll shows Kehoe leading by 10 points. DONATE TO QUADE
Attorney General: Attorney Elad Gross v Incumbent Andrew Bailey. End of August poll shows Bailey leading by 13 points. DONATE TO GROSS
Pennsylvania (an honorary midwestern state)
US Senate: Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. v former Hedge Fund CEO David McCormick October Polls show Casey leading +2, +3, +4, +6, +8, +8 again. DONATE TO CASEY
President, United States: Kamala Harris: +1, +1, +2, +3, +3, +4; Donald Trump +1, +1, +2. Republican funded polls: Even, +1, +1
PA 01: Veteran Ashley Ehasz v Incumbent Bryan Fitzpatrick. September polls: Democratic funded poll Fitzpatrick +5, Fitzpatrick funded poll: Fitzpatrick +14. DONATE TO EHASZ
PA 07 Incumbent Susan Wild v Republican State Rep Ryan MacKenzie. October poll: Susan Wild +6. DONATE TO WILD
PA 07 Incumbent Matt Cartwright v Businessman Rob Bresnahan. There are no polls. DONATE to Matt Cartwright
PA 10 Former TV Anchor Janelle Stelson v Incumbent Scott Perry. October poll: Stelson +9. DONATE to Janelle Stelson
PA 17 Incumbent Chris Deluzio v State Rep Rob Mercuri. Democratic funded September poll. Deluzio +4. DONATE TO Deluzio
WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO WIN
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
As we look toward November, we can see that the odds of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz winning the election have become better. You can strengthen those odds. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. I will say it again: DONATE TO KAMALA HARRIS AND TIM WALZ.
