July 9th , 2026 Len’s Political Note #824 Cait Conley New York 17
2026 General Election
I may have to retire. (Of course, I am 84 years old and I am retired. Len’s Political Notes is a hobby.)
For Len’s Political Note #823, I spent nearly the entire piece quoting Jamie Davis, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate from Louisiana. His angry prose is so clear and so personal, it is just plain better than anything I could have written about him. Maybe, better that anything anyone could have written about him. If he wins this race….even if he doesn’t, someone will collect his letters to potential funders and make a book of them.
For Len’s Political Note #824, Jennifer Rubin’s piece in the Contrarian about Cait Conley supports Conley’scandidacy for New York 17 so lucidly and with such effective passion, there is little I could say as well as she has done. I am going to quote nearly her entire piece.
“Democrats got their dream nominee, military vet Cait Conley, for the NY-17, which is among the most flippable House races in the country.
Her biographical details are beyond impressive: daughter of a working class Hudson Valley family, graduated in the top 2 percent of her West Point class (as the first in her family to go to college), earned advanced degrees from Harvard and MIT, served 16 years in the U.S. Army (winning 3 Bronze Stars), deployed overseas six times to combat, and served as director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council.
Impressive under any circumstances, her career honed the expertise, skills, and attributes most needed by an increasingly desperate Trump regime. [I am skipping a snarky reference to Trump here, though.]
While not designed with a specific adversary in mind, her career reflects a deliberate choice to face challenges that forge courage, integrity, honor, and decency. She embraces the “Steel sharpens steel,” West Point mindset, which she referenced in her victory speech. That attitude is perfectly aligned with what will be required to defeat a morally squalid Trump regime in rapid decline.
As impressive as she is on paper, Conley, in an interview with The Contrarian in January, showed equally critical assets — feistiness, wit, rapid-fire delivery, and sincere affection for her Hudson Valley community. For those who struggle to reconcile with Americans who put Trump back in office, Conley provided the perspective of someone whose family has lived for four generations in the Hudson Valley (in a district that barely went for Kamala Harris in 2024):
This isn’t what they signed up for. What they heard during his campaign was hope in his lies. Hope that someone was finally going to address the affordability crisis. Hope that someone was finally going to make America work for working Americans again.
She makes clear this is a campaign of, by, and for working-class Hudson Valley families. “We are going to meet people where they are, not as partisans, but as neighbors, as New Yorkers, as Americans,” she said on election night. “You know, we say throughout this campaign, defending democracy is a team sport. This is our team,” she said, gesturing to her supporters. “Across this district, people who are not here in the room tonight, that is also our team.”
If Conley sounds like a player-coach leading a “mission we begin together and we will finish together,” her opponent, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), invariably seems isolated, stressed (frequently hurrying down a hallway to avoid reporters), and dour. She embodies the ethos that “no one is coming to save us. We are the cavalry.” He conveys a near desperation to save himself from his own record of spinelessness, stuck justifying why his voting is indistinguishable from that of MAGA members from the Deep South.
The seat is ranked as a toss-up, but the national political environment, the advantage in candidate quality, and Conley’s effective 3-fold attack on Lawler suggest this is more akin to a “lean Democratic” seat.
First, he is a phony moderate, insistent that voters treat his excuses credulously. Think of him as the Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) of the House — always concerned, but never courageous. Had he cast hard “no” votes against Trump when they mattered, or demanded unfit Cabinet officials be fired, or treated oversight seriously, he might have convinced voters he still* had a moral pulse. But, given his track record, it is safe to assume that if voters reward him with another 2 years in Congress, he will keep bending the knee to Trump in D.C. and dissembling about his “independence” to voters back home.
Lawler doesn’t even have the nerve or smarts to develop scheduling conflicts when Trump shows up. After he appeared with Trump last month in his district, Conley slammed the duo: “Since Trump has taken office, it’s only gotten harder for families to make ends meet. But he clearly does not care and neither does Mike Lawler as he rips health care away from our neighbors and continues the illegal war in Iran jacking up gas prices.”
Second, Lawler’s duplicitous politics heighten his constituents’ economic hardship. In January, Conley told me Lawler is “a great shapeshifter,” who puts Trump, the Republican donor class, and corporate interests above fellow New Yorkers. “He is someone who serves one person, Mike Lawler. And unfortunately, the people here in the Hudson Valley have paid the price of this selfishness, and so have people around the country.” Given that the big, ugly bill passed by a single vote, she pointed out, “Mike Lawler was one vote that enabled it to become law.”
On election night, Conley let voters know this is personal. “His deciding vote gutted Medicaid, stripping healthcare from 37,000 people right here in our district. That’s our neighbors, our parents, our kids, our families,” she said. Likewise, she hit Lawler’s sellout to Trump that deepened families’ economic worries. “Mike Lawler voted eight separate times to protect Trump’s illegal, reckless tariffs. Tariffs that are raising prices on everything Hudson Valley families, our families depend on, our prescriptions, our groceries, things we can’t go without,” she said. Hudson Valley residents are paying the price for Lawler’s spinelessness.
Third, on matters of war and peace, Lawler is no patriot. Conley’s military record and willingness to risk her life for her country set up a devastating contrast with Lawler’s constitutionally and morally indefensible refusal to check Trump’s illegal, disastrous war (not to mention Trump’s extrajudicial killings on the high seas and murdering of Americans in the streets of Minneapolis and elsewhere). Conley has no patience for Lawler’s cowardice in voting “without hesitation to send our troops into harm’s way despite the clear incompetence of Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump, and the rest of this administration,” or for his using law enforcement as an excuse to justify extrajudicial murder. She blasted Lawler for blaming Alex Pretti and Renee Good’s deaths on failed immigration policies: “I will tell you as someone who started my military career as a military police officer who has conducted domestic law enforcement, what we are seeing has nothing to do with law enforcement. … We cannot afford to allow this administration to go unchecked and enabled by cowards like Mike Lawler.”
On election night, she continued hammering away:
[G]rowing up the way I did, we were taught to fight for our home. That’s why after 9/11, I went to West Point, spent 16 years leading America’s sons and daughters in defense of this nation, including six overseas tours. From combat zones to the White House situation room, I have spent my life answering the call to serve, tackling our nation’s hardest challenges. . . . And now, as I look around, I see a country that I was willing to die for become something I barely recognize.
Cait Conley remains undaunted in her battle to end the MAGA horror-scape, restore democracy, and reclaim the real meaning of patriotism: championing working-class people. The pro-democracy coalition should be very grateful she is running — and excited at the prospect of watching Lawler held to account for his cowardice”
Thank you to Jennifer Rubin. Thank you to the Contrarian for publishing her work. Consider subscribing to the Contrarian.
*I do have one quibble with Jennifer Rubin’s piece in addition to the snark I deleted. I am not at all certain that the incumbent Republican Mike Lawler ever had a “moral pulse.*”
Cait Conley was a reasonably strong fund raiser in this campaign. She raised $3.3 million to Mike Lawler’s $7.4 million. But Cait Conley had to win a competitive primary. On June 3, she reported having $900,000; Lawler reported $4.4 million. If Cait Conley is going to win this race, she will need more resources. DONATE to her campaign.
Other New York races
New York 01. Army Veteran and Democrat Chris Gallant trailed incumbent Republican Nick LaLota in the only poll for this race, a poll in November, 2025, by three points. Elected in 2022, Nick LaLota touts himself as a moderate Republican, but he was not one of the two Republicans who voted against Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill that sustained the tax cuts for the wealthy, used money from Medicaid to offset that revenue loss, and dropped subsidies for those purchasing health insurance under the ACA. That bill passed by a single vote. Openly gay and married to a man, Chris Gallant joined the National Guard out of high school and eventually became a Black Hawk helicopter pilot. As a civilian, he served as an FAA flight controller and a union leader. He has the potential to be competitive, but has less than $100,000 remaining from the primary season to LaLota’s $3 million. Chris Gallant will need your help if he is going to be competitive in November. DONATE.
New York 03 Believe Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi when he says he is “pushing back against Trump’s cuts to Medicaid, his cuts to food assistance, and the terrible cuts the Administration has made that are putting our drinking water and beautiful Long Island Sound at risk.” The former mayor and county executive is a feisty middle of the round Democrat who is likely to be as critical of those to his left as he is critical of Trump. He is also taking the lead in proposing a comprehensive federal law to end gerrymandering. His opponent for this election is former Congressman Mike LiPetri. There are no polls for this race, but there is a substantial gap in the financial race. On June 3, Tom Suozzi reported $5.4 million available to LiPresti’s $750,000. You can DONATE to Tom Suozzi’s campaign. That will help cement his lead in this wealthy northwestern Long Island district. See Len’s Political Note #760
New York 04. Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen has been an actress, a set designer, an attorney, the chief executive officer in the largest town in the country, and a volunteer with Mother Teresa. There are no recent polls for Laura Gillen’s race against town official Jeanine Driscoll for this wealthy district in southwest Long Island. On June 3, Laura Gillen had a comfortable lead in the financial race: $3.4 million to $200,000. You can DONATE to Laura Gillen’s campaign, That will help cement her lead. See Len’s Political Note #729
New York 19. Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley returned home after a career as an attorney for Democratic politicians and policies to this district that stretches along the southern tier from Ithaca in the west to the Massachusetts border. He was elected to Congress in 2024 and preferred bipartisan issues where he could find them – expanding financial support to poultry farmers, easing refrigeration requirements for pasteurized eggs. There are no polls for this race. Josh Riley has a substantial lead in the financial race. The June 3 reports show him leading State Senator Peter Oberacker $2.9 million to $250,000. You can DONATE to Josh Riley’s campaign, That will help cement his lead in this wealthy northwestern Long Island district. See Len’s Political Note #727.
New York 21 Dairy Farmer Blake Gendebien has been running for this seat since we expected a special election after Congresswoman Elisse Stefanik was appointed Ambassador to the UN. Except, of course, Donald Trump changed plans and she was never appointed to that position. She is not running for reelection to this district that encompasses the northeast corner of New York state – from nearly the entire Vermont border west just short of Lake Erie. In a particularly bitter Republican primary, Trump endorsee businessman Anthony Constantino defeated Assemblyman Robert Smollen who is still considering an opportunity to make this a three way race by accepting the Conservative Party nomination. In a two way poll in May, Constantino led Blake Gendebien 41-40 in this very Republican district. Constantino is funding his campaign with his own money. The $7.5 million he reports having raised is a personal loan to the campaign. He has $3 million on June 3 and had promised to lend a total of $10 million to the campaign. Blake Gendebien had raised $5 million, kept his name visible, and reported having $2.3 million available for his campaign on June 3. Smollen reported having $500,000. If Blake Gendebien is going to compete, he will need more resources. DONATE to his campaign. It would be an investment toward achieving a majority, perhaps a substantial majority, in the US House of Representatives. See Len’s Political Note #706
New York 24 It is unlikely that any other national column will encourage readers to help out Alissa Ellman. The incumbent Republican is Claudia Tenney. She is, perhaps. the most retrograde Republican Congresswoman. New York 24 has been described as the state’s most Republican district. A Democratic opponent is unlikely to unseat her. But in a Blue Wave? Consider offering some support to Democrat Allissa Ellman. Lockport-based, in a district that stretches east from Niagara County, skipping south so it is south of Rochester and its suburbs, and continuing east to Watertown, Allisa Ellman is a disabled vet who has worked on behalf of veterans. She supports gun rights, expansion of Medicaid, and immigrants who are essential to farmers in the district. She has a focus on the importance of strengthening infrastructure in rural areas. There are no polls for this district. In the financial race, a fairly complacent Tenney reported $1.1 million available on June 3. Allisa Ellman had virtually nothing. DONATE to the Democrat. Help her make this into a contest.
State Races
Governor. Incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul had been a Congresswoman from Western New York and was Andrew Cuomo’s Lt. Governor when he resigned in embarrassment. As the new Governor in 2021, she collected a bunch of firsts – New York’s first woman governor, first governor from outside the New York City Metropolitan area in 89 years, first governor from north of Hyde Park in 99 years, first governor from Western New York in 111 years. She was elected in 2022 and is the favorite to defeat Long Island County Executive Bruce Blakeman in 2026. Polls in March and April had her leading by double digit teens. A June poll had her leading by 20 points. She is leading in the financial race as well. In her most recent report, Kathy Hochul had $20 million cash on hand; Blakeman had $1.6 million, though he was waiting for $3.5 million of matching funds for which he is eligible. You can DONATE to Kathy Hochul’s campaign and help consolidate her lead.
Attorney General. Incumbent Democrat Letitia James is on Donald Trump’s enemy’s list. She is pretty high on that list. When she ran for Attorney General, she announced she would shed a light on Trump’s illegal acts. As Attorney General she won a civil suit against him for misrepresenting his wealth by hundreds of millions of dollars – lowering the value of his holdings to reduce taxes, increasing the value of his holdings to make it easier to obtain loans. Perhaps in exchange, perhaps as a product of the work of Bill Pulte’s FIFA office, the Eastern District of Virginia indicted Letitia James for mortgage fraud. Donald Trump would love to see the Republican nominee Saritha Komatireddy defeat Letitia James. The Republican has been arguing that Letitia James has neglected to prosecute Medicaid fraud. Campaign spending on state wide offices even in a state as large and wealthy as New York is much lower than for the top job of governor. Letitia James has raised $3.6 million. Saritha Komatireddy has raised about $600,000. DONATE to Letitia James’s campaign to help her keep her lead and the sense of inevitability about her election.
