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January 15th, 2024 Len’s Political Note #614 Dan Osborn Nebraska US Senate
2024 General Election
Here is a surprise. If you look at 538’s list of polls of Senate races and focus on November, you will see one for Nebraska. There is no Democratic candidate. Dan Osborn is an independent. And he is up by 2 points against the Republican incumbent.
Don’t make too much of a single poll. This is a poll paid for by the candidate’s supporters. It could be skewed a little bit to show that Dan Osborn is competitive. Or Dan Osborn could be competitive. Let’s look at who he is. And you really do have to look at who he is. According to “The Intercept,” 59% of the poll’s respondents had no idea who he was.
Don Osborn is a union guy. He was president of Local 50G of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers, and Grain Millers International Union. On October 5, 2021, the union (BCTGM) went on strike in plants in four cities. This was not a snap decision. The labor contract had expired in 2020, but had been extended. Negotiations continued with the company seeking to retain a two-tiered pay system. Newer employees were paid at a lower rate and did not escape that lower rate for four years. The union wanted to eliminate the two-tiered pay scale. Kellogg wanted to expand it by removing a 30% cap on the number of employees who could be in the lower tier.
Kellogg threatened to move some production outside the country. Dan Osborn responded, on behalf of the union saying “A lot of Americans probably don’t have too much issue with the Nike or Under Armor hats being made elsewhere or even our vehicles, but when they start manufacturing our food down where they are out of the FDA control and OSHA control, I [and other Americans] have a huge problem with that.”
A preliminary agreement was achieved by December, but was voted down by the membership on December 5. The situation became tense and political. The company announced plans to hire 1,400 contract workers. (That would not have been easy to achieve. As the country was moving out of the pandemic, we discovered that fewer people were planning on working.). President Biden weighed in, denouncing the plan for contract workers. The union held a rally and planned a bigger one with Senator Bernie Sanders as the main attraction. BCTGM and other unions began talk of a boycott of Kellogg’s breakfast cereals. People would skip Corn Flakes and Fruit Loops and Apple Jacks.
The union voted approval of a revised proposed contract on December 21. The two-tiered contract remained, but the difference between the tiers was narrowed. The four years remained as did the 30% cap. Pay increased in a way that was consistent with the new conditions of labor scarcity. And unions saw that successful strikes were possible.
Dan Osborn is from Omaha. He went to Roncalli Catholic High School in Omaha. After graduation, he joined the Navy, which his father had done. In 2004, home after four years on the USS Constellation where his work included tasks such as fixing fire safety equipment, he joined the National Guard and went to work for Kellogg. At the factory, depending on your terminology, he was an industrial mechanic or a steamfitter.
Dan Osborn was a leader during the strike. He knew a little about politics. His dad had been a County Commissioner. He has got his talk about the issues straight. He says Nebraska has produced leaders who think about issues rather than political parties. He positions himself explaining that “The divisions in this country are threatening our great democratic experiment.” He could, “bring people together around common goals.”
Dan Osborn has some goals. A few of them, I have never seen in a campaign website before: Guarantee a right to repair – for farm equipment, cars, and electronics (a blow against the big corporations). Lower taxes on overtime wages (Workers make a sacrifice when the work overtime, they should not pay for that sacrifice by being moved into a higher tax bracket). A few of his goals cross party lines. Cut taxes for small businesses and the middle class. (He is convinced there is waste to be eliminated to pay for the tax cuts.) Reform railroad safety. Some of his goals resound for Democrats. Legalize and tax medical cannabis. End wasteful handouts to the pharmaceutical industry. Keep government out of our private lives. His Platform will resonate in Nebraska.
He has his union available to help him collect the 4,000 signatures he needs by September 1, 2024 to be on the ballot. He might just have the Democratic Party available for support as well. They could choose not to field a candidate (they do not have one now) and support Dan Osborn instead.
If Dan Osborn can win the election, he could be in a position to bring Senators together around common goals. Depending on who he caucuses with, he could create the majority and set some terms for what the majority might address and achieve.
Dan Osborn will have to defeat Deb Fischer, former school board member, state legislator, and surprise Republican US Senate primary winner in 2012. She went on to defeat Bob Kerrey, the last Democratic Senator from Nebraska. She is running for a third term, though she has been a supporter of term limits and had initially promised to limit herself to two terms.
Deb Fischer argues that climate change is a product of natural cycles rather than a result of carbon dioxide and other emissions. She opposed limits on gun access, even for those on the terrorist watch list, explaining that such limits would not prevent mass shootings. She has said she is “fine with” Supreme Court decisions extending rights to members of the LGBTQ community. She voted to certify the results of the 2000 election, condemned the January 6th insurrectionists, but voted against creating an independent commission to investigate the attack on the Capitol.
When she announced her 2024 campaign, she spoke about obtaining funds for a new runway at the Offutt Air Force Base, for levees to protect the base from flooding, for broadband funding expected as part of the infrastructure bill that she supported, as well as anticipated water quality and wastewater treatment that was coming. She noted that she had been described as more conservative than Josh Hawley, and was proud of the Supreme Court Justices she had voted for who had overturned Roe v Wade,
DONATE TO DON OSBORN. He would make a difference in the US Senate. A little independence won’t hurt at all. He might be a more benign replacement as an independent than Joe Manchin has been.
Support Joe Biden for President.
One more thing. the Democrats can afford to lose a net of one Senate seat in this election and still retain control of the US Senate IF Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are reelected. Do not forget to support them. Every month, do not forget to support them.
As we look toward November, 2024, Help sustain the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaign. Every donation, large or small, does make a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO JOE BIDEN AND KAMALA HARRIS. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/web-bfp-december-2023 ‘
Put things in perspective. In polls after December 15 and before the New Year, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in two polls – by 1 and 4 points. Biden and Trump are even in two polls. And Biden trails Trump in four polls – by 2 and 4 points
THE SENATE RACES
Democratic Seats in the order of vulnerability (my opinion)
Arizona – Congressman Ruben Gallego. Ruben Gallego had $5 million on October 1. Senator Kyrsten Sinema had $10.8 million. Former journalist and former governor candidate Kari Lake, who is the probable candidate, reported no campaign funds available while County Sheriff Mark Lamb reported a little more than $300 thousand. In 2022, the Democratic candidate, Mark Kelly, was elected by 5.1 points. The polls to date show:
- Gallego up by 5 in an Oct 7 PPP (D) poll over Lake
- Gallego up by 5 with Sinema included. She is down by 26
- Gallego even in an Oct 9 National Research poll with Lake
- Gallego even with Lake with Sinema included. She is down by 18
- Gallego up by 3 in an Oct 24 McLaughlin (R ) poll over Lake
- Gallego down by 1 with Sinema included. She is down by 22
- Gallego is up by 6 in an Oct 31 Noble poll over Lake
- Gallego is up by 4 with Sinema included. She is down by 10
- Gallego is up by 5 in a Nov 20 Tulchin poll over Lake
- Gallego is up by 5 with Sinema included. She is down by 22.
- Gallego is down by 6 in a Dec 8 VCreek/AMG (R ) poll to Lake
- Gallego is down by 6 with Sinema included. She is down by 25
See Len’s Political Note #544. DONATE TO RUBEN GALLEGO
Montana – Jon Tester. Jon Tester began October with $13 million in cash; Tim Sheehy had $1.1 million. Sheehy’s Net Worth has been described as $11 million. In 2020, Republican Steve Daines was elected to the US Senate 55-45. The only recent poll for 2024 shows:
- Tester up 4 points in an October 4 report of an Emerson College poll.
See Len’s Political Note #550 DONATE TO JON TESTER
Nevada – Jacky Rosen. Jacky Rosen began October with $8.8 million. Former Army Captain, House candidate, and scion of a wealthy family Sam Brown began with $940 thousand. In 2022, Catherine Cortez Masto was elected to the US Senate by a margin of 8 tenths of a point. The only recent poll for 2024 shows:
- Rosen up by 5 in a Tarrance Group (R ) Oct 26 poll over Brown.
See Len’s Political Note #564 DONATE TO JACKY ROSEN
Michigan – Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin. Elissa Slotkin entered October with $5.1 million. Former Congressman Mike Rogers entered October with just under $800 thousand. No other candidate had significant funds. In 2020, Democrat Gary Peters was elected to the US Senate by a margin of 1.7%. The only poll for the 2024 race shows:
- Slotkin is up by 2 in a Nov 16 EPIC-MRA poll over former Congressman Mike Rogers and by the same margin over former Police Chief James Craig.
Help keep Elissa Slotkin well ahead of Republican competitors DONATE TO ELISSA See Len’s Political Note #589
Ohio – Sherrod Brown. Sherrod Brown entered October with $11.2 million. Matt Dolan began the month with $6.7 million, Bernie Moreno with $5 million, and Frank La Rose with $870 thousand. In 2022, Republican JD Vance was elected to the US Senate by a margin of 6.1%. Polls for 2024 show:
- Brown up by 2 in an Emerson poll on Dec. 4, down by 1 to LaRose and 2 to Dolan;
- Brown up by 13 points on La Rose in an Oct 19 Ohio Northern U poll, up by 15 over Dolan, by 22 over Moreno;
- Brown up by 3 in a Nov. 2 Data for Progress poll over Moreno, by 1 over Dolan and even with LaRose.
- Brown up by 10 in an Emerson poll on Nov. 13 over Moreno, by 5 over La Rose and 3 over Dolan
See Len’s Political Note #556. DONATE TO SHERROD BROWN
Pennsylvania – Bob Casey Jr. Bob Casey Jr entered October with $7.4 million. David McCormick reported no campaign funds to start October. Reports show McCormick’s net worth at more than $116 million and may be substantially more. In 2022, John Fetterman won the Senate race by 5 points. Polls for 2024 show:
- Casey up by 6 in a Quinnipiac Oct 2 poll over McCormick
- Casey up by 8 in an Emerson Oct 4 poll over McCormick
- Casey up by 7 in a Franklin & Marshall Oct 22 poll over McCormick
- Casey up by 15 in a Bullfinch Group Dec 12 poll over McCormick
See Len’s Political Note #581 DONATE TO BOB CASEY
Wisconsin – Tammy Baldwin. Tammy Baldwin began October with $6.8 million. No potential opponent, including Businessman Eric Hovde, who the Republican establishment wants to run, had more than a few thousand dollars. In 2022, Republican Ron Johnson won the US Senate race by a single percentage point. There are no polls for Wisconsin’s 2024 race since October 1. See Len’s Political Note #570. DONATE TO TAMMY BALDWIN
A Separate Category for the most vulnerable Democratic Seat
West Virginia – Incumbent Joe Manchin announced he would not run. When he was running, an Emerson College poll showed him leading Congressman Alex Mooney by 8 points and trailing Governor Jim Justice by 12. Neither of the two possible Democratic candidates – Farmer and former coal miner Cecil Silva nor Huntington Mayor Steve Williams – is likely to do as well. In 2020, Shelly Moore Capito won the election by a margin of 43 points.
Democrats who could flip a Republican Senate Seat
Missouri – Lucas Kunce v Incumbent Josh Hawley. Lucas Kunce entered October with $1.7 million available to spend. His primary opponent, Prosecutor Wesley Bell, had little money available. Inc Senator Josh Hawley had already spent $13 million and had $4.7 million available. In 2022, Eric Schmitt won election to the US Senate by a margin of 13.2 points. Polls for 2024 show:
- Kunce down by 13 in an Emerson Oct 4 poll to Hawley, Bell down by only 10
- Kunce down by 3 in an Oct 31 Show me Victories poll to Hawley
Do not quit on this race. DONATE TO LUCAS KUNCE
See Len’s Political Note #538
Florida – Former Member of Congress Debbie Mucarsel-Powell v Incumbent Rick Scott A June Democratic funded poll on behalf of now Congressional candidate Phil Ehr who withdrew from the Senate race in favor of Debbie Mucarsel-Powell found him behind Scott 45-41. As of October 1, Incumbent Rick Scott had already spent more than $12 million on his campaign and still had $3 million available. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell had $1 million. Scott is a billionaire; Mucarsel-Powell has a record of being an excellent fund raiser. In 2022, Marco Rubio won election to the US Senate by 16.4%. DONATE TO DEBBIE MUCARSEL- POWELL See Len’s Political Note #597
Texas – Congressman Colin Allred v Incumbent Ted Cruz. Colin Allred has been an effective fund raiser and entered October with $7.9 million. He will need to spend a little of that to fend off State Senator Roland Guttierez in the primary. Although Colin Allred had more than Ted Cruz’s $5.7 on October 1, Cruz had already spent $35 million to keep his lead. In 2020 John Cornyn won election to the Senate by 9.4%.
- Allred down by 16 in a YouGov Dec 10 poll to Cruz, Guitterez down by only 14
DONATE TO COLIN ALLRED. See Len’s Political Note #560
Imagine a surprise
Nebraska – Union Leader Dan Osborn reported $50,000 available on October 1. He is running as an Independent. The two Democrats who have explored running had not raised money. Debra Fischer, the incumbent, had $2.6 million available. In 2020, Ben Sasse was elected to the US Senate by 38.3%. A single poll for 2024 shows:
- Osborn was up by 2 in an Nov 16 Change Research (D) poll to Fischer. DONATE TO DON OSBORN
Indiana – Psychologist Valerie McCray reported no fund raising for October 1. She is not the only potential Democratic candidate, but the only one to be polled. She was polled against Congressman Jim Banks for this open seat. He is one of two Republican possibilities for the Senate race. He reported $2.7 million available on Oct 1. A potential Republican primary opponent, farmer John Rust had $1 million, but the courts may keep him off the ballot. In 2022, Republican Todd Young was elected to the US Senate by 19.7 points.
- McCray was down by 9 in an Oct 4 Emerson poll to Banks
DONATE TO VALERIE MCCRAY
Tennessee – State Rep Gloria Johnson. Gloria Johnson had $1.2 million on October 1. Incumbent Marsha Blackburn had $6.5 million on that date. When the Tennessee House expelled two Black Representatives, they missed expelling Gloria Johnson by a single vote – all for protesting for gun safety on the House floor with people in the gallery. The most recent Democratic Senate candidate Marquita Bradshaw is also in the race. Marsha Blackburn could easily join Ted Cruz Josh Hawley, and Rick Scott as a Rogue’s Gallery of terrible US Senators. In 2020, Bill Haggerty won election to the US Senate by 27 points. Polls for 2024 show:
- Johnson down by 20 in an Oct 16 Targoz poll to Blackburn, Bradshaw down only by 12,
- Johnson down by 17 in a Dec 2 SSRS poll to Backburn by 17
DONATE TO GLORIA JOHNSON
