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January 19th, 2024 Len’s Political Note #615 Josh Harder California 09
2024 General Election
This is a story of three men. Three men in or around Stockton, California.
Stockton is in the middle of California’s 9th Congressional District. Now it has more than 300,000 people. In 1940, when the population was slightly more than 50,000, 90% of those people were white. In 2010, 37% of the almost 300,000 people were white. 20% of the 300,000 was Asian. 40% of the population was Latino. 12% of the population was African American.
Michael Tubbs, the first of the three men, is African American. Tubbs was lionized, made into an icon. His dad was in prison while he was growing up. His mom was a teenager when he was born. Nevertheless, he was an outstanding student. He went to Stanford, graduated receiving a variety of honors including a Truman Fellowship and a Phi Beta Kapp Key. After Oxford, he came home to run for City Council. Oprah donated money to his campaign. Michael Tubbs walloped the Republican Councilman so thoroughly that they made a movie about him. By the time he was 26, he had been elected mayor, ousting another Republican.
Then things went awry. He may have been too bold a mayor. He experimented with universal basic income, selecting at random 125 families as recipients. He attracted a local blogger’s criticism. He may not have cultivated his base the way politicians do. Singling out 125 families, even by lottery, leaves out a lot of people. During the campaign he was the subject of another adulatory documentary. He did not, however get the support of the police union or the fire fighters’ union. And he certainly did not get the support of the local blogger – who came in fourth with the first round of voting with 10% of the vote.
Things looked hopeful after the first round. Tubbs got 41% of the vote to Kevin Lincoln’s 22%. But Lincoln won the run off – 57-43. If Tubbs has further ambitions, they do not seem to be political. He has written a memoir and provided commentary to still another documentary.
Kevin Lincoln has further ambitions. He grew up in Stockton with his Mexican-American mother and African-American father. He was not en route to Stanford. In 2001, he joined the Marines. After four years, he returned home, worked for securities firms, and studied on line. He got an AA from the University of Phoenix (a large for-profit online university), a BS in business management from Grand Canyon University (which describes itself as an accredited, affordable, online Christian University), and an MA in Executive Leadership from Liberty University (well-known for its founder, the Rev. Jerry Falwell, less well known for scandals under the leadership of the younger Falwell). Kevin Lincoln became the Executive Administrative Pastor of the LifeSong Church.
Kevin Lincoln ran for mayor. He defeated Michael Tubbs. The way Kevin Lincoln tells it, after he was elected mayor, his prayers were answered. He had prayed that God would send him the right people. Greg Helland of the Capitol Ministries was the right person. He asked Kevin Lincoln if he and other members of his administration would be interested in a weekly Bible session. Of course he was interested. Lincoln was particularly interested, according to a Capitol Ministries update, because “There has been constant turnover in [Stockton’s] executive leadership. My purpose in this season of my life is to provide leadership stability for the people of Stockton.”
And Kevin Lincoln’s ambitions? Elected mayor in 2020, he is the Republican candidate for California’s 9thCongressional District in 2024.
The third man is Josh Harder. Josh Harder is the Democratic incumbent of California’s 9th Congressional District. He’s not from Stockton. His is originally from Turlock — about 40 minutes south of Stockton. Now Josh Harder lives in Tracy – a half hour away from Stockton, but in California 09.
California 09 has demographics that resemble Stockton’s. The Congressional District is 37% Latino, 35% white, 14% Asian, and 9% African American. California 09 is more prosperous than Stockton by itself with an $86,000 median household income rather than $64,000. Kevin Lincoln was able to defeat Michael Tibbs’, in part, because Tibbs seemed to be striving to become a member of the elite. Can Kevin Lincoln do the same to Josh Harder, a white man and constituency that is already more prosperous?
Republicans complain that Democrats are members of the “elite.” No matter that a fair number of Republicans, including Presidential prospects went to Ivy League Schools or Stanford or Rice. They are, by definition, apparently, not elite because they are Republicans.
Josh Harder, whose father was an optometrist, came from a family that, for generations, owned a peach orchard. That makes him the kind of Democrat Republicans love to call a member of the elite. That he grew up in Turlock, California in the Central Valley and lives nearby does not exempt him from that claim. Worse. He went to Stanford.
Still Worse. After Stanford, he went to Harvard where he got an MBA and a Master’s Degree in Public Policy from the Kennedy School.
Even Worse. He met his wife, Pamela Gale Sud, while they were both students at Stanford. She also went to Harvard where she got an MBA and a Master’s Degree in Public Policy.
Worse and even more elite and global, her mother taught mathematics and computer technology in the Fairfax (VA) County Public Schools, her father, Inder Kumar Sud, was a regional director of the World Bank. He was also the head of the World Bank Alumni Association. Republicans would consider that the kind of elite we should stay away from.
Josh Harder and his wife had their careers.
After Stanford, from 2008 to 2011, Josh Harder worked as a consultant for the Boston Consulting Group. The Boston Consulting Group does management consulting around the world. Along with Bain & Company and McKinsey & Company, it is one of the three largest consulting firms in the world. That kind of work can be the start of an elite career. It could even be an elite Republican career.
After Stanford, from 2008 to 2010, Pam Harder worked as a Junior Professional Associate for the World Bank. She worked on energy related international development including an energy efficiency loan to Mexico and evaluation of geothermal and hydropower projects. Working to minimize the climate crisis? There is the start of an elite career.
These jobs were followed, for both of them, by MBAs and Master’s in Public Policy at Harvard.
After Harvard, from 2014 to 2017, Josh Harder was back in Turlock working in San Francisco as a Vice President of Bessemer Venture Partners. This venture capital firm has $10 Billion which it manages and invests around the world. One more step in what could have been an elite career.
After Harvard, from 2013 to 2016, Pam Sud was back in Washington working as a senior consultant for FSG, a consulting firm that has, as its mission, helping organizations reimagine their approach to social change to create a more equitable world. She advised the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the creation of a new education and arts foundation in New York City, and co-authored a Harvard Business School case study. What could be more elite than that?
In 2016, Pam Sud was in San Francisco working as the Head of Strategy and Business Operations for Clever, Inc., a firm that intends to make education more equitable and engaging through technology.
In 2017, Josh Harder left Bessemer to teach as an adjunct at a local community college and to organize his campaign to run for Congress.
In 2018, Josh Harder and Pam Sud married.
In 2018, Josh Harder was elected to Congress by a 52-48 margin. He was reelected in 2020 by a 10 point margin. In 2022, he defeated a former boxer by 14 points.
From 2019 to the present, Pam Harder has worked for the Virginia Economic Development Partnership, most recently as Director of Strategy and Operations for the group she created, launched, and runs called the Virginia Office of Education Economics. The VOEE analyzes Virginia’s education and labor market in order to increase economic mobility.
In Congress Josh Harder joined the New Democratic Coalition, the largest Democratic caucus group which sees itself as fiscally conservative and socially progressive. He also joined the Problem Solvers Caucus, a group of Democrats and Republicans who have attempted, without great success, to create bi-partisan solutions.
His committee assignments have been Agriculture (appropriate to his rural district) and Appropriations (among the most powerful committees). He has been an advocate for limiting the cost of insulin to $35 per month, an advocate for Upward Bound which has programs at Modesto junior colleges, improving water infrastructure and quality, and the use of satellite technology to understand regional agricultural challenges.
A power couple? A potentially powerful Member of Congress? Yes on both counts. Members of the elite? They are working to improve the country, not just working to make money. They each could have created careers that would have made them among the super-rich. Instead, they have opted for public service. They are the kind of elite that seems to offend Republicans the most.
Josh Harder has big goals. Fix homelessness. Fix the immigration problem. Fight corruption. He touts his ordinary successes, especially successes that focus on his district. Lifting the ban on whole milk being served in public schools. Warning constituents about scams. Announcing federal funds for Community Health Centers. Opposing electricity rate hikes. Opposing a state planned tunnel to ship water from the San Joaquin Valley to Los Angeles (He says – to Beverly Hills; he can fight the elites, too). Inviting veterans and gold star family members to apply for jobs in his office.
Josh Harder may be young, but he is not as young as Michael Tibbs. Josh Harder may have elite credentials, but he has a common touch (or at least he works at having one). Josh Harder is a practical politician in still another way. He is taking Kevin Lincoln seriously. He has $2.3 million available for his campaign. Lincoln has $200,000. Help Josh Harder stay ahead of his opponent. DONATE TO JOSH HARDER.
Support Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
As we look toward November, 2024, Help sustain the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaign. Put things in perspective. In polls after December 15 and before the New Year, Joe Biden led Donald Trump in two polls – by 1 and 4 points. Biden and Trump were even in two polls. And Biden trailed Trump in four polls – by 2 and 4 points If things remain as they are – which they never do – this will be a close race.
Every donation, large or small, does make a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO JOE BIDEN AND KAMALA HARRIS. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/web-bfp-december-2023 ‘
House races in the Northwest and the Pacific. There are a lot of potentially close races.
Two Big Money California races where you should donate now
Will Rollins in CA 41 is running against Incumbent Republican Ken Calvert who is #17 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and tied at #19 on Daily Kos’s List. This promises to be a high spending race. The incumbent had $2 Million on October 1, Will Rollins had $1.5 Million. DONATE TO WILL ROLLINS. See Len’s Political Note #588
George Whitesides CA 27 will be the Democratic nominee against Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia, who is #19 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans, tied for #7 on Daily Kos’s List. Garcia’s good fortune may have run out. In this race he must run against former CEO George Whitesides. On October 1, George Whitesides had a slight lead in the money race — $1.7 Million to $1.6 Million. Help him win this. DONATE TO GEORGE WHITESIDES. See Len’s Political Note #608
Ten West Coast and Northwest races where your donations could make a difference
Adam Gray in CA 13 is running against Republican incumbent John Duarte, who is #2 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and #1 on Daily Kos’s List. With $200,000 in the bank on October 1, Adam Gray has to catch up with the incumbent who had $1.2 Million. DONATE TO ADAM GRAY. See Len’s Political Note #586
Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA 03 is #4 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and #2 on Daily Kos’s list of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. On October 1, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had $1.6 Million available for her campaign. Her previous opponent, right wing extremist Joe Kent had $400,000. Help her stay well ahead of him. DONATE TO MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ. See Len’s Political Note #543
Incumbent Andrea Salinas OR 06 is #6 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and tied for #22 on Daily Kos’s list. As of October 1, Andrea Salinas has $750,000 available for her campaign. Her probable opponent had less than $50,000. Help Andrea Salinas dominate this race. DONATE TO ANDREA SALINAS. See Len’s Political Note #548
Rudy Salas CA 22 is running against Incumbent Republican David Valadao who is #7 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and #3 on Daily Kos’s List. The incumbent had $1.2 Million on October 1 to Rudy Salas’s $150,000. Rudy Salas has some catching up to do. DONATE TO RUDY SALAS. See Len’s Political Note #602
Help Monica Tranel. The Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke is #13 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans in the House. He is #29 on Daily Kos’s List. The incumbent had $1.6 Million on October 1; Monica Tranel had a respectable $600,000. Help her catch up. Help the people of Montana remain conscious of the fact that Ryan Zinke was fired by Trump for corruption and won with only 49.7% of the vote in 2022. She can win this election DONATE TO MONICA TRANEL. See Len’s Political Note #603
National Security Figure Jessica Morse will be the Democratic nominee for CA 03 against Republican first term incumbent Kevin Kiley who is #24 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans and tied for #7 on Daily Kos’s List. On October 1 Kiley had $1.5 Million available; Jessica Morse had a respectable $500,000. If she can ramp up her fund raising, she can flip this seat. Help Jessica Morse. DONATE TO JESSICA MORSE. See Len’s Political Note #612
Incumbent Mike Levin CA 49 is #25 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on both Len’s List and Daily Kos’s List. Mike Levin has some opponents raising money. He had $1 Million on October 1. One opponent had $900,000. Another had $800,000. DONATE TO MIKE LEVIN. See Len’s Political Note #591
Incumbent Mary Peltola AK AL is #35 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and is #18 on Daily Kos’s List. On October 1, Mary Peltola had a substantial lead in the financial race with $1 Million. Her previous opponent had only $200,000. The Lt. Governor, Nancy Dahlstrom, however, had not yet entered the race for that reporting period. The addition of Dahlstrom and the complexities of Alaska’s system of ranked voting for the preliminary four leading candidates makes the whole process unpredictable. Help Mary Peltola dominate the race. DONATE TO MARY PELTOLA. See Len’s Political Note #600
Incumbent Val Hoyle OR 04 is #36 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List. Val Hoyle’s$400,000 on October 1 would seem anemic for an incumbent. However, her potential opponents’ fund raising was negligible. Help Val Hoyle dominate this race. DONATE TO VAL HOYLE.
Incumbent Josh Harder CA 09 could be vulnerable to Republican Kevin Lincoln, Mayor of Stockbridge, the big city in the district, a religious leader, and a former Marine. Josh Harder has a big financial lead $2.3 Million vs $200,000. Keep Josh Harder well ahead. Make certain this is not a vulnerable seat. DONATE TO JOSH HARDER
Two races where the Democrat is looking good
Incumbent Jim Costa CA 21 is #14 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List. On October 1, Jim Costa had a modest $650,000, while his Republican opponent had $150,000. DONATE TO JIM COSTA. See Len’s Political Note #566
Incumbent Kim Schrier WA 08 is #32 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and tied for #22 on Daily Kos’s List. She had $1.8 Million available on October 1. Her opponents had very little in the way of funds. Help her dominate this race. DONATE TO KIM SCHRIER. See Len’s Political Note #606
The Big Senate race in the Northwest
Incumbent Jon Tester of Montana. See Len’s Political Note #550. With Joe Manchin no longer running for reelection, many see Jon Tester as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent and the place that Republican money will go. Jon Tester is prepared financially. On October 1, he had $13 Million available, ten times as much as Tim Sheehy his probable opponent who has enough money to make up the difference from his personal checkbook. Help Jon Tester stay ahead in this high dollar race. DONATE TO JON TESTER. See Len’s Political Note #550
