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Arizona is our fourteenth largest state. Like all states, Arizona has 2 US Senators. Arizona also has 9 Members of Congress – 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Inexplicably, the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission created new maps with 6 Republican leaning districts, 2 Democratic leaning districts, and one toss-up.
Arizona races
US Senate – Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly (Political Note #387) is considered one of the four most vulnerable Democrats. He will be opposed by any of 5 possible Republicans
Governor – Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (Political Note #402) will be the Democratic nominee. She will be opposed either by former Fox anchor and Trump endorsee Kari Lake or a candidate who has raised more than Lake has — Businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, or Businessman Steve Gaynor
Current Democratic Congressional seats – Of the five seats two remain safely Democrat. The three competitive seats are:
AZ 02 R+15 Democratic Incumbent Tom O’Halleran (Political Note #389) will be opposed, if the money race means anything, by Republican CEO Eli Crane
AZ 04 D+1 Democratic Incumbent Greg Stanton (Political Note #487) will be opposed, based on money raised so far, by either Restaurateur Kelly Cooper or former Senate aide Tanya Wheeless.
AZ 06 R+7 Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick retired. Based on money raised, either Law Professor Kirsten Engel or former Gabby Gifford aide Daniel Hernandez will be opposed by Republican Juan Ciscomani, an aide to Governor Ducey.
Current Republican Seats – Of the four seats, three remain safely Republican. The competitive seat is:
AZ 01 R+7 Activist Jevin Hodge has raised enough money to compete against the Republican incumbent, Dave Schweikart, who has been weakened by scandal, or against the incumbent’s principal primary opponent entrepreneur Elijah Norton.
Other constitutional offices
Attorney General
Democrat Corporation Commission Chair Kristin Mayes (Political Note #470) v any of 6 Republicans of whom the largest fund raisers are ex Democrat Rodney Glassman, Prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh, Court of Appeals Judge Andrew Gould, and Corporate Counsel Dawn Grove.
Secretary of State
Democratic House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding (Political Note #437) is the probable nominee, although he is being outraised by former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes. The two largest Republican fund raisers are Oath Keeper Mark Finchem and Advertising Executive Beau Lane.
Consider the State Legislature
Arizona State Senate
16 Republicans
14 Democrats
Arizona House of Representatives
31 Republicans
29 Democrats
Consider the State Supreme Court
Arizona’s seven Justices of its Supreme Court are all Republican appointees. Three of them, James Beene, Ann Timmer, and Bill Montgomery are up for retention elections. They remain on the Court if a majority of people vote they should be retained. There is no organized effort to oppose retention of these justices.
June 3rd, 2022 Political Note #470 Kristin Mayes Arizona Attorney General
2022 General Election
Some analysts say that Arizona is becoming a blue state. You could not tell that by the actions of the state’s independent redistricting commission. Currently, Arizona has five Democratic Members of Congress. By next year, Arizona could have two Democratic Members of Congress and seven Republicans.
There are other signs that the pundits are right. Both US Senators are Democrats. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, if she is the Democratic nominee, could be elected Governor. One of the Republican candidates for Secretary of State is so extreme, if he is the nominee, we should expect that Katie Hobbs will be replaced by another Democrat – probably the current House Minority Leader Reginald Boulding. Furthermore, Democrats are inches away from controlling one or both houses of the state legislature.
The current Attorney General is running for the US Senate. He may not gain the nomination since, against Republican orthodoxy, he has acknowledged Joe Biden is legitimately President of the United States. Electing a Democrat as Attorney General – along with the Governor and the Secretary of State – would be a sign that Arizona is becoming a Democratic state.
Kris Mayes, the probable Democratic nominee, is an enormously appealing candidate. She will have to be appealing because she has raised less money for her campaign than four of the Republican candidates for the job. Perhaps a lot of Democratic money has gone to the Senate race and the Governor race. Let’s set a little aside for Kris Mayes.
After graduating from Arizona State University as its valedictorian, Kris Mayes became a journalist, reporting for the Phoenix Gazette and the Arizona Republic. She worked for seven years then took a kind of sabbatical. She went to New York and got a Master’s Degree in Public Administration from Columbia. She returned to journalism and covered the 2000 campaigns of John McCain and GW Bush. That coverage generated a book about campaign advisors.
After writing the book, Kris Mayes went to law school, graduating from Arizona State University’s Law School magna cum laude. After graduating, still a Republican, she was appointed to the five member Arizona Corporation Commission. The Commission regulates public utility companies, the incorporation of businesses and organizations, securities, and the safety of railroads and pipelines. Membership on the Commission is elected, which she was in a special election in 2004. After focusing on pipeline safety, renewable energy, and natural gas, she stepped down in 2010 because she was term limited. She led in the creation of Arizona’s Renewable Energy Standard which required utilities to generate15% of their energy from renewable resources by 2025, that 30% of energy be generated from installations not owned by the utility, including home-owner generated energy, by 2030, and that the total generation of energy be substantially below projections by 2020.
In January, 2011, Kris Mayes was appointed a law professor at Arizona State University and as the University’s Director of the Energy Policy Innovation Council and the Utility of the Future Center. Her goal was to design regulatory structures that would permit the creation of a more decentralized energy system, something that seems possible in Arizona and other parts of the Southwest and the South. She maintained a private law practice and, in June 2021, announced her candidacy as a Democrat for Attorney General. She had changed her party registration in 2019.
At a time of enormous controversy about the regulation of elections and about gun safety, Kris Mayes, as Attorney General, would want to also focus on climate crisis issues. The election issues bear on the existence of our democracy. The climate issues bear on the existence of the planet. Help Kris Mayes do her bit to save both.
Some Candidates for Attorney General and Secretary of State
Democratic Attorney General candidates
Arizona Kris Mayes (Political Note #470)
Arkansas Litigator Jesse Joe Gibson
Georgia State Senator Jen Jordan (Political Note #441)
Idaho Attorney and national health figure Steven Scanlin
Kansas Attorney Chris Mann (Political Note #425)
Michigan Incumbent Dana Nessel (Political Note #415)
Minnesota Incumbent Keith Ellison (Political Note #442)
Nevada Incumbent Aaron Ford (Political Note #360)
New Mexico County DA Raul Torrez
Ohio Ex City Counselor Jeff Crossman
Texas Attorney Rochelle Garza
Wisconsin Incumbent Josh Kaul (Political Note #367)
Secretary of State candidates
Arizona Reginald Boulding (Political Note #437)
Georgia State Rep Bee Nguyen (Political Note #409)
Michigan Incumbent Jocelyn Benson (Political Note #435)
Minnesota Incumbent Steve Simon
Nevada Attorney and Boxing Commissioner Cisco Aguilar (Political Note #436)
New Mexico Incumbent Maggie Toulouse Oliver
Ohio City Counselor Chelsea Clark
CFO/State Treasurer/Comptroller
Florida Ex State Rep Adam Hattersley (Political Note #299)
Minnesota Incumbent Julie Blaha
Lt. Governor
Texas Ex CFO and schools advocate Democrat Mike Collier
New York Incumbent Antonio Delgado (Political Note #232
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Help create a larger Democratic majority in the Senate that does not rely on the agreement of one or two Senators.
