May 16th, 2026 Len’s Political Note #812 Kristina Knickerbocker Ohio 10
2026 General Election
Kristina Knickerbocker
Democratic expectations for an overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives have been diminished by recent rulings in the US Supreme and the Virginia Supreme Court. Nevertheless, the expectation of victory continues. In election after election Democrats overperform, do much better in elections than they have in the past. .
In a State Senate special election in Michigan, where Governor Gretchen Whitmer had delayed that election for as long as she could, presumably out of a fear that a Republican win would shift the 19-18 advantage, Democrat Chadrick Green won the seat 59-39. In a Texas State Senate seat, after a neighboring State Senate seat was won by a Democrat by a 57-43 margin in a district Republicans expected to win by 60 points, the Republicans went all out to win the next special election. The Republicans won by 50 points, 75-25. But Republicans expected to win this by 70 points. A 50 point victory was still a 20 point overperformance by the Democrats.
Ohio 10 is rated R+4. A Democratic win in this district is reachable. Kristina Knickerbaocker is running against an experienced Republican Congressman. Flipping this seat will be possible, but not easy.
Begin the difficulty with Kristina Knicerbocker’s name.
Google’s AI tells me that a knickerbocker was an article of clothing worn by the Dutch in New York. Instagram is more persuasive when it says the name Knickerbocker was a Dutch surname that became a nickname for New Yorkers. it also became the nickname of the New York Knicks (or Knickerbockers) of the NBA and the name of numerous New York businesses and organizations.
Kristina Knickerbocker is not a New Yorker. She is comfortably ensconced in Ohio’s 10th Congressional District. The big town is Dayton with 140,000 people. Dayton is a touch more than an hour’s drive west south west of Columbus. If Kristina Knickerbocker has a rooting interest in a basketball team, it might be Ohio State where she got a Master’s Degree. Or she might root for the Division III Azusa Pacific Christian University Cougars. That is where she went to undergraduate school, working part-time at Nordstrom’s to pay for college and completing ROTC training — taking seven years to get her degree.
Azusa Pacific takes its evangelical Christianity seriously as well as its Four Cornerstones — Christ, Scholarship, Community, and Service. Kristina Knickerbocker is focused on the Service part of that quartet.
At Azusa Pacific and subsequently at Ohio State, Kristina Knickerbocker became a nurse and then a nurse practitioner. Assigned to the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base east of Dayton and by then a Major, she led teams that worked on improving medical care and medical readiness for the Air Force. Subsequently, she joined the 445th Aeromedical Staging Squadron implementing those plans.
Moving to the reserves, she and her husband settled in Yellow Springs. Her civilian work was as a Neuro-oncology nurse-practitioner at the Ohio State Medical Center. While doing that work, she learned enough about the American medical system to be concerned about understaffed hospitals and health insurance premiums including the price increases and the Medicaid reductions that are a result of the Trumpist Big Beautiful Bill.
She also experienced an entirely personal experience with the medical system. Complications during the pregnancy for her second child were nearly fatal. She blames doctors’ failure to listen to her own reports of what was happening. She does not point out that they were not listening to a nurse. Nor does she point out that they were not listening to a woman.
Kristina Knickerbocker is running against the incumbent Congressman Mike Turner. Previously the mayor of Dayton, he was initially elected to Congress in 2002. He keeps on winning, typically with 60% of the vote or so. Sixty-six years old, he is too young to be subject to the current efforts to target elderly members of Congress. He is an old-fashioned Republican – in ways good and bad.
In this contest, it is the Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker whose experience includes Evangelical Christianity. Mike Turner describes himself as a non-denominational Protestant. He has been a diligent supporter of Wright Patterson as the area’s financial driver. The federal government has expanded the base with his support. As mayor and in Congress, he has been an advocate of the restoration of older buildings. He has been a supporter of the United States providing financial and materiel support for Ukraine.
Mike Turner has not been a Trumper and has apparently been punished for it. Not that he has been a particular Trump opponent, either. He minimized Trump keeping classified materials at Mar-a-Lago, calling it a kind of accounting error not an issue of national security. He acknowledged that Trump’s threat to withhold aid to Ukraine unless Zelensky was willing to announce an investigation of the Bidens was “not OK.” Even though he denounced the impeachment, that was not enough for Trump and party leaders. With Trump back in the White House, Mike Turner lost his powerful position as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee.
Mike Turner has had other issues. In 2008 and 2010, the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington named him one of the most corrupt Members of Congress for his “enrichment of self, family, or friends” and for the “solicitation of gifts”. Has he reformed since then? Or has he grown more subtle?
Is there enough in his record for Katerina Knickerbocker to make a run at Mike Turner? As if he were a Member of Congress who did not have to worry about reelection, he had less than $600,000 available for campaigning at the end of the first quarter of 2026. As if she was not making a dent at all, Katerina Knickerbocker had only $30,000. She will have to raise money quickly if she is going to compete. Help her do that. DONATE. She may be part of a solid slate of candidates in Ohio, coinciding with a national shift to Democrats. She will be a part of that shift if she can raise serious funds for her campaign.
Ohio Candidates for State Office
Governor: Former State Health Director Democrat Amy Acton v multi-millionaire and Musk’s DOGE partner Vivek Ramaswamy. February and March polls had Acton leading by 1 and by 10; April polls had Ramaswamy leading by 1 and 5. Acton has raised $10 million, Ramaswamy nearly $30 million of which $25 million was his own money. Cook rates this as a Lean Republican – close enough for Amy Acton to win, especially in a generally Democratic year. DONATE to her campaign. See Len’s Political Note #724
Attorney General: Respected retired attorney and Democratic eminence gris John Kulewicz v the State Auditor Keith Fader. There are no polls, but Kalshi gives John Kulewicz z a 25% chance of winning, not bad considering this is Ohio. DONATE to his campaign. See Len’s Political Note #775
Secretary of State: Democrats have chosen State House Minority Leader Allison Russo as the nominee over Medical Doctor Brian Hambley. Allison Russo, well regarded in her role, will face one of Ohio’ Republican “musical chairs.” Term-limited State Treasurer Robert Sprague, this time around, is looking to be Secretary of State. Help Allison Russo win this election. DONATE to hercampaign.
State Supreme Court. Jennifer Brunner is a former Ohio Secretary of State and a former Appeals Court judge,. She was elected to the Supreme Court in 2020. Currently, the only Democrat on the Court, Jennifer Brunner is running for reelection. DONATE. Help her stay on the Court. See Len’s Political Note #788
State Supreme Court. Marilyn Zayas is originally a New Yorker. She is a graduate of Brooklyn Tech and the City University of New York. She came to Ohio to work as a tech specialist for Proctor & Gamble, went to law school in Ohio, opened her own practice specializing in immigration law and was elected to the Court of Appeals. Help her get elected, now, to the Ohio Supreme Court. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #788.
State Legislature: The Ohio State Senate has a supermajority of 24 Republicans to 9 Democrats. Republicans have a large majority in the House, 55 to 34. DONATE to Ohio Democrats. The State Party is making an effort to reduce the Republican majorities.
Ohio Candidates for Federal Office
US Senate: Three term US Senator Sherrod Brown is running to return to the US Senate against the former Lt. Governor who was appointed to fill JD Vance’s seat after Vance was elected Vice President. This special election is for the two remaining years in Vance’s term of office. The Republican candidate is former Lt Governor and appointed Senator Jon Husted. February and March polls showing Brown leading by 2 and 4. April polls showing Husted leading by 1, 3, and 6. Sherrod Brown is leading in the financial race, closing the first quarter of 2026 with $16.5 million to Husted’s $8.2 million. Keep Sherrod Brown leading in finances, give him the opportunity to recapture the lead in the polls and the momentum. DONATE See Len’s Political Note #750.
Ohio 01. Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman will be challenged by the winner of Tuesday’s Republican primary for a seat that the Ohio legislature redistricted to make more Republican. Landsman is leading in the financial race with $2.9 million at the end of the first quarter of 2026. None of his potential opponents had as much as $500,000 and they will have spent some of what they had during April as they compete to win the primary. DONATE to Greg Landsman’s campaign. Help him keep this seat Democratic. See Len’s Political Note #766
Ohio 09 Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur has been in the House of Representatives for decades. A member of what was once the Catholic left, she is a moderate now and has overcome redistricting intended to oust her in the past two elections and is now running in an even more Republican district. That just makes her more of an underdog, but it does not mean she will los. Her $3.1 million at the end of the first quarter of 2026 is formidable. Her likely opponent had $270,000 at the end of the quarter and will have spent funds in April toward winning the primary scheduled for Tuesday. DONATE to Marcy Kaptur. Help her keep her lead. See Len’s Political Note #718
Ohio 15 For the primary, Democrat and College Professor Don Leonard was out raised by a 4-1 margin, outspent by better than a 2-1 margin. He won the primary 53-47, defeating a former State Rep. For the general election, he was outraised by a 10-1 margin. He brings expertise and passion to this race. Don Leonard was a professor of city and regional planning at Ohio State. He was arrested during the No King’s Protest and charged with obstructing official business and violating a noise ordinance. He intends to surprise Democrats and Republicans alike in the general election and get himself elected to Congress? Don Leonard is running against incumbent Mike Carey who spent 20 years lobbying on behalf of the coal industry before getting elected to Congress in a special election in 2021. Questions are sometimes raised about Carey’s involvement in the $61 million energy related Ohio House of Representatives scandal that sent the House speaker to jail, but no one else. DONATE to Don Leonard’s campaign.
