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October 13th , 2024 Len’s Political Note #677 US Senate races in order
2024 General Election
Are you thinking about donating to Senate candidates? Good. They need the help. I have put them in order. This is the order in which I believe donations help us.
Remember the context. In the current Senate, Democrats, including independents who organized with them, have a 51-49 majority. With Joe Manchin retiring, no one expect that he will be replaced by another Democrat. Before we even begin, the Senate becomes 50-50. If all things remain the same and Kamala Harris is elected President, 50-50 is still a Democratic majority. The political world rarely remains the same from year to year.
Montana Jon Tester
Donations to Jon Tester may be the second most important donations you can make after donating to the Harris-Walz ticket. Jon Tester is the Democratic Senator most likely to lose his seat. This is a close race, but don’t believe the polls which suggest Jon Tester dropped 12 points in a month. These polls have been funded by Republicans or are polls that consistently lean Republican. Jon Tester is still a trusted Senator while Tim Sheehy is a candidate caught lying at the beginning of his campaign about being shot in combat and recently by manipulating images in an advertisement. This is, nevertheless, a close race if, for no other reason, Montana votes consistently, but not always, Republican. Jon Tester has outraised Tim Sheehy $44 million to $14 million. On June 30 (We are waiting for the September 30 reports), Jon Tester had $11 million to Sheehy’s $3 million. Outside spenders are different. They spent $13 million on behalf of Tim Sheehy and $31 million to oppose Jon Tester. Outsiders spent $3.5 million in support of Jon Tester and $31 million opposing Tim Sheehy. Help Jon Tester. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #550
Ohio Sherrod Brown
Nikki Haley wrote to Sherrod Brown’s opponent Bernie Moreno asking him if he was trying to lose the election. Moreno had minimized abortion as an issue and seemed to think the issue was relevant only for women of child bearing age. Sherrod Brown is still a favorite of Ohio workers. The polls before Moreno mis-spoke about abortion showed a virtual tie. While Sherrod Brown had raised, as of June 30, $53 million to Moreno’s $16 million and had available for spending on June 30 $11 million to Moreno’s $4.5 million, outside money is different. Outside spenders have spent $46 million supporting Moreno and $34 million more opposing Sherrod Brown. In contrast, outside spenders have spent $3.5 million supporting Sherrod Brown and $29 million opposing Bernie Moreno. We do not yet have FEC spending reports from September, the Sherrod Brown campaign has announced 3rd quarter donations (July – September) of $30 million.
Help Sherrod Brown win this election. Add to the big 3rd quarter haul. DONATE. If he and Jon Tester both win, Democrats can be confident of a Senate majority in combination with a win by Harris-Walz. See Len’s Political Note #556
Flip a Republican seat – If we can’t count on Montana and Ohio, we need a win or two elsewhere. There elsewhere are below.
Nebraska Dan Osborn
I feel like this labor leader is my own personal discovery. The pundits have caught up even if the Democratic organization are unwilling to support an independent candidate who insists he is not a Democrat. Dan Osborn has consistently scored 2 points behind or 2 points ahead in polls against the nondescript Republican incumbent Deb Fischer. She had outraised him on June 30 $6 million to $2 million; had available on June 30 $3 million to his $600,000. Outside spenders have supported Dan Osborn to the tune of $1.6 million. Others have spent $500,000 opposing him. Send some money yourself to help Dan Osborn. He may have the best chance to flip a Republican seat. Nebraska is small enough so that it does not take a lot of money to make a difference. DONATE to Dan. See Len’s Political Note #614
Texas Colin Allred
Shockingly, Congressman Colin Allred has recorded one poll in which he is leading. Still, it is a tough climb, even against incumbent Ted Cruz, famously the most disliked member of the Senate. Most late September polls find Cruz leading by low single digits. And don’t be fooled by Ted Cruz’s narrow $12 million to $10 million lead in funds available after June 30. On June 30, Cruz had raised a total of $59 million to Allred’s $38 million. Outsiders have added to the financial imbalance spending $4 million on Cruz’s behalf and $4 million more attacking Colin Allred. Outsiders have spent virtually nothing for Colin Allred or against Ted Cruz. You can help Colin Allred. He has a shot to win. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #560
Florida Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
She keeps getting closer. In late September polls, the more neutral the pollster, the closer Mucarsel-Powell is to Even with the incumbent Rick Scott. The more Republican the pollster is, the more likely Scott will be leading by 3 to 5 points. Scott cannot get Floridians to forget that he wanted to give Congress the chance to abolish social security and Medicare every five years. On July 31, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell had a slight lead $4.4 million to $3.9 million available after Scott had raised a total of $30 million and she had raised $14 million. But don’t see the money race as being close at all. Outsiders spent nearly a million to support Rick Scott and more than $4 million to tear down Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Furthermore, Scott has a personal net worth of more than $250 million. He can spend whatever he pleases on this race whenever he needs to or wants to. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell needs your help to have some resources to counter Scott. She does not have enough to offset Scott’s huge advantage. You can help her compete. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #598
Protect other vulnerable Senators. One of them may prove to be genuinely vulnerable. The problem is we don’t know which one. Here they are in order of what I see to be the most problematic to the least.
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin
Most September polls find Tammy Baldwin leading by 7 or 8 points although a recent Republican funded poll reported the lead to be 2 points. Her opponent, Eric Hovde is a California banker with a net worth of almost $200 million and Wisconsin roots which allows him to justify running for the Senate. So far, he hasn’t used his own money. On July 24, she had $6 million to his three after having raised a total of $36 million to his $17 million. She has seen a substantial $24 million from outsiders opposing Hovde and $2 million supporting her. Hovde supporters are trying. Fifteen million has been spent by outsiders against Tammy Baldwin and $5 million has been spent supporting Hovde. Remember, if Hovde wants to be Senator enough, he can spend as much as we wants to. Help Tammy Baldwin turn her lead in the polls into an election win in November. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #570
Pennsylvania Bob Casey
Bob Casey is another Democrat running against an out of towner rich guy. David McCormick is trying for the Senate a second time based on his Pennsylvania roots and the money he made running a hedge fund in Connecticut. It would be a guess to say his net worth is in the range of $250 million. In September, Bob Casey ran 7 to 9 points ahead in a majority of the polls. On June 30, both candidates had $8 million in their campaign coffers after Casey had raised a total of $32 million to McCormick’s $18 million. Outsiders have spent $46 million criticizing Bob Casey and $18 million supporting McCormick. Outsiders with a different point of view have spent $34 million opposing McCormick and $2 million supporting Casey. Help Bob Casey sustain his lead. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #581
Michigan Elissa Slotkin
Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA operative, is running for an open Democratic seat. Polls in the last half of September, excluding one funded by her opponent, give her an average of a 7.5 point lead. On July 17, she had raised a total of $24 million to her opponents $5 million and had a $8.7 to a $2.5 million dollar lead in funds available over former Congressman and lobbyist Mike Rogers who returned to Michigan from Florida to run. Outside spending has been roughly similar — $8 million in support of Elissa Slotkin, $16 million attacking Mike Rogers. For the Republican, $12.5 million supported Mike Rogers, $11 million attacked Elissa Slotkin. We do not have 3rdquarter information from the FEC yet, but the Elissa Slotkin campaign has announced July to September donations of $18 million. Help Elissa Slotkin turn her lead in the polls and substantial donations into a November victory. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #589
Arizona Ruben Gallego
Congressman Ruben Gallego, a former Marine, is running for the seat to which retiring one term Senator Kyrsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat. Polls in the last half of September, excluding one funded by the Republicans, give him an average 8.5 points lead. On July 10, Ruben Gallego had $8 million in his coffers to former Fox TV Anchor Kari Lake’s $2 million after having raised $32 million to her $17. Outside spending makes it worse for Lake with a half million having been spent to support her and $10 million opposed. In contrast, $16 million has been spent to support Ruben Gallego and $7 million has been spent to oppose him. DONATE to Ruben Gallego to keep him in the lead. See Len’s Political Note #544
Nevada Jacky Rosen
Jacky Rosen is running for her second term in the Senate. From the middle of September to the end of the month, polls find her leading by an average of 9 points. On June 30, Jacky Rosen had raised a total of $32 million to her opponents $10 million and had remaining $9 million to $3 million for former Army Captain Sam Brown, who was severely burned serving in Afghanistan. Outside spending has been even, in a way. Less than $2 million has been spent on Jacky Rosen’s behalf, but nearly $20 million has been spent opposing Sam Brown. More than $7 million has been spent supporting Sam Brown while more than $13 million has been spent opposing Jacky Rosen. DONATE to Jacky Rosen to keep her in the lead and win in November. See Len’s Political Note #564
One more Republican seat that could be flipped.
Missouri Lucas Kunce
I had hopes that former Marine and foreign policy expert Lucas Kunce could close on the execrable Republican Senator Josh Hawley who, oddly, writes books about masculinity. While one September poll shows Lucas Kunce behind by 5 points, another finds him behind by 12. Nor is there as much money in the race as we might expect. On July 17, Lucas Kunce had raised a total of $11 million to Hawley’s $22 million and had remaining $4.3 million to Hawley’s $5.7 million. There has not been much outside spending – just under one million in support of Hawley and about the same in opposition to Lucas Kunce. That’s it. With just a few weeks left, if this becomes a truly Democratic year, you could picture a surge for Lucas Kunce. You might want to DONATE to Kunce in hopes that your money could make a difference for such a surge. See Len’s Political Note #538
Two more Democratic seats to watch
Maryland Angela Alsobrooks
Although initial polls gave former popular Republican governor Larry Hogan a chance to make this a close race, polls in late September give County Executive Angela Alsobrooks double digit leads. What is more a surprisingly modest amount of money is being spent on the race. On June 30, Angela Alsobrooks had raised $12 million to Hogan’s $7 million and had available for spending $4 million to Hogan’s $3 million. No money has been spent by outsiders to oppose Angela Alsobrooks, while only $1.5 million has been spent to support Larry Hogan. Five million has been spent to oppose Larry Hogan and $350,000 has been spent to support Angela Alsobrooks. If you want to join in, you can DONATE to Angela Alsobrooks. See Len’s Political Note #643
New Mexico Martin Heinrich
Briefly, it appeared that Republican Nella Domenici, daughter of a former New Mexico Senator and a wealthy hedge fund person from Connecticut could give incumbent Democratic Senator and conservationist Martin Heinrich a contest. September polls give Martin Heinrich double digit leads. Nor has this become a big spending race. As of June 30, Martin Heinrich had almost $5 million to Dominici’s $2 million. The only outside spending has been a half million dollars in opposition to Martin Heinrich. While it is true that Dominici could spend huge amounts if she desired; she and her husband may have almost $100 million in net worth. There is no indication so far she will spend big on the race. If you want, you can DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #654.
Long shots to flip Republican seats
Tennessee Gloria Johnson
Wouldn’t it be nice if State Rep Gloria Johnson, who sided with the two Black men expelled from the Tennessee House, could give Senator Marsha Blackburn a run. Among offensive Republicans, Blackburn is in a league with Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Josh Hawley, but represents a state that is more heavily Republican. The only September poll shows Gloria Johnson behind by 20 points. On July 12, Gloria Johnson was behind Blackburn in funds available $9 million to $2 million. The race has attracted virtually no outside funding. You could DONATE to Gloria Johnson. See Len’s Note #622
North Dakota Katrina Christiansen
The same up north. It would be terrific if biological engineer professor Katrina Christiansen could give incumbent Kevin Cramer a race. She has tried for the Senate once before without success. There are no recent polls. On June 30, Cramer had $3.2 million to Katrina Christiansen’s $200,000. There is no outside funding. You could DONATE and let Katrina Chrisiansen know there are people who are with her. See Len’s Note #666.
Democrats in Safe Seats
Three of them might not have been so safe if Republicans has spent money on them.
New Jersey: Congressman Andy Kim v Ex Authority Director Curtis Bashaw: The most recent poll was in August. Andy Kim was ahead by five points. On June 30 Andy Kim had $4 million to Bashaw’s $1 million.
Minnesota: Incumbent Amy Klobuchar v former NBA Player Royce White is closer than you would expect: Four September polls have Amy Klobuchar ahead by an average of 9.5 points even though she had at $6.5 million dollar lead verses $50,000 in available funds on July 24.
Virginia: Incumbent Tim Kaine v Navy Veteran Hung Cao is closer than you would expect: Three September polls have Tim Kaine ahead by an average of 10 points. In the money race, Kaine had a $7.8 million dollar lead in available funds versus $400,000 on June 30
Safe Incumbents:
Connecticut: Incumbent Chris Murphy v former candidate Matthew Corey
Hawaii: Incumbent Mazie Hirono v Ex State Rep Bob McDermott
Massachusetts: Incumbent Elizabeth Warren v Attorney John Deaton
New York: Incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand v Businessman Mike Sapraicone
Rhode Island: Incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse v State Rep Patricia Morgan
Vermont: Incumbent Bernie Sanders v Army Veteran Gerald Malloy
Washington: Incumbent Maria Cantwell v Physician Raul Garcia
Safe Independent incumbent who votes with Democrats
Maine: Incumbent Angus King v Democrat former Maryland State official David Costello and Republican former Maine state party official Demi Kouzounas
Safe Open Democratic Seats
California; Congressman Adam Schiff v former MLB player Steve Garvey
Delaware: Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester v Corporate Executive Eric Hansen
Open Democratic Seat, but Safe Republican
West Virginia: Mayor Glenn Elliott v Governor Jim Justice
And the other Safe Republican Seats
Indiana: Psychologist Valerie McCray v Republican Congressman Jim Banks
Mississippi: Attorney Ty Pinkins v Republican Incumbent Roger Wicker
Nebraska B: Professor Preston Love Jr v Republican Incumbent Pete Ricketts
Utah: Professional Skier Caroline Gleich v Republican Congressman John Curtis
Wyoming: Union Leader Scott Morrow v Republican Incumbent John Barasso
WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO WIN
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
As we look toward November, 2024, we see the odds of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz winning the election have become better. You can improve those odds. Help with a donation. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO KAMALA HARRIS AND TIM WALZ. VOLUNTEER
