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 October 28th, 2022 Political Note #518 Democrats who will save the Republic

2022                              General Election

 KEEPING THE UNITED STATES SENATE DEMOCRATIC

 Complacency Kills Campaigns.

 Even before the sudden movement toward Republicans, Democrats were not going to be complacent.  Nor should they shrink from the task in the next two weeks because they are discouraged.  Donate to campaigns, send postcards, get out the vote.  Michael Moore says Democrats will win because of a huge increase in the number of young people voting. Other experts say, without consideration of the impact on the results, that we should expect an increase in the youth vote.

Should we, then, ignore the polls?  Not entirely.  In the last couple of weeks of the 2020 election, Republicans made surprising gains in the polls.  Few expected that gains were indicators of the large number of 2018 Democratic winners who would lose. Now we should watch to see if Republicans peaked just a little too soon.  Or if Republicans leads shrink and Democratic leads shrink – sustaining uncertainty until November 8th is over.

Here is what I can glean from the 538’s most recent projections using their elite model that considers poll results as only one factor among.  These projections are reported in terms of probability.  The polls that are listed are the most recent ones I found reported, even when funded by one of the candidates.

Protect Democratic Seats that could be flipped

  1. Nevada             Catherine Cortez Masto
    1. According to 538, she wins 48 out of 100 times.
    2. Morning Digest 10/26: BSP Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)f or Univision: Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 44, Adam Laxalt (R): 42
  2. Georgia             Raphael Warnock
    1. According to 538, he wins 50 out of 100 times
    2. Morning Digest 10/26. East Carolina University: Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 49, Herschel Walker (R): 47 (June: 47-47 tie)
  3. Arizona             Mark Kelly
    1. According to 538, he wins 74 out of 100 times
    2. Xx
  4. New Hampshire Maggie Hassan
    1. According to 538, she wins 78 out of 100 times

 

Flip Republican Seats

  1. Pennsylvania John Fetterman
    1. According to 538, he wins 60 out of 100 times
    2. Morning Digest 10/26 CBS funded poll by B+ rated YouGov poll reported on Oct 24th that Fettermen led Oz 51-49
  2. Wisconsin Mandela Barnes
    1. According to 538, he wins 24 out of 100 times
    2. Barnes funded B/C rated poll reported on Oct 11th that Barnes was leading 48-47
  3. Ohio Tim Ryan
    1. According to 538, he wins 23 out of 100 times
    2. Republican oriented polling company CygnalB+ rated poll reported on Oct 24th   that Ryan was behind Vance 44-48
  4. North Carolina Cheri Beasley
    1. According to 538, she wins 23 out of 100 times
    2. Republican funded, B+ rated Republican oriented polling company reported on Oct 22ndthat Beasley was behind Budd 43-47

If everything goes according to these projections, John Fetterman will flip a Republican seat, Catherine Cortez Masto will lose to Adam Laxalt, and the Senate will continue to have a 50-50 Democratic majority.

Give money to all eight of these candidates.

If you want to try three less probable candidates each of whom seems to have some momentum consider Utah’s independent candidate Evan McMullin (6 of 100), Iowa’s Mike Franken (3 of 100), Indiana’s Tom McDermott (3 of 100)

  

KEEPING THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MAJORITY DEMOCRATIC

Here is how I made my calculations.  The Cook Political Report projected 191 Democratic wins and 211 Republican wins. 

The Cook Political Report projected 33 toss ups.  Of those 24 are currently seats held by Democrats; 9 are seats currently held by Republicans

An examination of 538’s projection for those 33 toss up seats yields the following probabilities:

            Democrats retain 21 of the 24 seats they hold.

            Republicans retain 8 of the 9 seats they hold.

Based on these numbers, the projected result would be

Republicans. 222 Seats

Democrats.    213 Seats

Can the Democrats take 5 or more of the seats Republicans are likely to win and protect all of the seats Democrats are likely to win. 

Here are seats projected as Republican wins (including selecting from toss ups) from which Democrats have to win four seats.  This includes updated projections and the most recent poll for each contest.

  1. PA 07 Susan Wild (49)
    1. According to 538, she wins 49 times out of 100 chances
    2. Media funded B+ rated poll reported on Oct 14th that Incumbent Wild led Businesswoman Lisa Scheller 47-46
  2. OR 05 Jamie McLeod-Skinner (47)
    1. According to 538, she wins 47 times out of 100 chances
    2. Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on Sept 8th that County Service District Board Member Jamie McLeod-Skinner led former Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer 41-38 for this Open Democratic seat
  3. TX 15 Michelle Vallejo (46)
    1. According to 538, she wins 46 times out of 100 chances
    2. Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on October 14th that Vallejo and De La Cruz Hernandez were tied 45-45
  4. CA 22 Rudy Salas (43)
    1. According to 538, he wins 43 times out of 100 chances
    2. Republican oriented organization funded B- rated poll reported on August 5th that Rudy Salas led incumbent David Valadeo 39-34
  5. CA 37 Christy Smith (37)
    1. According to 538, she wins 37 times out of 100 chances
    2. Smith funded B/C rated poll reported on October 6th that Smith led 47-41
  6. AZ 02 Tom O’Halleran (35)
    1. According to 538, he wins 35 times out of 100 chances
    2. Crane (the Republican candidate) funded B/C rated poll reported on August 15th that O’Halleran was behind 44-45
  7. NJ 07 Tom Malinowski (29)
    1. According to 538, he wins 29 times out of 100 chances
    2. Malinowski funded B rated poll reported on September 26th that Malinowski and Kean were tied at 48 each.
  8. NY 01 Bridget Fleming (24)
    1. According to 538, she wins 24 times out of 100 chances
    2. There are no recent polls
  9. NC 13 Wiley Nickel (24)
    1. According to 538, he wins 24 times out of 100 chances
    2. A Conservative Foundation A rated poll reported on October 24th that Nickel led Hines 44-43
  • NY 22 Francis Conole (24)
    1. According to 538, he wins 24 times in 100 chances
    2. A media funded A rated poll reported on September 28th that former Defense Secretary security advisor and Naval Reserve Commander Francis Conole was behind Technology consultant and navy veteran Brandon Williams 40-45
  • MI 10 Carl Marlinga (23)
    1. According to 538, he wins 23 times in 100 chances
    2. A media funded B/C rated poll reported on October 6th that Marlinga was behind James 36-44
  • OH 01 Greg Landsman (20)
    1. According to 538, he wins 20 times out of 100 chances
    2. A Landsman funded B/C rated poll reported on October 16th that Landsman led the the incumbent Steve Chabot 49-46
  • CA 45 Jay Chen (20)
    1. According to 538, he wins 20 times out of 100 chances
    2. There are no recent polls.

 

Here are seats projected as Democratic wins (including selecting from toss ups) which Democrats have to protect.

  1. AK AL Mary Peltola (50)
    1. According to 538, she wins 50 times in 100 chances
    2. Anonymously funded B/C rated poll reported on Oct 22nd that Native American and Alaskan Regional Official Mary Peltola led Sara Palin among the top 4 49-26 and led  Nick Begich III in a 2 person race 55-44
  2. VA 02 Elaine Luria (52)
    1. According to 538, she wins 52 times in 100 chances
    2. University funded A/B rated poll reported on Oct 18th that Incumbent Elaine Luria and State Senator Jen Kiggans were tied 45-45
  3. TX 34 Vicente Gonazlez (52)
    1. According to 538, he wins 52 times in 100 chances
    2. Republican oriented organization funded B- poll reported on August 1st that Gonzalez led Flores 47-43
  4. RI 02 Seth Magaziner (57)
    1. According to 538, he wins 57 times out of 100 chances
    2. Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on October 24th that Magaziner was tied with Fung 48-48
  5. NY 19 Josh Riley (57)
    1. According to 538, he wins 57 times out of 100 chances
    2. Media funded A rated poll reported on September 28th that Josh Riley led Marcus Molinaro 46-41
  6. PA 17 Chris Deluzio (59)
    1. According to 538, he wins 59 times out of 100 chances.
    2. Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on September 20th that Chris Deluzio led Jeremy Shaffer 49-42

Holy cow! Would you give money to all of these candidates?  Choose who you want to back. Remember, though, Democrats need to gain a net of FIVE seats to keep the House.  And that is with no margin of error.  If you had a semi-magic wand with a high probability of working, would you stop at O’Halleran or Malinowski and hope that Democrats do not lose more than one or two of their projected winners?

KEEPING AS MANY DEMOCRATIC GOVERNORS AS POSSIBLE AND GAINING WHERE WE CAN.

Showing 538 projections and the most recent poll for candidates

Democrats in danger of being flipped

  1. Oregon Tina Kotek (50)
    1. According to 538, she wins 50 out of 100 times
    2. A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on October 22nd that Kotek was behind Drazen 40-42
  2. Nevada Steve Sisolak (48)
    1. According to 538, he wins 48 out of 100 times
    2. A university funded B/C rated poll reported on October 26th that Steve Sisolak was tied with Joe Lombardo 44-44
  3. Wisconsin Tony Evers (55)
    1. According to 538, he wins 55 out of 100 times
    2. A Progressive organization funded B rated poll reported on October 22nd that Tony Evers was behind Tim Michels 48-49
  4. Kansas Laura Kelly (61)
    1. According to 538, she wins 61 out of 100 times
    2. A media funded A- rated poll reported on September 18th that Incumbent Laura Kelly led Attorney General Derek Schmidt 45-43.

 

States where Democrats have a chance to flip a Republican governor

  1. Arizona Katie Hobbs (38)
    1. According to 538, she wins 38 out of 100 times
    2. An Insider Advantage B rated poll reported on October 25th that Secretary of State Katie Hobbs was behind former local Fox News anchor Kari Lake 43-54
  2. Georgia Stacey Abrams (10)
    1. According to 538, she wins 10 out of 100 times
    2. A Republican funded B rated poll reported on October 24th that Democratic activist Stacey Abrams was behind Incumbent Brian Kemp 45-51
    3. An anonymously funded B rated poll reported on October 17th that Democratic activist Stacey Abrams was behind incumbent Brian Kemp 41-51
  3. Oklahoma Joy Hofmeister (9)
    1. According to 538, she wins 9 out of 100 times
    2. An Amber Integrated B/C rated poll reported on October 15th that Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister led Incumbent Republican Governor Kevin Stitt 46-45

 

DOWNBALLOT RACES WHERE THE REPUBLICAN IS PARTICULARLY ODIOUS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CLOSE RACE

Secretary of State

  1. Arizona Adrian Fontes
    1. To defeat Oath Keeper Mark Finchem
    2. End Citizens United reported that in a late September poll stated that former Clerk of Maricopa County Adrian Fontes led Oath Keeper and State Rep Mark Finchem 46-44
  2. Nevada Cisco Aguilar
    1. To defeat the America First Secretary of State Coalition President Jim Marchant
    2. NBC news reported that an early October poll stated that former Athletic Commissioner Cisco Aguilar was behind the America First Secretary of State Coalition President 41-43

Attorney General

  1. Kansas Chris Mann
    1. To defeat rabid anti-immigrant former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach
    2. A September 12th poll reported that ex cop and anti-drunk driver activist is behind anti-immigrant former Secretary of State Kris Kobach by 2 points.

STATE SUPREME COURT ELECTIONS WHERE GERRYMANDERING ISSUES ARE MOST VISIBLE

  1. North Carolina Lucy Inman
    1. A media funded poll on October 4th showed Democratic Court of Appeals Judge Lucy Inman behind Republican Court of Appeals Judge Richard Dietz 32-37
  2. North Carolina Sam Ervin IV
    1. A media funded poll on October 4th showed Incumbent Associate Justice of the NC Supreme Court Sam Erving IV behind General Counsel for the North Carolina Courts Trey Allen 37-39.
  3. Ohio Teri Jamison
    1. A media funded poll found that Appeals Court Judge Teri Jamison and Supreme Court Justice Pat Fischer are tied at 40%.
  4. Ohio Marilyn Zayas
    1. A media funded poll found that Appeals Court Judge Marilyn Zayas and Supreme Court Justice Pat DeWine are tied at 40%.

In these Political Notes, I advocate supporting Democrats and try to describe who the Democratic candidates are and say at least something about the Republicans.  Today’s piece is exclusively horse race.  The polls are the most recent ones I can find (although I may have missed an Ohio poll showing that the Republican candidates for the Supreme Court are now ahead.).

I don’t know if you can support each of these Democratic candidates, but what are described her are close races that could make a difference.  I urge you to make a difference.  I will follow today’s piece with updates every few days until Election Day.