Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com  Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.  Len’s Letter #45 US Senate Candidates to donate to now.  Len’s Letter #46 US House Candidates to donate to now. Political Note #406 Jared ME #406, Political Note #428 Cynthia Axne IA 03, Political Note #375 Steven Horsford Nevada 04, Political Note #356 Susie Lee NV 03, Political Note #411 Christine Bohannan IA 02, Political Note #424 John Lira TX 23

December 15th                       2021         Len’s Letter #46

2021 for 2022                      Ten House Candidates to donate to now. Candidates are from states where redistricting was completed by December 1, 2021.

INCUMBENTS

  1. Jared Golden Incumbent Maine 02

  1. Cindy Axne Incumbent Iowa 03

  1. Steven Horsford Nevada 04

  1. Susie Lee Nevada 03

  1. Dina Titus Incumbent Nevada 01

  1. Kathy Manning Incumbent now for North Carolina 11

CHALLENGERS

  1. Tony Vargas Challenger Nebraska 02

      8. Christina Bohannan Challenger Iowa 01

      \9. Liz Mathis Challenger Iowa 02

  1. John Lira Challenger Texas 23

 

Today’s version of Len’s Letters includes candidates where redistricting is completed.  Completed provisionally, at least.   There may be court challenges which could affect districts.  (Because I was not quick enough, the opening statement is inaccurate. Since the December 1 cut off for this Letter, one additional state, Maryland has completed redistricting.  And the State Supreme Court of North Carolina has paused that state’s redistricting process.  Whatever happens as a result of the pause, it is unlikely to make things worse for Kathy Manning, so I’ve left her piece in.)

The 2022 election cycle will not be easy for Democrats.  The chaotic pullout from Afghanistan has not yet been offset by the fact that we have, in fact, withdrawn from Afghanistan.  Democratic messaging about their two great bills – the one they have passed to rebuild our roads, bridges, and water and power systems; the other they will pass to slow climate change and help families – has not yet overcome the messiness of the process, though clearer messaging is beginning to make a difference.

Donate early. Make a difference for winning elections in November 2022. Write postcards.  Volunteer.   Expand the Senate majority.  Expand the House majority.

Who should you donate to now?  Begin with defense.  Follow up with candidates who can flip Republican House seats. Focus now on districts where redistricting is completed, at least provisionally.

My recommendations are:

Incumbent Democratic Members of Congress for whom donations could make a difference:

  1. Incumbent Jared Golden https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com Maine 02.  Elected 2020 53-47. Lean R+10  Changed from R+11

Jared Golden was first elected in 2018 to this district which includes most of Maine north of its southern coast.  In our usual “first past the post” system, he would have lost.  He won that election because Maine had adopted, for the 2018 election, ranked voting.  When the votes of the rankings of the third and fourth place finishers were counted, Jared Golden came out ahead.  The Congressman he unseated, Bruce Poliquin, was never reconciled to his loss.  He didn’t run in 2020, but he is running this time because he believes Republicans have a better chance in 2022.

Jared Golden has a story.  Personable, comfortable with the help and the golfers at the golf course his dad owned, he started at the local state college but joined the army soon afterwards.  He had a bad war and came home with PTSD. While working various low wage jobs, he had a transformative experience.  A professor from Bates College, not far from the pizza joint he was working at found Jared Golden interesting.  He sent the Dean of Admissions to buy a pizza and chat.  Jared Golden applied and was admitted to Bates where he was introduced to serious learning and his fellow students were introduced to Afghanistan and Iraq. He went back to Iraq to work for a little while, had internships in DC (including with Senator Susan Collins), was elected to the Maine state legislature, and then was elected to Congress.

He remained a Democrat because his dad loved JFK.  He promised, however, never to oppose Susan Collins, and has been among the most conservative Democrats in the House.  He was one of two Democrats to vote against the first version of the American Rescue Plan of 2021, one of two Democrats to vote against one gun purchase background check bill, the only Democrat to vote against a second proposal, and the only Democrat to vote against the Build Back Better Act. He voted in 2021 to impeach Donald Trump.  Jared Golden https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com may be the only Democrat who could be elected in Maine 02.  Keep him in the House. Keep the Democratic majority.

  1. Incumbent Cindy Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com Iowa 03 Lean R+2, stayed the same.

Of the three women who were elected to Congress from Iowa in 2018, the only one who survived 2020 is Cindy Axne.  She had defeated the incumbent by 2 points and defeated him again in 2020 by the same margin.  She gave some public thought to running for the US Senate or for Governor if redistricting made her reelection impossible.

Cindy Axne is now committed to her run for reelection for this Des Moines based district .  Perhaps one day she can run for governor — out of ambition rather than as a defensive tactic.  She knows how to govern.  She spent a good part of her career working in Iowa’s Department of Administrative Services and Iowa’s Department of Management under Democratic governors.  A dominating figure also known as having sharp elbows, her force and power is partly a product of being six feet tall and a former basketball player.  Under a Republican governor, she worked in the Department of Natural Resources and was fired.

Iowa Republicans have not conceded Iowa 3 to Cindy Axne.  The Lean+2 is a Republican lean.  Cindy Axne is protecting herself and she is an incumbent, after all.  She has raised $2 million.  Entering the fall, she had $1.6 million available.  None of the three Republicans who want to oppose her have raised more than $300,000.  The front runner for the Republican nomination is a state senator who touts his air force experience and his conservative credentials. Help Cindy Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com win this election.  Getting elected to Congress and staying in Congress has become more and more expensive.  Early donations will help her stay in Congress and help us to achieve a Democratic majority.

  1. Incumbent Steve Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com Nevada 04 Lean D+5, Changed from R+1

If the description of a 5 point Democrat Lean proves to be accurate it will give Steve Horsford a tiny cushion for the very first time.  First elected in 2012 after NV 04 was created, he defeated Danny Tarkanian 50-42.  Running against a state assemblyman in 2014, he lost by 3 points.  The assemblyman lost in 2016 to a Democrat who did not run again because of a sex scandal.  Steve Horsford returned in 2018 to run against the former Republican Congressman and won this time by 8 points.  Making it twice in a row for the first time since the district was created, Steve Horsford defeated another Republican Assemblyman in 2020, this time by 5 points.

Steve Horsford was born to a 17 year old immigrant from Trinidad.  He grew up committed to education as a way to get ahead and to his mother, dependent on an addiction, who needed his help. From the age of ten, he was the head of his household.  Attending college in Reno, he returned to help his mother and did not finish until years later.  He was, however, indominable.  He worked for R&R partners which invented the phrase – “What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.” He became head of the training academy for Nevada’s most powerful union – the Culinary Workers.  That job was a great place to come from to run for the Nevada State Senate where he eventually became the Senate Majority Leader.  One of the few, but increasing number of African Americans representing predominantly white districts, he has earned public attention because of his marriage and his girlfriend.  His ex-girlfriend wrote a memoir, bringing him attention he would have preferred to avoid.  His wife had an epiphany while getting her doctorate.  She realized how much better prepared, how much more confident Black school superintendents who had attended Historically Black Universities than were those who attended integrated doctoral programs.  She teaches at Teachers College, Columbia now.

Nothing will be easy for Steve Horford https://www.stevenhorsford.com , notwithstanding the D+5 lean.  He has a jump on his eventual opponent, having raised $1.4 million, spent relatively little, and still had about $1.4 million to begin the final quarter of the year.  He’ll need more. Help him win this election; help us preserve a Democratic majority.

  1. Incumbent Susie Lee https://www.susieleeforcongress.com Nevada 03 Lean D+2 , Changed from R+5 

When Jacky Rosen ran for the US Senate, Harry Reid’s choice for a replacement in NV 03, a district that includes some of Las Vegas and beyond to Nevada’s southern point, was Susie Lee.  She was a popular philanthropist in Las Vegas.  She had demonstrated political ambitions.  Without Harry Reid’s support in 2016, she lost the primary. Since then, she has been fortunate in her opponents.  In 2018, she ran against Danny Tarkanian, the wealthy son of the nationally famous former UNLV basketball coach.  Susie Lee won by three points.  In 2020, her opponent was a professional wrestler.  She won by three points again even though her husband’s receipt of two PPP loans caused something of a scandal.

One of eight children in Canton, Ohio, she came to Las Vegas as a water specialist to work for the mayor.  She could become a philanthropist by virtue of marrying Dan Lee who is now the CEO of Full House Resorts, Inc.  She focused on helping the homeless and finding ways to keep kids in school.  In Congress, she has been a moderate, a member of the Problem Solvers Caucus which attempts the apparently hopeless cause of getting Republicans and Democrats to work together to solve problems. She is making her way in Congress, having joined the powerful Appropriation Committee.

Susie Lee https://www.susieleeforcongress.com is the kind of Democrat we need in a district that has only a slight Democratic lean.  As Democrats recover from their popular decline during the summer of 2021, she will still need ever vote she can get.  To get those votes, she’ll need every dollar she can raise.  Married to a wealthy man, raising money may prove to be a little easier for her than it would be for others, but it won’t be easy.  She has already raised $1.8 Million.  Her leading opponent raised $650,000.  Help her keep that lead.

  1. Incumbent Dina Titus https://www.dinatitus.com Nevada 01 Lean D+4 Changed from D+22

 Dina Titus faces an entirely new kind of challenge.  Instead of having an entirely urban district, Nevada 01 now extends south east.  With a D+22 Lean, she hasn’t been on a list of endangered members of Congress for a long time.  She was first elected to Congress in 2008 defeating an incumbent Republican in Nevada 03, currently Democrat Susie Lee’s seat.  In 2010, she lost to Republican Joe Heck by less than a point.  In 2012, she was elected overwhelmingly to Congress from NV 01.  She has continued to win by substantial margins.  Her circumstances have changed.  2022 will be more like 2010 when the race was extremely close.

Dina Titus is prepared for her changed district.  She was identified as a moderate Democrat ten years ago when she reluctantly supported the Affordable Care Act while at the same time supported off shore drilling.  By 2017, she was seen as progressive, as supporting gay rights, supporting legalization of marijuana use. She has been her own person and even got on the bad side of Harry Reid. She never graduated from her Georgia high school.  Instead, she attended a summer program at William and Mary and just continued on to get her BA. She got a Master’s degree close to home at the University of Georgia and a PhD from Florida State. She came to Nevada as an academic and became a politician. She has been teaching US and Nevada history at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

At 71 years old, Dina Titus https://www.dinatitus.com has to be up for a tough primary and an election in a revised district that is 18 points less Democratic than it used to be.  At the end of September, she had $600,000 available for spending.  Her primary opponent on her left had less than $50,000.  No Republicans had raised any money at all.  Perhaps the Republicans won’t notice this NV 01 has become a swing district. In case that is wishful thinking, donate to Dina Titus.  Help her keep this seat Democratic.

      6.  Incumbent Kathy Manning https://kathymanningfornc.com North Carolina 11 Lean R+16.

Do not underestimate Kathy Manning. Her first try at getting elected to Congress was in 2018.  That year, Trump carried NC 13 with 53% of the vote. She held the Republican incumbent, Ted Budd, now Trump’s choice for the US Senate, to 51%.  In 2020, the North Carolina Supreme court brokered a redistricting deal, creating two additional Democratic leaning congressional districts.  The new NC 06 included Kathy Manning’s home of Greensboro.  Hours before the new map was issued, she announced her intention to run.  Not long after the new map was issued, the Republican incumbent, Mark Walker who is also now running for the US Senate, announced he would not run for Congress.  Kathy Manning was elected easily.

Before running for Congress, Kathy Manning was the first woman to head the Jewish Federations of North America.  She was elected after having created a national organization of Jewish Day Schools. Jewish Federations support local Jewish communal organizations. You could say that this work prepared Kathy Manning for political fundraising.  Born and raised in Detroit, she went to Harvard, then returned to the University of Michigan where she met her husband and got a law degree.  She followed him to his home town, Greensboro, North Carolina where he thrived in his family chemical business and his additional businesses as she thrived as a national Jewish figure and as a philanthropist.

How can Kathy Manning hope to win election in NC 11 an R+16 environment running against another incumbent Member of Congress?  She may not have to.  The North Carolina Supreme Court may intervene again.  Four districts are on North Carolina’s northern border. Going from east to west, NC 11 is the third of those four and includes Greensboro, Kathy Manning’s home base. Even without Court intervention, drawing on her particular interest in health care and her focus on foreign policy, she can and will make an effective case against the other incumbent placed into the new NC 11 with her.  Seventy-eight years ago Virginia Foxx was born Virginia Palmieri in The Bronx.  In 2005, her first year in Congress, she was one of 11Republicans who voted against providing federal help to the victims of Hurricane Katrina. In 2008, she worked to prevent spending funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program.  While opposing a hate crimes bill she insisted that Matthew Shepard’s murder was a robbery and not a hate crime.  She opposed the Affordable Care Act, suggesting it “put seniors in a position of being put to death by their government.” She is one of the Republicans who has been fined for evading metal detectors. She is someone we should defeat.  Donate to Kathy Manning’s campaign https://kathymanningfornc.com.  The more donations she receives early, the more she will be able to tap her existing donor network and she will find it easier to spend more of her own money.

Challengers.  Candidates who could flip a Republican seat.  We cannot play defense alone.

        7. Challenger State Senator Tony Vargas https://www.vargasfornebraska.com Nebraska 02 Lean R+2

Redistricting left Nebraska 02 with a slightly greater Republican lean than its previous status which was no lean at all.  There was a little fiddling with the district.  If the old configuration had remained, it would have had a D+ lean.  Localities were swapped, making it slightly harder to elect a Democrat.  It had already been hard to elect a Democrat.  Since 2012, a Democrat has won once.  In 2014, Democrat Brad Ashford ousted the Republican incumbent.  In 2016, Republican Don Bacon ousted Brad Ashford.

 Democrats have tried three solutions.  A conservative Democrat like Brad Ashford.  A potential member of the squad, Kara Eastman, came astonishingly close in 2018.  Her 2020 candidacy was severely damaged when Brad Ashford’s wife endorsed the Republican.  For 2022, we have someone different —  the New York City born son of Peruvian immigrants, Tony Vargas.  A former high school teacher and school board member, he is the second Latino member ever elected to the unicameral Nebraska state senate.

Tony Vargas has thought seriously about issues that are important to his district and the country.  Though he would be representing Nebraska, a rural state, NE 02 includes Omaha, a city with a population of nearly a half million people.  His focus has been on health, including mental health and on bipartisan government. He would give local health departments greater authority to combat infectious disease, and points out that during the first five months of the pandemic 8% or more of those with Covid-19 were linked to meatpacking workers.  He considers the condition of Nebraskans in prisons and deplores, for instance, the effect of solitary confinement on prisoners’ mental health.  In the Nebraska Unicameral legislature, he has worked at maintaining a more than civil relationship with the majority Republicans.

Tony Vargas describes himself as an unlikely candidate.  Because of that, perhaps, he is preparing himself.  He has a primary opponent, Alisha Shelton, who was just endorsed by Emily’s List.  Tony Vargas’s $400,000 raised is four times as much as what Shelton raised at the end of September.  It is not enough.  The incumbent raised one million dollars and still had half of that available at the end of September.  Donate to Tony Vargas https://www.vargasfornebraska.com . He can make this a contest. This district is due for a surprise victory by a Democrat.

        8.  Challenger Christina Bohannan https://bohannanforcongress.com Iowa 01 Lean R+4. That +4 Lean?

In the 2020 election, Republican Marionette Miller-Meeks defeated the one term Democratic incumbent Rita Hart by 6 votes.  Hart may have actually won by 22.  While the defeated President of the United States was claiming the election was stolen, Congressional Democrats were not about overrule local election officials and seat a Democrat.  That election was in Iowa 02, the southeastern Iowa district.  Now the southeastern Iowa district is Iowa 01.  Miller-Meeks switched her candidacy after redistricting was completed.  So did Christina Bohannan.

Christina Bohannan has a story.  She grew up poor, in a trailer in Florida.  Her father was a construction worker who couldn’t work because of his emphysema. Because he couldn’t work and, therefore, pay for insurance, he lost his health insurance.  Christina Bohannan has an exquisite understanding of the need for the Affordable Care Act and for improvements that are necessary after Republicans attempted to dismantle it.

Education is behind Christina Bohannan’s success.  She credits teachers for helping her aim for college; the University of Florida for her ability to get an engineering degree and then a law degree while picking oranges to help pay for her schooling.  She became a specialist in intellectual property law and got a job teaching at the University of Iowa’s Law School.  She earned the regard of her colleagues and became a member of the faculty senate.  She sought the regard of the local electorate and ousted a 20 year state rep in a primary.  In the legislature, she earned a reputation for tough and critical analysis of proposed bills and proposed constitutional amendments.

Christina Bohannan’s clarity of thinking comes through consistently as she opposes Miller-Meeks whose occasional claims to moderation are belied by her opposition to masking requirements, her opposition to same sex marriage, and her consistent following of the extreme Republican majority in the House. Money counts, though. Miller Meeks had $1.5 million dollars in hand as she entered October, 2021; Christine Bohannan https://bohannanforcongress.com had $250,000.  She’ll need to raise a lot more money.  Help her now.  Donate to her campaign.

        9. Challenger Liz Mathis https://lizmathis.com Iowa 02. Lean R+6. 

Liz Mathis is running against first term Member of Congress Ashley Hinson.  In 2020, Hinson may have done one term Member of Congress Abby Finkenauer a favor – defeating her 51-49.  If Finkenauer defeats Chuck Grassley for the US Senate in 2022, she will have taken a huge step up.  Oddly, the Iowa legislature renumbered the districts.  Cedar Rapids is still the city in the congressional district in northeastern Iowa.  But the district is now Iowa 02, instead of Iowa 01.

 Liz Mathis is a state senator, having won a special election that temporarily kept the Democrats in control of the Iowa Senate. She grew up on a farm. Her dad farmed, sold seed corn, and served on the local school board.   Her mom taught school and was the nurse for a local doctor.  Liz Mathis studied journalism in college, met her husband who now runs an advertising agency, worked at a radio station and then, for thirteen years, beginning at age 23, got the job she wanted.  She became co-anchor of the local news in one station and then, for nine years, anchor for the local news at KCRG-TV in Cedar Rapids.  In 2007, she left journalism to be in charge of community relations for social service agencies.  In 2011, she was elected to the state senate.

In the state senate, she was a moderate Democrat – a supporter of Medicaid and social service programs, but also an advocate for reduced property taxes and an opponent of increased gasoline taxes.  You could make a 1950s move about her life – farm girl to television anchor to politician.  Except in the 1950s, not so many women became television anchors or politicians in Iowa or elsewhere in America. In the current political climate, you have to raise money.  Liz Mathis has done a pretty good job of that.  She raised $640,000 and, relying on her name recognition and her natural caution, she has only spent $100,000 of it.  It is a challenge, though.  At the end of September, the time of the last report, the incumbent had raised $2.4 million and had already spent a million of that to persuade the district she should remain in Congress.  Liz Mathis https://lizmathis.com needs resources to compete.  Donate.

        10.  Challenger John Lira https://liraforcongress.com Texas 23 Lean R+13

John Lira has not signed up for a fair fight. It is the closest chance the Democrats have, however, to flip a Republican seat in Texas. Prior to redistricting, Republicans have won this seat consistently.  But those wins were close.  2014 by 2 points, 2016 by 1.3 points, 2018 by 1.5 points, 2020 by 4 points. Republicans have added 8 points to what had been an R+5 district.

 John Lira is a Mexican American local from San Antonio.  The one term incumbent, Tony Gonzales, a Navy vet who got his college degrees online while in the service, avoids talk about his family origin. John Lira had two combat tours as a Marine in Iraq serving as an intelligence analyst.  He had joined the service affected by his uncle’s death in the Oklahoma City bombing.  He left the service for education (BA Texas, MA Carnegie Mellon) and to work in Washington where he became an expert in and an advocate for small business.

This overwhelmingly Mexican American district last elected a Mexican American Representative in 2012, the one term Pete Gallego.  He was defeated by a Republican African American who, in turn, twice defeated a Democratic Filipina-American.  John Lira can make a case for himself.  He raised $200,000 to compete with Gonzales’s $1.6 million.  But he spent most of his original bundle getting people in the district familiar with his name.  He’ll need a lot of money to make a dent in the $1.1 million his opponent still has. In his fund raising emails, he has the very best subject line I’ve seen: Accompanied by a small picture of a wrapped gift, the line says: Give the gift of a Democratic majority. Donate. Make an inroad into Texas. (294)

Do what you can to help these Democrats win.  Because of redistricting, keeping the House Democratic is a very hard job.  Help these candidates.

 The states which have, except for lawsuits, completed redistricting and those which have not:

Redistricting Completed Redistricting not completed
Alabama Arizona
Alaska Arkansas
Colorado California
Delaware Connecticut
Idaho Florida
Illinois Georgia
Indiana Hawaii
Iowa Kansas
Maine Kentucky
Massachusetts Louisiana
Montana Maryland
Nebraska Michigan
Nevada Minnesota
North Carolina Mississippi
North Dakota Missouri
Ohio New Hampshire
Oklahoma New Jersey
Oregon New Mexico
South Dakota New York
Texas Pennsylvania
Utah Rhode Island
Vermont South Carolina
West Virginia Tennessee
Wyoming Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin

 

And now Maryland in this column.