You are worried about Joe Biden’s lead? You think maybe choosing Kamala Harris wasn’t your perfect choice? Joe would carry California without Kamala. You remember that Hillary had a lead in August of 2016. Hillary led 45-32 in mid-August. And then it disappeared. Democrats want you to be worried. Complacency kills campaigns.
In 1988, Mike Dukakis had a 17 point lead at the end of July. Republican criticism of Dukakis was withering. Dukakis did not really respond and did not campaign much in August. By August 11, Dukakis’s lead was 7 points. By August 24, the lead had disappeared. Bush was ahead by 4. Democrats want you to be worried. Complacency kills campaigns.
John Kerry never had the kind of lead that Hillary had or Dukakis had or Joe Biden has. In early August, he was ahead by 2. Criticism of him was withering. He did not really respond to criticism of his military service. By early September, Kerry was behind by 12. He did come back. Later in September, they were tied in the polls. He never came back enough, though. Democrats want you to be worried. Complacency kills campaigns.
Joe Biden’s campaign and lead looks different from Hillary Clinton. He has some advantages. Hillary Clinton, even with her lead, was much farther from 50 points. There are no third party candidates as there were in her campaign. There are fewer undecided voters than there were in her campaign. Still. Democrats want you to be worried. Complacency kills campaigns.
Maybe Joe Biden’s campaign is more like Mike Dukakis’s. Joe Biden is both responding to attacks from the Trump campaign and attacking Trump’s record. If anything, Kamala Harris is fulfilling the traditional Vice Presidential role and attacking even more vigorously. Mike Dukakis’s campaign did not do either with authority. Democrats want you to be worried. Complacency kills camp
Dukakis’s campaign hunkered down. I remember Dukakis campaigning in Western Massachusetts in August. What was the point of that? With Covid-19 rampant, everyone is hunkered down. Trump’s Tulsa rally was poorly attended; he had to cancel his rally in New Hampshire. The Democratic convention, though virtual will have some power. Bernie will speak. Republican John Kasich will speak. Michelle Obama will speak. Nevertheless, Democrats want you to be worried. Complacency kills campaigns.
In the Dukakis campaign, George HW Bush defined Mike Dukakis. What’s more, Mike Dukakis made errors. His “military” ad – getting in and out of a tank left him looking silly wearing a helmet. Joe Biden, showing off his physical ability riding a bicycle, decided against wearing a helmet. Trump is having difficulty defining Joe Biden as a radical. After all, he is white, Roman Catholic, and criticized by some Democrats as too middle of the road. Trump is having difficulty defining Kamala Harris as radical. After all, as a prosecutor, she was criticized for being too tough. Nevertheless, Democrats want you to be worried. I want you to be worried. Complacency kills campaigns. Give money to the Biden-Harris campaign.
The key is to hold onto that August lead. Earlier in the summer, Joe Biden was up by ten points or more. Now, he seems to be up by about 8 points. Is this a sign of danger? Will the ticket slip some more? Can Biden and Harris expand their lead? Democrats want you to be worried. I want you to be worried. Complacency kills campaigns. Give money to the Biden-Harris campaign.