Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website:
August 11th, 2023 Political Note #581 Bob Casey, Jr. US Senate Pennsylvania
2024 General Election
More than a few American sons have followed in their father’s political footsteps. John Quincy Adams followed John Adams; George W Bush and George HW Bush are the other presidential example. Andrew Cuomo followed in the footsteps of his father Mario as Governor of New York. Al Gore Jr followed in his father’s footsteps as the US Senator from Tennessee. Robert Menendez Sr. seems to be grooming his son Robert Menendez Jr to eventually replace him as Senator from New Jersey. We’ll see how that works out.
Bob Casey Jr, the US Senator from Pennsylvania, did not exactly follow in his father’s footstep. Bob Casey Sr was a Pennsylvania politician who was elected Governor. Consider the extent to which Bob Casey Jr. followed his dad. Where he departed is a measure of the changing views of, at least, some Irish Catholic families and politicians.
Bob Casey, Sr. Bob Casey Jr.
| Born in Queens, NY to a coal mining family whose dad had begun in the mines at age 10 and had left Scranton to better himself by attending Fordham Law School | Born in Scranton, one of eight children and the oldest son of a politically ambitious father who had his own law practice in Scranton. |
| Growing up in Scranton, Bob Casey Sr attended Scranton Prep, rejected a contract offer with the Phillies to play baseball, and went to Holy Cross on a basketball scholarship. He played for a year on a pretty good Crusader team that included Bob Cousy. | Bob Casey Jr attended Scranton Prep where he played basketball and Holy Cross where he did not. In the early 1980s, Holy Cross was not so formidable a basketball team as it had been in the early 1950s. |
| Bob Casey Sr went to George Washington University Law School in DC, worked for a large Washington law firm, then went home to Scranton to be a sole practitioner. | Bob Casey Jr spent the year after college in the Jesuit Volunteer Corps teaching 5thgrade in Philadelphia and coaching middle school basketball. He, too, went to Washington for law school, but to Catholic University after which he went back to Scranton to practice law. |
| Bob Casey Sr’s first elective office was to the State Senate. He did not stay long. He ran for governor with the support of the Democratic party leadership, but lost to the wealthy insurgent Milton Shapp who ran on a slogan “the man against the machine.” Shapp lost the general, but was elected governor the next time around. | |
| More conservative than Shapp, Bob Casey Sr, nevertheless, rejected Republican offers to run for governor as a Republican. Bob Casey Sr ran a successful state wide race for Auditor General and was thoroughly successful in the role. The first Pennsylvania Auditor General to hire public accountants, he investigated many state contracts. He fought with Governor Shapp over the state pension system and some of Shapp’s pet projects including a Pocono Art Center. | Bob Casey Jr had more state-wide name recognition than Bob Sr. Bob Casey Jr’sfirst run for elective office was for Auditor General. He was elected and served for two terms. He described his time in the role as making government accountable and responsive to the people of Pennsylvania, making nursing homes safer and child care more affordable. Bob Casey Jr pressed for effective implementation of Megan’s Law, ensuring that sex offenders were properly registered. |
| Pennsylvania has a lot of people named Robert Casey. When Bob Casey Sr termed out as Auditor General, he declined to run for State Treasurer. Other Caseys popped up. One was elected Auditor General. Another got the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor, but lost the general. Another Casey ran for Congress, another for the State Senate. Still another was defeated for State Treasurer by a Republican running with a slogan “Casey isn’t Casey.” | In 2002, Bob Casey Jr ran for Governor. Similar to his father’s campaign against Milton Schapp, he lost in the primary to Ed Rendell, the Mayor of Philadelphia. Bob Casey Jr had the support of organized labor, but he did not run the stronger campaign. Rendell argued he was the more experienced administrator, having run Philadelphia successfully. Rendell won the city and its surrounding suburbs and exurbs and won the general election. |
| Bob Casey Sr ran for governor in 1986 campaigning as “the real Bob Casey.” He hired two young professional strategists – James Carville and Paul Begala, both of whom eventually advised Bill Clinton. Carville’s advertisement depicting Lt. Governor Bill Scranton, a devotee of transcendental meditation, as a hippie was credited by many with winning the election. | Termed out as Auditor General in 2004, Bob Casey Jr ran for State Treasurer. He served for only two years. Preparing for 2006, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer from nearby New York state urged Bob Casey Jr to run for the Senate in 2006; to oppose two-term Rick Santorum who was an extremist among Republicans.
Bob Casey Jr was endorsed by the state’s Democratic leaders, including Ed Rendell. Opposition in the primary by less well known and less socially conservative Democrats went nowhere. Bob Casey Jrwon the general election with 59% of the vote. |
| Bob Casey Sr, as Governor of Pennsylvania, became the leading anti-abortion Democrat in the country. In Pennsylvania, he advocated for and succeeded in passing legislation that required a 24-hour waiting period between seeking an abortion and having one, required parents of minors seeking an abortion to be notified, required spouses to be notified that an abortion was sought (which was overturned by the US Supreme Court) and prohibited what it called a partial-birth abortion procedure except in cases of risk to the life of the mother.
Bob Casey Sr sought an opportunity to speak at the 1992 Presidential convention with the intention of creating a conversation about abortion. That conversation was exactly what the Democrats did not want to happen. Bob Casey Sr was not given a time slot to speak and complained about being censored. Other anti-abortion Democrats were given the opportunity to speak at the convention, but none spoke about abortion. |
In 2006, Bob Casey Jr entered the Senate as an opponent of abortion, an advocate for overturning Roe v Wade, and an opponent of embryonic stem cell research. During the campaign in 2006, he said he advocated support for women seeking help with unplanned pregnancies and that he was always a supporter of access to contraception, seeing it as a way to minimize the need for abortions.
By 2010, abortion opponents grew impatient with his effort to find a compromise rather than an outright prohibition of government funds being used for abortion services. In 2011, Bob Casey Jr voted against defunding Planned Parenthood and supported the confirmation of a controversial pro-choice appeals court judge. By 2017, Bob Casey Jr voted against prohibiting the use of foreign aid for organizations the provide or promote abortions and voted against the appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. In 2018 he voted to support abortions prior to 20 weeks of pregnancy. By 2022, he had completed the transformation of his thinking and supported national legislation confirming the right to an abortion. |
| Bob Casey Sr became more consistent in his “pro-life” position as he moved away from the death penalty. In 1992, he had insisted that he supported the death penalty. Notwithstanding that support, Bob Casey Sr dissolved a death warrant signed by his predecessor days after he entered office in 1987. During his tenure, he refused to sign 21 death warrants that had been sent to him. The only two executions he oversaw were a result of a court case that ruled the Governor did not have the authority to reject death warrants he received. | Bob Casey Jr was a reliably moderate to progressive Democrat on every other issue. He sought to reduce income inequality, opposed school vouchers, supported the Affordable Care Act as well as paths to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, supported same sex marriage after previously supporting civil unions, and saw the dangers of climate change as early as his 2006 campaign for the Senate. After the Sandy Hook massacre, he became an advocate of various gun safety proposals. |
We do not yet know who Bob Casey Jr will be facing in November, 2024. Even the Republican establishment’s preferred businessman has not yet declared his candidacy. Recently, his fellow Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman expressed confidence about where Bob Casey Jr stands with the voters. Nevertheless, Bob Casey Jr has been understood as and should be considered as among the vulnerable Democratic Senators. Remember: Complacency Kills Campaigns.
If Bob Casey Jr is to be reelected, he will need your help and your money. After raising more than $11 million, he has almost $6 million still available. Contribute to his campaign. The other vulnerable Senators have the same need. Contribute to them as well.
DEMOCRATS TO HELP IN ORDER TO KEEP A DEMOCRATIC SENATE.
This is list is too long. You might not read all the way through, let alone give money to all those on this list. But try. Please.
The Vulnerable Democratic Senators Up for Election in 2024.
Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin is seeking her third term in the Senate. A gay woman and an activist from the time she returned home to Madison from Smith College, she served in the state legislature, and the House of Representatives before she ran for the Senate. Len’s List of possible Republican candidates has ten names on it. Not one has announced his or her candidacy. Tammy Baldwin reports a significant amount of money available for the campaign — $5.5 million. Len’s Political Note #570
Sherrod Brown of Ohio is seeking his fourth term in the Senate. Son of a doctor, graduate of Yale, law degree from Ohio State, with the help of a gravelly voice, he has become a working-class icon. He earned more regard in Ohio when he refused to run for President in 2020. His opponents so far include two extremely rich guys and Ohio’s Secretary of State. Sharrod Brown has been preparing himself and has $8.7 Million. The two rich guys, each of whom can obtain much more, have $3.9 million and $1.5 million available. Len’s Political Note #556
Jacky Rosen of Nevada is seeking her second term in the Senate. Not a politician, she was President of a synagogue not far from where Harry Reid lived. Impressed with her capacity to listen and relate to people, Reid persuaded her to run for Congress and, after she was elected, to run for the Senate. Her opponents so far are a former army captain from an extremely wealthy family and an extremist election denier. She has been preparing herself for the election and has $7.5 million available to spend. No one else has as much as $50,000 to spend. Len’s Political Note #564
Jon Tester of Montana is seeking his fourth term in the Senate. The only active farmer in the Senate he is conscious of and makes sure that others are conscious of his having lost three fingers as a child while working in his father’s farm-butcher shop. In a way that others have not, he has been able to be a moderate Democrat without alienating other Democrats. He has been preparing himself for the election and right now has $10.5 million available. No one else has more than $10,000. Len’s Political Note #550
The most vulnerable Democratic Senator is another story
Joe Manchin of West Virginia has been the crucial Democratic vote in a Senate with a 50 person majority. Along with Kyrsten Sinema, the two of them are now crucial votes in a Senate where Democrats have a 51 person majority. That Joe Manchin disagrees with most Democrats on some important issues is crucial for his reelection in West Virginia.
We do not know whether Joe Manchin will run for reelection to the Senate. We really want him to run, for two reasons. He is much more appealing than whichever Republican might otherwise represent West Virginia. If he runs for President on a Third-Party ticket, he could do real damage to Joe Biden’s candidacy.
Should you give Joe Manchin money? You decide. I will give him money when he announces he is running for the Senate. The idea that he would use my money to run for President against Joe Biden is more than I can bear. Besides, Joe Manchin has $10.8 Million available to spend. The Republican opponent with the most money available has $1.5 Million.
Two Democratic Candidates defending Democratic Senate Seats
Ruben Gallego of Arizona has been a progressive Member of Congress from a solidly blue district. He will be the Democratic nominee. Of Len’s List of ten possible Republican candidates he might face, only one has announced – a county sheriff. The current Senator from Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema, left the Democratic Party during this term. She has not announced whether or not she will run again as an Independent. If she does, the race will be difficult to predict. And if she does run, she will have a lot of money. Right now, she has $10.7 million available, Ruben Gallego has $3.8 million, and no Republican has more than $350,000. Ruben Gallego needs your help. Len’s Political Note #544
Elissa Slotkin of Michigan is the favorite for the Democratic nomination. The primary, however, is not until August 6 – 2024. Before she ran for Congress, she worked for the CIA. Had she not joined the CIA after 9/11, she might have gone into the family meat business. The family business sold, among other meat products, hot dogs at Detroit Tigers baseball games. So far, a school board president, a former State Rep, and an actor are also in the Democratic Primary. Of the more than twenty possibilities on Len’s List of possible Republican candidates, only one has announced – a member of the state Board of Education. Elaine Slotkin has available $3.7 million. No one else has raised a significant amount of money. Don’t assume she has enough money. If a strong Republican emerges, this race will be expensive.
Democratic Candidates who could upset a Republican Senator
Colin Allred of Texas is running against the execrable Republican Incumbent Ted Cruz. Former professional football player, civil rights attorney, and moderate Democratic Congressman, Colin Allred has positioned himself so that he may be the one who finally catches a Texas shift from red to purple. He does have a primary opponent, the State Senator from Uvalde who is an advocate for gun safety. Help Colin Allred defeat Cruz. Colin Allred has a little more money available than Ted Cruz. He has $5.7 Million available to Cruz’ $4.8 Million. Those millions may seem like a lot of money, but Texas is a big state. Len’s Political Note #560
Lucas Kunce of Missouri is running against the faux super masculine Republican Incumbent Josh Hawley. Lucas Kunce is a blue-collar guy who was valedictorian of his high school, went to Yale and the University of Missouri Law School, then joined the Marines. He was with the Judge Advocate Court, then he was the Negotiations Officer for the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, negotiating about arms control with the Russians. When he returned home, he blamed the devastation of his home town on large corporations, became an anti-corporate activist, and ran for the Senate, losing in the primary to an extremely wealthy opponent. So far, a county prosecutor, a state senator, and a police review board member are also in the Democratic Primary. Hawley already has $4.5 million available to spend; Lucas Kunce has $1.2 million. No one else has raised a significant amount of money. Len’s Political Note #538
Two more Pennsylvania Stories
Electing Dan MCaffrey to Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court in November will keep a 5-2 majority on the Court which is way better than the 4-3 Democratic majority that would be the result of a Republican win. State Supreme Courts can be the difference on access to abortion and what Congressional and state legislative districts look like. Give Dan McCaffrey some support, too. Len’s Political Note #571
Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives now stands at 101 Democrats; 101 Republicans. The House has 203 districts and one vacancy. Urban Development Authority Board Member and the Director of Workforce Strategies for Innovate PGH Lindsay Powell is the Democratic nominee for this relatively safe Democratic District. Help make sure she defeats Republican Realtor Erin Connolly Autenreith. The special election is on September 21. Help her keep House District 21 and Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives Blue.
One more Northeastern State – New Hampshire
New Hampshire’s House of Representatives now stands at 199 Republicans, 196 Democrats, and 2 Independents. The three vacancies in the House will be filled on September 19. Two of those vacancies are in overwhelmingly Democratic districts. In 2022, Democrat Hal Rafter lost by 25 votes in Rockingham 1. He is running against an extremist opponent of witchcraft who defeated the establishment Republican in the primary. If Democrats can win all three districts, New Hampshire’s House of Representatives will be 199 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 2 Democrats. With a body of 400 members, a lot depends on who shows up on any given day. It would be progress if there were199 Democrats who could show up regularly for the New Hampshire House of Representatives.
