The year did not begin well. Nancy Pelosi has been raising money saying Democratic margins are down in special elections. If the trend continues, Democrats could lose the House in 2020. Democrats actually lost state legislative seats in Minnesota, Connecticut, and Kentucky earlier in 2019.
March and April have been better. Democrats flipped a seat in Pennsylvania, held seats in Texas, Mississippi, Connecticut, and Maine they could have lost. Patterns resembling 2017 are beginning to appear. Democrats lost, but outperformed presidential elections in state legislative races in Tennessee and South Carolina.
Is Democratic over performing an emerging pattern? Keep watching and keep helping. Democratic donors create a Democratic wave. As Nancy Pelosi reminds people in her letters, Republicans will spend big money in 2020; they are spending big money now. Focus on special elections and states with general elections in 2019. Virginia is one. Its legislature is a big prize. Democrats are two seats away in both the House of Delegates and the state Senate.