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January 19, 2023 Political Note #533 Andy Beshear Governor Kentucky
2023 General Election
Governor Andy Beshear
Like all States Kentucky has two Senators and one Governor. That would remain the same for Kentucky even if my plan for reforming the Senate were adopted. (See Len’s Letter #59). Kentucky last elected a Senator in 2022. Before that, in 2020. In Kentucky, Governors are elected the year before Presidential years, so there is a Gubernatorial election in 2023.
Kentucky is not a great place for national Democrats. Republicans win Senate races.
Mitch McConnell is one of Kentucky’s Senators. The Minority Leader of the Republicans, he is the principal legislative guardian of the power of national and international corporations. He has been winning elections for a while.
- In 2020, he defeated military veteran Amy McGrath 58-38.
- In 2014, he defeated Kentucky Secretary of State Allison Lundergan Grimes 56-41
- In 2008, he defeated Businessman Bruce Lunsford 53-47
- In 2002, he defeated the Vice Chair of the Council on Post-Secondary education Lois Combs Weinberg 65-36
- In 1996, he defeated Steve Beshear 56-43 – the father of the current governor, the former Lt. Governor and eventual two-term Governor of Kentucky.
- In 1990, he defeated the former Mayor of Louisville Harvey Sloane 52-48
- In 1984, McConnell, then a County Executive, defeated the incumbent Democratic Senator Walter Huddleston 49.9-49.5
Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist, is Kentucky’s other Senator. He is an idiosyncratic Libertarian Republican and son of the maverick Texas Congressman Ron Paul
- In 2022, he defeated movement leader Charles Booker 62-38
- In 2016, he defeated the former Mayor of Lexington 57-43
- In 2010, Rand Paul, then known for being a libertarian ophthalmologist and son of Ron Paul, defeated the Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway 56-44
Kentucky is a better place for Democrats interested in state matters. Democrats occasionally get elected in Kentucky as Secretary of State, as Attorney General, and as Governor. Democratic candidates for Governor get elected surprisingly often. Since 1931, Kentucky has elected only four Republican Governors – in 1943, 1967, 2003 and 2015. Each served only a single term. During that time period, 14 Democrats were elected governor. Two were elected to a second term. One of those was Steve Beshear — Andy Beshear’s father.
Sometimes local and national issues conflate. In 2022, by a 52-48 margin, Kentucky rejected a referendum which would have precluded interpreting the state constitution as permitting abortions. That referendum does not suggest Kentucky will elect a Democratic Senator any time soon. It does not even mean that the Kentucky Supreme Court will find the state constitution allows abortions. The referendum could be interpreted to suggest that Andy Beshear has a decent chance to be another Democrat elected to a second term.
Andy Beshear is among the most popular governors in the country. A Democratic governor in a Republican state? Think of him as an offset to Republican Phil Scott of Vermont or outgoing Republicans Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland. With polls in the 60% range, Andy Beshear relies on urban and suburban voters, but he sees his ability to connect with rural communities as a crucial strength. He celebrates bringing clean water to rural areas, access to health care, and improved public schools. He is seen as having been successful dealing with the pandemic. Taking the initiative with emergency powers, he imposed some mandates, but relied a lot on encouragement and advice.
Andy Beshear was first elected to a down ballot slot. In 2015, he was elected Attorney General by a 50.1-49.9 margin over State Senator Whitney Westerfield. As Attorney General, Andy Beshear made a career out of suing the maverick and unpopular Republican Governor Matthew Griswold Bevin for exceeding his authority as Governor.
- He sued Bevin successfully to prevent him from making mid-term changes in the budget without the authority of the legislature.
- He sued Bevin unsuccessfully to prevent him from reorganizing the University of Louisville’s Board of Trustees
- He sued Bevin successfully for signing a revision in teacher pensions. The state Supreme Court threw out the revisions as unconstitutional.
In 2019, Attorney General Andy Beshear won another close vote. He defeated incumbent Governor Matt Bevin 49.2-48.8. Andy Besehar was elected Governor by about 5,000 votes. (Please note – as we still deal with the fall out of Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 presidential election results, that Matt Bevin, one of the most radical and personally difficult governors in Kentucky’s political history insisted on a recanvass of the votes – which changed one single vote – and then accepted his 5,000 vote loss.)
Andy Beshear became Governor in humbling circumstances. Republicans controlled every other elected state-wide office. Republicans controlled the State Senate 30-8. Republicans controlled the State Assembly 75-25. None of the down ballot Democrats won in 2019.
Despite the narrow victory margin. Despite the overwhelmingly Republican controlled legislature, Andy Beshear has been an activist Governor:
- For dealing with Covid, he
- Declared a state of emergency on March 25, 2020 (He did not call the legislature into special session to pass laws regarding the emergency.)
- Encouraging masks (though he mandated masks in schools)
- Banning mass gatherings
- Releasing inmates from jail
- Closing or restricting indoor service in restaurants, bars, gyms, other gatherings
- In June, before the State Supreme Court could act, he lifted the restrictions.
- He reinstated a mask mandate for schools before school began in August, then rescinded the mandate as the legislature and the courts voided it.
- For dealing with overcrowded jails and other criminal issues, in addition to the Covid-related release of prisoners, he
- Restored voting rights and other civil rights to more than 180,000 former prisoners for non-violent crimes
- Signed a law giving judges discretion, replacing the mandate that they transfer juveniles 14 and older from the juvenile courts if they were to be tried for a crime involving a firearm.
- Economy
- Supported expansion of the bridge to Cincinnati (That’s the bridge Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell celebrated while Republican Members of the House of Representatives were slowly electing Kevin McCarthy Speaker.)
- Supported efforts to fund the state pension system which has the highest debt in the country
- Supported clean energy
- Supported acceptance of refugee immigrants, while allowing towns to opt out.
- Protected Medicaid expansion
- Supported legalized gambling
- Supported pay increases for teachers
- Completed an executive order allowing college athletes to be compensated for the use of their likenesses
- Declared a state of emergency on March 25, 2020 (He did not call the legislature into special session to pass laws regarding the emergency.)
The filing deadline has passed in Kentucky. A dozen Republicans have signed up to run. Among those candidates are Trump endorsee Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Kelly Craft, one of Trump’s ambassadors to the UN and wife of billionaire coal company owner Joseph Craft. With a lot of money available to her, she has already begun advertising. Officials in the running include State Auditor Mike Harmon, Agriculture commissioner Ryan Quarles, and the Mayor of the small city of Somerset.
As Governor, Andy Beshear has done a fair amount of encouraging. That is what he has had to. In Kentucky, vetoes can be overridden by a majority vote by both branches of the legislature. He has had several vetoes overridden but keeps hanging in there on issues that are difficult in Kentucky such as gay rights. Support him. The Democratic Party needs governors throughout the country – including Kentucky.
UPCOMING SPECIAL ELECTIONS
Pennsylvania Special Elections on January 31 and February 7
January 31
Pennsylvania’s 27th State Senate District
A special election is likely to temporarily reduce the number of Republicans in the State House of Representatives. The 27th Senate District runs between State College and Wilkes-Barre. It was won by the Republican candidate in 2020 by a 72-28 margin. In the Special Election, the Republican candidate is Lynda Culver, the State Rep from the 108th District. The Democrat is Patricia Lawton, a speech and language pathologist and doctoral candidate. If elected, she would focus on education and children’s issues.
February 7
Pennsylvania’s 32nd 34th, and 35th State House of Representatives
These three districts, all in the Pittsburgh area, all in heavily Democratic districts will sort out some confusion. In November, Democrats gained a majority in the Pennsylvania legislature – 102-101. These three seats became vacant, creating confusion and a lawsuit about who the House Majority Leader was in a state where the Majority Leader schedules elections. The elections are now scheduled. Favored to win are Democrats — former County Committee Director Joe McAndrew in the 32nd, attorney and former professor Abigail Salisbury in the 34th, and city Chief Financial Officer and former school board member Matthew Gergely.
The Pennsylvania House resolved who the Speaker would be with a bipartisan election of the moderate Democrat Mark Rozzi by a 115-85 vote.
February 21 and April 4 — Virginia, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin
Virginia Fourth Congressional District Special Election on February 21
Jennifer McClellan is running to replace the only current vacancy in the US Congress – Virginia’s Fourth Congressional District. A state senator representing the 9th Senate district, she is the child of a civil rights activist and a university professor. She ran Terry’s McAuliffe’s transition team when he was elected governor in 2013, is vice chair of the Virginia Democratic Party and of the legislature’s Black Caucus. She is the favorite to defeat Pastor and Navy veteran Leon Benjamin, Sr. See Len’s Political Note #527.
New Hampshire Special Election on February 21
House District 8, Rochester Ward 4
Incumbent Chuck Grassie is running because of a rarity. In November, he and former mayor Republican David Walker tied. Because New Hampshire’s House of Representatives is so large, you would not expect that a single seat would matter much. This election in February will matter. Republicans have a narrow majority – 201-198. Make it a little narrower (201-199) by helping to reelect Chuck Grassie.
Wisconsin Supreme Court Multiparty Primary on February 21 followed by a General Election on April 4
Janet Protasiewicz is running for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Her win in the February 21st primary and the April 4th General Election would flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court from 4-3 Republican to 4-3 Democrat with enormous implications for issues such as abortion and redistricting. This is an open seat because a Republican Justice retired. The election is in the spring rather than November because Wisconsin strives to limit partisanship in judicial elections. See Len’s Political Note #528
Wisconsin Primary on February 21 followed by a Special Election on April 4
Jodi Habush Sinykin is running in the special election for Wisconsin’s State Senate District 08. She is also running to prevent Republicans from having two thirds of the seats in the Wisconsin State Senate. If the current State Senator for the District were not retiring, Republicans would have 22 of the 33 State Senate seats. Some Republicans are raising the possibility of exercising their impeachment power to remove Democratic office holders because of policy differences. The conversation has not extended to judges yet. We’ll see. If Jodi Habush Sinykin is elected, those conversations will end. See Len’s Political Note #529
