Political Note #509 Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia elections

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October 1st , 2022   Political Note #509 Pennsylvania and Ohio elections

2022                          General Election

 

Ohio and Pennsylvania together have more people than Florida, but not quite as many as Texas.  Adding West Virginia does not change the statement. Pennsylvania and Ohio have a common border.  Each state has just enough of the Appalachians to affect their politics.  West Virginia can be considered to define the Appalachians.

US Senate Contests

I will not say that the US Senate will be decided in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  If, however, the Democrats flip both the Ohio Senate seat and the Pennsylvania Senate seat, it will be extremely difficult for the Republicans to win a majority in the Senate.  There is no US Senate contest in West Virginia

I do not have much new to say about Tim Ryan and John Fetterman or about their opponents, but take one more look at them.

Ohio

 

Tim Ryan

The Democratic nominee for the US Senate from Ohio is Tim Ryan (Political Note #392).  Ohio is a Republican state.  It is not quite as Republican as it seems because the Congressional districts and the state legislative districts are very much gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans.  Nevertheless, every state constitutional office is held by a Republican.  If Tim Ryan wins, both Senate seats will be held by Democrats.

Tim Ryan has been a Member of Congress for 20 years. During his tenure, the district has wandered a little – from Youngstown to Akron.  Tim Ryan has not wandered much.  He is and has been a blue collar representative of a blue collar district, a predominantly White blue collar district that remained Democratic while similar districts tried out being Republican.

He was a high school quarterback, injured so that he could not play in college.  His father left the family.  He and his brother were raised by their mother, assisted by her parents who lived nearby.  His mother, through her work, had some familiarity with politics or, at least familiarity with city hall.  After college Tim Ryan went to work for Congressman Jim Traficant.  Tim Ryan left the state to get his JD from Franklin Pierce Law Center in New Hampshire.  He returned and was elected to the State Senate.  Tim Ryan was one of a bunch of candidates running against Jim Traficant, who, by then, was in jail for corruption.

At 29, Tim Ryan was elected to Congress.  He was pretty conservative.  An opponent of abortion, he supported the Stupak Amendment prohibiting federal funding of abortions.  An opponent of China’s industrial competition, he supported punitive tariffs. He was willing to support tax increases to reduce the deficit. Gradually, he changed.  By 2010, he had become pro-choice.  He became an outspoken supporter of Israel and also supported the Iran nuclear deal. After undertaking constituent service on behalf of an undocumented immigrant who was a successful local businessman married to an American citizen, he developed an interest in fixing the immigration laws.  He also developed an interest in mindfulness as a way to deal with fear and aggression, as a way to help veterans with PTSD.  He retained a blue collar sensibility and referred to a Bruce Springsteen song when he told an audience that the country has forgotten that it is on the back of the middle class that we had won the wars, built the economy, and built the cities.  Now it is time, he said, for the country to remember them.

Tim Ryan’s first campaign issue is “cutting the workers in on the deal.” Bring workers and business together to end disinvestment, unfair trade, and outsourcing.  His second issue is the same – rebuild American manufacturing.

His opponent, JD Vance, won the Republican nomination after Donald Trump endorsed him.  Growing up in poverty, he went to Ohio State (BA) and Yale (JD).  He wrote a memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, which more or less blamed those who did not get out of poverty the way he did.  He had been working in venture capital and as a talking head before he decided on the Ohio Senate race.  Donate to Tim Ryan, he will need every dollar.  During the summer Republicans had been complaining about Vance’s desultory campaign.  Not anymore. Independent Republican entities have put money together for Vance and moved him to action.

  • On September 29th, 538 projected that Ryan would win 29 times in 100 and found that he was behind 48.2 – 51.8
  • Recent Polls help
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on September 22nd that Ryan was ahead 46-43
    • An independently funded A rated poll reported on September 15th that Ryan was tied 45-45
    • An independently funded A rated poll reported on September 15th that Ryan was behind 45-46
    • A media funded A-rated poll reported on September 13th that Ryan was behind 40-44
    • An independently funded B-rated poll reported on September 13th that Ryan was behind 45-48
    • A Republican funded unrated poll reported on September 11th that Ryan was ahead 46-43
    • A media funded B+ rated poll reported on September 7th that Ryan was ahead 47-46
    • An organization that describes itself as favoring freedom funded a B/C rated poll that reported on September 2nd Ryan was ahead 45-39
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 2nd that Ryan was ahead 44-35
  • At the beginning of July, Tim Ryan had $3.5 million available for the campaign, JD Vance had $600,000

 

Pennsylvania

John Fetterman

The Democratic nominee for the US Senate from Pennsylvania is John Fetterman (Political Note #433).  Pennsylvania is an evenly divided state.  That division is reflected in its Congressional districts and, now that the state legislature has been ungerrymandered, will be reflected in the state legislature as well.  The seat John Fetterman is seeking is open because the Republican incumbent retired.  If John Fetterman can win, then both Senate seats will be held by Democrats.

John Fetterman does not look like a conventional candidate.  He is 6’9”, heavily tattooed, and wears what might be called a biker’s beard. Not that he has never worn a suit, but typically  dresses very informally.  His parents built a successful insurance business and John Fetterman had planned to go into the business after he finished his college football career and graduated.  He rethought his plans when a college friend was killed in an automobile accident.  He tested that change of plans by working, on behalf of Big Brother/Big Sister, with the son of a single mother who lost her husband to AIDS.

John Fetterman joined AmeriCorps after graduation and worked in Pittsburgh setting up a GED program for high school graduation.  He did a year at Harvard’s Kennedy School and rejoined AmeriCorps.  This time he was assigned to the small rust belt, predominantly Black city of Braddock.  Encouraged by the teenagers he worked with, he ran for mayor and won by a single vote.  As mayor, he performed one of the first same sex marriages in Pennsylvania and with his wife, created a community center, urban gardens, and fought the construction of a highway through the town.

He ran for the US Senate, coming in third in the primary; ran for Lt. Governor and won.  In Pennsylvania, the Lt. Governor runs with the Governor, so you would have to say Tom Wolf won the general election. John Fetterman was an active and progressive Lt. Governor.  He emphasized rehabilitation in his responsibility for prisons, urged the legalization of marijuana, and passage of a wealth tax.  He won the Democratic primary for the US Senate this time 59-26.  He starts his website saying he will hold Washington accountable for soaring prices, hollowed out communities, and families being ripped off by corporate greed.  He describes his 5 point plan – more manufacturing in the US, cut taxes for working people, ban Congressmen from trading stocks, cut people’s  health care costs, and end “immoral price gouging.”

His opponent can thank Donald Trump for his nomination.  If Dr. Mehmut Oz is elected, he would be the Senate’s first Muslim.  He has promised to renounce his Turkish citizenship if he is elected.  He has, however, become famous in a very American way.  He is a television celebrity doctor, appearing frequently on Oprah Winfrey’s show and offering medical advice on his own show.  His first campaign issue is energy independence relying on the natural gas and coal produced in Pennsylvania.  He second campaign issue is responding to Covid.  Emphasizing his reliability as a doctor, he dismisses the value of masks as protection against covid.  Donate to John Fetterman, he will need every dollar.  During the summer John Fetterman mocked Oz for his New Jersey residences and some effete ways.  He may be ahead now, but he needs to press that advantage.

  • On September 29th , 538 projected that Fetterman would win 79 times in 100 and found that he was ahead 51.5 – 46.3
  • Recent Polls help
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on September 26th that Fetterman was ahead 45-41
    • A media funded B rated poll reported on September 24th that Fetterman was ahead 45-42
    • An independently funded A rated poll reported on September 22nd that Fetterman was ahead 51-41
    • A school funded unrated poll reported on September 19th that Fetterman was ahead 47-45
    • A media funded B+ rated poll reported on September 16th that Fetterman was ahead 49 – 44
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on September 15th that Fetterman was ahead 48 – 46
    • A media funded B+ rated poll reported on September 12th that Fetterman was ahead 52 – 47
    • An organization that describes itself as favoring freedom funded a B/C rated poll that reported on September 7th Fetterman was ahead 57 – 36
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 3rd that Fetterman was ahead 49 – 40
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 1st that Fetterman was ahead 55 – 36
  • At the beginning of July, John Fetterman had $5.5 million available for the campaign, Mehmut Oz had $1.1 million in the middle of September

Contests for Governor

These races have not been followed quite as closely as the US Senate races.  Take a look at these candidates.

Ohio

Nan Whaley

Nan Whaley (Political Note #465) won election as Mayor of Dayton in 2013 and reelection in 2017.  She cut unemployment in this rust belt city from 9.3% to 5.7% and led Ohio and the country as the 4th city to sue pharmaceutical companies over the opioid crisis. She obtained a modest tax increase to support the creation of a universal preschool program. Under her leadership, an enormous amount was invested in downtown Dayton. After her eight years of leadership, Dayton looks like a city beginning to recover from more than a half century of decline. In 1960, Dayton had a population of 260,000.  Its population has dropped below 140,000.

Nan Whaley grew up in a small town in Indiana.  Her dad was an auto worker until he was laid off.  Her mom worked in a laundromat.  She got to know Dayton while attending the University of Dayton for her BA in chemistry. In college, she was an active Democrat and reached beyond her own school.  She was the Ohio Chair of the College Democrats of America and the Executive Director of the county Democratic Party.  When she got a paying job, it was as an administrative assistant to the County Auditor.  She stayed active in politics and was elected to the City Commission from which she moved up to become the mayor.

Out of necessity, she has made being middle class central to her campaign to become governor.  She distinguishes herself from her opponent, the current governor, Mike DeWine who she describes as a millionaire.  She and her husband, who works in a business that provides financial consultation to school districts and other local entities, are decidedly not millionaires.

Because Nan Whaley was so effective in dealing with the aftereffects of a mass shooting in Dayton, there was an expectation that gun control would be central to her campaign. Mike DeWine picked it up, made a proposal to the legislature which rejected it and, instead, loosened gun restrictions.  All that effectively placed DeWine to the left of the members of his party on that issue.

Nan Whaley’s first campaign issue is to restore Ohio as an innovative source of new jobs, supporting small businesses and the innovations they can bring; reminding the people of inventors like the Wright Brothers, Garrett Morgan (the African American inventor of a precurser to the gas mask).  She also reminds them of the benefits of good union jobs.  Her second issue is a plan to restore ethics to Ohio government.  No one in Ohio needs to be reminded of the bribery and racketeering scandals from which, she says, Mike DeWine has looked away.   Mike DeWine touts a new Intel factory for Ohio, the largest tax cut in Ohio history, and the state’s pro-business culture.

  • On September 29th , 538 projected that Whaley would win less than once in 100 times and found that she was behind 41.5 – 58.5
  • Recent Polls help
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on September 22nd that Whaley was behind 32-55
    • An independently funded B/C rated poll reported on September 15th that Whaley was behind 39-57
    • An independently funded A rated poll reported on September 15th that Whaley was behind 37 – 55 organization that describes itself as favoring freedom
    • A media funded A- rated poll reported on September 13th that Whaley was behind 33 – 50
    • An independently funded B- rated reported on September 13th that Whaley was behind 41 – 44
    • A Republican funded unrated poll reported on September 11th that Whaley was behind 37 – 49
    • A media funded B+ rated poll reported on September 7th that Whaley was behind 39 – 54
    • A freedom oriented organization funded B/C rated poll reported on September 7th that Whaley was behind 35 – 54
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 2nd that Whaley was behind 37-53
  • In the year and a half before July 1, 2022, Nan Whaley raised $4.5 million and spent $4 million; Mike DeWine raised $12.3 million and spent $6.8 million

Pennsylvania Governor

Josh Shapiro

After being elected Attorney General in 2016 and 2020, Josh Shapiro (Political Note #426) has set his sights on becoming Governor.  Raised in Montgomery County, PA, he received his BA from Rochester, his JD from Georgetown.  He was elected to the Pennsylvania House of Representatives in 2004, to the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners in 2011. He has chaired the Board of Commissioners and was also appointed by the governor to be chair of the state Commission on Crime and Delinquency.  Josh Shapiro is an observant Jew and belongs to a Conservative synagogue.  He and his wife have four children.

Josh Shapiro learned something about advocacy as a child.  He participated in a pen pal program with a Jewish boy from the Soviet Union.  Through advocacy, in which young Josh took part, the family was able to move to the US in time for Josh’s Bar Mitzvah and then move on to Israel. Josh Shapiro is particularly proud of having eliminated a $10 million deficit in the Montgomery County Commission’s budget while replacing Wall Street managers and reforming the County pension system management. He is proud of his role as Attorney General in taking drugs and guns off the streets, protecting health care, and the integrity of the 2020 presidential vote.  First among his campaign issues is protecting women’s choice regarding health care and ensuring that all Pennsylvanians, including members of the Black community, have the opportunity to participate in the economy and obtain safe and affordable housing.

Josh Shapiro is a contrast to his Republican opponent, State Senator Doug Mastriano.  A retired Army Colonel, Mastriano is a Christian nationalist who opposes the separation between church and state. Endorsed by Donald Trump, he was a supporter before the endorsement.  Doug Mastriano attended the January 6 insurrection and was among those who entered the Capitol building.  He has refused to cooperate with the January 6 committee.  Before January 6, he sought additional recounts of Pennsylvania’s 2020 votes, hoping to overturn the results. His first campaign issue is to ensure personal freedom by ending mask mandates (choice for abortion, apparently, does not count as a freedom).  He would protect the integrity of elections by ending mail-in voting, drop boxes, and require voter ID.

  • On September 29th , 538 projected that Shapiro would win 91 times in 100 and found that he was ahead 53.4 – 44.6
  • Recent Polls help
    • A media funded B rated poll reported on September 24th that Shapiro was ahead 52-37
    • An independently funded A rated poll reported on September 22nd that Shapiro was ahead 53-40
    • A school funded unrated poll reported on September 19th that Shapiro was ahead 46-43
    • A media funded B+ rated poll reported on September 16th that Shapiro was leading 53 — 42
    • A Republican funded A rated poll reported on September 15th that Shapiro was leading 47 – 45
    • A media funded B+ rated poll reported on September 12th that Shapiro was leading 55 – 44
    • A freedom oriented organization funded a B/C rated poll that reported on September 7th that Shapiro was leading 55 – 36
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 3rd that Shapiro was leading 47 – 41
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 1st that Shapiro was leading 58 — 35
  • In the middle of May, Shapiro had $15.8 million available for spending, Doug Mastriano had $800,000.

Downballot races

There are no down ballot races in Pennsylvania or West Virginia.  Ohio had contests for Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer, and State Auditor.

Ohio Secretary of State

Chelsea Clark

A thirty-six year old City Counselor in the small city of Forest Park, Chelsea Clark (Political Note #471) does not have statewide recognition.  Her family were farmers. She went off to university and now has a business in nearby, suburban Blue Ash – after school science and technology programs.  She has been on the southwest regional transportation board, so she has some name recognition in the Cincinnati area.

Her principal advantages are her energy and her opponent — the incumbent Frank La Rose.  He is opposed to early voting and anything else that makes voting easy.  He is anti-abortion and proposed a bill requiring the burial of all fetal remains.  He spent a fair amount of time trying to kick Chelsea Clark off the ballot or, at a minimum, to find the smallest possible technicalities he could make a fuss about.  She is worth supporting – an enthusiastic and interesting candidate who would make voting easier, modernize the voter registration data base, defend the system against cyber meddling, and require so-called dark money to be reported.

Ohio Attorney General

Jeff Crossman (Political Note #490) has been elected twice to his Cleveland area state Rep position.  He is running for Attorney General in order to deal with Ohio’s legislative corruption.  Ohio has had a serious bribery scandal which he wanted focus on.  Abortion intervened as an issue when a raped 14 year old Ohioan had to go to Indiana to get an abortion.  The incumbent Ohio Attorney General, Dave Yost, claimed there was no rape until the rapist confessed.  Ohio, it happens, also has a serious gerrymandering problem.  At least five times, the state Supreme Court has required the redistricting committee and the legislature to redo its districting plan.  Just as many times the redistricting committee and the legislature has ignored that mandate.  Jeff Crossman has filed a dereliction of duty complaint against the redistricting committee (which includes senior elected officials like the governor and the secretary of state).  He would bring the process to conclusion as Attorney General. The statute allows for jail terms.  If he is elected, he might even get a chance to address the legislature’s corruption problem.  The incumbent Dave Yost is not addressing any of these issues.  Give Jeff Crossman a hand.

Ohio State Treasurer

Scott Schertzer

The Mayor of Marion, Ohio and a former employee in the state treasurer’s office under Mary Ellen Withrow who eventually became the US Treasurer, Scott Schertzer also comments on the state’s culture of corruption.  A former teacher and former president of Ohio’s Municipal League, he has some state-wide connections.  Scott Schertzer is running against the incumbent Republican Robert Sprague who introduces his website by saying Faith. Family. Finance. He concludes his website with a claim that Joe Biden thinks 8.3% inflation is no big deal.  Think Scott Schertzer.

Ohio State Auditor

Taylor Sappington

The City Auditor of Nelsonville, Taylor Sappington is running for State Auditor again after running in 2018. Thirty years old and gay, he is from the Appalachian part of Ohio.  Like the Democratic candidate for Attorney General, he is focused on Ohio’s corruption problem.  His phrase is: “I promise to balance the books and, when necessary, catch the crooks.” The Republican incumbent is Keith Faber.  He apparently does not believe the State Auditor position is a full time job.  He  touts, on his campaign website, his successful law practice in his home town of Celena.  The various awards he has received from business associations have been, he says, for his commitment to lower taxes and smaller, responsible government.  Think Taylor Sappington.

 

Ohio Supreme Court (Pennsylvania has no Supreme Court elections in 2022)

Jennifer Brunner Marilyn Zayas.       Teri Jamison,

Chief                        Associate                   Associate                                                                                                                 Associate

This is a crucial election in Ohio, a BFD as Joe Biden would say.   Ohio has a seven-member Supreme Court.  Since oral arguments in December, 2021, the Court struggled with redistricting.  The results were consistent.  Five times, the Court ruled 4-3 requiring the legislature to conform to a constitutional requirement that the distribution of seats not favor a political party.  Each time, the Redistricting Commission made little or no change and the legislature voted the Redistricting Commission’s recommendation.  The Commission is composed of the Governor, the Auditor, and the Secretary of State (all Republicans) plus appointees by the Senate President and Speaker of the House (Republicans) and the Minority Leaders of the Senate and House (Democrats)

Currently the Court is made up of  3 Democratic Associate Justices, 3 Republican Associate Justices, and a Chief Justice.  The Chief Justice is retiring at the end of 2022. She has been voting with the Democrats on redistricting issues.  Two Associate Justices, a Democrat and a Republican, are running to be Chief Justice.  While this is an important post, who wins will not affect the composition of the Court.  The vacancy will be filled by the Republican governor Mike DeWine with a Republican. Associate Justice not elected Chief will remain on the Court.

Associate Justice Jennifer Brunner, a former Ohio Secretary of State, is the Democratic candidate.  When she was in private practice, she had a strong interest in fair elections and a willingness to represent unpopular clients.  Associate Justice Sharon Kennedy, who used to represent police and police organizations, is the Republican candidate.  A Democratic victory in one of the two Associate Justice contests would create a 4-3 Democratic Court.

Marilyn Zayas is one of the Democratic candidates.  Hispanic, she came to Ohio from East Harlem to work for Proctor and Gamble as an IT professional.  She went to law school, opened her own practice, and dealt with complex business and labor law issues.  She is running against incumbent Associate Justice Pat DeWine, the governor’s son. He had planned to run for Chief Justice until it was explained to. him that, because his term is up, if he ran and lost, he would be off the Supreme Court.  The other Democrat is Teri Jamison.  A judge in the Court of Common Pleas, she came to Ohio from West Virginia to get a CETA job.  She went to law school and now, in addition to her judicial responsibilities, writes a column for African American newspapers and has been featured in two documentaries, one of which had its premiere with the Congressional Black Caucus.  She is running against incumbent Associate Justice Patrick Fisher.  He has a BA and JD from Harvard and was a partner at Keating Muething & Klekamp until he was appointed a judge.

Change the complexion of the Ohio Supreme Court.  Donate to each of the Democratic candidates.  Read more about these candidates in Political Note #444.

Ohio Congressional Races

Three Ohio races are among the 50 closest Congressional races identified by the website 538

OH 09 R+8

Inc Marcy Kaptur

Ohio Republicans thought this would be easy.  They redistricted so this 75 year old Congresswoman would be in a district that was sufficiently Republican to make her retire.  Not a chance, it turns out.  She has been around since it was reasonable to be progressive, labor-oriented, and moved by Roman Catholic social movements.  The Republican primary winner, JR Majewski, was an inexperienced right wing guy whose most recent mistake was to refer to his war experience in Afghanistan when he had no such experience. There are more scandals to come.   Republicans are taking their money out of the campaign.

  • On September 29th 538 projected that Kaptur would win 75 times in 100 and that she was ahead 52.4 – 47.6
  • Recent Polls help
    • A Republican funded unrated poll reported on June 30th that Kaptur was ahead  47 – 42
  • On July 1st Kaptur had $1.7 million for the rest of the campaign, Majewski had $400,000

OH 13 R+4

This is Tim Ryan’s old district, revised so that Akron is the big city.  Emilia Sykes’ (Political Note #460) parents have been integral to Akron politics for a long time.  She had intended to do something other than politics. A gymnast or a dancer or an activist psychologist.  She got her professional degree from the University of Florida – not the farthest you could get from Ohio, but pretty far.  Her parents lured her back. They told her how important it was to keep the district Democratic, that Emilia was the one to do it, and that she could do more good in Congress than she could in a clinic or lobbying Members of Congress.  Her idea of doing good?  Fix the supply chain crisis and create an American manufacturing base so there will not be another supply chain crisis.  Make sure that health care is affordable, cap the cost of life saving medications such as insulin, and ensure that women can make their own decisions about their health care.

Her opponent? Madison Gesiotto Gilbert is a Trump acolyte. She introduces herself as a Christian small business owner and lawyer.  Her first issue is the size of the national debt and excessive spending.  Her second is the second amendment.  She opposes the “gun grabbing liberals.”  Help Emilia Sykes win this election.

  • On September 29th 538 projected that Sykes would win 16 times in 100 and that she was behind 46.7 – 53.3
  • There are no available polls
  • On July 1st Sykes had $600,000 for the rest of the campaign, Gesiotto Gilbert had $400,000

OH 01 R+3

Greg Landsman (Political Note #452) is a member of Cincinnati’s City Council.  He is running in the district where Democrats have the best chance to flip a seat in Ohio.  He ran for City Council once before he was elected.  After he lost, he took up boxing.  He uses boxing as a metaphor for politics, about the need to react quickly, to take a jab, to persevere.  He was involved in politics before he ran for city council – working on Bill Bradley’s presidential campaign.  Based on his Harvard Divinity School degree, he coordinated faith based initiatives for Ohio governor Ted Strickland.  More recently, he coordinated Cincinnati’s Strive Partnership of corporations and the city on behalf of schools.  He begins his campaign saying it is time to lower costs and raise wages as he points out that corporations are making record profits. He would raise the minimum wage and update labor laws.

Greg Landsman is running against incumbent Steve Chabot. Chabot says the economy is just fine as a result of Donald Trump’s policies.  The main problem he sees in the economy is that corporations have to hire lawyers and accountants to deal with too many regulations. He decries the cost of health care, which he blames on the Affordable Care Act and proposes a market-based health care system.  Help Greg Landsman flip this seat.

  • On September 29th 538 projected that Landsman would win 16 times in 100 and that he was behind 46.8 – 53.2
  • Recent polls can be helpful
    • A Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on September 21st that Landsman was ahead 49-46
  • On July 1st Landsman had $800,000 for the rest of the campaign, Chabot had $750,000

Pennsylvania Congressional Races

There are three Pennsylvania races among the 50 closest Congressional races identified by the website 538

PA 07 R+4

Incumbent Susan Wild (Political Note #394) became something more than a successful attorney in the Lehigh Valley because of her brief stint as City Solicitor for Allentown.  Sixth months into her term a search warrant was issued for records.  The FBI had identified a culture of corruption in the city.  Records of that corruption would strengthen the prosecution.  The FBI and the US Attorney were gratified to find that Allentown’s City Solicitor was thorough, competent, and had integrity.  Her capacity to produce the necessary records was a victory for the prosecutors and, it turned out, a political victory for Susan Wild.  Known for her integrity, she was elected to Congress.

She begins making her case for reelection by touting her bipartisan approach in a Congress that is divided along partisan lines. She identifies success as a return to a Congress where Members solve problems.  She seeks transparency regarding where donations come from and is committed to making sure voters are not suppressed.  Her second goal is to increase funding for education, make post-secondary education less expensive, and bring more women into the sciences.

Her opponent, Lisa Scheller wants to cut taxes and to blame Democrats, especially Susan Wild, for inflation.  Consider a donation to Susan Wild

  • On September 29th 538 projected that Wild would win 47 times in 100 and that she was behind 49.8 – 50.2
  • There are no available polls
  • On July 1st Wild had $3.1 million for the rest of the campaign, Scheller had $1.2 million

PA 08 R+8

Incumbent Matt Cartwright (Political Note #469) was first elected to Congress in 2012.  As the district has become more Republican, his task has been tougher.  He won by 4 points in 2020, but by 10 points in 2018.  The largest city in his district is Scranton, Joe Biden’s favorite Pennsylvania city. He earned his first election when he and his wife joined her father’s law firm and Matt Cartwright created a television show answering questions about the law. Down to earth.  Practical.  People trusted him.  He has sustained that trust, seeking to be bipartisan within the district as well as in Congress.  For instance, he developed a bipartisan committee to help think through the Affordable Care Act as it was being created.

Matt Cartwright’s opponent, Jim Bognet insists that the taxes corporations have to pay and the regulations they have to live with are what stands in the way of good jobs for Pennsylvanians.  He frightens his constituents as he tells them the crisis on the border will be moved north. Joe Biden, he says,  is planning to bring unvetted refugees from Afghanistan to rural Pennsylvania.  Bognet is apparently not inclined to thank Afghanis who worked with Americans in the fight against the Taliban.  See what you can do to help Matt Cartwright.

  • On September 29th 538 projected that Cartwright would win 74 times in 100 and that he was ahead 52.1 – 47.9
  • Recent Polls help
    • A Democratic funded B rated poll reported on September 15th that Cartwright was ahead   52 – 44
    • A Republican funded B+ rated poll reported on September 8th that Cartwright and Bognet were tied at 48.
  • On July 1st Cartwright had $2.7 million for the rest of the campaign, Bognet had $600,000

PA 17 D+1

Chris Deluzio (Political Note #475) is the policy director for the University of Pittsburgh Institute for Cyber Law.  He is a national expert on technology and the law, a graduate of the Naval Academy and Georgetown Law School who came home to the Pittsburgh area from New York where he had been on the staff of the Brennan Center. He begins with a commitment to democracy and an appreciation for and an attachment to the importance of unions.

His opponent, Jeremy Shaffer, owns and runs a software company that manages transportation.  His says he will put family first, by which he means we should reduce the size of the federal debt which he believes to be immoral.  Secondly, he promises to work tirelessly to improve the nation and the region’s infrastructure.  Would he have joined the 13 Republicans in the House to support the infrastructure bill that was passed?  He does not even acknowledge the law. Help Chris Deluzio stay in Congress.

  • On September 29th 538 projected that Deluzio would win 73 times in 100 and that he was ahead 51.1 – 48.9
  • There are no available polls
  • On July 1st Deluzio had $350,000 for the rest of the campaign, Shaffer had over $900,000 at the end of August.

West Virginia Congressional Races

Lucy Watson is the Democratic candidate for West Virginia’s First Congressional District.  Barry Lee Wendell is the Democratic candidate for West Virginia’s Second Congressional District.  Neither of them, according to 538, have even a 1 chance in 100 of winning their election.

Pennsylvania State Legislature

Mandy Steele.               Lisa Borowski    Jim Haddock

Melissa Cerrato.               Nick Miller

Take a look at Len’s Political Note #503 on the Pennsylvania state legislature.  Consider the fourteen candidates listed. You could support every one of them.  They are the candidates who, as best I can tell based on CNalysis, would flip the Pennsylvania House and Senate if they won.  You could limit yourself to the candidates in the group who are in Toss up districts or districts that Tilt or Lean Republican.  There are two national projects that seek to ensure that there are Democratic state legislatures I want to mention.

  • Every District which has a list of endorsed candidates for the Pennsylvania legislature. You can support the group of them through a donation to Every District.
  • The States Project also has a list of endorsees and mechanisms through which you can support the endorsed candidates.

If you had $500 available just for Ohio and Pennsylvania, consider the following:

Tim Ryan for US Senate from OH.                       $100

Josh Shapiro for Governor of PA                          $ 100

John Fetterman for US Senate from PA.              $  50

Marilyn Zayas for Ohio Supreme Court                $  50

Teri Jamison for Ohio Supreme Court                  $  50

Pennsylvania State Legislature                             ($ 50)

            Toss Up Mandy Steele HD 33                   $  10

            Toss Up Lisa Borowski HD 168                 $  10

            Tilt R Jim Haddock HD 118                        $  10

            Lean R Melissa Cerrato HD 151               $  10

            Toss Up Nick Miller SD 14                         $  10

Susan Wild PA 07                                                   $  50

Chelsea Clark for Ohio Secretary of State           $  25

Jeff Crossman for Ohio Attorney General.           $  25

Cautions while donating through Act Blue (most Democratic candidates use Act Blue for online donations)

  1. Take care to hit the donate button only once. If you hit it a second time, you could be charged for two donations instead of one.
  2. Take care to watch for an already clicked recurring donation. You can unclick it and donate only once if that is your intent.
  3. Watch for your receipt. If the receipt indicates a donation different from your intention, reply to Act Blue via the receipt right away.  They will fix your donation.  They want you to donate only what you intend to donate

Donations to candidates who don’t use Act Blue can be problematic Some donation websites do not have the commitment Act Blue has to ensuring that you donate only what you intend to donate.