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OR as Senator Jon Tester says: Run through the f—-ing tape.
Check out the website https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Political Note #326 House Members who could elect a President, Len’s Letters #29 Women candidates for whom donations could make a difference. Len’s Letters #30 Male candidates for whom donations could make a difference
Political Note #333 State of the House
The United States House of Representatives has 435 members. To have a majority, a party needs 218 seats. The Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives in 2018 and currently have 232 seats, Republicans have 198 seats. There is one Libertarian seat and that person is not up for reelection. Four seats are vacant, three formerly held by Republicans, one formerly held by a Democrat.
To gain a majority in the 2020 election, Republicans would need to gain 20 seats. They cannot gain 20 seats from toss ups alone. The toss ups seats listed below were identified by Ballotpedia, which relied on the three or four leading political analysts that create lists of safe seats, seats that are likely to go to a particular party, seats that lean toward one or the other political party, and Toss ups. Ballotpedia has listed only 15 Democratic held seat Toss ups. A victory in every one of the Toss up seats would not elect a Republican House. That is made harder when two Republican held North Carolina seats are now likely to go Republicans and when a Republican held Texas seat is identified as leaning toward the Democratic candidate.
The Republicans can aim at getting a House majority. To do that, they would have to flip all or a substantial majority of the Democratic held Toss ups while protecting all or almost all of the Republican held Toss ups.
Let’s look at where these candidates stand in recent polls and where they stood with their September 30 report of cash available for the balance of the campaign.
Democratically held Toss ups
- CA 21. Inc TJ Cox v ex Member of Congress David Valadao (Valadao 49-38) (Valadao $1.6M, Cox $1.1M). Valadao leads by nine points in a recent poll and had a half million dollars more for the last month of the campaign. Move this race to Lean Republican. Political Note #112, #192
- FL 26 Inc Debbie Mucarsel-Powell v Carlos Gimenez (no recent polls) (Mucarsel-Powell $1M, Gimenez $.6M). Carlos Gimenez is the mayor of Miami and a formidable opponent for this one term Member of Congress. It doesn’t help that she is an Ecuadorean American and he is a Cuban American in the heart of the Cuban American population. Nevertheless, she is a powerful fund raiser and has the benefit of being the incumbent. This should stay a Toss up. Political Note #92, #201
- GA 06 Inc Lucy McBath v Karen Handel (no recent polls) (McBath $1.9M, Handel $1M) Lucy McBath is an African-American in a majority white district outside of Atlanta. She has a story to tell. Her son was killed outside a convenience store by a man who did not like the music her son and his friends were playing. The shooter was convicted and McBath joined Mike Bloomberg’s gun safety effort. McBath defeated Handel to be elected to Congress and has the resources to finish the campaign and do it again. Put this as Lean Democratic Political Noe #191
- IA 01 Inc Abby Finkenauer v Ashley Hinson (Tied 45) (Hinson $.7 M, Finkenauer $.6 M). If it weren’t for AOC, Finkenauer would be the youngest member of Congress. She’s was a young and effective member of the Iowa House, but is running against a state representative who is also a regionally wel- known television journalist. This should stay as a Toss-up. Political Note #257, #280
- IA 02 State Rep Rita Hart v Maironette Miller-Meeks (no recent polls) (Hart $1M, Mill-M $.4 M). Rita Hart is a very popular State Senator among both Republicans and Democrats. She has raised enough money to have closed out the campaign effectively. Put this as Lean Democratic Political Note #240
- A 03 Inc Cindy Axne v David Young (no recent polls) (Axne $1.6M, Young $1M) Cindy Axne was a back of the room Democrat. She is running against the Member of Congress she defeated in 2018. While she has a substantial fund raising margin, he has enough money to close out the campaign, which should still be considered a Toss-up. Political Note #157, #204
- ME 02 Inc Jared Golden v Dale Crafts (Golden 60-33, 52-34, 56-33) (Golden $.5M, Crafts $.2M). Golden is so dominant in recent polls and in the money competition, he may have made this seat into a Likely Democratic seat for himself – for 2020, at any rate. Political Note #139, #196
- MI 08 Inc Elissa Slotkin v Paul Junge (no recent polls) (Slotkin $3.5M, Junge $.5M) Elaine Slotkin is a former CIA officer who should defeat the ICE official opposing her handily. She certainly has the resources to complete the campaign. The seat should be moved to Lean or Likely Democratic. Political Note #64, #235
- MN 07 Inc Collin Peterson v Michelle Fischbach (no recent polls) (Peterson $1.5M, Fischbach.$7M). An early poll showed former State Senate Majority Leader and former Lt. Governor Fischbach winning handily. Peterson is probably the most conservative Democrat in the House, a fit for this conservative seat. Despite that early poll, so long as Peterson is the candidate, this seat is at least a Toss up. Political Note #258
- NM 02 Inc Xochitl Torres Small v Yvette Herrell (Herrell 48-47) (Torres Small 47-45) (Torres-Small $1.9M, Herrell $.5M). The polls are close enough to keep this seat as a Toss up, despite Torres Small’s substantial financial advantage over the person she defeated for the seat in 2018. Political Note #153, #195
- NY 11 Inc Max Rose v Nicole Malliotakis (no recent polls) (Rose 2.5M, Malliotakis .6M) Rose’s financial advantage should make this Lean Democratic. Politcal Note #84, #230
- NY 22 Inc Anthony Brindisi v Claudia Tenney (Brindisi 48-39) (Brindisi $1.2M, Tenney $.4M) A nine-point advantage in a poll and three times as much money to close out the campaign should make this seat Likely Democratic. Political Note #43, #200
- OK 05 Inc Kendra Horn v Stephanie Bice (Bice 49-45) (Horn 52-44) (Horn $1.4M, Bice $.9M) Dueling polls, Horn’s financial advantage, the district’s Republican lean leaves this race still a Toss up. Political Note #193
- UT 04 Inc Ben McAdams v Burgess Owens (McAdams 47-37) (Owens $1M, McAdams $.6M) McAdams strong poll, Owens financial advantage, and the district’s strong Republicn lean leaves this race still a Toss up. Political Note #154, #190
- VA 02 Inc Elaine Luria v Scott Taylor (no recent polls) (Luria $1.5M, Taylor .$5 M) Luria’s 3-1 financial advantage, her incumbency, her leadership among conservative Democrats makes this seat a Lean Democrat. Political Note #97, #202
The score on Ballotpedia’s Democratic held Toss ups is:
1 Lean Republican seat
7 Lean or Likely Democratic seats
7 Still Toss-ups.
Not all that promising for the Republicans.
And the Republican held seats and the Libertarian held seat?
Republican held Toss ups
- AZ 06 Hiral Tipirneni v Inc David Schweikart (Schweikart 49-46, 45-43) (Tipirneni 49-45) (Tipirneni $1.5M, Schweikart $.5 M) Despite the Republican lean of this district, the polls are toss ups and Tipirneni has triple the resources Schweikart has. This seat should remain a Toss up. Political Note #102, #272
- AR 02 Joyce Elliott v French Hill (Tied 46,48) (Hill $1.5 M, Elliot $.6 M) The two most recent polls have the candidates tied. This seat remains a Toss up. Political Note #281
- CA 25 Christy Smith v Inc Mike Garcia (Smith 49-47, 51-45) (Garcia 2M, Smith .5M) Unlike most races this year, the Republican has a financial advantage. This is a swing district. Smith’s two polls that give her leads are not enough to get this out of the Toss up Political Note #252
- GA 07 Carolyn Bordeaux v Rich McCormick (no recent polls) (Bourdeaux $.9M, McCormick$ .7M). The earliest polls had Bordeaux slightly ahead for this open seat. She came so close in 2018 and is so strong a campaigner, this race should be Lean Democrat. Political Note #172, #300
- IL 13 Betsy D Londrigan v Inc Rodney Davis (Londrigan 48-43) (Davis 48-47) (Davis 1.7M, Londrigan 1.4M). Dueling polls. A narrow margin in finances. A win by a percentage point. This race is a Toss up. Political Note #145
- IN 05 Christina Hale v Victoria Spartz (No recent poll) (Each has .6 M) This race is a Toss up. Political Note #259
- MI 06 Jon Hoadley Inc Fred Upton (no recent polls) (Upton 45-40) (Upton 1.4M, Hoadley .4M) Upton has an edge in the only recent poll and a substantial financial edge. Lean Republican. Political Note #249
- NE 02 Kara Eastman v Inc Don Bacon (Eastman 47-45) (Bacon 45-44, 47-42) (Bacon $1M, Eastman $.3M) Dueling polls with a slight edge to Bacon and more than a slight financial edge. Kara Eastman is a very appealing candidate, but call this Lean Republican. Political Note #196, #292
- NJ 02 Amy Kennedy v Inc Jeff Van Drew (Kennedy 50-44, 46-42, 49-44, 49-43) (Van Drew 1.3M, Kennedy.3M) Despite Van Drew’s financial advantage, Amy Kennedy should have access to whatever funds she needs for this race against the pro-Trump former Democratic Rep. Based on the poll results, she may not need a lot. Lean Democratic. Political Note #309
- NY 02 Jackie Gordon v Andrew Garbarino (no recent polls) (Gordon $9M, Garbarino $3M) Gordon’s financial lead and her campaigning for this open seat could well make her the next African American representing a majority white district. Lean Democratic. Political Note #266
- NY 24 Dana Balter v Inc John Katko (Balter 45-43, 45-42) (Katko $1.2M, Balter $.3M) Balter’s polls v Katko’s incumbency and financial advantage. This is still a Toss up.) Political Note #109, 284
- OH 01 Kate Schroder v Inc Steve Chabot (Schroder 50-48) (Chabot $.7M, Schroder $.4M) Schroder’s polls v Chabot’s incumbency financial advantage. This is still a Toss up. Political Note #288
- TX 21 Wendy Davis v Inc Chip Roy (Davis 48-47) (Roy $2.4M, Davis $1.9M) A one point difference poll, reasonably close funds available. This is still a Toss up. Political Note #267
- TX 22 Sri Preston Kulkari v Troy Nehls (Kulkari 48-43, 47-44) (Kulkari $1.7M, Nehls .4M) Better polls, more money, a national candidate for an open seat. This is Lean Democratic. Political Note #277
- TX 24 Candace Valenzuela v Beth Van Duyne (no recent polls) (Valenzuela $1M, Van Duyne $.8M) For this open seat, the candidates are close on money. Valenzueala is appealing; Van Duyne is thoroughly not (from my perspective), but this is still Texas and the seat is still a Toss up. Political Note #310
- VA 05 Cameron Webb v Bob Good (Webb 47-45, 45-42) (Good 47-46) (Webb $1.2M, $Good .4M). Webb is gaining an edge in this open Republican seat. But not enough of an edge to avoid this being a Toss up. Political Note #303
Libertarian held Toss up
- MI 03 Hillary Scholten v Peter Meijer (Meijer 48-41) (Scholten 44-42) (Tied 41) (Scholten $.8M, Meijer $.7M). This seat, which would make Michigan’s delegation Democratic, should the Presidential election go to the House, is a Toss up even though Meijer has an unlimited amount of money. Political Note #282
Lean Republican 2
Lean Democratic 4
Still Toss-ups 10
Total of the 32 seats Ballotpedia described as Toss-ups:
Lean Republican 3
Lean Democratic 11
Still Toss-ups 17
This is not promising for the Republicans. Republicans are likely to lose 8 seats. Maybe more.