Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Political Note #315 Patricia Timmons-Goodwin NC 08, Political Note #289 Cynthia Wallace NC 09, Political Note #199 Joe Cunningham SC 01, Political Note #202 Inc. Elaine Luria VA 02, Political Note #303 Cameron Webb VA 05, Political Note #224 Inc Abigail Spanberger, VA 07, Political Note #191 Inc. Lucy McBath GA 06. Senate Candidates: Political Note #217 Jaime Harrison, South Carolina; Political Note #269 Rev. Dr. Raphael Warnock, Georgia (B); Political Note #283 Jon Ossoff Georgia (A), Political Note #250 Cal Cunningham North Carolina
091220 Political Note #319 Morris Davis NC CD 11
2020 General election
Pundits consider NC 11 Likely Republican. Democrat Morris Davis https://moedavisforcongress.com/,therefore, is unlikely likely to win according to them. The pundits could be wrong about this wedge of North Carolina at the state’s west end between Tennessee and Georgia. An event could disrupt the conventional wisdom. Or may have happened already.
NC 11 is an open seat. The incumbent moved on. Mark Meadows became Donald Trump’s Chief of Staff. Democrats have won in this district before, though. Heath Schuler, a deeply conservative Democrat and former NFL quarterback represented the district for three terms. Thoroughly liberal Ashville (only a little of which is left in the district after redistricting) gives Democrats some hope they can win an election here.
Likely Republican means the Democrats need a candidate who can take advantage of an event. Wheelchair bound, Madison Cawthorn, the Republican candidate, is 25 years old and would be the youngest Member of Congress ever. Republicans see him as an antidote to AOC.
Young as he is, he has created scandals that could undermine his candidacy – two unpersuasive explanations of his behavior and three accusations of sexual assault. The sexual assaults, assuming the complaints are justified, occurred six years ago when he was 19 not long after he was confined to a wheel chair as a result of an automobile accident. The unpersuasive explanations are more recent. He explained his reason for visiting what he described as “The Fuhrer’s” vacation home. It was on his bucket list. He attributed his failure to be admitted to the Naval Academy to his disability even though the rejection came before the automobile accident that disabled him.
Cawthorn spoke at the Republican convention, telling people “not to cower to a mob” and to “kneel before God but stand for our flag.”. After his speech he got out of his wheelchair and stood behind a walker for the national anthem. Dramatic.
Moe Davis, the Democratic nominee, may not take advantage of Cawthorn’s bad behavior, but he is an example of belligerent good behavior.
Moe Davis https://moedavisforcongress.com/ knows something about dealing with a disability. His father, injured during training for WWII, was 100% disabled. =
Moe Davis knows something about drama. In 1983,after passing the bar, he joined the army to honor his father, who had just died from a heart attack.
Moe Davis knows something about drama. As Chief Prosecutor in Guantanamo, he dominated a press conference by describing prisoner Omar Khadr as a “terrorist” and a “murderer.” Khadr’s attorney complaining this was unethical behavior, asked that Moe Davis be prevented from making further public statements. The judge declined, pointing out that the prosecutor was responding to the defense attorney’s description of the trial as a sham at the same press conference.
Moe Davis knows something about integrity. He had been appointed Chief Prosecutor at Guantanamo Bay in 2005, but resigned from that position in 2007. He resigned because, against orders, he refused to use evidence obtained through torture. He made both legal and moral arguments for that rejection, but resigned nevertheless. He had been acting against orders. The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) honored Moe Davis by including him in a study titled “30 Officials Who Stood Up For Our Country.”
Moe Davis’s career was characterized by his integrity. After leaving Guantanamo, he became head of the Air Force Judiciary. While in that role, he was called to testify in the trial of Osama bin Laden’s driver. Under oath, Moe Davis testified about political interference in the legal processes at Guantanamo. After that testimony he was reassigned as the head of a division of the Congressional Research Service. He was fired from that position after he wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal arguing the federal government should choose to either rely on military tribunes or the courts. The federal government should not make case by case decisions, he said, about judicial venues.
Moe Davis knows something about winning. He filed a lawsuit when he was fired and won it. Not that he got his job back. Instead, critical comments in his personnel file were removed. He also won further recognition — the Justice Charles A. Whittaker Award for professional courage and integrity.
Moe Davis was less controversial in civilian life. He served as Executive Director of the Crimes of War Project for two years while teaching at the Howard University Law School. In 2015, he became an administrative law judge for the US Department of Labor. Among his rulings, he found for the plaintiffs and awarded restitution and $6.6 million in penalties against Enterprise Car Rental for discriminating against African-Americans.
Moe Davis, if elected, would be a feisty Member of Congress. He is not a 25 year-old relying on fireworks manufactured by a political convention. He is a 62-year old who created his own fireworks. He has challenged mindless bureaucracy. He knows something about the swamp and how to drain it.
Pundits say Moe Davis is unlikely to win. They say Madison Cawthorn is likely to win. Inside Election says: “Cawthorn posits himself as a generational figure for Republican politics, a young millennial/Gen Z counterweight to progressive figures such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. As such, he takes some heterodox positions for a Republican: he approves of removing statues of Confederate leaders through governmental processes, says he believes “Black Lives Matter” (using those exact words), and supports a constitutional amendment that would overturn the Citizens United Supreme Court decision. But Cawthorn is no moderate: he’s pro-life, opposes the ACA and sanctuary cities, supports Trump’s border wall, and disputes the existence of manmade climate change. As a young, outspoken, telegenic conservative, expect Cawthorn to be a regular figure on the cable circuit when he arrives in Washington next year.”
Let’s elect Moe Davis and keep Madison Cawthorn off the cable circuit. Let’s make it possible for the sexual harassment complaints and his awkward explanations put the seat in play. Neither candidate has raised much money. At the beginning of July, Cawthorn had $160,000 to close out his campaign. Moe Davis https://moedavisforcongress.com/ had $260,000. At this level, every dollar you can send will make a difference. Make a difference here.
DEMOCRATIC INSURGENTS WITH POLL RESULTS WHERE I HAVE THEM – Lots of candidate worth supporting. Where no recent poll is available, judgments are primarily from the Cook Report. Poll results are mostly from Daily Kos Elections.
Alaska AK Alyce Galvin to defeat incumbent Don Young (Lean R) (Galvin 43-41, 43-42)
Arizona 06 Hiral Tipirneni to defeat incumbent David Schweikert (Toss up)
Arkansas 02. Joyce Elliott to defeat incumbent French Hill (Likely R)
California 25. Christy Smith to defeat incumbent Mike Garcia who won the May special election. (Toss up) (Garcia 46-45, 48-41)
California 50 Ammar Campa-Hajjar to defeat Darrell Issa for this open Rep seat (Likely R) (Issa 46-45, 47-43)
Colorado 03 Diane Mitsch Bush to defeat Lauren Boebert for this open Republican seat (Mitsch 43-42)
Florida 15 Alan Cohn to defeat Scott Franklin for the open Republican seat. (Lean R)
Florida 16 Margaret Good to defeat incumbent Vern Buchanan. (Likely R) (Buchanan 51-35, 53-33)
Georgia 07 Carolyn Bordeaux to defeat Rich McCormick for this open Republican seat. (Lean D)
Illinois 13 Betsy Dirksen Londrigen to defeat incumbent Rodney Davis (Londrigan 43-41)
Indiana 05 Christina Hale to defeat Victoria Spartz for this open Republican seat (Hale 47-40, 50-45, 51-45) (Spatz 47-40)
Iowa 02 Rita Hart to defeat Marienette Miller-Meeks for this open seat (Toss-up)
Iowa 04 JD Scholten to defeat Randy Feenstra for this open seat (Likely R)
Kansas 02 Michelle De La Isla to defeat Jacob La Turner for this open Republican seat (Likely R)
Michigan 03. Hillary Scholten to defeat Peter Meijer for this open Republican seat (Likely R)
Michigan 06 Jon Hoadley to defeat incumbent Fred Upton (Lean R)
Minnesota 01 Dan Feehan* to defeat incumbent Jim Hagedorn (Hagedorn 41-38)
Missouri 02 Jill Schupp to defeat incumbent Ann Wagner (Toss up)
Montana AL Kathleen Williams to defeat Matt Rosendale for this open Republican seat (Lean R) (Tied 44-44, Rosendale 51-45, 49-47)
Nebraska 01 State Senator Kate Bolz to defeat incumbent Jeff Fortenberry (Safe R)
Nebraska 02. Kara Eastman to defeat incumbent Don Bacon (Toss up) (Schupp 48-45)
New Jersey 02 Amy Kennedy to defeat incumbent Jeff Van Drew (Kennedy 46-45, 51-46)
New York 01 Nancy Goroff to defeat. Incumbent Lee Zeldin. (Lean R) (Goroff 48-46) (Zeldin 47-42, 47-40)
New York 02 Jackie Gordon to defeat Andrew Garbarino for this open Republican seat. (Toss up)
New York 21 Tedra Cobb* to defeat incumbent Elise Stefanic. (Toss up)
New York 24 Dana Balter* to defeat incumbent John Katko. (Lean R) (Katko 51-40. 40-37) (Balter 48-46, 48-45, 47-46)
North Carolina 08. Patricia Timmons-Goodson to defeat. Inc Richard Hudson. (Lean R)
North Carolina 09. Cynthia Wallace to defeat incumbent Dan Bishop. (Likely R)
North Carolina 11 Morris Davis to defeat Madison Cawthorn in this Open Seat (Likely R)
Ohio 01 Kate Schroder to defeat Inc Steve Chabot (Schroder 50-46)
Pennsylvania 01 Christina Finello to defeat incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. (Toss up) (Fitzpatrick 47- 35, 53-39, 50-35) (Finello 40-38) (Tied 46-46)
Pennsylvania 10 Eugene DePasquale to defeat incumbent Scott Perry. (Lean R). September (DePasquale 50-46)
South Carolina 02 Adair Ford Boroughs to defeat incumbent Joe Wilson (Safe R)
Texas 02 Sima Ladjervardian to defeat incumbent Dan Crenshaw. (Likely R)
Texas 03 Lulu Seikaly to defeat Inc Van Taylor
Texas 10 Mike Siegel to defeat Inc Mike McCaul
Texas 17 Rick Kennedy to defeat Pete Sessions in an open Republican seat. August Sessions 45-42
Texas 21 Wendy Davis to defeat incumbent Chip Roy. (Toss up) (Davis 48-47) (Tied 46-46)
Texas 22 Sri Preston Kalkuri to defeat Troy Nehls for this open seat. (Tied 39-39)
Texas 23 Gina Ortiz Jones* to defeat Tony Gonzales for this open Republican seat. (Lean D)
Texas 24 Candace Valenzuela to defeat Beth Van Duyne for this open Republican seat. (Toss up)
Texas 25 Julie Oliver to defeat Inc Roger Williams (Williams 52-40)
Virginia 05 B. Cameron Webb to defeat Bob Good for this open Republican seat. (Lean R)
Washington 03 Carolyn Long to defeat incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler (Likely R)
Wisconsin 07 Tricia Zunker to defeat incumbent Tom Tiffany who won the May Special Election. (Solid R)