Check out the website:  Political Note #278   Sima Ladjervadian  TX CD 02, Political Note #229 Lizzie Fletcher TX CD 07, Political Note #314 Mike Siegel TX CD 10, Political Note #257 Wendy Davis TX CD 21, Political Note #277  Sri Preston Kulkari  TX CD 22, Political Note #241 Gina Ortiz Jones TX CD 23, Political Note #310 Candace Valenzuela, Political Note #271 Colin Allred  TX CD 32 plus two nearby toss up races:  Hiral Tipirneni AZ CD 06 Political Note #272, Xochitl Torres Small NM CD 02 Political Note #195.

Political Note #318   Lulu Seikaly TX CD 03

2020                            General election

Lulu Seikaly is running against Van Taylor, who is completing his first term.  In years past, that would been no big deal.  Democrats don’t get elected from TX 03.  Not for over 50 years.

Van Taylor has a perfect resume a contemporary Texas Republican.   Born in Dallas, a descendent of one of the founders of Humble Oil, he grew up in Midland. He went to the private Hillander School, the local junior high school and then to St. Paul’s in Concord, NH. His undergraduate school was Harvard from which he graduated in three years. After some time in at McKinsey, he joined Churchill Capital, an investment firm.

Don’t think of him as effete.  He was a Marine reservist and served in Iraq.  He led missions that detected and defeated potential Fedayeen ambushes.  He earned his medals and left the Marine Reserves as a Major.

His wife, Anne Coolidge Taylor, has similar business interests and a similar social background.  She attended the Chapin School on the Upper East Side of New York City  and then the Groton School in Groton, MA. She graduated from Harvard, received an MBA from Columbia Business School, founded the London office for WP Carey, moved to Texas when she was married and is the Managing Director for WP Carey investments Dallas office.

Van Taylor earned his political spurs.  He served a term in the Texas House of Representatives, served in the Texas Senate, and was elected, in 2018.  He could imagine a career in the House of Representatives representing this wealthy suburban district or greater opportunities.  It turns out, a career in TX 03 could be difficult.

Not so long ago, TX 03 was overwhelmingly Republican.  GW Bush carried the district in 2000 70-30.  Romney did almost as well, winning 63-34.  Congressional candidates reflected this pattern.  When there was a Democratic opponent, as in 2006, the Republican won 63-35 or in 2016 61-35. The margins became smaller. Trump’s win was only,55-41.  Van Taylor was elected in 2018 by only 54-44.

Could those margins disappear altogether?  A ten point victory is pretty solid.  But the district has changed. It is still wealthy.  Median income is over $95,000.  But (rounding up in all cases) it is only 60% White.  It is 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 10% Black.

The Cook Report describes TX 03 as a +13 Republican district.  But Democrats think they can win a seat there. Lulu Seikaly is the nominee. She would be the first Arab American elected to Congress from Texas. She led Sean McCaffity 45-44 in the Democratic primary.  The third place finisher, Tanner Do, a Vietnamese immigrant, endorsed Lulu Seikaly.  With that endorsement, she won the run off 61-39.

How do we get an Arab American as a serious challenger for one of Texas’s wealthiest districts?  For one of the of the country’s wealthiest districts still in Republican hands.   Odd isn’t it.  Democrats represent the 20 wealthiest districts in the country.  Lulu Seikaly, daughter of Lebanese immigrants, refugees really from the Lebanese Civil War, could be one of the faces of a new Texas.  She has made herself right at home.  She rarely uses her proper name Helane Seikaly,

Lulu Seikaly’s father is a doctor.  Her mother is a nurse.  Lulu Seikaly is a lawyer.  She went to Texas schools – a Catholic High School, an undergraduate at Southern Methodist, a law degree from South Texas College of Law.  She’s worked in the field of labor and employment law at Churchwell White in California and had a two year stint as an adjunct at the University of California, Davis School of Law

Lulu Seikaly has worked on campaigns before – a field coordinator for Bill White, former Mayor of Houston’s running for Governor of Texas in 2010.  Her political experience was enhanced working in Sacramento – California’s capital. Her ambition appears to be her own.

We get a 34 year old Arab American woman who could pass for left of center Democrat.  Lulu Seikaly is a left of center Democrat.  Ask her about Lebanon, she’ll tell you it was once the Paris of the Middle East.  Or she’ll tell you it was a place where her parents could not thrive because of the civil war.  Thank God for American where he parents could reinvent themselves.

Ask Lulu Seikaly about her politics, you’ll find she is for women making decisions about their health and their bodies.  She’s for common sense gun laws.  She identifies climate change as our biggest threat.  She describes a broken, cruel, and racist immigration system that needs fixing.  She see the green new deal as a step too far.  She is in Texas after all.

Lulu Seikaly is running against one of the most conservative Members of Congress in the House, a Congressman who has a million dollars to spend on the rest of the campaign.  She has just finished a primary and a run-off and only has $40,000.  She’s been busy. They say she raised a lot of money  in July and August.  Whatever she has raised, it is not enough.  She needs more.  Help her out.

DEMOCRAT INSURGENTS WITH POLL RESULTS WHERE I HAVE THEM – Lots of candidate worth supporting.  Where no recent poll is available, judgments are from the Cook Report

Alaska AK                         Alyce Galvin to defeat incumbent Don Young (Lean R) (Galvin 43-41, 43-42)

Arizona 06                        Hiral Tipirneni to defeat incumbent David Schweikert (Toss up)

Arkansas 02.                    Joyce Elliott to defeat incumbent French Hill (Likely R)

California 25.                    Christy Smith to defeat incumbent Mike Garcia who won the May special election. (Toss up) (Garcia 46-45, 48-41)

California 50                     Ammar Campa-Hajjar to defeat Darrell Issa for this open Rep seat (Likely R)

Colorado 03                      Diane Mitsch Bush to defeat Lauren Boebert for this open Rep seat (Mitch 43-42)

Florida 15                         Alan Cohn to defeat Scott Franklin for the open Republican seat. (Lean R)

Florida 16                         Margaret Good to defeat incumbent Vern Buchanan. (Likely R) (Buchanan 51-35, 53-33)

Georgia 07                       Carolyn Bordeaux to defeat Rich McCormick for this open Republican seat. (Lean D)

Illinois 13                          Betsy Dirksen Londrigen* to defeat incumbent Rodney Davis (Londrigan 43-41)

Indiana 05                        Christina Hale to defeat Victoria Spartz for this open Republican seat (Hale 47-40, 50-45, 51-45)  (Spatz 47-40)

Iowa 02                             Rita Hart to defeat Marienette Miller-Meeks for this open seat (Toss-up)

Iowa 04                            JD Scholten to defeat Randy Feenstra for this open seat (Likely R)

Kansas 02                        Michelle De La Isla to defeat Jacob La Turner for this open Republican seat (Likely R)

Michigan 03.                    Hillary Scholten to defeat Peter Meijer for this open Republican  seat (Likely R)

Michigan 06                     Jon Hoadley to defeat incumbent Fred Upton (Lean R)

Minnesota 01                   Dan Feehan* to defeat incumbent Jim Hagedorn (Hagedorn 41-38)

Missouri 02                      Jill Schupp to defeat incumbent Ann Wagner (Toss up)

Montana AL                     Kathleen Williams to defeat Matt Rosendale for this open Republican seat (Lean R) August Tied 44-44, Rosendale 51-45, July Tied 44-44, Rosendale 49-47,

Nebraska 01                    State Senator Kate Bolz to defeat incumbent Jeff Fortenberry (Safe R)

Nebraska 02.                   Kara Eastman to defeat incumbent Don Bacon (Toss up) (Schupp 48-45)

New Jersey 02                Amy Kennedy to defeat incumbent Jeff Van Drew (Kennedy 46-45, 51-46)

New York 01                    Nancy Goroff to defeat. Incumbent Lee Zeldin. (Lean R) (Goroff 48-46) (Zeldin 47-42, 47-40)

New York 02                    Jackie Gordon to defeat Andrew Garbarino for this open Republican seat. (Toss up)

New York 21                    Tedra Cobb* to defeat incumbent Elise Stefanic. (Toss up)

New York 24                    Dana Balter* to defeat incumbent John Katko. (Lean R) August (Katko 51-40)(Balter 48-46) July (Katko (40-37) June (Balter 48-45, 47-46)

North Carolina 08.           Patricia Timmons-Goodson to defeat. Inc Richard Hudson. (Lean R)

North Carolina 09.           Cynthia Wallace to defeat incumbent Dan Bishop. (Likely R)

North Carolina 11            Morris Davis to defeat Madison Cawthorn in this Open Seat (Likely R)

Ohio 01                            Kate Schroder to defeat Inc Steve Chabot

Pennsylvania 01              Christina Finello to defeat incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. (Toss up) (Fitzpatrick 47- 35, 53-39, 50-35) Finello 40-38) (Tied 46-46)

Pennsylvania 10              Eugene DePasquale to defeat incumbent Scott Perry. (Lean R)

Texas 02                         Sima Ladjervardian to defeat incumbent Dan Crenshaw. (Likely R)

Texas 03                         Lulu Seikaly to defeat Inc Van Taylor

Texas 10                        Mike Siegel to defeat Inc Mike McCaul

Texas 17                        Rick Kennedy to defeat Pete Sessions in an open Republican seat. August Sessions 45-42

Texas 21                         Wendy Davis to defeat incumbent Chip Roy. (Toss up) (August: Tied 46-46)

Texas 22                         Sri Preston Kalkuri to defeat Troy Nehls for this open seat. (Tied 39-39)

Texas 23                          Gina Ortiz Jones* to defeat Tony Gonzales for this open Republican seat. (Lean D)

Texas 24                          Candace Valenzuela to defeat Beth Van Duyne for this open Republican seat. (Toss up)

Virginia 05                       B. Cameron Webb to defeat Bob Good for this open Republican seat. (Lean R)

Washington 03                 Carolyn Long to defeat incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler (Likely R)

Wisconsin 07                   Tricia Zunker to defeat incumbent Tom Tiffany who won the May Special Election. (Solid R)