Look at the recent Daily Bits on the website. Ya Gotta Believe, February Summary
022920 Political Note #273 Harold (Howie) Hayes PA HD 18
2020 Special Election Lost 55-44
Pennsylvania Democrats want to flip the state legislature from Red to Blue. To start, they want to elect Harold (Howie) Hayes https://www.hayesforpa.com/ to PA HD 18 in a special election of March 17. Will that transform Pennsylvania?
In November, 2019, Virginia flipped its House and Senate from Red to Blue. Democrats gained control of both the House of Delegates and the Assembly. Virginia already had a Democratic executive. What changed as a result?
The new legislature took office in January. The world apparently doesn’t change by magic wand. It takes a while. Take a look.
The Virginia legislative bodies look different. The Speaker of the House is Eileen Filler-Corn. She is the first Jewish Speaker and the first woman. In the Senate, L. Louise Lucas was elected president pro tempore, the first African American woman to hold the second highest office in the Senate. In the House, seven of the fourteen committees are chaired by African Americans. Women are approximately one third of the legislators. Some of the changes aren’t as visible to the naked eye. Many more legislators from the suburbs of Washington DC now have power.
Has Virginia actually changed? Since the beginning of January? The legislature still has brief sessions – 60 days. The Governor made proposals. The legislature acted or didn’t act.
- Pass the Equal Rights Amendment to the US Constitution
- That happened.
- Pass criminal justice reform including the decriminalization of marijuana
- A little bit happened
- Increase the minimum wage
- No action yet
- Fund tuition free community colleges for low and moderate income residents
- More of an emphasis on paying community college instructors better
- Provide substantial financial support for addressing environmental issues
- Formed a permanent committee.
- Provide substantial financial support for early childhood education
- Studying it.
- The governor didn’t say anything about voting rights
- The legislature expanded some and is working on others.
Can Democrats in Pennsylvania flip the House? And what would happen if they did? Democrats need to flip 9 seats in the 199 member House of Representatives to gain control. If Democrats can elect Harold (Howie) Hayes in the Special Election scheduled for March 17 to PA HD 18 the number to be flipped in November would be reduced to 8. The Special Election will happen in about two weeks. If you want to help, help now.
PA HD 18 is northeast of Philadelphia in the southwestern corner of Bucks County. It is the only legislative district in Pennsylvania to be exactly coterminous with a town – the town of Bensalem. The district is about 85% white. The rest is evenly divided between African Americans and Hispanics. Getting Harold (Howie) Hayes to be the Democratic nominee was not automatic.
The Bensalem Democrats nominated Rachel Fingles, a Director of the Bensalem School Board – a single mom and an attorney. Democrats on the School Board had a tough go in 2018, losing four of the five contested seats. The County Board overruled the Bensalem Democrats to name Harold (Howie) Hayes as the Democratic candidate. Bensalem Democrats seem resigned to the decision, convinced that the County Committee selected the Democratic candidate most likely to raise enough money to win the special election.
Harold (Howie) Hayes is not wealth on his own. He is a Master Plumber. He ran his own business and closed his business during the Great Recession. Now he works through his union membership. The union will back him.
Unions are not his only political connection. His mom was a Democratic committee member. From his earliest days, he accompanied his mother going door to door collecting signatures to put people on the ballot or leafleting to get out the vote. His mother is a part of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. The Party will back him. In fact, the Party is giving this race a national focus.
If Democrats get control of the Pennsylvania House? Gradual change. Except in one area. Redistricting. Congressional and state legislative districts will change after the 2020 election. The composition of the legislature will be a factor in that change.
There has already been one change. The Pennsylvania State Supreme Court found the gerrymandered Pennsylvania Congressional districts violated the Pennsylvania constitution and redrew district lines. In 2018, Pennsylvania changed from sending Congress 13 Republicans and 5 Democrats to sending 9 from each party. A Democratic voice in redistricting is a big deal. A Democratic House gives them that voice. Help elect Harold (Howie) Hayes https://www.hayesforpa.com/ . Start the November election in Pennsylvania now.
The Organization Sister City has identified state legislatures to flip, hold, and to make inroads in. Consider giving money to the Democratic State Committees in each of these states or to the DLCC, the national Democratic Party’s committee for creating Democratic State Houses.
Target — Blue Flips:
- Arizona Senate & House
- Not gerrymandered. Has a non-partisan commission to draw boundaries.
- Senators serve two year terms.
- Senate: 17 Republicans, 13 Democrats.
- House: 31 Republicans, 29 Democrats.
- Michigan House
- Badly gerrymandered by Republicans. A popular referendum created a non-partisan commission to draw boundaries after 2020. It will do so unless the Michigan legislature undoes the popular vote.
- House: 58 Republicans, 51 Democrats, 1 Vacancy.
- Minnesota Senate
- Not gerrymandered. Common Cause attributes that to neither party having had control of the government.
- Senators serve one two-year term and two four-tear terms each decade.
- Senate: 35 Republicans, 32 Democrats
- North Carolina Senate & House
- Badly and stubbornly gerrymandered by Republicans. Democratic dominated state supreme court has sought to change that.
- Senators are elected every two years.
- Senate: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats
- House: 64 Republicans, 55 Democrats, 1 Vacancy
- Pennsylvania Senate & House
- Badly gerrymandered by Republicans. Pennsylvania State Supreme Court has already changed Congressional District gerrymandering
- Senators have four year terms. Half of the Senate is up for election every two years.
- Senate: 28 Republicans, 21 Democrats, 1 independent
- House: 107 Republicans, 92 Democrats, 4 vacancies.
- Texas Senate & House
- Gerrymandered by Republicans. No relief in sight.
- Senators serve one two-year term and two four-year terms each decade.
- Senate 19 Republicans, 12 Democrat
- House: 83 Republicans, 67 Democrats
Target — Blue Hold:
- Colorado Senate
- Some gerrymandering. Recently passed constitutional amendment creates independent commission to draw state legislature and congressional boundaries.
- Senators serve Four year terms. Half the Senate is up for election every two years.
- 19 Democrats, 16 Republicans
Target — Blue Inroads:
- Florida Senate & House
- Moderately gerrymandered in favor of Republicans despite independent commission and state constitutional prohibition against gerrymandering
- Senators serve one two-year term and two four-year terms each decade.
- Senate: 23 Republicans, 17 Democrats
- House: 73 Republicans 47 Democrats
- Georgia Senate & House
- Gerrymandered by Republicans. No relief in sight.
- Senators serve two year terms.
- Senate: 34 Republicans, 21 Democrats
- House: 105 Republicans, 74 Democrats
- Wisconsin Assembly (House)
- Gerrymandered by Republicans. No relief in sight.
- House: 63 Republicans, 36 Democrats
