2018 General Election Elected 53 — 47

A Culture War

Three Minnesota toss ups, three neighbors.  MN 01, 02, and 03.  MN 02 is the one with a culture war.  Angie Craig https://www.angiecraig.com/is one of the warriors.  The current Congressman, Republican Jason Lewis, is the other. He was first elected in 2016, beating Angie Craig. By a pointCan Angie Craig win this time?

Jason Lewis had been a Conservative talk show host.  He specialized in being offensive.  He described women critics as ignorant of GOP values, explaining (some would say mansplaining) that the government should protect corporations and religious beliefs when it comes to health care. Among Lewis’ comments:  “If you don’t want to own a slave, don’t. But don’t tell other people they can’t.”  He explained he was being sarcastic in defense of states rights.  He has continued his support of the Confederacy, suggesting that we should make it easier for states to leave the Union

Maybe Angie Craig could have won in 2016.  Some Democrats think she could have run a better campaign.  The 2016 campaign had a personal element. 

Married to a woman, Angie Craig is an advocate for women’s issues. 

In 2016, Craig had to address adopting a child into a same sex relationship.  Originally from Arkansas, she was living with a long-term partner in Tennessee.  They could not adopt as a couple in Tennessee then.One of them could adopt.

The child’s mother wanted them to adopt and Tennessee gave great weight to the adoption preferences of a birth mother.  The mother’s homophobic parents objected, coerced their daughter into changing her mind.  Then the birth mother changed her mind again. 

Angie Craig and her partner won the law suit.  Time and distance would help. They moved to London, then to Minnesota.  Craig had to talk publicly for the first time about this searing experience in the 2016 campaign.

Can Angie Craig win this time? 

The culture war is still there.  On different topics. Angie Craig, running in the suburbs south of Minneapolis and St. Paul, advocates changes in gun laws to make us safer.  That is not what Lewis advocates. 

Can Angie Craig win this time?

Craig’s goal is to run a straightforward campaign.  Her website tells her story — up from poverty in Arkansas.  Mostly, though, the website focuses on issues.  Fourteen of them:

  • Ensure that the economic recovery reaches more people.
  • Support small businesses and entrepreneurs through, for instance, easier access to capital.
  • Invest in American infrastructure.
  • Make sure healthcare is affordable and work towards universal health care.
  • Stop the opioid epidemic by funding rehabilitation and recovery
  • Fund public education and make college education and specialized training affordable
  • Care for veterans by finding work for them and improving the VA
  • Protect the environment, slow climate change by relying more on energy that does not come from fossil fuel.
  • Protect the US by relying more on diplomacy, rebuilding our relationship with allies, while keeping a strong military.
  • Strengthen social security and Medicare to protect seniors.
  • Protect farms and farmers through crop insurance, but also by ensuring that programs like infrastructure improvements help rural areas.
  • Reduce the impact of money in politics by overturning Citizens United.
  • Empower women and families by ensuring that women have opportunities and have control over their health care.
  • Support common sense gun control by lifting the ban on the CDC doing research on the effect of guns, ensuring universal background checks, and more.

Can Angie Craig win this time?

Her opponent has a different kind of focus.  His current website includes two parts:  Meet Jason, Contribute to Jason.  I have seen a different website.  Perhaps it was from 2016.  It was filled with vituperative comments about Angie Craig.

Can Angie Craig win this time?

Notwithstanding the culture wars, Angie Craig is a mainstream candidate.  She was head of human resources for a large corporation.  Her most recent non-political job was head of communications for St. Judes (a familiar name to those who give to medical charities).  The divide in the Democratic Party has largely to do with economic issues, how to work with corporations.   Angie Craig, like others who share her perspective, is comfortable with large corporations.  (In my opinion, the Democratic Party needs both sides in this distinctly Democratic culture war. The goal is to elect Democrats committed to a better life and to fairness for all — comfortable with corporations or not.)

Can Angie Craig win this time? 

She probably can. Even running against an incumbent.  She only lost by a point in 2016.  Some kind of Democratic wave is developing for 2018.  The wave should be big enough to wash away one point, even against an incumbent, even in a race that pundits describe as a toss up.  There is one way we can help candidates win in 2018.  We can help them with donations.  Consider Angie Craig https://www.angiecraig.com/  We need her in Congress.

 

May 8 Primary Implications. US Senate:  Democrats need a net increase of two seats to gain control of the Senate.  They really can’t afford to lose any seats.Indiana: The Republican primary winner was State Senator Mike Braun, who beat two Republican Congressmen. Braun might be the toughest possible opponent for Democrat Joe Donnelly, who is one of the four most vulnerable Democratic Senators.West Virginia: The Republican primary winner, with only 35% of the vote, was state Attorney General Patrick Morrissey.  He will be a tough opponent for Democrat Joe Manchin who is another of the four most vulnerable Democratic Senators. Ohio: The Republican primary winner was Businessman Jim Renacci.  Democrat Sherrod Brown is vulnerable, but not as vulnerable as the other two Senators whose opponents were identified on May 8.

Governors:This is an open seat because the Republican governor was term limited.  Democrat Richard Cordray, former head of the Consumer Protection Bureau and Elizabeth Warren favorite, won the primary with 62% of the vote.  Republican Mike DeWine, former US Senator, won his primary with 60% of the vote.  They have faced each other in a state wide election once before. Dewine won by a close margin.US Congress: Democrats are generally seen as having a better chance to take control of the House of Representatives than the Senate.  Here are some seats that could flip.Indiana:IN 02  Businessman Mel Hall won his primary with 47% of the vote.  He has resources and a chance to defeat incumbent “Wacky” Jacky Walorski who got 79% of the vote in her primary.IN 03  Marketing Consultant Courtney Tritch won her primary with 79% of the vote.  She has campaign skills as she attempts to oust a Republican incumbent in a Republican district.IN 09 Labor lawyer Liz Watson won her primary by 66% is running against a Republican incumbent in a Republican district who won his primary with 78% of the vote. North Carolina:NC 09 Democratic businessman and veteran Dan McCready’s fair chance to flip a Republican seat got better after his 82% primary victory and the Republican incumbent’s loss to pastor and same sex marriage opponent Mark Harris, who got 49% of the primary vote.NC 13 Democratic philanthropist Kathy Manning won her primary with 70% of the vote.  With twice as much money on hand as incumbent Ted Budd, she has a real chance to flip this seat.NC 02 A less likely, but possible flip is former teacher, member of the general assembly, and state human resources director Linda Coleman who defeated a much better funded primary opponent, gaining 52% of the vote.  Incumbent George Holding gained 76% of the vote in his primary.

 

Ohio:Two seats where Democrats are particularly optimisticOH 01 Popular for cleaning up the Clerk of Courts office AftabPureval had no primary opponent as he prepares to run against a Republican incumbent.OH 12 County Recorder Danny O’Connor won with 40% of the vote in a primary with many contestants.  He has a good shot at defeating Republican primary winner Troy Balderson whose 29% of the vote was enough to win the Republican primary with even more candidates. This is an open, formerly Republican seat.Other seats where Democrats have some optimismOH 14  Attorney Betsy Rader has raised enough money to compete against an incumbent.OH 16  Healthcare businesswoman Democrat Susan Moran Palmer won with 35% of the vote and will face ex football player Anthony Gonzalez who received 53% of the vote in the Republican primary.OH 05 Michael Galbraith, OH 06 Shawna Roberts, OH 07 Ken Harbaugh, 0H 10 Theresa Gasper could each make a case for their chances of winning a Republican seat.West Virginia:WV 03  Democratic State Senator Richard Ojeda has a chance.  20,000 more Democrats voted in this primary than Republicans did in their primary for this open seat.  Ojeda gained 52% of the vote.  Republican House Majority Leader Carol Miller won her primary with 24% of the vote.