March 15th , 2026 Len’s Political Note #797 Seth Bodnar Montana US Senate
2026 General Election
Here is a phenomenon. Maybe even a movement. Independent candidates for the US Senate who could win. Independent candidates for the US Senate who could defeat Republicans in states where Democrats are unlikely to win.
Look at the list
Seth Bodnar Montana Straight white male Lt. Colonel
Todd Achilles Idaho Straight white male Tank Platoon Commander
Dan Osborn Nebraska Straight white male Navy Ship’s Serviceman
Brian Bengs So Dakota Straight white male AF Lt. Col.
Ty Pinkins Mississippi Straight Black male Ch Warrant. Officer 3
These are not the only independent candidates running for the US Senate. They are the ones who have attracted notice. Two of the men on the list above have run for office – once. Ty Pinkins and Dan Osborn each ran for the US Senate in 2024. Pinkins, running as a Democrat, lost 63-37 and could erode the already slim possibility of the Black Democratic nominee being elected in 2026. Dan Osborn, running as an independent, though the Democrats did not field a candidate, lost 53-47 and has a chance to win the election in 2026.
The four new independent candidates capable of causing a stir are straight white men with military service. They each play to the conventional American idea of what a leader should be like. Their candidacies reflect American cowboy individualism even if their political vision is closer to what a mainstream Democrat unencumbered by Party or a moderate Republican unencumbered by Trump might see.
The combination of individualism in their candidacy and a political vision with which most Americans would be comfortable could be a factor in flipping Republican Senate seats. Len’s Political Notes has already urged support for Dan Osborn and Brian Bengs. See Len’s Political Notes #765 and #774. Today, I urge you to support Seth Bodnar.
Seth Bodnar has stepped down from his position as President of the University of Montana to enter the US Senate race. That Senate race was upended recently. The incumbent Republican, whose term was ending, announced his retirement minutes before Montana’s filing deadline. Steve Daines’ preferred replacement was ready to act. Former US Attorney Kurt Alme filed as a Republican to replace Steve Daines.
Leading Republicans who might have been interested in running for the US Senate had the best reason to be angry. A good example of someone in that category is Al Olszewski, former state legislator who had recently announced his candidacy for a House of Representatives seat.
Democrats were angry, too. Their anger was convenient and principled. The candidate switch made election of a Democrat to the US Senate from Montana more likely rather than less. The New York Times quoted a Montana Democrat calling this a “last minute shenanigan.” The angriest Democrat was probably Reilly Neill, the leading Democratic candidate for the US Senate nomination. Born in Dublin, Ireland, she married into Montana political royalty. Her husband, Bradley Snow, is the son of former US Treasurer John Snow and the great grandson of the progressive Montana Democratic US Senator Burton Wheeler. Steve Daines’ manipulation has served, for Reilly Neill, as a perfect example of Republican bad behavior. So far, she had not been able to raise much money or gain much traction for her campaign. Whether the great switch will help her is hard to know. Seth Bodnar’s candidacy may get in the way of her ability to raise money.
Seth Bodnar is the greatest beneficiary of the Republican switch. Instead of running against an incumbent Republican Senator, he is running against the guy who was part of a bait and switch imposed on Montana voters. The switch was not a surprise to everyone. Daines and Alme got Donald Trump’s buy in. The got the support of Montana’s Republican governor, whose budget director Alme had been in the past, and the support of Montana’s other US Senator. Along with the rest of Montana’s voters, Seth Bodnar was surprised.
Seth Bodnar was born and grew up in Franklin, Pennsylvania, not far from Oil City in the western part of the state. Oil City is closer to Pittsburgh than it is to Cleveland, but not that much closer. His parents were both educators and did a good job educating their son. After high school, he went to West Point.
West Point was one of several great learning experience sites that took Seth Bodnar beyond his western Pennsylvania home. He has described West Point as a leadership academy, one of the great places to learn how to be a leader. First in his class at West Point, he was named a Rhodes Scholar.
Oxford University provided three important experiences for him. He got a Master’s Degree in Economics and Social History – the kind of program where someone planning to be a professional economist would get training. He got another Master’s Degree – this one in Comparative Social Policy. He studied the diverse health, labor, and income support policies in various European countries as well as the theoretical basis for these programs. A Senator with training as an economist with a further understanding of how nations can achieve the best for their people is well prepared.
Seth Bodnar’s third impactful experience as a Rhodes Scholar was meeting his future wife. Chelsea Elander had done her future husband one better. She won both a Rhodes Scholarship and a Truman Scholarship. With plans to be a pediatrician, one of her more memorable experiences in high school was confronting her chemistry teacher who had declared that women did not have the mental outlook to become scientists. A practical sort, Chelsea Erlander chose Montana State for college over Stanford or Dartmouth in anticipation of needing funds for medical school later. Eventually, she brought her husband back to Montana.
Seth Bodnar probably did not learn much at Oxford that was helpful in Iraq. In Iraq, though, he learned to keep calm under fire – a valuable skill, he explained, for a University President. It was different in Iraq than facing protesters in Montana, he added. In Iraq they were trying to kill him. There he commanded a detachment of Special Forces and, ultimately, was assigned to Baghdad where he was Special Assistant to the Commanding General in Iraq. When he returned to the states, he taught economics at West Point.
If Seth Bodnar learned something new after leaving active service in 2011, it was the existence and character of the corporate sector. He became a senior executive at General Electric’s transportation division and helped oversee the use of digital technology for GE’s trains.
There was no opportunity more appealing for Seth and Chelsea Bodnar than the University of Montana. Chelsea Bodnar brought her husband and children to what she understood to be home. Her husband, Seth Bodnar, would have a truly new experience as a university president.
Two things stood out for me in my review of Seth Bodnar’s experience as university president. One was his expeditious settlement of a sex discrimination lawsuit. Rather than continue the fight, despite a kind of audit by a Boston law firm that gave the university high marks on the issue, the University agreed on $350,000 compensation which, after legal fees were paid, came to less than $2,000 for each of the 18 complainants. The judge dismissed the suit with prejudice preventing further law suits on the matter.
The other was Seth Bodnar’s approach to change. He expressed disdain for lengthy studies that sit on shelves. Instead, after hiring permanent senior staff, he and they focused on five points of improvement, recognized that improvements came gradually, and kept track of the extent to which they did actually bring about change in the university. One example of change was a substantial increase in enrollment of Native Americans at the University of Montana.
Why the run for the US Senate? At 47 years old, Seth Bodnar is a young man. There are worlds to conquer. He had a new Montana friend who urged him to take the risk – former US Senator Jon Tester. Well before Senator Steve Daines was planning his escape from the Senate, Jon Tester was encouraging Seth Bodnar to take the steps needed to join that exclusive club and run as an independent. The Republicans were Montana’s establishment even though, over the past 20 years, Democrats, including Tester, had some success. From Tester’s perspective, being a Democratic candidate was a burden. Montanans had become alienated from the Democratic Party. Perhaps they have never quite recovered from Ronald Reagan’s glorification of cowboy individualism. Perhaps the celebration of diversity was unpersuasive in parts of the country that were not particularly diverse.
Seth Bodnar has formally announced his candidacy as an independent. The circumstances associated with the Steve Daines/Kurt Alme switch have given Seth Bodnar a boost. DONATE. Elect Seth Bodnar Senator from Montana
To explore the changes in the demographics of Democratic candidates, look at the Democrats seeking reelection to the US Senate in 2026
John Hickenlooper Colorado Straight white male did not serve
Chris Coons Delaware Straight white male did not serve
Jon Ossoff Georgia Straight white male did not serve
Ed Markey Mass. Straight white male Army Spec 4
Corey Booker NJ Straight Black male did not serve
Ben Ray Lujan NM Straight Hispanic male did not serve
Jeff Merkley Oregon Straight white male did not serve
Jack Reed RI Straight white male Army Major
Mark Warner Virginia Straight white male did not serve
Now look at the demographics of the front running candidates in each state. I have not made distinctions between candidates who are probable general election winners, toss ups, and unlikely general election winners.
Dakarai Larriett Alabama Straight Black male did not serve
Mary Peltola Alaska Straight Native Am female did not serve
Hallie Shoffner Arkansas Straight white female did not serve
Alex Vindman Florida Straight white Im male Army Lt. Col.
R.Krishnamoorthi Illinois Straight So Asian im male did not serve
Zach Wahls Iowa LGBTQ white male did not serve
Erik Murray Kansas Straight Black male did not serve
Charles Booker Kentucky Straight Black male did not serve
Jamie Davis Louisiana Straight Black male did not serve
Graham Platner Maine Straight white male US Marine
Haley Stevens Michigan Straight white female did not serve
Peggy Flanagan Minnesota Straight Native Am female did not serve
Scott Colom Mississippi Straight Black male did not serve
Chris Pappas NH LGBTQ white male did not serve
Roy Cooper NC Straight white male did not serve
Sherrod Brown Ohio Straight white male did not serve
Troy W Green Oklahoma Straight white male did not serve
James Talarico Texas Straight white male did not serve
In some states, it is hard to identify the Democratic candidates let alone the front runners. I left Tennessee and West Virginia off the list above altogether. Iowa’s Zach Wahls is a member of the LGBTQ community because he is the son of a Lesbian couple and an advocate for the LGBTQ community. In order to make the list fit on a single line, “Im” stands for an immigrant, someone born outside the US.
I identified front runners by leads in the polls. Where there were no polls, I identified front runners by leads in the money race. There was an exception. In southern states where the demographic of the Democratic primary voters is largely Black, if there are no polls and a Black candidate is a close second in the financial race, I identified him or her as the front runner.
Democrats should celebrate the diversity of their candidates for the US Senate. Let’s work, not only for that diversity, but toward making the diversity so normal that, in all states, the voting public does not think twice about it.
