February 21st, 2026 Len’s Political Note #791 Alexander Vindman Florida US Senate
2026 General Election
His twin brother Eugene is the Congressman from Maryland. Alexander Vindman was the whistleblower. Eugene the advisor.
They were born in Kiev to a Jewish family. In 1979, after their mother’s death, their father brought the twins and their older brother Leonid (Len) to the United States. Unless our constitution is changed, none of them are eligible to become President of the United States. Nevertheless, the United States of America is their homeland. They have been here since early childhood.
The Vindman boys grew up in Brighton Beach — a distinctive part of the United States. Unlike any place else in the United States. Unlike any place else in the state of New York. Brighton Beach Is unlike anyplace else in New York City — now and when the Vindman boys were growing up. Russian or Ukrainian is the first language for a huge number of people there. For one-third of the people currently living in Community District 13 (Coney Island and Brighton Beach} Russian was their first language. The neighborhood’s city councilor is Inna Vernikov, a Republican. Michael ‘Misha’ Novakhov is the Member of the State Assembly from the area. He is a Republican. Alexander Vindman and his brothers grew up speaking Ukrainian, Russian, and English.
Alexander Vindman attended a local public high school, the Franklin Delano Roosevelt. In the school’s Wikipedia page, he is listed as one of a very few notable alums. From FDR, he went on to SUNY Binghamton. In 1998, he graduated with a major in history and completed the ROTC program at Cornell.
Alexander Vindman remained in the army for 21 years, far beyond his ROTC obligation. He did not fight from behind a desk, at least not initially. Through training, he earned the Ranger Tab. He was also trained as a parachutist. Primarily, he was trained to be in the infantry.
After time in Korea, in 2004, Alexander Vindman was sent to Iraq where he earned a purple heart after his Humvee was hit by an IED. In a 2022 interview, while a Pritzker Fellow, a different Humvee incident served as a central part of his story. He was discussing the importance of following your instinct (the sense of what to do based on your accumulated experience) and the tension between allowing your subordinates to exercise their judgment and the capacity of American officers to assess risk and to act on that assessment. His driver wanted to push forward. Alexander Vindman thought not. They continued forward and got stuck in the mud, actually sank into the mud. It took, he recalled, the battalion’s substantial equipment to pull the Humvee out. Had they been unable to, Alexander Vindman would have been obliged financially for the cost of the lost vehicle.
This incident was an example crucial to his developing thoughts about the success or failure of an army. He had made a negative risk assessment based on the best kind of judgment, the informal kind. He was willing to let a subordinate take the lead. Usually a good idea, he believed, though the risk-taking turned out badly in this instance. Fear of taking risks was what led, not so much to military failure, he had come to think, but to stagnation.
Alexander Vindman moved on. In 2010, he went to Harvard where he earned a Master’s in International Relations. After graduation, as the military paid attention to his degree and his languages, he became an attache in Russia. In 2018, he became the Director for European Affairs at Donald Trump’s White House, supporting the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
It was in that role, as we all know, Alexander Vindman took risks of his own. He says his actions drew on every bit of his background — his values, his training, his situational awareness including the unique training he got as an attache resisting interrogations, and what he called little skills or sub skills that prepared him for something that nobody has ever experienced in quite the same way.
We all know that he was part of the telephone call between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in which the US President proposed that the Ukrainian President open a corruption investigation into Hunter Biden and, by implication, his father. The price of rejecting that investigation was the $400 million dollars of military aid due to Ukraine. Trump’s quid pro quo was illegal. Alexander Vindman consulted, as he should have, with the National Security Council’s Legal Advisor and Senior Ethics Official; his twin brother Eugene.
Eugene Vidman consulted with the senior attorney for the NSC, initially about whether they were representing the President of the United States or the individual in that role and second, whether Donald Trump had violated the laws against bribery and foreign corrupt practices. When Congress was informed of the contents of that telephone call, that information led to a formal inquiry and ultimately to the impeachment of President Donald Trump in the House of Representatives for abuse of power and, because he had directed officials to ignore subpoenas, obstruction of Congress. Donald Trump was not removed from office in the trial in the Senate.
In July, 2020, Alexander Vindman retired from the military. His promotion to Colonel delayed and his career in the military no longer promising. In his opening statement before the House committee considering impeachment, a statement which Eugene helped him prepare, he assured their father that he had done the right thing in moving to the United States: “In Russia, my act of … offering public testimony involving the President would surely cost me my life. I am grateful for my father’s brave act of hope 40 years ago and for the privilege of being an American citizen and public servant, where I can live free of fear for mine and my family’s safety. Dad, my sitting here today, in the US Capitol talking to our elected officials is proof that you made the right decision forty years ago to leave the Soviet Union and come here to United States of America in search of a better life for our family. Do not worry, I will be fine for telling the truth.”
After leaving the military, Alexander Vindman wrote a memoir “Here, Right Matters.” He completed a doctorate in International Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, became a Pritzker Military Fellow at the Lawfare Institute in Washington, DC while also serving as a Senior Fellow at Johns Hopkins. In 2023, he became a Senior Fellow at the Kennedy School at Harvard University (in case you are making a list of reasons why Donald Trump hates Harvard).
As best I can tell, Alexander Vindman moved to Florida in 2022 or 2023. In 2022, he founded and has been serving as Director of the Institute for Informed American Leadership. So far, Florida Republicans have not questioned Alexander Vindman’s residency. His announcement comes too late for any fund raising to have been included in the FEC information about funds raised through December 31. He did announce he had raised $1.7 million in response to his announcement.
Presuming that Florida Democrats nominate Alexander Vindman for the US Senate, he will be running against Ashley Moody, the former Florida Attorney General who Governor Ron DeSantis appointed to take the place of Marco Rubio. The 2026 election is for the two years needed to complete Marco Rubio’s term of office.
Ashley Moody has a BS, MS, and JD from the University of Florida. She also has an LLM from Stetson. She will be a “tough out” for Alexander Vindman.
As national a figure as he may be, she is local. From a family of judges. Her brother, James S Moody III is a state circuit court judge in a circuit that includes Tampa. Her father, James S. Moody Jr, was also an elected state circuit court judge based in Tampa. Moody Jr was appointed by President Bill Clinton as a federal district court judge. Ashley Moody’s grandfather, James S. Moody Sr. was a circuit court judge in that same Tampa-based circuit. James Sr.’s father, Thomas Edwin Moody was born in Tennessee, died in North Carolina. He was not a judge, but he was buried in Plant City, Florida not far from Tampa – where his son, grandson, and great grandson and great granddaughter made names for themselves in the law.
Ashley Moody rebelled against her family’s heritage in one important respect. Though she became a lawyer like so many in her family, in 1998, 22 years old, Ashley Moody switched parties. She became a Republican. As a Republican, she was appointed an assistant US Attorney. As a Republican she ran for and was elected to Florida’s 13th Judicial Circuit Court – the one that includes Tampa.
She departed from her family’s past behavior in one other important way. In 2017, she resigned from the circuit court in order to run for state-wide office. In 2018, she was elected Florida’s Attorney General. After Marco Rubio resigned from his position as US Senator in order to accept Donald Trump’s appointment of him as Secretary of State, Governor Ron DeSantis appointed her to the United States Senate.
Alexander Vindman will find her tough to defeat unless the people of Florida find her too extreme. Consider for yourself how extreme she has been.
- In 2022, in 2023, and in 2024, as Attorney General, she fought to prevent a proposed referendum on the legalization of recreational marijuana from coming before the people of Florida. She succeeded in 2022 and 2023. The referendum received 56% of the vote in 2024, but that was not enough. Florida’s constitution requires a 60% vote by the people to pass a referendum.
- In 2018, Ashley Moody unsuccessfully opposed a referendum which would restore the vote to felons after they left jail. She and the governor pressed the Florida legislature to make restoration of the vote contingent on those who got out of jail paying fines and court fees that had accumulated. When Michael Bloomfield, LeBron James, Michael Jordan and others raised $16 million to pay those fees, Ashley Moody asked the FBI and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to investigate whether Bloomfield had violated election laws. The consequence was an increase in those eligible to vote, but by only a small percentage of those who had been incarcerated.
- 2020 election litigation and action
- Along with 14 other Attorneys General, Ashley Moody joined Texas in asking the Supreme Court to overturn the presidential election results in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The Supreme Court rejected consideration of the appeal on the grounds that Texas lacked standing to dispute how other states counted their votes.
- She was a member of the Board of Directors of the Rule of Law Defense Fund, whose representatives encouraged the group that had gathered in front of the capitol to stop the counting of electoral ballots. After that mob stormed the Capitol Building with exactly that purpose in mind, Ashley Moody, either out of embarrassment or political calculation erased any mention of the Rule of Law Defense Fund from her online bio.
- In 2021, as Florida’s Attorney General, Ashley Moody sued unsuccessfully the CDC for requiring 95% of any cruise ship seeking to leave port to be vaccinated against Covid-19.
- In 2024, as Florida’s Attorney General, she sought unsuccessfully to persuade the Florida Supreme Court to prohibit a statewide referendum protecting the right to an abortion because the descriptive language for the referendum was misleading. The constitutional amendment received 57% of the vote, but did not reach the mandated 60% for passage.
- In 2025, as a Senator from Florida, she was one of the 50 Senators that voted for the Big Beautiful Bill which, among other things cut Medicaid drastically and increased the cost for many who received their health insurance through the Affordable Care Act. Three Republican Senators opposed the law creating a tie that the Vice President broke. Had any of the Republicans, including Ashley Moody, who voted yes cast their vote differently, the bill would have failed.
Alexander Vindman has had a late start, but a lot of people know who he is. At the end of December, Ashly Moody had $5.1 million available for her campaign. A competitive Democratic campaign in the third largest state in the country will need candidates who raises well over $50 million. There is time for Alexander Vindman to catch up. DONATE to his campaign. Because Alexander Vindman entered this campaign, the pundit website Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. I would move it farther along the spectrum that that.
Other Florida campaigns
Governor: Two admirable Democratic candidates are running — Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and former Republican Congressman David Jolly. One of them will face Congressman Byron Donalds. There are no polls matching Democrats against Donalds. There is a January 2026 poll that looks at primaries. David Jolly led Jerry Demings 23 to 19. That leaves an enormous number of undecided voters. Even the poll of the Republican primary had Byron Donalds at only 37%, but 30 points better than the next Republican. What really clinches Donalds’ lead in the primary is the money he raised. He closed out 2025 with about $45 million.
Attorney General: The Democratic candidate, former State Senator Jose Javier Rodriguez, trailed the incumbent James Uthmeier, whose original idea Alligator Alcatraz was, 36 to 45 in an October, 2025 poll. In the fall, Uthmeier reported that he has raised $1.6 million; Jose Javier Rodriguez raised less than $250,000. DONATE to the Rodriguez campaign. See Len’s Political Note #736.
Congressional races: Florida may do a substantial mid-decade redistricting. The governor is planning on a special legislative session in April. He may be hoping to move the Florida 20-6 Republican congressional margin by increasing the number of Republican seats by at least three. At least one law suit has been filed to stop this session. Further recommendations for Florida Congressional donations will wait until redistricting is clarified.
Neighboring states
Georgia Senator: Incumbent Jon Ossoff is widely considered to be vulnerable. His probable opponent is Congressman Mike Collins who led Congressman Buddy Carter by 16 points in a January poll. While I don’t have a general election poll, we can look at finances. Jon Ossoff began 2026 with $25.5 million. Mike Collins trailed his primary opponent Buddy Carter $2.3 million to $4.2 million. DONATE to Jon Ossoff’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #713 After fund raising reports, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved this race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
Georgia Governor: Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is likely to be the Democratic nominee although State Senator Jason Esteves closed out 2025 with as much as he had: $1.1 million. The Republican race is confusing. Newcomer wealthy businessman Rich (That’s his name) Jackson led Lt Governor Burt Jones 24-16 in a February poll. Another February poll had Burt Jones leading Rich Jackson 22-16. Each of them has what appear to be unlimited resources and that does not count outside spending. CBS reports that $13.5 million has been spent by dark money organizations for advertisements against Jones. I suggest: DONATE to Keisha Lance Bottoms’ campaign. See Len’s Political Note #777. Pundit websites see the general election as a Toss-up.
South Carolina Senator. It is possible. Lindsey Graham could be vulnerable. Republican businessman Mark Lynch entered 2026 with $4.6 million to Graham’s $13.4 million. Could Graham be vulnerable to a Democrat? One serious candidate is pediatrician Annie Andrews. While South Carolina suffers from a measles epidemic, her frank and direct criticisms of Republicans could make her a winner. She spent $2.7 million last fall in order to be noticed and had $1.6 million to begin the year. Brandon Brown, a former HBCU administrator is the other serious Democratic candidate. He is definitely spending some money in 2026, but he has no report for the quarter ending on December 31, 2025. He does remind those he reaches that Blacks are a high percentage of South Carolina voters (perhaps 27%) and an even higher percentage of Democrats (perhaps 60%) and an even higher percentage of Democratic primary voters (perhaps 80%). The South Carolina primary is June 9. DONATE to Brandon Brown if you like. Or DONATE to Annie Andrews. Or wait. I don’t think I will wait until the June. primary before making a recommendation to you.
Alabama Governor. In 2018, Doug Jones, the former US Attorney for Northern Alabama, won a special election to the US Senate from Alabama. His victory over the Republican nominee was shocking. It was possible because evidence surfaced that the Republican had a preference for young girls. Doug Jones lost in 2020 by a 60 – 40 margin to football coach and businessman Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville was a troublesome senator. Among other things, angry that the military was compensating women in the service for the cost of traveling elsewhere to get an abortion if the state in which they were stationed prohibited that procedure, Tuberville held up promotions subject to Senate approval for nearly a year. Members of the military insisted as did many Senators that Tuberville was endangering national defense. Perhaps bored with the job of Senator or wary about the anger he provoked, Tuberville decided to run for governor.
Why did Doug Jones decide to run again? Why was he willing to face the possibility of another 60-40 loss? He says: “For too long, Alabama has suffered from an array of office holders who had become embarrassments to our state and cast a shadow on the good people of Alabama. We can do better.” DONATE to Doug Jones campaign. See Len’s Political Note #779.
