February 1st , 2026 Len’s Political Note #786 Hallie Shoffner Arkansas US Senate
2026 General Election
Hallie Shoffner
You do not have to get Chuck Schumer alone for him to tell you this.
For 2026, the first Democratic goal for the Senate is to protect the vulnerable:
Protect incumbent John Ossoff in Georgia. Protect the open Democratic seats in New Hampshire (Support Congressman Chris Pappas), Michigan (Support Congresswoman Haley Stevens) and Minnesota (Congresswoman Angie Craig or Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan).
The second goal is to flip four Republican seats so the Democrats can move from 47 Senate seats to 51. That would be a majority. .
He would tell you to focus on the Republicans four most vulnerable seats:
Defeat incumbent Republican Susan Collins of Maine with term limited Democratic Governor Janet Mills.
Win the open Republican Seat in North Carolina with former Democratic governor Roy Cooper
Defeat incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in Alaska with former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola
Defeat appointed incumbent Republican Jon Husted of Ohio with former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
Some Democrats complain about Schumer’s focus on old pros when it is time for a younger Democratic Party. Only Mary Peltola represents a younger Democratic Party and she is in her early fifties. Neither Sherrod Brown nor Roy Cooper has in-state Democratic opposition. In Maine, 41 year-old oyster farmer Graham Platner could be the Democratic nominee for the US Senate rather than the governor.
The first tier of Senate seats to flip.
I urge support for Roy Cooper, Sherrod Brown, and Mary Peltola.. I am waiting a little bit in Maine. I am waiting to see if a probable Democratic nominee emerges in Main. Once that becomes clear, that is where our money should go – early money to defeat Susan Collins.
Iowa and Texas are a second tier of potentially successful Democrats. We don’t yet know who the nominee will be in either state. The Democrats of Texas will make a decision on March 3. A consensus may be building in Iowa.
There is a third tier. Candidates who have a slim shot at flipping a Republican seat. If you are taken with one or two or three or all of them, donate. Invest in them. Consider Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom of Mississippi, independent Labor Leader Dan Osborn of Nebraska, and independent retired Air Force officer Brian Bengs of South Dakota. And consider farmer Hallie Shoffner of Arkansas.
Today’s piece is about 37 year old Democrat Hallie Shoffner of Shoffner, Arkansas. The town is named for her family and she is from the sixth generation to farm her family’s land. Like many young farmers, she is educated. She graduated from Vanderbilt in 2009 and completed a Master’s Degree in Public Service from the Clinton School of Public Service at the University of Arkansas. (That school is named after Bill Clinton, in case you have forgotten that he was governor of Arkansas for more than a decade.)
Education does not necessarily prepare you for tough decisions, but Hallie Shoffner made two tough ones about her farm. The first was to change its purpose from growing produce to a specialization in seed. That change got the farm nine years under her management. Hallie Shoffner’s SFR Seed was no boutique. It was 1,500 acres growing rice, corn, wheat, and soybeans. She describes it as an industrial farm with row crops that were supported by pesticides, synthetic fertilizers, and thousands of gallons of water.
Hallie Shoffner attributes two factors that led to closing the farm. Climate change was one. During those nine years, the region experienced five “biblical-caliber…. droughts and downpours” which cost her hundreds of thousands of dollars. Congress was the other. The Farm Bill, she explains, had not been updated since 2018. In an uncertain agricultural economy, it is tough for farmers to make a profit with farm supports set by the 2018 bill which used 2012 reference prices.
Hallie Shoffner got out of the business of farming and became a broker. As CEO of Delta Harvest, she connected farmers with buyers and consumers. The political quality to Delta Harvest included a commitment to dealing with climate change. Hallie Shoffner already had a following. A podcaster and communicator, the people of Arkansas and beyond were learning what she thought.
Hallie Shoffner announced her candidacy for the US Senate. Here is how she spoke about a talk to potential supporters: “Y’all, at 37. I’m not considered a “young” Democrat anymore, but I’m so proud to have spoken to such a fired-up group. They want what we all do, a good job, affordable groceries, and a comfortable place to live on a healthy planet. And that shouldn’t be out of reach in the richest country on Earth. As the mother of a six-year-old, I know in my heart that no one, Republican or Democrat, wants to deny young people a future. And there’s no reason we can’t work together to make it a great one.”
Hallie Shoffner avoids conversations about social/cultural issues. Asked whether she is pro-life or anti-abortion, she says these are state issues now, but people should understand that current restrictions prevent women from obtaining some “life saving” procedures. Before she had announced her candidacy, the Republicans were complaining she had not provided personal financial information. She only recently has announced her candidacy. Republicans no longer comment about her personal finances.
Hallie Shoffner is pointed in criticizing both the Democratic Party and the Republican incumbent she is running against. “The Democratic Party has ignored places like Arkansas, and so we kicked them out, as we should have. We got tired of Ivy League-educated politicians that dug themselves up in D.C., and pushed real Arkansans to the back of the line. The problem is, is that Tom Cotton turned around and did exactly the same thing, and we are no better off for it, which is why I think it’s important for us to have a farmer, a working Arkansan representing us in the Senate who’s going to be laser-focused on the things that matter.”
Incumbent Senator Tom Cotton grew up in Arkansas on his parents’ cattle farm. At 6’5”, he attended and played basketball for the local high school and then went to Harvard. After a post-BA interlude studying at Claremont, he returned to Harvard for a law degree, graduating in 2002. After a clerkship and time in private practice, he joined the army in 2005, but not for JAG.
He went to Ranger School and spent the better part of a year in combat. He was reassigned to the States where he earned national attention. The New York Times refused to publish his inflammatory letter, but a conservative blog did. He claimed that three journalists who published details about the military monitoring Iraqi terrorist financing had committed espionage for which they should be tried. The espionage act had never been used against journalists and was not used this time, either.
In 2008, Cotton was sent to Afghanistan where he spent the better part of a year planning counter-insurgency and reconstruction. In 2009, he was honorably discharged and went to work for a consulting firm. In 2010, he rejoined the military as a member of the reserves for three years.
In 2012, home in Arkansas, he ran for Congress and won despite a controversy about an article he had written for the Harvard Crimson years earlier suggesting the internet was not useful as a teaching tool. He explained that the internet had “matured” since then. He made no suggestion that he had matured. Once elected, he explained his opposition to farm bills as opposition to the extent to which those bills support SNAP funding.
Tom Cotton’s time in Congress was dominated by his leading the charge against President Barack Obama’s views of what could and could not be military intervention. Having positioned himself as an Obama opponent, he ran and defeated the Democratic incumbent Senator in 2014. His vote against the 2013 Farm Bill did not seem so important at the time. He was reelected in 2020 without a Democratic opponent. Cotton and his team kept quiet about his knowledge of something scandalous about the Democratic nominee until after the date when Arkansas law no longer allowed the Party to replace its nominee. The Democrat withdrew from the race rather than face scandalous publicity. Cotton’s official opponent in that race was from the Libertarian Party.
Subsequent to the election, Slate magazine claimed that Cotton had misrepresented his military service; that he had described himself as fighting as an Army Ranger though he was actually with the 101st Airborne in Iraq. Hallie Shoffner can reasonably attack Tom Cotton for being more interested in controversy than legislation, for being extreme in his views, even in his area of expertise, the military, for ignoring the needs of the people of Arkansas by voting against Farm Bills and, for that matter, opposing SNAP (otherwise known as food stamps). He completed Ranger School and fought in combat. In a country led by a President who lies almost every time he opens his mouth, Tom Cotton claiming he fought as a Ranger does not pass for a misdemeanor. Mark Jacobs outlines 15 ways Tom Cotton is awful, of which the Ranger claim is only one. See: https://www.stopthepresses.news/p/15-ways-tom-cotton-is-awful
Oppose Tom Cotton for good reasons. It would be a small miracle if Hallie Shoffner were to defeat Tom Cotton. DONATE to her campaign. You might make the miracle happen. She will put up a serious fight
First Tier Senate Defense
Incumbent Jon Ossoff of Georgia. DONATE See Len’s Political Note #713
Congressman Chris Pappas of New Hampshire. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #743
Congresswoman Haley Stevens of Michigan DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #763
Congresswoman Angie Craig or Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota
First Tier Senate Offense
Roy Cooper of North Carolina: DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #744
Sherrod Brown of Ohio: DONATE See Len’s Political Note #750
Former Congresswoman Mary Peltola of Alaska DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #785
Governor Janet Mills or Oyster Farmer Graham Platner of Maine
Second Tier Senate Offense
Chamber of Commerce head Nathan Sage or State Rep Josh Turek or State Sen Zack Wahls of Iowa
Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett or State Rep James Talarico of Texas
Third Tier of Senate Offense
District Attorney Scott Colom of Mississippi. DONATE See Len’s Political Note #764
Independent Dan Osborn Labor Leader of Nebraska DONATE See Len’s Political Note #765
Independent Retired US Air Force Lt Col. Brian Bengs of South Dakota DONATE See Len’s Political Note #774
More third tier candidates to come. I believe that at least one of the third tier candidates will flip a Republican seat.
On the Shoffner family farm just outside Newport, Arkansas, the past feels close. Hallie Shoffner works there from a house built for her postmaster great-great-uncle, that later accommodated her grandfather, then her own family, and later still served as an office for the SFR Seedagricultural research farm her parents started in 1988. Her family has lived in the same place for six generations, and not coincidentally her surname is the name of her town. Still, as any conversation with Shoffner suggests, her thoughts center squarely on the future.
As she’s sung to the rafters for numerous panels, podcasts, and presentations, the challenges of farming in the modern era are legion. Since her parents retired, Shoffner has overseen SFR, a now 1,500-acre seed production farm growing rice, corn, wheat, and soybeans. In her six years there, five of them have included extreme weather events, a biblical-caliber smorgasbord of droughts and downpours, which she figures has cost her upwards of $133,000. And though she’s the first to say she’s considered an industrial farmer—a row crop planter who uses pesticides, thousands of gallons of water a year, and synthetic fertilizer—Shoffner has become a vocal climate activist, heralding its detrimental effects to her Instagram followers and legislators alike, and implementing her own regenerative and conservation practices.
Climate change, she says, is the biggest threat facing farmers—and the food chain. “If a hurricane hits the Gulf Coast and demolishes one of the biggest granaries in the world,” she explains, “and you can’t get your grain sold down to the port, or prices have tanked because grain can’t leave the country, that’s still climate change affecting you.” So just as her parents conducted hundreds of research trials, building a livelihood on a mountain of data, Shoffner now does the same as she navigates new-to-her approaches: cutting back on tillage, or the number of passes machinery makes over a given piece of ground; swapping out synthetic fertilizer for chicken litter; and substituting in electric water pumps for diesel. All actions that save or make money, as well as cut carbon emissions.
But she and other farmers can’t be the only ones to change, she says, which is why she advocates for help on a governmental scale. In the meantime, every choice she makes, every experiment she carries out, every letter to a congressperson she writes, is with an eye to the future—her farm’s, and the earth’s.
Shoffner left the farm for several years, using that time to get her master’s degree in public service, launch a migrant outreach nonprofit, and work on a mayoral campaign—all of which she says has helped her become a better farmer.
Y’all, at 37. I’m not considered a “young” Democrat anymore, but I’m so proud to have spoken to such a fired up group. They want what we all do, a good job, affordable groceries, and a comfortable place to live on a healthy planet. And that shouldn’t be out of reach in the richest country on Earth. As the mother of a six-year-old, I know in my heart that no one, Republican or Democrat, wants to deny young people a future. And there’s no reason we can’t work together to make it a great one.
Hallie Shoffner wants to fight for farmers to get Sen. Tom Cotton voted out
Sen. Tom Cotton will run his campaign on his record and it’s that very record that Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner thinks he should be voted out.
While Senator Tom Cotton heads back to Washington D.C. following the opening of election filing day in Arkansas to work on ending the shutdown, his Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner is focusing on the beginning of her campaign to unseat him.
Shoffner announced her campaign in the summer to get Cotton voted out and with filing day on Monday she made it official. So far, she’s the only candidate that filed to run against him.
For 12 years, Cotton has been in Washington D.C. representing the people of Arkansas. He first started as a congressman, but in 2014 he joined the Senate defeating then-Senator Mark Pryor.
Shoffner was a sixth generation farmer in Arkansas before her farm closed earlier this year. She told us in a sit-down interview that no matter what crop they planted or how hard people worked, it wasn’t enough to counterbalance the costs and finances.
“You don’t have to be a farmer to understand what it feels like to work hard and do everything right and still fall behind,” Shoffner said. “Not because we have failed but because the system is rigged against real people in Arkansas.”
When it comes to her Republican opponent, Shoffner believes Cotton’s career in D.C. has been actively against the best interest of Arkansans. She points to his voting against the farm bill previously as an example of that.
In 2014 and 2018, Cotton did vote against the farm bill. In each instance, he said that the legislation didn’t do enough to cut SNAP benefit funding. “I support farm bills, not food stamp bills,” Cotton said in 2018 regarding his no vote.
Shoffner described the farm bill being about “feeding people” and claimed Cotton “doesn’t care about feeding people.”
“He does not care that one in four children in Arkansas will go to bed hungry tonight,” Shoffner said.
While SNAP benefits are partially funded, that still leaves them in long-term limbo and Shoffner said there is “no way” food banks will be able to “make up the large gap” the government shutdown uncertainty has caused.
She said she is in this race because if she can’t farm, “I’m going to fight for farmers, for workers, for families and for hungry children.”
One of the many inspirations for Shoffner getting into politics is when she was invited to speak at a town hall shortly after her family made the decision earlier this year to close down their farm. She said that officials didn’t come to that town hall, instead Cotton and others held a dinner where prices to attend were anywhere from $1,000 to $7,000
“For real people here in Arkansas, we don’t complain that the work is hard, we just want a fair deal,” Shoffner said. “And Tom Cotton, if he would just get his dress loafer off our necks, we could do so much better than what we’re doing.”
She also referenced the Trump administration’s $40 billion aid package being sent to Argentina at a time when the American economy struggles with rising prices and the shutdown. Half of that funding will come from a credit swap line while the rest will come from the private sector and other financing.
“Farmers, we’re not happy about that. We are not and more than that, we are now supporting a possible import of Argentinian beef,” Shoffner said.
Her experience as a farmer will be central to her campaign. She said that when a farm goes out of business, it impacts the entire community that is built around the soil.
“It is not just the farmer that suffers,” she said. “It’s the workers, the workers’ wives, their kids. It’s the mechanics that service our trucks and our equipment.”
Over the next year, Shoffner hopes to make the case against Cotton so she can head to D.C. and “give those people a dose of reality” for the people of Arkansas.
There is a second tier of contests. If Chuck Schumer and the Democratic Party ignores that tier, it will be a mistake. Counting on everything going right in the eight states listed above is too chancy. Failure to focus on the two states in the next tier is foolish.
Iowa has an open Republican seat and a popular Republican Congresswoman running to fill it. Chuck Schumer has his favorite here. State Rep Josh Turek is a wheelchair-bound Para-Olympian basketball player. The other two Democrats are State Senator Mike Zimmer, the child of two women and an advocate for the LGBTQ community and Nathan Sage, Chair of a small city Chamber of Commerce who is angry at the establishment.
Texas has contests galore. The Republicans have a three-way: Incumbent John Cornyn versus the notorious Attorney General Ken Paxton versus conservative African American Congressman Wesley Hunt. The Democrats are choosing between quick-witted, street-smart Jasmine Crockett and (as I was quoted in the Washington Post) with his thousands of young volunteers James Talarico – a Christian and Texas version of Zohran Mamdani.
It will not be long before we know where we stand in choosing who to support in Iowa and Texas.
There is a third tier. Underdogs who have a shot. Chuck Schumer and the DSCC may not want to risk big money on these people. But I encourage small donors to consider them. There are two groups of these: Democrats and Independents.
In Arkansas, Hallie Shoffner belongs in that third tier. Help her defeat incumbent Tom Cotton. DONATE.
From the magazine Garden and Gun
In Mississippi, a popular local District Attorney Scott Colom is challenging incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. She is vulnerable. A poll six months ago found that 60% of Mississippians said they would vote for another candidate. Would they all vote for an African-American whose claim to fame is his effectiveness in prosecuting murderers? DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #764.
In Florida former school board member and education activist Jennifer Jenkins is running against appointed incumbent Ashley Moody. When Moody was Florida’s attorney general she supported law suits to invalidate the Affordable Care Act and to invalidate Florida’s successful referendum to legalize cannabis. In the Senate, she has been a Trump loyalist. Jennifer Jenkins promises to reduce costs by fixing the broken property insurance system and protecting health care. DONATE
Part B of the Third Tier are independents. They argue that the Democratic Party brand in their states has been so damaged it is not viable in their states. Democrats already have two Independents on whom they rely – Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine.
The independents have a leader in labor chief Dan Osborn of Nebraska who came within 6 ½ points of flipping a Nebraska Senate seat in 2024. In 2026, he is trying to defeat Republican multi-millionaire incumbent and former governor Pete Ricketts. DONATE to Dan Osborn’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #765
Another is South Dakota’s Brian Bengs, a retired US Air Force Lt. Colonel. Brian Bengs is an outspoken critic of Donald Trump and his Republican followers, among them South Dakota’s incumbent Republican Senator Mike Rounds. DONATE to Brian Bengs’ campaign.
Still another independent is former State Rep Todd Achilles who had been appointed to the position by the Republican governor. He is running against the 82 year old incumbent Jim Risch who is opposed to abortion, gets a zero from an animal welfare organization, and gets an A+ from the NRA. He is one of the few who opposed criminal justice reform efforts. He supported repeal of the Affordable Care Act. He defended Donald Trump’s defense of Saudi Arabia’s killing for the US resident, Saudi journalist. Todd Achilles deserves our thanks if he can pull this off. DONATE.
And we have a new member of the group of independents. Seth Bodner, the President of the University of Montana is about to announce his independent candidacy for the US Senate to the chagrin of Montana Democrats, but with the support of former Democratic US Senator Jon Tester. This is beginning to look like a movement.
Nebraska. Independent candidate and labor leader Dan Osborn is opposing Republican multi-millionaire incumbent and former governor Pete Ricketts. Ricketts leads in reported fund raising, not a particularly relevant statistic for a so wealthy a man. There are no polls to rely on. Dan Osborn lost by more than 6 points in 2024 when neither the Republicans nor the Democrats were taking him seriously. Take him seriously. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #765.
States where we know who to support, but where the candidates’ chances are slimmer.
Mississippi In recent years, Democrats have elected an attorney general, but no governors and no Senators. Even with voter suppression, African Americans are a hefty proportion of the voters in Mississippi. Can an African American Democrat get enough votes to win a state-wide election in Mississippi? Can Mississippi public schools get a favorable story in the New York Times? (The answer to the last question is yes.). Local District Attorney Scott Colom is asking the first question. Can his exceptional record as a prosecutor make a difference against Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith? Six months ago a poll found her underwater in favorability with 60% saying they would vote for another candidate. There are no current polls and Hyde-Smith has a real lead in funds raised. DONATE to Scott Colom’s campaign. Give him a chance to see if Mississippians will vote for him.
South Dakota. Independent Air Force JAG officer retiree Brian Bengs is attempting to follow Dan Osborn’s path in Nebraska. He has very little resources while incumbent Mike Rounds has a fair amount. There are certainly no polls. Nevertheless, Bengs is bold and coherent in what he has to say, taking advantage of both Trump’s unpopularity and what appear to be Rounds weaknesses. DONATE. Help create another story about Republican weakness.
Arkansas Democrat Hallie Shoffner is a farmer in a year that could be the year of the Democratic farmer. She is running against incumbent Tom Cotton. There are no polls. She has raised more money than the wily Tom Cotton, but it would be foolish to think he is not fooling us. She has about the same chance of being elected as Zohran Mamdani had at this point in his campaign for mayor of New York. Take her seriously. DONATE.
Florida. The Democratic candidate will probably be activist and former school board member Jennifer Jenkins. She is running for this two year term against appointed incumbent and former Attorney General Ashley Moody. Polls last fall showed Moody leading by 7 to 11 points. Last fall Moody had raised a modest amount for a huge state race and Jenkins had not announced. This is not exactly fluid in a state that has become so Republican, but Jennifer Jenkins is worth support. DONATE.
Vulnerable Seats for which Democrats have multiple candidates. The Democrats are more likely to find a fourth, even a fifth or sixth seat to flip from this list. We’ll need to figure out who to support though. March is coming soon. June, however, is much farther away.
Texas The primary is March 3.
Iowa. The primary is June 2
South Carolina The primary is June 9
Maine. The primary is June 9
