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September 12th. Len’s Political Note #752 Katie Porter California Governor
2026 General Election
California is different. Among the ways it is different is how it elects officials. There is no partisan election. Everybody who wants to be Governor, say, runs. The top two vote getters in this non-partisan primary then run against each other.
The crucial non-partisan primary is sooner than you think. Less than nine months to go. The primary will be on June 2, 2026. September, 2025 is not too early to start donating to the person you want to be a finalist.
I want former Congresswoman Katie Porter to be a finalist. Right now, she is the front runner. If you count Undecided as an entity, Katie Porter is in second place. Emerson College conducted a poll in August. Two weeks later, the Citrin Center conducted a poll. Take a look
Those polls? What do they say about the people who are running?
- Katie Porter (D), ex Law prof, Congresswoman 21% in late August,18% earlier
- Chad Bianco (R ), County Sheriff 15% in late August, 7% earlier
- John Hilton (R), ex Fox political commentator 10% in late August, 12% earlier
- Antonio Villaraigosa (D), Ex LA Mayor 9% in late August, 5% earlier
- Xavier Bacerra (D), Ex CA AG, US HHS Secy 9% in late August, 3% earlier
- Rick Caruso (D), Developer 6% in late August, 4% earlier
- Betty Yee (D) Ex CA Comptroller 6% in late August, 2% earlier
- Toni Atkins (D) State Sen Pro Tem 4% in late August, 2% earlier
- Stephen Cloobeck (D), Businessman 2% in late August, 2% earlier
- Tony Thurmond (D) Stat Supt of Pub Inst 2% in late August, 1% earlier
One other candidate could turn things upside down. US Senator Alex Padilla has hinted at the possibility that he could run. He did not say it, but in these days of hyper partisanship, being in the minority in the US Senate is no fun. The Democrats opportunity to gain a majority in the US Senate has moved from slightly better than none to slightly better than slim. I bet on Alex Padilla remaining in the Senate.
DONATE to former Member of Congress Katie Porter. Help her build a big bankroll now. If a Republican emerges as a serious candidate, she will have the resources she needs. If no Republican emerges and the unlikely happens, the top two candidates are both Democrats, she will be the likely winner. To ensure a Democratic US Senator from California, you will not need to donate so much after June 2.
Katie Porter is originally from Iowa. She was a farmer. At least her dad was. He was a farmer and a banker while her mother was a quilter.
They had the resources to send their daughter East to high school; to Phillips Andover Academy in Massachusetts. Katie Porter stayed East and went to Yale in Connecticut. There she wrote a senior thesis titled The Effects of Corporate Farming on Rural Community. She maintained her connection with Iowa by interning with Iowa’s then and still Senator, Chuck Grassley. From Yale she returned to Massachusetts for her JD from Harvard Law School where she studied under now Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Elizabeth Warren was a specialist in banking law. She had become an advocate for studying how laws actually affected individuals. When she began her study of bankruptcy in the mid-1980s, she had commonly held expectations – those who went bankrupt were either working the system or had incurred debts irresponsibly. After reviewing thousands of cases in bankruptcy courts throughout the country, she discovered her assumptions were wrong. Those seeking bankruptcy were much like her own family in Oklahoma – struggling financially, forced into bankruptcy because of illness, because of divorce, or because the breadwinner lost his or her job. Those who went bankrupt were neither predators nor profligates. They were hard working people with bad luck, treated badly by a system that assumed they were predators or profligates.
After a clerkship in Little Rock with a judge from the 8th circuit plus some time practicing law in Portland, Oregon, Katie Porter became the Director of the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges’ Business Bankruptcy Project which extended Elizabeth Warren’s work. Katie Porter had become an academic. Beginning in 2004, she taught for a year at the University of Nevada. The next year, she returned home – teaching at the University of Iowa until 2011 when she moved to the University of California – Irvine.
In the spring of 2012, Kamala Harris, the California Attorney General, appointed Katie Porter as California’s independent monitor for overseeing California’s $9.5 billion share of a national settlement in which banks agreed to implement changes. She wrote a law book which was published in 2016 and ran for Congress in 2018, defeating the incumbent Republican 52-48. She won again in 2020, 53.5 to 46.5, and again in 2022 52-48.
Her 2024 Senate bid did not turn out as well for Katie Porter. With 15% of the vote, she was third behind Republican Steve Garvey’s 31% and fellow Democrat Adam Schiff’s 31%. Her complaint that the vote was rigged caused a stir for sounding like Trump, though her intent was to complain about Schiff pumping Garvey up so he would have an easy target to defeat in November.
Each step up a candidate tries to take invites new opportunities to find their faults. Sometimes those faults involve money. In Katie Porter’s case, some criticized her housing benefit. She lives in faculty housing in Irvine for which she paid a little more than $500,000. The housing was priced low enough to attract faculty to the University of California – Irvine. Currently the median price of a house in Irvine is $1.7 million and Katie Porter, no longer a faculty member, is still living there. That, it turns out, is not abnormal. The University granted her a leave without pay and, it is the practice for faculty who go on to provide “service to the nation” to remain in their residence.
The more popular scandal about Katie Porter is that she gets angry. As part of her divorce settlement, she and her ex-husband agreed to take anger management training. A non-marriage relationship broke up with complaints about the intensity of her anger.
Some former employees complain about how angry a boss she was. Others consider her anger to be grounded in high expectations. Jennifer Palmieri, Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign communications director, has said “We too often embrace the notion that working for demanding men shows how tough we are. It shows we can handle life in the big leagues. It makes us cool… Working for a difficult and demanding woman isn’t seen as cool. Working for a difficult and demanding woman is seen as humiliating.”
I think the anger issue is a genuine mark against Katie Porter. You get more out of your staff when you do not get angry at them. If you have staff who are not self-motivated enough to work hard and effectively, fire them rather than yell at them.
With Katie Porter, you get an extraordinarily effective progressive. On social issues, there is no hesitation in her support for women’s reproductive rights, for the rights of LGBTQ people, for the rights of workers, for solving the housing crisis, and for solving the climate crisis. On issues of governance, she would impose a code of ethics for the Supreme Court, would undoubtedly vote again to convict Donald Trump for breaking “the law and put[ing] his personal interest and his political interest ahead of this country’s interest.” She personally accepts no donations from corporate political action committees.
We have no idea who will come in second in the non-partisan primary in California. A Republican sheriff or a Republican political commentator? A Democratic former mayor, another Democratic politician, or a Democratic businessman? Katie Porter will finish first (I think) and will need resources to build up a sufficient campaign fund to make California’s gubernatorial campaign between June 2026 and November 2026 entirely uninteresting. DONATE now.
Other Governor Races
November, 2025
In 2018, a small, but influential group of Democrats with national security experience were elected to the House of Representatives. Two of them have already moved on to the US Senate – Andy Kim of New Jersey and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan. This November, two more are running for governor of their state: former military helicopter pilot Mikie Sherill of New Jersey and former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.
New Jersey 270ToWin shows a late August poll with Congresswoman Mikie Sherill leading by 10 points, a little more than the 6 point lead of an early August poll and the 8 point lead of a late July poll. Opinions and Ratings insists that this campaign is not over; that turnout is crucial. Otherwise, demographics stand out – urban and suburban voters prefer Mikie Sherill; exurban and rural voters prefer the Republican Jack Ciatarelli. The better educated and more prosperous prefer Sherill; the less well educated and lower earners prefer Ciatarelli. Party members prefer their own party’s candidate by more than 80%. Independents are split evenly among three groups – for Sherill, for Ciaterelli, and undecided. That analysis, though, favors Sherill. Her cautious optimism seems well-founded. At the end of July, the Brennan Center reported that Sherill and Ciatarelli were about tied in fund raising at $9 million, but that Mikie Sherill appeared to have a big lead in spending by outside groups. Reports indicated that prior to the primaries more than #120 million was spent on the several candidates. We are entering an intense spending period for the candidates nominated by each party. DONATE to Mikie Sherill. Help her win this race which is definitely not over. See Len’s Political Note #732
Virginia 270ToWin reports former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger with a 7 point lead over Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earl-Sears; not quite as substantial as the 12 point lead in a mid-July poll. Opinions and Ratings reports that women and members of minority groups make up Spanberger’s lead. Unlike NJ, where younger voters support the Democrat overwhelmingly, in Virginia, they are more equally divided with a substantial undecided group. Spanberger’s partisan support is well into the 90%s and Earl-Sears is almost as high. Earl-Sears could make a dent with gains among the undecided young; Spanberger’s task is consolidating her lead. At the end of July, Spanberger had a $27 million to $12 million lead in fund raising. Because Virginia does not limit political donations, more has gone to candidates and less to PACs than is the case in New Jersey. Earl-Sears is receiving noticeable corporate support, among the supporters is Virginia’s principal energy company. DONATE to Abigail Spanberger’s campaign. Ensure that she keeps her lead. See Len’s Political Note #705
November, 2026
Toss ups
Arizona: 270toWin reports a late August 2025 poll shows Businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson leading Congressman Andy Biggs in the Republican primary. By 10 points. In the late August 2025 General Election poll, Incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs leads Taylor Robson by 2 points. Opinions and Ratings describes Hobbs general election lead as consistent and reflects her appeal to moderate Democrats, independents, and swing Republicans. DONATE to Katie Hobbs campaign. This promises to be a verey close race. Karrin Taylor Robson will have nearly unlimited resources and will be a challenge to defeat. See Len’s Political Note #712
Michigan: 270toWin reports a poll that compares a variety of possible contests with the several candidates for Michigan’s governor. Of the three Democratic candidates for Governor only Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is ahead in every possible combination of Republican candidates plus the independent candidate. Of the five Republican candidates for Governor only Congressman John James leads in every possible combination of Democratic candidates plus the independent except when Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic candidate. And in that case, Jocelyn Benson leads John James by a single point. If we are to choose to follow the advice of a poll that is well before the primary and the general election, we would assume that the race will be between Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Congressman John James. DONATE to Jocelyn Benson’s campaign. Early money makes a difference. See Len’s Political Note #747
Nevada 270toWin reports no polls for the Nevada Governor’s race. But we know that the contest will be term-limited Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford against the Republican incumbent Joe Lombardi. Spurred, perhaps, by a late July poll that found the governor had lost popularity, partly in connection with the President’s reduced popularity, there were late July articles about the campaign. Politico seemed to find that the campaign, focused on Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill would pit the partial elimination of taxes on tips in this entertainment-oriented state against 100,000 Nevadans losing their Medicaid health insurance. We have a long time to see how that conversation goes and whether Nevada will elect its first Black Governor. Meanwhile, DONATE. Early money is a big deal. Help Aaron Ford. See Len’s Political Note #745
Georgia: 270toWin reports no polls among the five Democrats running and the bitter fight between the two Republicans running. Opinions and Ratings suggests that Lt. Governor Burt Jones is the Republican front runner and hints that former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms might/could be/perhaps would be the Democratic front runner. Let’s wait a little and see.
Wisconsin 270ToWin reports no polls for Wisconsin. With Tony Evers announcement that he will not run for a third term, the campaign is in its infancy. Democratic Lt Governor Sara Rodriguez has announced as have Republicans Bill Berrien and Josh Shoemann – a businessman and a county executive respectively. A dozen or two more candidates could announce before the 2026 primary.
Lean Republican
Iowa While there is considerable uncertainly in Iowa’s Senate race in the light of Joni Ernst announcing she would not run, Democrats know where they stand in the Governor’s race. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding state-wide office, has announced for Governor. There are no polls for the Iowa governor’s race, though we know that the outgoing Republican governor is among the least popular governors in the country. We also know that Rob Sand’s bi-partisan approach to governance has some appeal to Iowans. Finally, we know that despite the several Republicans who have announced, the probable Republican candidate is Congressman Randy Feenstra who represents the only non-competitive Congressional district in the state. DONATE to Rob Sand’s campaign. See Len’s Political Note #746
Kansas There are no polls here; there is an outgoing, term-limited popular Democratic governor, Laura Kelly. Two Democratic State Senators have announced – Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher. Ethan Corson has Laura Kelly’s endorsement and the support of most of the Democratic Party’s leadership. Seven Republicans have announced. Still dominating Kansas politics is the disastrous right wing experiment of former Senator and then Governor Sam Brownback. While there are Republicans who love that experiment, if a Republican front runner develops with ties to that tax cutting experiment, it will increase the possibility that Kansas could elect two Democrats in a row as governor. As it is, at least one Republican candidate for governor is expressing remorse for having voted for Brownback’s budget. And one Democrat seems to have a chance to be elected. DONATE to Ethan Corson’s campaign.
Ohio 270ToWin reports on one poll for this race. Billionaire Republican and former Elon Musk DOGE partner Vivek Ramaswamy leads former Democratic Congressman and 2022 Senate candidate Tim Ryan against JD Vance by 8 points. So far, though, Ryan is not running. Ramaswamy leads former state medical director Amy Acton, an announced candidate, by 10 points. In the money race, Ramaswamy raised $9.7 million, Amy Acton raised $1.4 million. Amy Acton is an appealing candidate, but she will not be able to raise money in the same range as Ramaswamy. DONATE to Amy Acton so she can compete. See Len’s Political Note #724
Alaska 270ToWin does have an early August poll. Former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, with 40% of the vote leads the next candidate by 27 points. We do not know if Peltola will run for governor. She could run for the Senate or run to get her former job back in the House. The entire process is made complicated by Alaska’s election rules by which the top four in an open primary then compete via ranked choice in the general election. Even though former State Senator Tom Begich has announced his candidacy as a Democrat for governor and at least seven Republicans have announced, I suggest making donations to Alaska Democrats after Mary Peltola announces what office she will run for.
New Hampshire There are a couple of polls for the race for governor of New Hampshire. The money poll is among Republicans. The incumbent Governor, Kelly Ayotte, has raised a million dollars – more than any previous gubernatorial election at this stage. The other poll is among Democratic leaders. – which one might have a chance to defeat Ayotte. Not one has announced his or her candidacy in the race. Former State Senator Tom Sherman has discussed the possibility of a run. That’s it.
Vermont 270ToWin reports no polls from Vermont. Republican Phil Scott was elected Governor of Vermont for the first time in 2016. Because the term of office for a Vermont governor is two years, 2026 will be the sixth time that he will run for governor in the state that elected Bernie Sanders to the US Senate. This apparent anomaly is a reflection of how complicated it is to characterize an electorate and how moderate a Republican Phil Scott is. No primary opposition has arisen to oppose Scott. No Democrat has expressed interest in running against Scott. If Scott faces serious opposition, I will write about it. That’s it for the Lean Republican states.
