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November 10th, 2024 Len’s Political Note #683 Who is up for election to the Senate in 2026
2026 General Election
You don’t have to start spending money yet, but I have received my first solicitation. If we are to recover from the losses of this election, we have to remember that the Democratic party is both the party of democracy (where everyone gets a chance to vote and everyone gets a chance to thrive) and the party of republicanism (where there are no kings and the Supreme Court has no business providing the President with immunity for criminal acts).
TCinLA quoted Elizabeth Warren:
“Even though the Biden economy produced strong economic growth while reining in inflation, incumbent parties across the globe have been tossed out by voters after the pandemic. American voters …showed support for Democratic economic policies, for example, approving ballot initiatives to raise the minimum wage in Alaska and to guarantee paid sick leave in Missouri.
… more than 67 million people voted for Democrats and they don’t expect us to roll over and play dead. We won’t always win, but we can slow or sometimes limit Trump’s destruction. With every fight, we can build political power to put more checks on his administration and build the foundation for future wins. Remember that during the first Trump term, mass mobilization—including some of the largest peaceful protests in world history—was the battery that charged the resistance. There is power in solidarity, and we can’t win if we don’t get in the fight.”
Still fighting for 2024
Consider creating a plan to flip the US Senate back. The Republicans now have 52 seats, to the Democrats 45.
Bob Casey is behind by .6% of the vote with 98% of the vote in. Some have called this seat for the Republicans. Bob Casey is asking for resources to help in dealing with the ballot count. DONATE to Bob Casey
The two seats everybody agrees are not yet called are held by Democrats. With 78% of the vote in, Ruben Gallego has a 1.9% lead in Arizona. With 96% of the vote in Jacky Rosen has a 1.3% lead. If we do a decent job of helping both of them with legal and political staff to oversee ballot counting, those both should remain Democratic seats. DONATE to Ruben Gallego. DONATE TO Jacky Rosen.
Gearing up for 2026
Democratic Incumbents
Consider them for vulnerability. Consider the likelihood they will run again. Can all eleven seats be defended successfully?
Colorado John Hickenlooper
72 year old former mayor of Denver, former governor of Colorado, he was elected to his first term in 2020 by a 53.5 to 44.2 margin. BS, MS Wesleyan
Delaware Chris Coons
61 year old former Republican, former County Executive, he was initially elected in a special election in 2010, he has won every election by at least a 10 point margin. BA Amherst, MA Yale Divinity, JD Yale
Georgia Jon Ossoff
37 year old former documentary film maker and congressional staffer, he was elected in 2020/1 after trailing in the first round when no candidate received more than 50% by a margin of 50.6 to 49.4. BS Georgetown, MS London School of Economics.
He has begun his fund raising effort already. DONATE
Illinois Dick Durkin
79 year old 10 term former Congressman, five term US Senator, he has won every Senate race by at least 10 points. BS, JD Georgetown.
Massachusetts Ed Markey
78 year old elected 20 times to the House of Representatives, won special election to the Senate in 2013, reelected in 2014 and 2020. After he was established in Congress, he rarely had an opponent, in the Senate, he won the special election by 10 points, the next two elections by substantially more. BA, JD Boston College
Michigan Gary Peters
65 year old three term Congressman and two term US Senator. He was reelected in 2020 by a 49.9 to 48.2 margin. BA Alma College, MA Michigan State, MA, JD Wayne State, Dipl US Naval War College
Minnesota Tina Smith
66 year old former high level political staffer, Lt. Governor appointee, Senate appointee, who won special election in 2018 and full term election in 2020. Won in 2020 48.7 to 43.5. BA Stanford, MBA Dartmouth
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen
77 year old former three term governor and four term US Senator. Only once elected to the Senate by 10 points or more, her closest race was in the 2014 special election 51.2 to 48.2. BS Shippensburg (PA), MSS Mississippi
New Jersey Cory Booker
55 year old former mayor (and former NBA player), elected to US Senate in special election in 2013, to full terms in 2014 and 2020. Won by 10 or more points for each Senate election. BA, MA Stanford, MA Oxford, JD Yale
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan
52 year old six term Congressman, elected to the US Senate in 2020 by a margin of 51.7 to 45.6. BBA University of New Mexico, New Mexico Highlands
Oregon Jeff Merkley
68 year old former Speaker of the Oregon House and three term US Senator. After ousting a Republican incumbent by less than three points, he won the 2014 and 1020 races by 15 or 20 points. BA Stanford, MPA Princeton
Rhode Island Jack Reed
74 year old former three term Congressman, he is a five term US Senator who, in his closest races, has been elected by 30 points. BS US Military Academy, MPP, JD Harvard
Republican Incumbents
Consider them for vulnerability. Consider the likelihood they will run again. Can all seats be defended successfully?
Alabama Tommy Tuberville
70 year old former college football coach, he was elected in 2020 by a 20 point margin.
BS Southern State College (now Southern Arkansas University)
Alaska Dan Sullivan
59 year old former state attorney general and former Commissioner of Natural Resources, he is in his second term as a US Senator. He won by a 3 point margin in 2014, by a 13 point margin in 2020. BA Harvard, MS, JD Georgetown
Arkansas Tom Cotton
47 year old former one term Congressman, in his second term in the Senate. He was initially elected by 17 points and won by 30 points over a Libertarian in 2020. The Democratic candidate withdrew after the filing deadline amid rumors that Cotton’s information about the candidate had driven him out of the race after it was legally impossible for the Democrats to name a candidate. BA, JD Harvard
Idaho Jim Risch
81 year old former governor, he is in his third term as US Senator. He won each of his Senate elections by 20 points. BS, JD Idaho
Iowa Joni Ernst
54 year old former County Auditor, she is in her second term as US Senator. She won both elections to the Senate by upper single digits. BA Iowa State, MPA Columbus State
Kansas Roger Marshall
64 year old two-term Congressman completing his first term as US Senator. He was elected by an 11 point margin. BS Kansas State, MD Kansas
Kentucky Mitch McConnell
82 year old former Deputy US Attorney General, former County Executive, stepping down as what would be Majority Leader in the Senate. In his 7th term as a US Senator, it would be a surprise if he ran again. He will probably seek to maneuver to arrange for his choice to be elected. Several of his elections were close. His last two victories were by 1.6 points and 3.2 points.
Louisiana Bill Cassidy
67 year old former three term Congressman, he is in his second term in the US Senate. He won a run off in 2014 after coming in second in the first run. He won by 40 points in 2020. BS, MD Louisiana State
Maine Susan Collins
71 year old former Governor, she is in her fifth term as US Senator. Her close races include a 5 point victory in 1996 and a 9 point victory in 2020. BA St. Lawrence
Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith
65 year old former State Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce, after being appointed and then winning a special election in 2018, she was elected to her first full term in 2020. She won the special election run off by 7 points as it seemed possible that Mississippi would elect a Democratic African American Senator. She defeated the same Democrat in 2020 by ten points. AA Copiah-Lincoln Community College, BA Southern Mississippi
Montana Steve Daines
62 year old former businessman and one term Congressman is serving his second term as a US Senator. He was elected by 10 points in 2020 defeating a former Democratic governor. BS Montana State
Nebraska Pete Ricketts
60 year old former businessman, baseball team owner, and Governor, he lost a race for the Senate in 2006. Was appointed to the US Senate to fill a vacancy early in 2024, and won a special election by nearly 30 points this November. BA, MBA Chicago
North Carolina Thom Tillis
64 year old former state rep, he is in his second term as US Senator. He was elected in 2014 by 1.5 points; by 2 points in 2020. BS University College, Maryland.
Oklahoma Markwayne Mullin
47 year old former businessman and five term Congressman, was elected to the US Senate in a 2022 special election by a 25 point margin. AAS Oklahoma State University Institute of Technology.
South Carolina Lindsay Graham
69 year old former four term Congressman, he is in his fourth term as US Senator. His closest races were in 2002 and 2020 which he won by about 10 points. BA, JD South Carolina
South Dakota Mike Rounds
70 year old former two term Governor, he is in his second term as US Senator. He was elected by 20 points in 2014, by 30 points in 2020. BS South Dakota State
Tennessee Bill Haggerty
65 year old former ambassador to Japan, he is in his first term as US Senator. He was elected by more than 25 points. BA, JD Vanderbilt.
Texas John Cornyn
72 year old for state Attorney General, he is in his fourth term as US Senator. His 10 point win in 2020 was his closest US Senate race. BA Trinity, JD St. Mary’s, LLM Virginia
West Virginia Shelly Moore Capito
70 year old daughter of a former Governor, seven term Member of Congress, she is in her second term as US Senator. She won election in 2014 by about 25 points; in 2020 by about 35 points. BA Duke, MEd Virginia
Wyoming Cynthia Lummims
70 year old former state legislator, state treasurer, and four term Congresswoman, she is in her first term as US Senator to which she was elected by nearly 50 points. BS, JD Wyoming.
A few thoughts about the characteristics of the Democratic and Republican incumbents.
More of the Democrats attended colleges and universities that could be identified as elite – Ivy League or Ivy League adjacent, but both groups of Senators include more than a few graduates of elite colleges and universities. Far more the Republicans had previous experience in business, some of them so successful financially that it is laughable to think of the Democrats as more elite than they are.
The most vulnerable Democrat
Jon Ossoff of Georgia. So long as Georgia Republicans keep clearing the voting rolls of infrequent voters, Democrats will remain a voting minority in a state where they are probably a majority. Jon Ossoff may face a principal architect of that voting roll strategy, Governor Brian Kemp.
Other vulnerable Democrats
Gary Peters of Michigan. Michigan is a Democratic state, but just barely.
Tina Smith of Minnesota. Smith’s experience, until her election, was as a staffer or as an appointee. She may never be an automatic winner.
Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire. At 79, will she run again? You have to love a moderate Democratic New Hampshire US Senator who was born in Missouri, went to high school in Selinsgrove, Pennsylvania, graduated from Shippensburg University in Pennsylvania, got a political science master’s degree in Mississippi, and taught school in that state before moving to New Hampshire to sell used jewelry to tourists with her husband.
Maybe John Hickenlooper of Colorado. Colorado has become pretty solidly Democratic – more like Washington and Oregon than its neighbors (Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Kansan), though maybe a little like its neighbor New Mexico.
The most vulnerable Republicans
Thom Tillis of North Carolina is a very conservative Senator in a swing state. Except that North Carolina has not demonstrated that it is a swing state in a US Senate campaign for a while. The last Democratic Senator from North Carolina was Kay Hagen, who was elected to a single term in 2018.
Other Vulnerable Republicans
Of course, to regain control of the Senate, assuming the current Senate is 53-47, Democrats need to successfully defend all their seats and flip four.
Joni Ernst of Iowa. She has seemed vulnerable in past elections, but has won each.
Roger Marshall of Kansas. Kansas has elected and reelected a Democratic governor. One of its four Members of Congress is a Democrat, and it almost elected another Democratic Member.
Susan Collins of Maine. Icon as she is, she is the last Republican Senator in New England.
Lindsay Graham of South Carolina. While it is hard to imagine South Carolina electing a Democrat to anything state wide, it is equally difficult to understand how Lindsay Graham continues to survive politically.
Whoever runs in Kentucky, maybe. Kentucky has elected a Democratic father and son as governor to serve 16 of the last 20 years as Governor – but hardly any other Democrats.
