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October 29th , 2024                                          Len’s Political Note #682 Last minute giving to congressional candidates

2024                                                                       General Election

 

We know who to give money to:  Kamala Harris for President and Tim Walz for Vice President. DONATE

We know the Senate candidates to give money to:  The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents:

  • Jon Tester of Montana. DONATE
  • Sherrod Brown of Ohio. DONATE

The Democrats who could flip a Republican Senate seat:

  • Dan Osborn of Nebraska. DONATE
  • Colin Allred of Texas. DONATE
  • Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Florida. DONATE.

A couple of incumbents who have begun to seem more vulnerable, incumbents who face challengers with nearly unlimited personal money.

  • Bob Casey of Pennsylvania. DONATE
  • Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. DONATE

Here, roughly in order, are Democratic candidates for Congress we should give last minute money to.  We can help these candidates get out the vote.  Democratic candidates are on the left below and in bold.  October polls from 538 are noted where possible because polls are more accurate closer to election day. Polls funded by a candidate or his or her party are less reliable because they have a political purpose.  Polls funded by neutral organizations are noted as are polls funded by the Republicans or the Democrats. Financial information is based on September 30 reports as indicated by Open Secrets.  Take a look.  Consider helping these candidates with some last-minute money. And, I have to say, with some embarrassment, consider that I have not included information about PAC support for Democrats.  By the time we have our next elections, I hope I will have a handle on how to get that information easily and quickly,

Tier 1  Protect Democratic Seats. These ten incumbents and candidates for current Democratic seats would put to good use last minute donations.

 Nevada 04 Inc Steven Horsford v Mayor John Lee.  A poll in August showed Horsford well ahead, but the September 30 financials are shocking: Horsford $200,000, Lee $100,000. Horsford is currently the head of the Congressional Black Caucus.  We do not want to see him lose.  DONATE TO HORSFORD.

Washington 03 Inc Marie Gluesenkamp Perez v Activist Joe Kent. Democratic October poll: Even at 46%. Perez $600,000, Kent $200,000. Perez is a graduate of Reed.  She and her husband opened a garage to repair cars and trucks while she sought to repair the world as a moderate Democrat.  Kent joined the army at 18 and became a member of the special forces. He left the military to work for the CIA.  After his wife, also in the military, was killed in a bombing in Manbij, Syria, he left the CIA to work for right wing causes. DONATE TO PEREZ

Virginia 10 Delegate Suhas Subramanyam v Attorney and Business Executive Mike Clancy. No recent poll.  Subramanyam $400,000, Clancy $300,000. The Democratic incumbent, Jennifer Weston, is retiring due to illness. Replace her with Democrat Subramanyam. DONATE

Ohio 13 Inc Emilia Sykes v Former State Senator Kevin Coughlin. Republican October poll: Coughlin +1. Sykes $300,000, Coughlin $500,000.  From a deeply embedded African American Akron political family, Sykes has a strong base, but the district includes more than her base. The Republican funded poll is troubling enough to warrant spending a little.  DONATE TO SYKES.

Pennsylvania 17 Inc Chris Deluzio v State Rep Robert Mercuri.  Democratic October poll: Deluzio +4. Deluzio $400,000, Mercuri $300,000. These financials are insufficient for an incumbent in a swing district. Keep Deluzio in Congress.  DONATE.

California 47 State Sen Dave Min v Republican Party leader Scott Baugh.  Republican October poll: Baugh +3. On 10/16 Min $500,000, Baugh $1 million. The Democratic incumbent, Katie Porter, ran for the US Senate, but came in third in the top two non-partisan primary.  Keep this seat Democratic.  DONATE TO MIN.

Nevada 01 Inc Dina Titus v Businessman Ron Quince. No polls, Titus $600,000, Quince $1.3 million. Quince has been a successful local entrepreneur and has raised a lot of money.  Titus came to Nevada to be an academic and teach history.  She continues to teach, but she became the rare Nevada Democratic politician not dependent on the late Senator Harry Reid.  Keep her in the House.  DONATE

Maine 02 Inc Jared Golden v State Rep and auto racing driver Austin Theriault Republican October poll: Theriault +2, neutral October poll: Even. Golden $1.1 million, Theriault $700,000.  Golden was initially elected by virtue of ranked voting.  He has hung on in a very Republican district as one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, though he is not conservative about abortion rights.  Keep Golden in Congress.  DONATE.

Michigan 07 Former State Sen Curtis Hertel v Former State Sen Thomas Barrett.  Republican October poll Barrett +4. Hertel $1.2 million, Barrett $500,000. Hertel is seeking to replace Elissa Slotkin, who is running for the Senate.  This is a tough seat to keep Democratic.  Help Hertel do just that.  DONATE.

New York 18 Inc Pat Ryan v Former Lt. Gov candidate Allison Esposito, Neutral October poll Ryan +5. Ryan $900,000, Esposito $500,000.  Ryan is the only Democrat who made it through 2022 successfully in a New York swing district. DONATE.

Tier 1 Flip Republican seats. Here are 20 seats where a donation could make a difference. 

Colorado 04 Political writer Trisha Calvarese v Inc of CO 03 Lauren Boebert. No polls.  On 10/16 $300,000 each.  CO 04 is a very Republican district in eastern Colorado to which the extreme right Boebert escaped when it appeared she would lose her CO 03 seat.  Boebert is vulnerable because no one likes a carpet bagger.  Calvarese returned home from DC to care for her parents. Help her rid us of one of the most embarrassing Members of Congress.  DONATE TO CALVARESE.

Florida 13 Transportation official Whitney Fox v Inc Anna Paulina Luna.  Neutral October poll: Even at 46%. Republican October poll: Luna +6, On 10/16 Fox $100,000, Luna $300,000.  Only luck has prevented shape shifting Luna from being another George Santos. She has multiple origin stories and explanations of her life.  Fox, who worked in public transportation, could win this race.  DONATE TO FOX.

New York 22 State Sen John Mannion v Inc Brandon Williams. Republican October poll:  Even at 46%. Mannion $500,000, Williams $300,000.  Former local school district union president, he is running against a wealthy incumbent with Texas roots who is only loosely connected to the district.  DONATE TO MANNION.

Oregon 05 State Sen Janelle Bynum v Inc Lori Chavez-DeRemer.  No recent polls.  Democratic September poll: Bynum +2.  Bynum $500,000, Chavez-DeRemer $600,000.  A graduate of an historically Black university, Bynum was an engineer for GM who, with her husband, reconsidered their lives after 9/11.  They moved to his home in Oregon, took over his mother’s fast food franchise chain, and settled in.  In State Senate races, Bynum twice defeated Chavez-DeRemer.  Help Bynum do that again.  DONATE.

California 13 State Sen Adam Gray v Inc John Duarte. No October polls. Democratic funded September poll: Gray +1. On 10/16 Gray $800,000, Duarte $1 million. Son of a family with a dairy supply business, Gray was more interested in politics than the family business. He is taking on the scion of a family with a large, corporate-type farm.  Help Gray. DONATE.

California 22 Former Assemblyman Rudy Salas v Inc David Valadao. No October polls. There are two neutral September polls: Even in one, Salas +4 in the other.  On 10/16 Salas $600,000, Valadao $900,000.  The first Latino City Councilor in Bakersfield, Salas is running against the scion of a family with a large corporate-type farm.  Help Salas.  DONATE.

 Arizona 01. State Rep and physician Amish Shah v Inc. David Schweikert. No October polls. An August poll had Shah +1.  On 10/16 Shah $800,000, Schweikert $400,000.  Once again, the Democrats seek to oust Schweikert who is often in trouble with the Ethics committee for misusing campaign funds.  Shah, a South Asian who grew up in Chicago, defeated a slew of Democrats to be the 2024 Democratic candidate.  He spent a lot of resources to win the primary, but seems to be in slightly better financial shape than Schweikert.  Let’s make it a victory this time.  DONATE TO SHAH.

Nebraska 02 State Sen Tony Vargas v Inc Don Bacon.  No October polls, but neutral September polls had Vargas up by as much as 6 points.  Vargas $900,000, Bacon $600,000. Help Vargas stay in the lead.  DONATE.

Pennsylvania 10 Former Television Anchor Janelle Stelson v Inc Scott Perry. Neutral October poll: Stelson +8.  Stelson $700,000, Perry $500,000.  Perry was one of the principal congressional figures in Trump’s effort to stage what became the January 6 coup attempt. Stelson is a former Republican who local Democrats were happy to welcome to their party.  DONATE TO STELSON.

Wisconsin 08 Ob-Gyn Kristin Lyerly v. Businessman Tony Wied.  No polls.  Lyerly $600,000, Wied $300,000.  Lyerly is an advocate for reproductive rights. Wied is a Trump endorsed businessman who describes himself as an outsider.  DONATE TO LYERLY.

Virginia 02 Community leader Missy Cotter Smasel v. Inc Jen Kiggans. Democratic October poll: Eve; Neutral October poll: Kiggans +1.  Smasel $200,000, Kiggans $800,000.  Until the Democratic incumbent was ousted in 2022 by Kiggans, Smasel was a community volunteer.  Among other things, she organized a marathon intended to honor military men and women who were killed in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Whether to call Kiggans victory an opportunity or a cause for anger depends on your view, but Smasal decided to run to oust Kiggans.  Kiggans has sought to be a Republican light – supporting a national ban on abortion after the 15thmonth, refusing to claim the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, but calling for an audit of Virginia’s 2020 vote. DONATE TO SMASEL.  It could make a difference.

Virginia 05 Businesswoman Gloria Witt v Trainer and former Navy SEAL John McGuire.  No poll.  Witt $100,000, McGuire $100,000.  McGuire is the Republican nominee after a close and bitter primary battle with the incumbent who was equally far right, but less willing to go along with his party.  Can Witt win in this 60-40 Youngkin district?  The primary and McGuire’s roughly 500 primary vote win might suppress the vote just enough.  DONATE TO WITT.

Wisconsin 03 Businesswoman and non-profit head Rebecca Cooke v Inc Derrick Van Orden.  Democratic October poll: Cooke +1.  Cooke $400,000, Van Orden $1.1 million.  Cooke is a young local entrepreneur and organizer who has demonstrated extraordinary energy.  Van Orden is a first term Member of Congress who has been carelessly dismissive and denigrating to young people and ohers. DONATE TO COOKE.

Iowa 01 Professor Christina Bohannan v Inc Marianette Miller-Meeks. October Democratic poll: Bohannan +4. Bohannan $800,000, Miller-Meeks $1.5 million.  Bohannan grew up poor in Florida, worked her way through school to get a BA and a JD from the University of Florida.  She got a job at the University of Iowa, became president of the Faculty Senate, was elected as a state rep in Iowa, and was never seen as anything other than a very smart figure who did not suffer fools.  Miller-Meeks ran three times for Congress before being elected by nine votes.  Unsurprisingly, she has been a cautious politician.  DONATE TO BOHANNAN

New York 19 Attorney Josh Riley v Inc Marc Molinaro. One Neutral and one Democratic October poll: Riley +3 and +4.  Riley $1.1 million, Molinaro $700,000.  In private practice and as Al Franken’s Senate attorney (well before Franken’s controversial exit), Riley has focused on helping the disadvantaged to get the services they needed.  Molinaro has focused on taking positions that were moderate rather than radical Republican positions.  DONATE TO RILEY

Arizona 06. Professor Kirsten Engel v Inc Juan Ciscomani.  No poll since August when a Democratic Poll had Engel +1.  On 10/16 Engel $1.3 Million, Ciscomani $1.2 Million. She is a national known expert on climate law and a former State Rep and State Senator.  He had been an advisor to governor Doug Ducey on border issues.  Take the long view.  DONATE TO ENGEL.

New York 01 Television celebrity and author John Avlon v Inc Nick LaLota.  Neutral October poll: LaLota +3, Republican October: poll LaLota +10.  Avlon $1 million, LaLota $900,000. If Long Island becomes a little less Republican, Avlon, who has made a career of being in the middle of the road in his commentaries and his books, could win.  DONATE.

New York 04 Former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen v Inc Anthony D’Esposito.  Oddly, two neutral October polls differed:  D’Esposito +1 in one poll, Gillen +12 in the other.  Gillen $1.8 million, D’Esposito $1.2 million. Former supervisor of the town of Hempstead, Gillen is a lawyer and politician who, before going to law school,  worked on Broadway in New York and with Mother Theresa in India.  D’Esposito is a former New York cop who brags about his arrests.  DONATE TO GILLEN.

California 27 Space expert George Whitesides v Inc Mike Garcia.  No recent polls.  On 10/16 Whitesides $1 million, Garcia $1.8 million. Mike Garcia is finally getting an opponent whose principal experience is not as a school board member.  Whitesides is a former NASA Chief of Staff and CEO of Virgin Galactic.  A little more money won’t hurt.  DONATE.

California 41 Former Prosecutor Will Rollins v Inc Ken Calvert. Democratic October poll: Even.  On 10/16 Rollins $2.3 million, Calvert $1.8 million. After a career mostly prosecuting national security related crimes, Rollins, a gay man, and his partner moved to Palm Springs as Rollins contemplated a political future.  Somehow, Calvert has not yet joined the 21st century on issues that range from same sex marriage to women’s right to control their bodies.  Has CA 41 changed enough to oust Calvert and elect Rollins?  Help make that change.  DONATE TO ROLLINS.

Tier 2 – Sixteen Other Democratic incumbents who could be helped

 Alaska AL                 Mary Peltola

California 21            Jim Costa

Colorado 08             Yadira Caraveo

Connecticut 05       Jahana Hayes

Kansas 03                Sharice Davids

Illinois 06                  Sean Casten

Nevada 03                Susie Lee

New Jersey 07        Sue Altman

New Mexico 02        Gabe Vasquez

New York 17            Mondaire Jones

North Carolina 01   Don Davis

Ohio 09                     Marcy Kaptur

Oregon 06                Andrea Salinas

Pennsylvania 07     Susan Wild

Pennsylvania 08     Matt Cartwright

Texas 34                   Vicente Gonzalez

 

Tier 2 – Democrats who could flip a Republican Seat

 Arizona 02                Native Ameircan leader Jonathan Nez

Florida 15                 County Official Patricia Kemp

Florida 27                 School Board Member Lucia Baez-Geller

Indiana 05                Think Tank Staffer Deborah Pickett

Iowa 03                      US Agriculture Department Official Lanon Baccam

Montana 01              Activist Monica Tranel

Nebraska 02            State Senator Tony Vargas

Texas 15                   Businesswoman Michelle Vallejo

Virginia 07                Former NSC Official Eugene Vindman

Wisconsin 01          State Official Peter Barca

A final word about the tiers.  This has nothing to do with candidate quality.  It has to do with where the last minute money is likely to do the most good.  To the closest races.  To races where the additional money would give the Democrat an edge.  Help us be assured of a Democratic House of Representatives while we elect Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and while we protect the Democratic Senate.