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September 11th , 2024 Len’s Political Note #669 Arizona state legislature
2024 General Election
Arizona’s House of Representatives has 31 Republicans and 29 Democrats. That’s close.
Arizona’s State Senate has 16 Republicans and 14 Democrats. That’s also close.
An explanatory word about Arizona’s state legislature. There are 30 Senate Districts. Each Senate District elects one Senator and two members of the House of Representatives.
CNalysis projects a shift in the House of Representatives. If the 2024 election goes as CNalysis anticipates, the House will have 32 Democrats and 28 Republicans. My analysis of CNalysis suggests Democrats will need to win the seats described below.
Term limits. Arizona state legislators are limited to no more than four consecutive two year terms in the seat and district they are elected to. This limitation may have been intended to ensure there is a constant rotation of new civilians into the legislature, but there are countervailing pressures. Redistricting every 10 years can move a legislator from one district to another. Having three members of the legislature – two in the House and one in the Senate – within a single district — appears to invite legislators approaching their term limit to shift the position for which they run.
Lower House
CNalysis Projects 32 Democrats and 28 Republicans
Looking at CNalysis’ organization of seats by vulnerability, it appears that Democrat success is less a matter of organizing to flip Republican seats than it is ensuring that some vulnerable Democratic incumbents do not lose.
We will look at District 4 where there currently is a Democratic iincumbent and a Republican incumbent; at District 16 where there is a Democratic incumbent to protect and at District 17 where there is a Democratic seat to protect.
Arizona House of Representatives – Seats to Secure
District 4.
Kelli Butler Karen Gresham
Kelli Butler owns and manages a dental clinic. She was first elected to District 26 of the Arizona House of Representatives in 2016. Her eight years are up and she is now running in District 4. Both Arizona Legislative Districts are near each other in Maricopa County, the enormous county that includes Phoenix, the fifth largest city in the United States.
Kelli Butler’s husband Ben is the dentist. She persists in politics, in part, because of her initial experience in the legislature. She and her freshmen colleagues came to committee meetings prepared. They were ready to address each bill to be considered. Except they were told they asked too many questions. The committee had to move along. Achieving Democratic control means, to her, treating each bill with due respect.
For Kelli Butler, education issues were among the most important. She sought to resist Arizona’s move to a universal voucher system, a system which appeared to be intended to help unregulated private schools rather than to support inadequately funded public schools. Voting rules have been another important issue for her. She says that 95% of Arizonans vote by mail. (That percent is a little high. 75% might be more accurate). The Republican majority would restrict early voting. Kelli Butler sees important changes if Democrats can control the House.
Women’s reproductive health care was an important legislative issue that has been taken out of the legislature’s hands. A referendum in November will consider abortion rights. Even if the referendum passes, only a Democratic majority will end legislative maneuvering about the issue. For instance, notwithstanding all the signatures collected by Arizona citizens, Republicans succeeded in having the public description of the referendum describe an “unborn human being” rather than a fetus.
A graduate of Arizona State, Karen Gresham is an accountant, who has worked for Deloitte and for Phelps Dodge. She retired to be at home with her children (her three sons now). She is not entirely retired from public life. Karen Gresham has been President of the Governing Board of the Madison Elementary School District. She describes herself as passionate about public education and about non-profits. She reports that she had raised more than $100,000 for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society of Arizona, a group to which she feels a debt for the help they provided when her mother died from leukemia. Primarily, though, her issue is public education. Based on her role as Board President, she explains that she knows what schools need.
There are two Republicans in this contest. Matt Gress is the incumbent in this race for two seats. An Oklahoman, a Truman Scholar from the University of Oklahoma, a graduate of Teach for America, and a gay man, he was Republican Governor Doug Ducey’s director of strategic planning and budgeting. In the legislature, he has proposed a $10,000 raise for teachers, sponsored a bill that became law to provide compensation to mobile home owners displaced by development, and was the only Republican to vote to repeal Arizona’s 19th century law prohibiting abortion. Republicans removed him from his committee in retaliation. To offset those issues from which he differs from members of his party, he says his most important issues now are border security, public safety, and reducing inflation.
Pamela Carter is the other Republican candidate. She is the great granddaughter of a Mexican immigrant, the daughter of a real estate broker, and the owner of sports medicine and weight training facility. For nearly 20 years, she has had a fitness program on the national TBN network. Her principal issues include election integrity (cleaning the voting rolls or people who have died or moved out of state), public safety (as opposed to what she describes as radical Democrats like those of San Francisco who do not support their police), and the economy (She explains that Arizona is the country’s fastest growing state because “we have cut taxes and regulations and welcome corporations).
I urge you to DONATE TO KELLI BUTLER AND KAREN GRESHAM. VOLUNTEER FOR THEM IF YOU CAN. I have no strategy between them to recommend. Democrats need to keep their one Democratic seat in this district.
District 16
Democratic Incumbent Keith Seaman needs to be reelected if Democrats are to achieve the majority that CNalysis projects. A teacher, principal and county school superintendent, in retirement he was first elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2022, winning by a .62% margin. He tells us and his constituents the following about his schools and himself: “Every morning we recited the Pledge of Allegiance. The last words always stuck with me: “with liberty and justice for all.” His most important issues include: fully investing in public education, ensuring that everyone has a voice by expanding access to the ballot box and protecting voting rights and the sanctity of elections, as well as ensuring that every American has access to health care including prescription drugs.
Keith Seamans has two Republican opponents. He has to get more votes than at least one of them. Teresa Martinez, the daughter of a coal miner, who was elected to a full term in 2022, is the majority whip and an opponent of abortion. Her other priorities are are ensuring the success of the economy and the availability of jobs. Chris Lopez owns a food truck. He describes himself as having spent his life upholding conservative values.
Help Keith Seamans. DONATE. VOLUNTEER
District 17
Kevin Volk has credentials. And family connections. He was born and raised near Tucson where his grandfather earned his money in commercial real estate and his father formalized that work by creating the Volk Company. In addition to graduating Summa from Brown, Kevin Volk taught for a year in Mexico supported by a Fulbright. After working as Director of New Media for Tim Kaine’s reelection bid in 2012, he returned home to be the business manager for CJ Volk’s Citron Paint & Design. That is his mother’s business, I think. CJ Volk created colors for paint company and began restoring houses in Tucson. Next, he spent nearly 10 years working in various roles at the Volk Company – from involvement in new construction to working on sales to leasing properties. While doing that work, he also founded his own company – Vivablox, which converted shipping containers into affordable housing.
His leading campaign issues in this run for the state legislature are bringing the cost of housing down, investing in education, ensuring that Arizona has water for the future, and restoring reproductive freedom in the state.
Kevin Volk has to gain more votes than one of the Republican incumbents. Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones emerged from a five person Republican primary to win election in 2022. McGarry has worked as a pest control technician. He describes himself as a conservative fighter who believes government should protect freedoms by being pro-life, pro-family, and pro-religious freedom. A graduate of Metropolitan State in Denver, Rachel Jones proposed that the Arizona governor appoint the electors supporting the winner of the Republican primary to offset what she sees as having been the illegal election results of 2020. She would also ban no excuse early voting by mail. Prior to entering politics, Rachel Jones worked for UPS.
Help Kevin Volk oust one of the Republicans from the House of Representatives. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Arizona State Senate – Seats to keep in th Senate
CNalysis projects a state senate in Arizona with 16 Democrats and 13 Republicans. They see one seat as a toss-up, Win the blue-leaning seat in District 23 that gets Arizona Democrats to 15 seats. Win the light blue seat in District 4 that puts Arizona Democrats over 15 seats. And win the toss up seat that gives Arizona Democrats a comfortable majority.
Senate District 23. — The seat that gets Arizona Democrats to 15, half of the State Senate.
Brian Fernandez is the incumbent for District 23, covering Arizona’s southwestern border. Brian Fernandez was appointed to replace his mother in that seat when she became Director of Rural Development for the US Agriculture Department. In addition to founding and running a software company, he has been active in the campaigns of several Arizona Democrats. In the Democratic primary, he defeated, by a 20 point margin, Jesus Lugo, Jr. a social justice advocate who ran to his left. In his campaign website, Brian Fernandezstresses support for education, especially vocational education opportunities, strengthening infrastructure from water to bridges, and improving the economy including greater reliance on alternative fuels.
Brian Fernandez’s Republican opponent is Michelle Altherr. Ex military, she advocates for one day voting and for protecting the children. Regarding the former, she cites Proverbs 29.2: “When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice, but when the wicked beareth rule,, the people mourn.” For the latter, she cites Mark 9:42: “And whosoever shall offend of these little ones that believe in me, it is better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and he were cast into the sea.”
Help ensure that Brian Fernandez wins this race. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Senate District 4 – The seat that moves the Democrats into the majority with 16 seats.
Christine Marsh was the Arizona teacher of the year in 2016. An English teacher, she lost an election for state senate in 2018 by 267 votes and then defeated the incumbent in 2020 by 497 votes. She attended UCLA on a track scholarship, received her Master’s in Education from Grand Canyon University. Unsurprisingly, her principal issue is supporting education in Arizona.
Christine Marsh’s Republican opponent is Scottsdale School Board Member Carine Werner. Werner has advocated banning books in the district and came under particular criticism in July when she voted against a plan to return excess collected taxes. According to critics, the consequences of the vote would have been adverse. Borrowing using the consequent higher interest rates would have cost the district far more than any savings from keeping the money. Werner insists she would provide common-sense leadership, but does not persuade. Help Christine Marsh stay in the State Senate and help Democrats gain a majority. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Senate District 13 – The toss up seat that moves the Democrats well into the majority with 17 seats.
Sharon Winters is something of a celebrity. Not so much for her teaching. Although she has taught third grade in New Mexico and English at Brookhaven College in Texas. She is a celebrity for the books she has written. Her “Runtie the Desert Rat”, described as “a touching story about the wonders of nature…” was published in the Rodent Reader Quarterly. Her “Karl’s Diary: It’s a Dog’s Life” won the Literary Titan Award.
Sharon Winters is also a politician. She knows what her issues are – reproductive rights, public school financing, and ensuring that everyone eligible to vote has a right to vote. She is running against an incumbent, JD Mesnard, who lists his profession as a professor. He is an adjunct at Arizona State and Mesa Community College. Mesnard is completing his third term in the state senate and had previously completed his eight years maximum in the House, where he was Speaker for his last two years.
Mesnard is the founder of a Christian charity intended to help the destitute in the world. And he has his issues: He wants to make sure that Arizona stops “strangling” businesses with regulations and taxes and to make sure large corporations do not get special deals, that way the corporations will focus on “providing high wage jobs and quality products.” He is proud of having increased teacher pay by 20% over the course of his fourteen years in politics and having restored funds for supplies. He explains his commitment to fiscal integrity saying “we can’t have low taxes with reckless government spending.”
If we can get Sharon Winters elected, Arizona Democrats will have created a clear Democratic majority in the State Senate. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Arizona races with national implications.
Arizona (the incumbent is not running for reelection)
Congressman Ruben Gallego comes from a heavily Democratic district and is one of the more progressive candidates defending a Senate seat. A Republican-funded poll found him even with former Fox journalist Kari Lake. She is a skeptic about Trump’s loss in 2020 and her own loss in the Arizona governor’s race in 2022. Three neutrally funded polls in August showed him with leads that average 8 points. Ruben Gallego’s June 30 financial lead of $8 million to $2 million is probably an accurate representation of the state of the race. Complacency kills campaigns. Make no assumptions about this race. Help Ruben Gallego finish strong. DONATE. VOLUNTEER. See Len’s Political Note #544
Arizona is a big part of the Democratic effort to flip the House of Representatives
Flip Arizona 1 from Red to Blue
Amish Shah is he child of parents who had come to this country to study engineering, one was Hindu, the other Jain, Amish Shah was sent of Catholic school from kindergarten through high school. He credits two teachers for rescuing him from susceptibility to bullying.
Successful in high school, he went to Northwestern. After getting a BA at Northwestern, he got a medical degree there. Amish Shah worked for a consulting firm after medical school, got a Master’s Degree in public health and did a residency in emergency medicine in what he describes as New York City’s busiest Level I Trauma Center. He taught at Mt. Sinai medical school and developed an interest in sports medicine which brought him to Arizona where he had been awarded a fellowship. He worked at the Arizona branch of the Mayo Clinic and saw the possibility of affecting health policy by running for state Rep in the prosperous district where he lived.
A Democrat in the legislature, he voted in the 2016 Republican presidential. Primary – presumably to vote against Donald Trump. In the state legislature, Amish Shah made some progress in improving health care in Arizona. His legislation simplified the system of obtaining parental consent for medical procedures, allowing a prior general consent to be used for HIV testing, for instance. He also addressed local issues, leading an effort that would allow cities to ban fireworks after 11:00pm.
Now Amish Shah gets a chance to see if he can raise enough money to organize a campaign and to defeat an incumbent Republican. He may not have to attack the incumbent. Congressman David Schweikert’s ethical failings have been public and are well known. Schweikert paid a fine of $50,000 in 2020 for nearly a dozen campaign finance violations after he was investigated by the House Ethics Committee. In 2022, the Federal Elections Commission fined him $125,000 for misappropriating campaign funds. Who knows how many fines he will accumulate of he gets reelected
Amish Shah raised a total of $1. 5 million dollars, but spent most of it in the primary that had seven contenders. Schweikert raised $2.5 million dollars and has a lot of it left. On July 10, Amish Shah had $200,000 available for the rest of the campaign. The incumbent had $1.5 million.
Do your share to help vote David Schweikert out of the House. DONATE to the Amish Shah campaign. See Len’s Political Note #664.
Flip Arizona 6 from Red to Blue
Arizona 06 Kirsten Engel, a graduate of Brown with a law degree from Northwestern, is a named professor of law at the University of Arizona, a nationally recognized expert in legal issues related to the climate, and a former state rep and state senator in Arizona. In 2022, she ran for Arizona 06 and lost by a point and a half to Juan Ciscomani, an aide to former governor Doug Ducey. In a Democratic funded poll in July, Kirsten Engel led Ciscomani by a point. This will be a close race in 2024. Kirsten Engel had a modest lead in the financial race on July 10 — $3.2 million to $2.7 million. Stretch the financial lead and help Kirsten Engel win in November. DONATE. VOLUNTEER See Len’s Political Note #558
WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO WIN
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
As we look toward November, 2024, we see a brand new campaign. Harris and Trump are tied in Arizona at the end of August. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz need to keep on working in the southwest. They also need resources. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO KAMALA HARRIS AND TIM WALZ. VOLUNTEER.
