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July 25th  , 2024                   Len’s Political Note #659 John Mannion New York 22

2024                                         General Election

In 2018, Republican attorney and accountant Bob Antonacci ran to replace the previous incumbent John DeFrancisco, who had held that seat since 1992 and decided to make a run for governor.  Antonacci defeated Democrat John Mannion 51% to 49%. That was a close race.

So was 2020, when John Mannion ran again.  Bob Antonacci had become a judge. John Mannion ran and won against investment advisor Angi Renna, defeating her 53 – 47.  The next election in 2022, however, was particularly close.  John Mannion was now the incumbent.  His opponent was Angi Renna’s campaign manager, public relations professional and former owner of a mattress company, Rebecca Shiroff.  John Mannion won again, by 10 votes.

State Senator John Mannion had taught biology in the West Genesee Central School District.  He was also head of their teachers’ union.  Shortly before the Democratic primary in his current run for Congress, three former State Senate staffers filed a complaint against him claiming he created a toxic work atmosphere, that he yelled at them, called them names and retaliated against them.

People are rarely one-time offenders. Was there any indication of his having been abusive prior to being in the state Senate?  He taught AP biology and other biology and science courses.  He negotiated contracts, worked on problems with administrators, and worked with other teachers as well as, of course, teaching kids.  He did not have a reputation for yelling at students or colleagues.

When the district school superintendent resigned after allegations that he was having an affair with a school staff member, John Mannion, as head of the union, called for a clearer line between the social and professional lives in the workplace and said that lack of clarity has been an ongoing concern in the school district that had blurred lines which “have corrupted the integrity of past practices and decisions.” John Mannion and many of the 100 or so people who attended the board meeting when the resignation was announced called for greater openness of communication within the district. This all sounds like calm and rational discussion about a serious matter.

A few letters to the editor written in the context of the John Mannion’s Congressional campaign, unrelated to the senate staffers’ complaints, comment on the quality of his teaching and the following he had from students. Nothing in the public press relating to his work prior to being in the state Senate suggests that as a teacher he yelled at or demeaned kids or adults.

If the complaints about his behavior in the State Senate are bogus, there is no way of knowing who encouraged false complaints.  John Mannion’s Democratic primary opponent?  Because it had become clear in the run up to the primary that John Mannion was the front runner for the Democratic nomination, perhaps the Republican incumbent or Republicans in the state senate encouraged the complaints?

The investigation of the complaints will take its course.  John Mannion promises cooperation with the State Senate’s investigation.  He can’t be assured that the allegations will not affect his campaign against the incumbent Republican Congressman.

In his campaign for Congress, John Mannion notes that his grandparents moved from Ireland to central New York 100 years ago, that he and his wife, a reading teacher, had lived in the area for their entire lives, and that, after nearly 30 years of teaching, he wanted to affect the political circumstances in which he and his family and his colleagues live.  He touts achievements in the NY State senate: bringing chip maker Micron to Syracuse, creating the Syracuse airport police department, and further protecting women’s rights – referring to passing the NY ERA constitutional amendment which should go before the voters in November if Republican lawsuits don’t stop it.  He promises to have the same kind of focus in Congress.

The incumbent, Brandon Williams, was born in Texas.  His dad was a corporate lawyer and, for twelve years, chairman of the board of a real estate corporation. Brandon Williams joined the navy after college.  After the navy, he studied at the Wharton School at Penn in Philadelphia.  He subsequently worked as an investment banker, a corporate executive, and, with $2 million in assistance from the chairman of Jet Blue, founded and became the CEO of a software company called CPLANE.

Does Congressman Brandon Williams have any connection with central New York at all?  Sixteen years ago, he and his wife bought a 67 acre farm to grow lavender and truffles and to keep bees.  After spending fourteen years focusing on the farm, taking advantage of redistricting that seemed to work for him, Williams ran for election in Congress.  He is now finishing his first term in office.  When he announced his plan to run for a second term, Speaker Mike Johnson joined him at the $1,000 a plate fundraiser.

If you believe that Donald Trump is not that unusual; that accusations he makes against others are actually confessions, you might wonder if the source of the accusations against John Mannion arises from Brandon Williams or his allies.  LegiStorm, the website that researches and publishes information about income and personal matters of politicians and their staff reports that Brandon Williams had the third highest rate of staff turnover in Congress.  A former staff chief and campaign manager had a confrontation at a Christmas party that was not in the Christmas spirit.  The video records Williams threatening the staffer: “You f— with my family, I’ll end every relationship that you have, every single friend.  Do you understand me?  Do you understand me? You think I don’t know?”

If political positions are more relevant for considering whether or not to support an opponent, here is what Brandon Williams has to say.  He thinks socialism is the greatest threat to the United States.  Having homeschooled his children, he is an advocate of vouchers.  He opposes any effort to restrict or set controls on the purchase of firearms. He is still an advocate for building a wall across the US southern border, wants voter IDs as a requirement for voting, and believes abortions should be prohibited, with some exceptions. He compares the January 6 hearings to Moscow show trials.

Brandon Williams is vulnerable in this election.  He won in 2022 by a 1 point margin – 50.5 to 49.5.  There are no polls for this district.  Money is a different matter.  On June 30, John Mannion had $300,000.  Brandon Williams had $1.4 million.  And he has nearly unlimited funds in his unofficial pocket.  One other  thing, though. Brandon Williams is unlikely to get financial support from his father, who is active in social justice issues in Dallas. Their politics are worlds apart.  Let’s help John Mannion compete.  DONATE.  If he can compete, he will win.

OTHER COMPETITIVE NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL SEATS’

NY 01 Author, editor, journalist, and centerist John Avlon has announced, in effect, that the political center of American politics is in the Democratic party.  A founder of the No Labels group, he abandoned them when they began to consider running a presidential candidate.  He won the Democratic primary by more than a 2-1 margin.  He will be a formidable opponent to incumbent Nick LaLota, whose idea about politics appears to be, pummel and easy opponent and follow Donald Trump attacking immigrants.

There are no polls for this race. In 2022, LaLota won by a 55-45 margin.   On June 30, LaLota had $2.2 million to John Avlon’s $600,000.  John Avlon can contribute his own resources, has well-heeled supporters, and has you.  DONATE Every dollar will make a difference.

NY 04 Former Democratic Supervisor of Hempstead Laura Gillen v incumbent Republican Anthony D’Esposito.  Laura Gillen is a local. After college, she tried Broadway – unsuccessfully. She traveled, worked with Mother Theresa, and returned home for law school.  She practiced law in the City and on Long island and was a one term Supervisor of Hampstead, a town of 800,000 people.

As Supervisor, she reduced taxes, restructured the town’s debt, passed ethics reform, and ran for Congress.  She is running for the second time against Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito. He was a New York City police detective who boasts of the number of his arrests and against whom there were more complaints than average.  He insists on his law and order credentials, but Laura Gillen insists you can’t really be for law and order while being soft on guns.  Help Laura Gillen win this 50% white, wealthy, Nassau County district that Joe Biden carried in 2020 56 – 42.   DONATE.  Flip this Republican seat. She is more than competitive financially with $2.million  on June 30 to the incumbent’s $2.2 million.  See Len’s Political Note #586

NY 17 Former Democratic Congressman Mondaire Jones v. incumbent Republican Michael Lawler. Mondaire Jones grew up in Rockland County and returns to this Rockland and Westchester County district that he gave up to then DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney rather than contest a primary.  Maloney lost to Assemblyman and political operative Mike Lawler in the 2022 general election.

Lawler appears to have demonstrated his political experience and deviousness by organizing (though he denies it) the registration of hundreds of Rockland County Hasidim to join the Working Families Party to prevent Mondaire Jones from getting that progressive party endorsement.  Lawler (though he denies it) also appears to have organized advertisements focused on district progressives criticizing moderate voting by Mondaire Jones and his endorsement of County Executive George Latimer in the neighboring district primary.  Help Mondaire Jones flip this now Republican seat. DONATE He, too, is competitive financially in this expensive race.  Mondaire Jones had $4.3 million on June 30; the incumbent had $3.9 million.  See Len’s Political Note #579

NY 18 Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan v 2020 Republican Lt. Governor nominee Allison EspositoIf we are going to flip Republican seats to gain Democratic control of the House, we also need to protect endangered incumbents.  Pat Ryan is a former Army intelligence officer, businessman, and county executive.  He represents a diagonal district running from the New Jersey to Connecticut border including Poughkeepsie and Newburgh.

With a record of supporting both business and the environment while serving as County Executive, his victory in a special election for Congress was attributed to his support for women’s reproductive rights after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. Keep a Democratic seat in this district that Joe Biden carried in 2020.  DONATE. Pat Ryan is well ahead in fund raising.  On June 30, he had $3.5 million to his challenger’s $700,000.See Len’s Political Note #545

NY 19 Democratic attorney Josh Riley v Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro.  Josh Riley came home after a career as a mostly political attorney, working with a firm in Florida, working as Al Franken’s chief attorney early in his Senate tenure.  No one has been a bigger support of Josh Riley than Al Franken.

Molinaro defeated Josh Riley by 5,000 votes in 2022.  The contest for this district that stretches from south of Albany west half way across the state is not at all friendly.  Molinaro is the rare Republican who supports some abortion rights. He attacks Riley for having lived and worked out of state.  Riley reminds people he is in the fifth generation of his family to live in Broome County and accuses Molinaro has failing to solve problems. While Molinaro complains illegal immigrants crossing the southern border, Josh Riley points to the Molinaro and the House failure to pass the border proposal that accompanied support for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

 

WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO WIN

Kamala Harris

The presidential election has been transformed with Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Demonstrating that Joe Biden’s endorsement is not a coronation, Kamala Harris has been working the phones.  The result has been endorsements from nearly every national Democratic official and an outpouring of financial support.

Donald Trump complains that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have committed fraud.  They tricked him in focusing the entire Republican convention on opposing Joe Biden. He has to start his campaign all over.  As they flounder in response, it is not clear that they can.

Join the fun.  Help  Kamala Harris’s campaign. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference.  Larger donations mean more money for the campaign.  But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate.  Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one.  DONATE TO \KAMALA HARRIS.