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July 13th , 2024 Len’s Political Note #656 Pat Kemp Florida 15
2024 General Election
Could the third time be a charm? Adam Hattersley, about whom I wrote for the 2020 election did not make it out of the Democratic primary for Florida 15. Alan Cohn made it out of the primary, lost, and ran again in 2022. I wrote in his support for Florida 15. A lot of good that did. He lost 58-42.
I am again writing about Florida 15, still believing that this district should be a swing district. This time I am supporting Democrat Pat Kemp. Democrats are expecting a huge turnout because of the referendum on adding abortion protection to the Florida constitution. And this is a presidential election year. And Florida may have a tight US Senate race.
The referendum is not a slam dunk. Florida’s constitution requires a 60% yes vote to add a constitutional amendment via referendum. The Yes on 4 people are so intent on getting the referendum passed, so unwilling to dilute their focus that when I asked who was organizing to defeat the two Supreme Court Justices whose term of office is up and who the voters have to agree to retain, the response was that they had no time for that. Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso had voted both to confirm the constitutionality of current statutes prohibiting abortion in Florida and to prevent a vote on the proposed referendum to change the constitution to create a right to an abortion.
There is more that will be coming before the people. Floridians will vote for President of the United States along with the rest of us. While most people cede Florida to the Republican candidate, not everyone does.
Florida has a Republican US Senator up for election. Some polls suggest this will be a very close race.
When Pat Kemp entered the race for Florida 15 the Republican incumbent seemed to be in trouble. Laurel Lee is a first term Member of Congress who had a quarrel with Donald Trump. He was angry because she had supported Ron DeSantis for President and threatened to run an opponent in the primary against her. Any normal politician would have expected her to support DeSantis. Governor DeSantis had appointed her as Florida’s Secretary of State. She was a sitting judge appointed to that role by then Governor Rick Scott. Governor Ron DeSantis chose her to replace the elected Secretary of State who had resigned. Recent photographs had surfaced of him attending a Halloween Party in blackface portraying a victim of Hurricane Katrina.
In the end, no serious primary opponent for Laurel Lee surfaced. Trump and Lee found a way to put their disagreements behind them. Lee’s campaign website now shows her has a devoted follower of the former president.
Pat Kemp is an easy type of person recognize. She’s the one who does the volunteer work. She chaired the Board for Tampa Crossroads, for instance. They assist veterans, work on ensuring housing for veterans and others, help people with job coaching and career training. She co-founded a neighborhood association that ensured that the Old Seminole Heights neighborhood prospered. She joined the Sierra Club and worked on environmental issues.
Volunteering was transformed initially into public communications as Pat Kemp did a public radio stint and, subsequently, into politics. She ran for the Hillsborough County Commission, a seven member body with positions elected by district and three elected county-wide. This is not small potatoes. Hillsborough County includes the City of Tampa, communities on the east side of Tampa Bay and inland east of Tampa. The county’s population is in the range of a million and a half people. The Commission oversees issues that range from early childhood to transportation to housing.
The Commission is not immune to partisan politics. It has had Republican majorities and Democratic majorities. Pat Kemp has served as Commission Chair during Democratic majorities.
Nor is the Commission immune to the influence of Governor DeSantis. He recently filled a vacancy on the Commission, naming a local Chamber of Commerce CEO as a district member. When the Commission had the opportunity to spend from a defunct transportation surtax, the governor specified that the money be returned to those whose refund requests were legitimate and not be spent on any public transit projects. As a result, it could not be used to assist the financially strapped county transit agency. Pat Kemp, an environmentalist, moved the commission to spend those funds on hiking trails.
Pat Kemp may have decided to run for Congress because she felt properly trained for the complications of being a Member of Congress by her decade on the County Commission or because she thought politics in Congress would be less Byzantine than County Commission politics.
Does Pat Kemp stand a chance? Florida 15 is northeast of Tampa and includes the eastern section of Hillsborough County. Those voters are familiar with Pat Kemp who has been elected county-wide. Pat Kemphas a serious connection to and supporter in the neighboring Member of Congres. She served as chief aide to now Congresswoman Kathy Castor when she was on the Hillsborough County Commission.
Pat Kemp brings her interest in conservation to the campaign as well as her serious commitment to addressing climate change – no small matter to people near Florida’s coast. Pat Kemp’s particular interests include commitments to public transportation and to an increased level of reliance on solar power.
Laurel Lee will not have to spend as much of the $800,000 she reported on March 15 on the primary as was initially anticipated. Pat Kemp is starting from scratch. She is a popular figure, generally regarded as powerful in local politics. And that referendum will help Pat Kemp. You can help, too. DONATE
Florida campaigns
The most important campaign is the referendum on including abortion protection in the state constitution. That type of referendum has drawn out voters in many states. There is a real possibility that the US Senate race will be close. Because the house districts are so gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans there are few House seat races that will be close. We will need to wait for primary results in a very few cases, to see which Democrat is running for a competitive seat. Below are campaigns to which I encourage donations.
Yes on 4. The campaign to incorporate protection for abortions into the state constitution is coordinated by an organization called Yes on 4. DONATE
Oppose retention of Florida Supreme Court Justices Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso. Both Justices took positions that confirmed that Florida currently prohibits abortions except under limited circumstances and attempted to block the referendum to incorporate protection of the right to abortion into the Florida constitution.
US Senate.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is a one term congresswoman who had emigrated with her mother and sisters from Ecuador to California and moved came to Florida as an adult. She worked as a development person for non-profits, won a congressional seat she was not expected to win, then lost in the next term. She has been the favorite of the Democratic establishment to take on Rick Scott – a multimillionaire and two-term governor of Florida seeking his second term as Senator. He made a famous proposal to require many existing, continuing programs be subject to a Congressional vote every five years – among them social security and Medicare.
Scott defeated an incumbent Democratic Senator in 2018 50.05 to 49.93. In 2022, incumbent Republican Marco Rubio defeated his Senate challenger 57.66 to 41.27. In early June, there were two polls. One found Scott leading among likely voters by 13 points, 46-33. The other found Scott leading among likely voters by 2 points, 45-43. New financial reports will be out soon, but as of March 31, Scott had $3.8 million, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell had $2.8 million. Scott’s millions do not count the money he can take out of his pocket whenever he wants to. With help Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could win this race. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #598
House of Representatives
Florida 09
Darren Soto has represented this district south of Orlando since 2018 Kissimmee is the big town, though FL 09 was changed a little in redistricting . Originally from New Jersey, Darren Soto set up a solo law practice and made himself at home. His avocation as a singer, songwriter, and guitarist with a radio show did not hurt his election to the state senate and then to Congress. Puerto Rican and Italian, he has been a good fit for this plurality white district, but never a shoo-in.
Darren Soto won his 2022 election 53.6 – 46.4. There are no polls available for this district. We will soon see if the finances now are different from the last reporting period. On March 31, Darren Soto, with $650,000,was behind in the financial race to retired Colonel and businessman Thomas Chalifoux’s $1 million. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #585.
Florida 13
Whitney Fox resigned as head of communication for the Pinellas County Transportation Authority to run for this Congressional District west of Tampa and Tampa Bay, along the Gulf Coast. A local, she tried working in marketing in New York. When she came home, her work with the Transportation Authority was not just a job, she had become an advocate for public transportation.
Whitney Fox is running against incumbent Anna Paulina Luna who could join a club of Republican members of Congress with changing and confusing origin stories. She won in 2022 53 – 45 after defeating the Democratic version of former governor Charlie Crist 53-47 in 2020. A poll in May funded by Whitney Foxshowed Luna up by 5 points among registered voters, 51 – 46. March 31 financial reporting showed Fox behind in the money race $300,000 to $600,000. Whitney Fox has room and time to catch up. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #625
Florida 23
Jared Moskowitz was once Governor Ron DeSantis’s Director of Emergency Management. The former State Rep did a more than creditable job in the role, leading Florida’s early response to the Covid pandemic. After the governor changed his views, for instance, hiring a vaccine skeptic state surgeon general, Jared Moskowitz resigned.
In 2022, Jared Moskowitz ran for the open Democratic seat in this district which includes Boca Raton and Parkland. He won that election 51.6 – 46.8. There are no polls for this district. As for as the financial race, on March 31, Jared Moskowitz had $600,000; the Republican with some resources, businessman Robert Weinroth, had $200,000. We’ll see how things stand financially with June 30 reports being made public soon. Keep Jared Moskowitz in the lead. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #584
WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO WIN
Donate to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
As we look toward November, 2024, Help sustain the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaign. Even while the campaign is in flux, we know that whatever the resolution, resources are essential.
Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO JOE BIDEN AND KAMALA HARRIS. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/web-bfp-december-2023 See Len’s Political Note #605
