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April 24th, 2022 Len’s Letter #51 Democrats to support EVEN and Democratic tilting districts
2022 General Election
Our way of life depends on winning these districts. We must win the districts that tilt Democratic to retain a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives We can flip even and Democratic tilting districts with Republican incumbents and expand the Democratic majority.
CHALLENGERS
Here are two challengers with EVEN chances to flip Republican seats.
AK AL EVEN Al Gross See Political Note #245
Alaska’s Congressman Don Young died on March 18, 2022. As a result, Alaskans have two elections for the House of Representatives instead of one – a special election and then the general election.
April 1. Special election filing deadline
June 1 General election filing deadline
June 11 Special election primary
August 16 Special election run-off
August 16 General election primary
November 8 General election run-off
The primaries are multi-party. Voters choose one candidate. The run-offs include the top four vote getters, regardless of party. The winner is chosen by ranked voting. This will be the process both for the special election and the general election. Oddly, the voters in the multi-party August 16 general election primary will not know who won the special election ranked choice run-off on the same day.
In the first poll after the filing deadline, Sarah Palin led Al Gross 42-40 when matched against each other. There will not be, however, a head-to-head contest. Using the process prescribed by the election rules, the poll found Sarah Palin and Al Gross tied in what would be Round 1.
Al Gross (see Political Note #462) comes from a political and labor family. His father, Avrum, was once Alaska’s Attorney General. His mother, Shari, was the first Executive Director of the United Fishermen of Alaska. Al Gross is an orthopedic surgeon, but he loves commercial fishing. His Bar Mitzvah present (a year late) was a commercial fishing boat.
Al Gross can win this election even though he lost the 2020 Senate race by 13 points. Alaska’s ranked choice system is entirely new, making prediction impossible. In the run-off, andidates viewed negatively by some could be ranked fourth out of four, a ranking which could affect Sarah Palin. Help Al Gross be Alaska’s next Member of Congress – for the short term and the long term. (301)
PA 01 EVEN Ashley Ehasz
Consider the Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. He is one of the few remaining moderate Republicans. His views on the Climate Crisis and gun safety; his criticisms of Donald Trump are appealing to Democrats. Nevertheless, if Republicans get a majority, he will join his colleagues and elect Kevin McCarthy Speaker of the House.
Democratic candidate Ashley Ehasz is a great alternative. She grew up north of Bucks County in a community much poorer than Bucks. She got out, went to West Point. At the USMA, she was recognized for the quality of her work in law classes and for her study of US war crimes trials. She found that unlawful command and political interference, and undertrained DOD legal staff were obstacles to achieving justice.
She trained to fly a helicopter, piloted missions in the Middle East, commanded troops back in Fort Riley, Kansas, and served as a platoon leader, battalion logistics officer and pilot-in-command in Kuwait and Iraq.
Afterwards, she went back to school, earned an MPhil at Oxford, studied all over the world and became a full-time team member for the Council of Foreign Relations. She can be impolite and impatient about gaining policy goals like affordable housing, better health care, and jobs that pay well.
She has fought for her country. Brian Fitzpatrick, she says, has not fought well enough. He has not led in helping Americans achieve the American dream. Help Ashley Ehasz take on that task of helping Americans achieve the American dream. (246)
INCUMBENTS
If Democrats win these seats, they keep the majority. If Democrats lose couple of these seats, the five-seat majority could be gone. There is no place more important to put your money if you want a Democratic House.
MD 06 R+1 David Trone
David Trone is in this list because of a late revision in Maryland’s districts. He was a self-funder. In 2018, learning from a previous loss, he ran for MD 06, an open Democratic seat. He announced early and raised money in addition to spending his own. He won the primary with 40% of the vote and the general with 57%. In 2020, he won the election with 59% of the vote.
MD 06 had a D+16 lean. On March 25 a state judge declared the state’s redistricting plan unconstitutional. Maryland’s outgoing Republican governor made a deal. The gerrymandered MD 01 would return to being an overwhelmingly Republican district. And MD 06 would become a toss-up.
David Trone is in a new world. He is getting ready for that world. At the start of 2022, he had about $50,000 available for his campaign. He began April with $2 million. His most serious Republican opponent has $260,000. David Trone had to scramble which he did successfully, partly because he is a wealthy man.
David Trone made his money with his Beer World stores, made even more with his Total Wine and More stores. He had to take care to stay within state laws. Pennsylvania and other states limit the number of stores an individual can own. He won every test, but there were a lot of tests.
Now, he gives money away. To hospitals, especially for substance abuse programs. To the American Civil Liberties Union. His charitable contributions are consistent with his Congressional interests – health care, dealing with substance abuse, and protecting civil liberties. Help him scramble even more successfully. (268)
WA 08 EVEN Kim Schrier. See Political Note #415
In 2013, Parents Magazine named Kim Schrier Seattle’s best pediatrician. Two things transformed her into a politician. The Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, VA with Nazi symbolism in the march and President Trump’s “good people on both sides” reaction was one. The second was her Congressman’s support for repealing the Affordable Care Act. Months later, he announced his retirement and voted against repeal.
Too late. He had created a Congressional candidate. An undergraduate astrophysics major, Kim Schrier had struggled between medicine and scientific research. She decided on medicine, recalling the help she received for her childhood diabetes. She won her campaign in 2018 pointing to the Affordable Care Act. Now she is emphasizing infrastructure, a $600 million project to widen Washington’s Route 18, and the importance of addressing the climate crisis and forest fires.
Kim Schrier has to overcome a personal issue, her husband’s stock purchase and the failure to report it in a timely way to Congress. If she is to be reelected, and we need that reelection, she has to rely on the trust she has built with her constituents (a group changed slightly by redistricting) and her proposals for what should happen in the short term – support for farmers dealing with supply chain inflation and suspension of the federal gasoline tax.
Kim Schrier has helped herself. She started April with $4.9 million. Her three possible opponents have raised respectable amounts, but each of the three began April with less than $500,000. The primary winner, will get a lot of money from Republicans. Kim Schrier needs to be prepared. (249)
MN 02 D+1 Angie Craig. See Political Note #355
Angie Craig lost her first race for Congress in 2016 to Jason Lewis, a far-right radio talk show guy whose repertoire included comments like the following: “If you don’t want to own a slave, don’t. But don’t tell other people they can’t.” She defeated Lewis in 2018 by 5 points. In 2020, she defeated Tyler Kistner, an ex Marine by 2 points. Kistner is back for 2022. Angie Craig began April with $3.7 million; Kistner had $400,000.
Angie Craig has a story. Originally from Arkansas and married to a woman, she was living with her partner in Tennessee. They wanted to adopt a child but were not allowed as a couple. One of them could adopt. The child’s mother initially supported the adoption, important because Tennessee considers the birth mother’s preference. After the birth mother’s homophobic parents objected and pressured their daughter, the birth mother objected to the adoption. Then she changed her mind and supported the adoption. Angie Craig and her partner won the law suit.
After that excruciating experience, time and distance helped. They moved to London, then to Minnesota. Minnesota has been a great place for Angie Craig. She was a success in business and in politics. Initially working as a journalist, she became an executive at St. Jude Medical in charge of internal and external communications.
Angie Craig is known in Congress, known for her expertise in medical technology and hospitals rather than for her marriage and adoption. In Congress, she may co-chair the LGBT Equality Caucus and be a member of the Progressive Caucus, but her work is done on the Agriculture Committee and the Energy and Commerce committee’s subcommittees on technology, on consumer protection, and on health.
Angie Craig is an asset for Minnesota and for us all. We need her to stay in Congress. Don’t be fooled by the money she has. In 2020, Democrats had raised a lot of money and were ahead in the polls. The Republicans spent an enormous amount of money late and the polls turned around. Help Angie Craig be prepared for this campaign. (345)
AZ 04 D+1 Greg Stanton See Political Note #107
In 2017, Greg Stanton’s second term as Mayor of Phoenix, the 5th largest city in the US, was coming to a term-limited close. Arizona was a Republican state with a Republican Governor and two Republican Senators. What should he do?
In October, 2017, Republican Sen. Jeff Flake announced he would not run for reelection – as a never Trumper, he would not have been renominated. In September, 2017 Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema had announced she would run for the Senate.
Greg Stanton decided. He would run for Kyrsten Sinema’s seat in Congress. Arizona 09 was safely Democratic. He won in 2018 and again in 2020 by 22 points. There are, however, surprises in life.
The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission had reorganized districts after the 2010 census. By 2020, their configuration of Arizona’s nine districts had led to a 5-4 Democratic majority delegation. The Independent Redistricting Commission more than reversed that for 2022. Even though Arizona has become more Democratic, the Commission created 6 districts that lean Republican (two of them by +7) and 3 districts that tilt or lean Democratic (including Greg Stanton’s D+1 AZ 04).
Greg Stanton had been a thoroughly successful mayor. In 2015, Governing magazine named him public official of the year. He had expanded light rail, bike lanes, and sidewalks, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. He was on his way to eliminating the sales tax on food, was a leader on LGBT issues and in creating technology jobs. No wonder he was elected by 22 points in a district with a D+15 lean.
In Congress, he continued his commitments to civil rights. Primarily, though, he worked to cultivate his district and to advocate for Arizona. If Greg Stanton were to lose, Arizona could have a 9-person delegation with only 2 Democrats. Don’t let that happen. Greg Stanton started with $2.4 million available and needs to raise more. His two main competitors hover around $500,000. Whoever gets the nomination will get a lot of Republican money after the primary. (330)
VA 07 D+2 Abigail Spanberger. See Political Note #438
Abigail Spanberger is a moderate Democrat. She has no love for the Republicans. In her first campaign, she was the victim of Republican dirty tricks. A former postal inspector, the Republicans got a copy of her employment records. A clerk’s error, the post office said and the clerk made the same error for three other people. The post office never produced the name of the clerk or the names of the other three people.
Armed with those records, the Republicans claimed she had previously taught at a Saudi-connected Muslim school run by terrorists. The CIA was not convinced. They hired her after her stint as a postal inspector. Nor was the VA 07 electorate convinced. Abigail Spanberger was elected in 2018 by two points, elected again in 2020 by 2 points. Redistricting has helped her a little. Previously, her district leaned Republican R+5.
Abigail Spanberger expressed concern about the expansive programs President Biden proposed, saying that “Nobody elected him to be FDR, they elected him to be normal and stop the chaos.” Working with other Members of Congress with national security backgrounds, she normalized plans for Donald Trump’s impeachment. She supports some big Democratic proposals. In particular, she is concerned about the climate crisis. She praised Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal as a “bold compilation of new ideas” but criticized it for including proposals unrelated to climate.
We need electable moderate Democrats from districts like VA 07. Help Abigail Spanberger get reelected. She began April with $3.9 million. Her possible opponents each had less than $500,000, but the primary winner will get much more from the Republicans later in the campaign. (275)
NV 03 D+2 Susie Lee See Political Note #356
Susie Lee was a local philanthropist. Had someone predicted that when she was in school, it would have been laughable. She grew up in Canton, Ohio, where male athletics were valued. Canton is the home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Susie Lee was one of eight kids. Her dad was a steelworker; her mom was at home. Life got tougher when her dad was laid off at age 57. Susie Lee was smart and athletic. A swimmer, she went to Carnegie-Mellon where she swam on the college team. After graduation, she worked on water resource issues in Massachusetts. Three years later, she got a job working for the mayor of Las Vegas, a city in the desert with water issues.
In Las Vegas, Susie Lee met and married a rich man. They stayed married for 21 years. Dan Lee, currently the CEO of Full House Resorts, was even then a leading figure in Nevada’s gambling industry. Susie Lee’s philanthropies targeted helping schools and others keep kids out of trouble. In 2018, she ran for Congress and won, replacing Jacky Rosen who was elected US Senator.
In Congress Susie Lee joined the Problems Solvers Caucus, Republicans and Democrats who believed they could find common ground and appeal to members of both parties. Common ground has been hard to find in the House of Representatives.
After her husband’s companies were awarded two PPP loans, she was criticized for working to make the gambling industry eligible for PPP loans, Her focus has been on helping her regular constituents – helping people get unemployment benefits they deserve; helping a casino unconnected to her now ex-husband get a PPP loan.
Susie Lee began April with $2.1 Million. Her probable opponent had $450,000. That is not enough of a lead in the money race considering the resources the Republicans will bring to bear later in the race. A Democratic House depends on electing Democrats in these tilt Democratic districts. Help her in this campaign, for her sake and our own. (342)
