Len’s Political Note #809 The Four Florida Districts Under Siege

May 4th, 2026                          Len’s Political Note #809 The Four Florida Districts Under Siege

2026                                              Primary and General Election

 We live in the shadow of the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v Callais decision which apparently prohibits the creation of congressional and other districts based on race.  The corrective is to win a sufficient Congressional majority to prohibit the creation of congressional districts based on partisan advantage.

Now we need to stay focused on 2026.  Trump’s deep unpopularity assists Democrats in gaining control of the House of Representatives.  Nothing is automatic.  While almost all Republican Members of Congress have followed Trump with barely a question, some Republican Members of Congress are popular enough not to be affected by Trump’s unpopularity.

Let’s s look first at whether we can protect the four Democratic Members of Congress who Governor Ron DeSantis and Florida Republican state legislators have targeted to change the Florida Congressional delegation from the current 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats to 24 Republicans and 4 Democrats through mid-decade redistricting.

As in the rest of the country, Democrats in Florida performed better in 2025 than in past elections.  Throughout the country, a not atypical Democratic performance was 13 points better than might have been expected. Call that an overperformance of 13 points.  While there is no guarantee that Democrats will do 13 points better than expected in a general election when the make-up of the voters is different from that of a special, absent anything else hopeful, that is what I am working with.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball projects election results.  For 2026, that organization examined what the Florida Congressional election results would have been if the 2024 elections occurred in districts with the 2026 map.  Similarly, that organizations identified what the Congressional District Presidential election results would have been in 2016, 2020, and 2024 if the districts were had been based on the 2026 map.  Consider what the vote would have been in the districts that each of the four targeted Democratic Members of Congress.  And then consider what would happen in 2026 if the Democrats have a 13 point overperformance .and the implication of such a Democratic overperformance for 2026.

I do this less as a genuine prediction and more as a basis for telling you where you should put your money.

Below, I will begin with the Democratic incumbents.  They are the ones that Governor of Florida and the legislators who are following his direction are targeting.  Republican incumbents may suffer some consequences of the district changes. In the case of the Democratic incumbents and the Republican incumbents (which I will address with Len’s Political Note #810), I have put them in order of where donations should go.

 

Democrats who are targeted by the creation of these newly gerrymandered districts.

  1. Florida 14 Kathy Castor is the incumbent in this Tampa area district. Her dad was a county judge; her mom was the Florida Education Commissioner and then President of the University of South Florida. Kathy Castor went to Emory College and Florida State Law School after which she practiced administrative law. After being elected and serving as a County Commissioner, she was elected to Congress in 2006. In Congress, she has served as chair of the Select Committee on the Climate Crisis.  She has been a supporter of Head Start and of gun safety.  She finished the first quarter of 2026 with $700,000 on hand.  None of the Republicans had $100,000.  After redistricting, the Republican candidates, whether among the current ones or new ones, will raise more.  Kathy Castor will need to raise a lot more.  She can foil the Republicans plans and win this election.
    1. Florida 14 was made 23 points less Democratic with the new Congressional map. Before redistricting, Florida 14 projected to be +12 Democratic. Redistricting made it -11 points Democratic. If those three presidential elections were calculated for what makes up the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been an 8 point Republican win.
      1. If Kathy Castor overperformed by 13 points compared to that -11 projection, she would win the 2026 election by 2 points.
      2. If Kathy Castor overperformed by 13 points compared to the average presidential count for those three years she would win the 2026 election by 5 points.
    2. Help Kathy Castor Keep her ahead in the financial race. DONATE TO HER CAMPAIGN.  She says she will stay and fight.

  1. Florida 09. Darren Soto is the incumbent of this district in the Orlando area. He is originally from New Jersey, His dad was Puerto Rican, his mom Italian American. Darren Soto went to Rutgers and then to George Washington for Law School.  He has never been just a politician.  He has also been a musician who used to have a radio music program.  As a politician, he has been in touch with his constituents. FL 09 had close to a majority of Puerto Ricans before the 2026 redistricting.  In addition to bringing resources to the district, he has been a voice for humane treatment of the undocumented.  In 2024, he defeated Republican Thomas Chalifoux 55 to 43.  Chalifoux is a retired army colonel who made millions in business.  He put up $2 million of his own money in 2024 and appears to have done the same for 2026.  He completed the first quarter of 2026 with $2.1 million cash on hand — well ahead of Darren Soto ‘s $800,000.  Darren Soto can win this race, can keep this seat Democratic even though the district has been chopped up and has fewer Puerto Ricans.    Florida is worth fighting for. Darren Soto has announced he is up for the fight.
    1. Florida 09 was made 25 points less Democratic with the new Congressional map. Before redistricting Florida 09 projected to be +10 Democratic. Redistricting made it -15 points Democratic. If those three presidential elections were calculated for what makes up the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been a 9-point Republican win.
      1. If Darren Soto overperformed by 13 points compared to that -15 projection, he would lose the 2026 election by 2 points.
      2. If Darren Soto overperformed by 13 points compared to the average presidential count for those three years he would win the 2026 election by 4 points.
    2. Help Darren Soto Help him gain in the financial race. DONATE TO HIS CAMPAIGN.  He says he will stay and fight.

 

  1. Florida 22. Lois Frankel is the incumbent in what has been a southeast coastal district north of Boca Raton.  She was born in New York City, got her BA from Boston University, and her JD from Georgetown.  She moved to Florida in 1974.  Elected to the Florida House of Representatives, she served as minority leader and later as Mayor of West Palm Beach before being elected to Congress in 2012.  She supported Trump’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem and also supported his impeachment. In Congress, she has supported gun safety and has served on the Appropriations committee.  She completed the first quarter of 2026 with $1.5 million available for her campaign.  But her probable opponent, Dr. Herbert Wertheim had $2.5 million.  An 86-year-old ophthalmologist and a businessman, his net worth is estimated at $4 billion. He has given money away – distinctively to Florida International University which is the home of the Herbert Wertheim School of Medicine.  Lois Frankel will not raise as much money as Dr. Wertheim can obtain by reaching into his pocket for.  But with enough resources, she can keep the doctor away from Congress.  Keep Lois Frankel in Congress.
    1. Florida 22 was made 17 points less Democratic with the new Congressional map. Before redistricting Florida 22 projected to be +12 Democratic. Redistricting made it -5 points Democratic. If those three presidential elections were calculated for what makes up the 2026 congressional map, the average result would have been a tie.
      1. If Lois Frankel overperformed by 13 points compared to that -5 projection, she would win the 2026 election by 8 points.
      2. If Lois Frankel overperformed by 13 points compared to the average presidential count for those three years she would win the 2026 election by 13 points.
    2. Help Lois Frankel Help her stay within reach in the financial race. DONATE TO HER CAMPAIGN. She has announced her plan to run for reelection to Florida 22.

  1. Florida 25. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is the incumbent. She grew up in Forest Hills Queens, but did not go to high school with Simon and Garfunkel.  Her parents moved the family to Long Island. From Long Island, she went to the University of Florida to get her BA and MA. After serving as an aide to Peter Deutsch, when he left the state legislature and ran for Congress, she ran successfully for his seat. After eight years, she ran for the state Senate and then for congress to replace Peter Deutsch when he ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate.   An effective fund raiser and a leader among her peers, she has been a member of the Democratic Leadership and the Appropriations Committee.  She was a favorite of Nancy Pelosi’s and an advocate for Hillary Clinton.  With $2.5 million cash in hand at the end of the first quarter of 2026, she is prepared for this campaign. Neither of her likely Republican opponents have more than $800,000.  As one of the four Republican targets, she will need every dollar she can raise.  Help Debbie Wasserman Schultz protect herself and do the same for the other targeted Democrats.

Anticipating a 13 point overperformance may be too optimistic.  But well-funded and familiar Democrats can do well despite the redistricting – especially in a national Democratic climate.  For Democrats,  Stability, effective campaigning, and effective fund raising is the best plan for winning these Florida elections.