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August 30th , 2024 Len’s Political Note #666 Katrina Christiansen North Dakota Senator
2024 General Election
I do not suggest that Katrina Christiansen is likely to be elected Senator from North Dakota. In 2022, she lost to Senator John Hoeven 56.4 to 25. Independent Rick Becker picked up 18.5% of the vote. She might do better in 2024 if there is no independent candidate. But North Dakota is a Republican state. Katrina Christiansen is not going to do that much better. This is not to say that a Democrat could never win election to the US Senate from North Dakota. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp was elected to the Senate in 2012.
Katrina Christiansen is an assistant professor of engineering at the University of Jamestown, a private, Christian university of 1,300 students located in Jamestown. Not a selective school, at admits 92% of those who apply. Moderately rigorous, 55% of those students who are admitted graduate. Katrina Christiansen is originally from Nebraska. Her BA from the University of Nebraska is in biological engineering. Her master’s thesis was on valued added processing for sorghum; her doctorate from Iowa State was about biofuel production methods. Before turning to the academic world, she worked in an ethanol producing plant.
Katrina Christiansen thinks like an engineer. Failure, as with her previous run for office, is an opportunity to recorrect and “minimize failure mode hazards.” Her political goals include improving the Affordable Care Act, making the wealthy pay their share of taxes, lowering taxes for everyone else, and protecting Medicare and social security. She includes among her goals protecting a woman’s right to choose and taking on Big Ag. She explains that farmers do most of the work while the four big agricultural companies increase prices benefiting themselves, not the farmers.
It may be unlikely that Kristina Christiansen will make Kevin Cramer a one term Senator, but she could do it. She may have learned enough from her previous experience to correct her mistakes. One correction is to run against Kevin Cramer.
Kevin Cramer has been a politician his entire working life. Born in North Dakota, he got his BA from Concordia in Minnesota. After graduating from college, he campaigned for a Republican-endorsed tax commissioner and then for a Republican candidate for the US Senate who lost to a Democrat. Those efforts apparently earned him an appointment as Chair of the North Dakota Republican Party. After two years, the Republican governor appointed him State Director of Tourism. He spent four years enticing people to see the confluence of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, the Fort Union Trading Post Historic Site, and the Scandinavian Heritage Center. He was appointed Economic Director for the state, stayed for three years, and, in 2000, was appointed executive director of the Harold Schafer Leadership Foundation. Housed at the University of St. Mary, where Cramer picked up a Master’s degree in leadership in 2003, the Foundation sought to connect emerging leaders from the University with community business leaders. The Foundation was endowed by entrepreneur Harold Schafer, who sold Americans Glass Wax, Snowy Bleach, and Mr. Bubbles for bubble baths.
In 2003, Governor (now Senator) John Hoeven appointed Kevin Cramer as a Public Service Commissioner. He was elected to the role in 2004 and again in 2010. The Commission was not his ambition. He ran and lost for Congress in 1996 and 1998 to a Democrat and in 2010, when his principal argument was opposition to the Affordable Care Act, to a Republican in the primary. A less persistent man would have given up.
For Kevin Cramer, the fourth time was the charm. He won the primary and the election with the support of conservative organizations like Club for Growth. In 2012 and 2014, he earned 55% of the vote. He earned a much bigger majority in the 2016 election, running against a Native American activist – Chase Iron Eyes.
Kevin Cramer earned his credentials as an opponent of abortion, an opponent of same sex marriage (he called homosexuality a perversion), a rejector of the existence of climate change, and an advocate for reductions in food stamps. He blamed Islamic extremists for mass shootings, saw no need for gun control, voted to repeal the estate tax, and particularly opposed language in the Violence Against Women Act which would allow native courts to prosecute non-tribal members. He also made a friend of Donald Trump.
Donald Trump told Cramer that he, and only he, could defeat Senator Heidi Heitkamp in 2018 and persuaded him to run for the US Senate. Kevin Cramer won that race, though with less support from Trump than he had expected. In the Senate, Cramer was the only Senator to vote against recognizing the Armenian genocide – supporting Friend of Erdogan President Donald Trump in his opposition to a motion that required unanimous consent for consideration in the Senate.
Frustrated on differences with the House of Representatives, Cramer called Nancy Pelosi a “moron.” After the 2020 election, Cramer initially supported Trump’s claim of fraud, but retreated. He later supported former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and then retiring North Dakota governor Don Burgum for the 2024 Republican nomination for president before finally lining up to endorse Donald Trump.
Whether serving on a national level created a strain on his family or there was something else, some of Kevin Cramer’s children have proven to be deeply troubled. Look it up yourself. I have written enough about that.
We’ll see if Katrina Christiansen can organize a campaign against an extremist Republican Senator who will have lukewarm support from Donald Trump, at a time when Trump himself is losing ground to the energetic ticket led by Vice President Kamala Harris. A poll in June found Joe Biden’s approval rate in North Dakota was 26%. The poll found that same 26% of the voters wanted to block Biden’s agenda. A more recent Democratic funded poll found Katrina Christiansen trailing Kevin Cramer 38 to 51. Kevin Cramer has taken care of business financially. He had $3.2 million on June 30 to Katrina Christiansen’s $200,000. If you can afford it, help her out. DONATE. Kevin Cramer deserves some opposition.
SENATE RACES AROUND THE COUNTRY (This piece is an opportunity to look at the state of Democrats in their fight to keep a majority in the Senate>).
The vulnerable
Montana
If there is a Democratic incumbent Senator who is the underdog, Jon Tester is it. He trails in two of three August polls, one of them by 8 points. Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term, reminding his constituents that he is the only working farmer in the Senate, showing his constituents his hand missing the three fingers he lost working in his dad’s farm’s butcher shop. A moderate Democrat in a state that votes overwhelmingly Republican, he has distanced himself from Kamala Harris and others from either coast. His opponent, Tim Sheehy, grew up wealthy in Michigan, went to the Naval Academy, served as a Navy SEAL, received multiple combat injuries, and left the service to be a philanthropist and to found military-oriented businesses in Montana. In an event that would have derailed most candidates, Sheehy claimed an embedded bullet from a state park accident was actually from a military injury, then claimed he had lied to the SEALs about the bullet as an explanation for why it was not on his record. Another complexity that could kill a campaign, but has not killed Sheehy’s is his differing stories about leaving the military. Was he medically discharged as he says on the campaign trail? Or did he leave, as he said in his book, out of distaste for military politics?
Jon Tester needs whatever help you can give him. As with all candidates running against the wealthy, Jon Tester’s June 30 financial lead of $10.7 million to Sheehy’s $3.3 million is misleading. Sheehy has access to his own pockets, to his friends’ pockets, to semi-secret PACs for whatever he needs. DONATE to Jon Tester. VOLUNTEER. Do what you can do. Double what you can do. We need Jon Tester in the Senate.
Ohio
Democratic Incumbent Sherrod Brown is seeking his fourth term as Senator from Ohio. With the help of his gravelly voice, he has honed a blue-collar personality and voting record. Mid-August and late July polls showed Sherrod Brown leading former car dealer, now crypto investor, Bernie Moreno – the son of a high Colombian official and doctor who escaped a civil war to Florida. The leads in the polls were modest – 4 or 5 points. On June 30, Sherrod Brown led the financial race $10.7 million to $4.5 million. Moreno’s crypto friends could make up the difference in a day or two. Because Ohio votes so consistently Republican, Sherrod Brown is among the Democrats most vulnerable incumbent Senators. Help him. DONATE. VOLUNTEER
Nevada
In this Trump-leaning state, incumbent Jacky Rosen, seeking her second term as Senator, has led in two recent polls by modest 3 and 5 points and by a huge 18 point margin worthy of being ignored. Practical and non-ideological, this former synagogue president and favorite of Harry Reid is faced with an adversary, Sam Brown, who was severely burned while in the military in Iraq, an adversary whose wife speaks about her regret for having had an abortion. Jacky Rosen’s June 30 financial lead of $9.5 million to $3.1 million may be illusory because Brown’s campaign has been adopted by Nevada’s second wealthiest billionaire. She needs your help to stay ahead. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Democratic Senators and candidates defending Democratic seats who are a little less vulnerable
Michigan (the incumbent is retiring)
Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin has been part of a group of recent Democratic members of Congress with a history in national security. Granddaughter of the owner of Hygrade Meats (and Ballpark Franks), she decided to join the CIA after the 9/11 attack. She met her husband, a helicopter pilot while both were serving their country. She returned to civilian life as an advisor in Washington before retreating to their family “farm” where she and her husband decided on her candidacy for Congress. Her opponent is former Congressman Michael Rogers, an FBI agent before he ran for Congress. During his Florida retirement, he served as a commentator and executive producer for CNN. In four polls in August, she averaged a 6 point lead. Her July 17 $8.7 million to $2.5 million lead may be close to a genuine representation of where the two candidates stand financially. It would, nevertheless, be a mistake to be comfortable with Elissa Slotkin’s lead. DONATE. VOLUNTEER. Keep this seat Democratic.
Arizona (the incumbent is not running for reelection)
Congressman Ruben Gallego comes from a heavily Democratic district and is one of the more progressive candidates defending a Senate seat. A Republican-funded poll found him even with former Fox journalist Kari Lake. She is a skeptic about Trump’s loss in 2020 and her own loss in the Arizona governor’s race in 2022. Three neutrally funded polls in August showed. him with leads that average 8 points. Ruben Gallego’s June 30 financial lead of $8 million to $2 million is probably an accurate representation of the state of the race. Complacency kills campaigns. Make no assumptions about this race. Help Ruben Gallego finish strong. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Pennsylvania
Incumbent Bob Casey Jr, son of a former Pennsylvania governor who was the leader of anti-abortion Democrats nationally, long ago moved away from his early conservatism on guns and abortion. He is running for his fourth term in the US Senate. In the seven polls of this race in the first half of August, Bob Casey Jrled former Connecticut-based Hedge fund CEO David McCormick by double digits in four of them, by mid-range single digits in the other three. Their virtual June 30 financial tie at $8.3 million will mislead you if you forget that McCormick led one of the largest hedge funds in the country and can produce virtually unlimited funds from his own pocket if he chooses. Keep Bob Casey Jr in the lead. DONATE. VOLUNTEER
Wisconsin
Despite being nearly evenly divided politically, Wisconsin keeps electing Tammy Baldwin, a progressive, Lesbian Senator. She is running for a third term in the US Senate and is leading California based media magnate Eric Hovde by a consistent 7, 8, or 9 points. She is leading him in the financial race, too — $6.3 million to $3.1 million on July 24, but Hovde has all the money he needs easily accessible if he wants to reach for it. Keep Tammy Baldwin in the lead. DONATE. VOLUNTEER
Races Democrats could flip. If Democrats lose Montana, they lose the Senate unless they can flip a Republican seat.
Nebraska
Dan Osborn is a labor leader running as an independent. He has rejected endorsement by the Democrats, but raises money through Act Blue and, unless he figured out a way to caucus with no one, would caucus with the Democrats if elected. Nebraska Democrats do have a candidate. The Republican incumbent, Deb Fischer, is sufficiently undistinguished that a November, 2023 poll, when Dan Osborn was a complete political unknown, showed him leading her by 2 points. Recent polls that he has funded show him even with the incumbent or behind by 2 points. There are no neutral polls. Her poll probably can be discounted. It showed her leading by 26 points. On June 30, she had $3 million to his $700,000. You can help. He could shock American politics. DONATE. VOLUNTEER.
Florida
Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, from a family that immigrated from Ecuador and made a career of raising funds for non-profits, is creeping close to incumbent Rick Scott. Scott has not recovered from the blunder of calling for mandatory Congressional votes to renew Medicare and Social Security every five years. In two of three polls from the very end of July to mid-August, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has been within 4 points of Scott. As of July 31, she was actually leading in the financial race $4.4 million to $3.9 million. That lead is misleading. $4 million is not enough for the home stretch in the third largest state in the country while running against an incumbent billionaire who can reach into his pocket for millions. Help Debbie Mucarsel-Powell flip this seat. DONATE. VOLUNTEER
Texas
Republican funded polls find incumbent Ted Cruz leading by 8 or 10 points. One relatively recent Republican funded poll showed Cruz leading by 3. Internal polls by Congressman Colin Allred, not rigorous enough to get listed by the 538 website, agree with that poll giving Cruz a 3 point lead. On October 30, Republican Ted Cruz had a small lead in the financial race — $12.7 million to $10.5 million. Both candidates have the kind of funds needed for the home stretch in the second largest state in the country. Colin Allred is getting close to defeating the most disliked member of the Senate and becoming the first Black Senator from Texas at the same time. DONATE. VOLUNTEER. Get this done.
Missouri
Lucas Kunce
If there is a US Senator who qualifies for the term “weird” the Republican incumbent Josh Hawley is the one. Josh Hawley is obsessed with masculinity. He has written a book on the topic. Meanwhile, foreign affairs expert and former marine Lucas Kunce makes hay by mocking Hawley for being a coward (having encouraged the January 6 insurrectionists, Hawley is seen on film running away from them). There has not been a poll for this race since American politics was turned upside down by Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race. Lucas Kunce is competitive in the financial race with $4.2 million available as of July 17 while Hawley had $5.7 million. Support Lucas Kunce. DONATE. VOLUNTEER
WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO WIN
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
We have a phenomenon. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are on a roll. They are edging Trump and Vance in the polls and are outpacing them in enthusiasm. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO KAMALA HARRIS and TIM WALZ. VOLUNTEER.
