Are Special Elections a sign for the future? They were in 2017 and 2018. In 2019. Special elections began badly for Democrats. A Minnesota state Senate seat was flipped from Democrat to Republican when the Senator left to work for the new Governor. Two Republicans were finalists for a Texas House seat. This was a Republican seat, but the two Republicans were ahead of the Democrats by a margin that was 20 points higher than the 2016 presidential election margin . Two open Democratic Connecticut House seats were flipped at the end of February — seats vacated, as in Minnesota, so the incumbents could work for the new Democratic Governor.
Democrats did win some special elections. There was a Virginia open Democratic House seat victory. The Democrat won with 60% of the vote, matching Barack Obama’s percent in 2012. The result was 5 points lower than Hillary Clinton’s margin in 2016 and 9 points lower than the elected Delegate’s margin in 2017. Not so good.
Republicans flipped an open Kentucky seat defeating Democrat Daniel Pugh 53-47; one of the few remaining southern seats filled by a very conservative Democrat. Hillary lost the district by 63 points. Even so, Republicans overperform. The Republican was elected with 84% of the votes, double digits more than either Trump or Romney
As March ground on, the Democratic situation stabilized. In the Pennsylvania House, Bridget Malloy Kosierowski won an open Democratic seat in a district won by Trump and by Obama. Movita Johnson-Harrell won an open Democratic seat to become the first Muslim legislator in Pennsylvania. In Texas, Democrat Ray Lopez retained a seat that Republicans had hopes for. In Maine, Joe Perry won a House seat by nearly 30 points. Solomon Osborne and Ronnie Crudup won open Democratic seats in Mississippi in routine victories.
March ended better than stabilized. Tina Belge lost a South Carolina state Senate seat by 12 points. Better than Hillary Clinton’s 31 points loss or Barack Obama’s 26 points loss. That’s the kind of positive we saw in 2018.